Transcript: Nightly Business Report – August 30, 2019

ANNOUNCER:  This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Bill Griffeth and Sue Herera.  

BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  September to remember? August was one to forget as investors figure out their best strategy for the weeks and months ahead.  

On the front line. The country`s busiest port is even busier just days
ahead of the implementation of new tariffs on Chinese imports.  

And turning your closet into cash.  One company is setting out to reinvent
the storage industry, connecting people who have extra space with those who have extra stuff.  

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, August 30th.  

And we bid you a good evening, everybody, and welcome.  Sue is off tonight.  

August is in the books now and long-term investors are probably just happy to move on.  It was the second worst month of the year for the markets.  Volatility came roaring back.  Trade tensions and recession signals from the bond market headline the period, and after four weeks of big ups and downs, investors today were able to catch their breath a bit as we head
into the holiday weekend.  

The Dow rose 41 points today to close at 26,403.  The Nasdaq was down 10.  
The S&P added just one.  And for the month, all of the major averages were

So what will September bring?  

Mike Santoli starts us off tonight from the New York Stock Exchange.  


MIKE SANTOLI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  The month of August has lived up to its reputation for volatility, and now comes September, which has similarly tended to be a challenging month for stocks.  

Over the past 90 years, September has been the weakest month for stock
market returns, but the S&P 500 down slightly more than half of all years
and the average return from all years, a negative 1 percent.  This
certainly implies seasonal portions present a headwind for a market that
pulled back from the late July peak.  But it`s important to recognize,
historical calendar patterns are rarely a decisive factor for market

More central for investors are a familiar set of issues, relentless
downward pressure on bond yields, growing questions about whether the trade war is snuffing out global growth and a stock market that has retained most of the gains for the year despite corporate profits riding near the flat line.  Set against the cloudy growth and trade outlook, bulls will notice that equity valuations has dipped below five-year average, based on
forecast earnings, and historic lows on bond yields make stocks look
relatively inexpensive all else being equal.  

An investor sentiment has turned quite cautious, based on investor surveys, flows out of stock funds, and intense demand for down side protection in recent week goes.  

Wall Street is getting itself clenched up against growth threat and
confidence has waned in central bank`s ability to help.  So, can the
Federal Reserve do anything to ease investor fears and support expansion
for the rate cut in a few weeks?  That is one of the many urgent questions
that lie ahead in September.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Mike Santoli at the New York Stock


GRIFFETH:  Let`s turn to Luke Lloyd now for a look ahead and how you might want to position your portfolio heading into this new month.  He is an investment strategist at Strategic Wealth Partners.  

Luke, good to see you.  Thanks for joining us tonight.  


GRIFFETH:  What we saw in August was pretty much a continuation of what we`ve seen in previous months where defensive sectors were the
outperformers as Wall Street just sort of rushes to the safety of those
sectors, especially the bond market as well.  

What are you expectations?  Do you see the trend continuing into September?  

LLOYD:  Right.  So the whole month of august was a very volatile month like you said, and there`s a couple of reasons for that.  Trump has been
tweeting a lot.  Jay Powell had the meeting where they spoke and the G7

So, really, we really expect the volatility to stay because, first of all,
there`s weak international data right now and the U.S./China trade war is
still going on.  That being said, we think it`s going to stick around as
well.  And I know U.S. elections are still about a year out, but at the
same time, we still think with all of that lingering around there still
will be volatility in the markets.  

GRIFFETH:  So, I see.  You`re saying get defensive here, utilities, REITs,
those sensitive sectors that benefitted from the record low interest rates.  
But at some point when does it become what we would call a crowded trade and not as much safety?  What do you think?  

LLOYD:  Well, I think we are actually pretty close to that.  Utilities,
REITs, staples, they are all expensive from a valuation standpoint.  People
are trying to chase yield.  

What we`re trying to do is actually position ourselves defensively in other
sectors like tech.  You know, for example, we really like software over
semis.  Software provides reoccurring revenues and they provide high
margins, so they provide a lot of profit.  So, in regards to hardware like
semiconductors, they actually provide low margins, and they`re all
productivity and producing.  

And we don`t have producing in a recessionary scenario.  It can typically
provide some type of back draw and we like software over semis.  

GRIFFETH:  Right.  

LLOYD:  So, I mean, you really get defensive in other individual sectors
maybe other than REITs, staples and utilities.  

GRIFFETH:  The Fed, clearly, there`s a debate going on even among the bank presidents and the governors about whether they should, in fact, cut rates.  You had the former president of the New York Fed with that controversial op-ed piece this week saying they shouldn`t cut rates, among others who said the same thing.  

What are your expectations from the Fed?  What if they don`t cut this time

LLOYD:  So they actually have a meeting on September 18th, and we`re really going to be eyeing that closely.  The market right now is pricing 100
percent probability of at least a 20 — a quarter of a percent cut in the
interest rate.  


LLOYD:  So that being said, we think the Federal Reserve is going to
maintain in line with expectations, because we really don`t think they`re
going to over-deliver or under-deliver.  So, we really think they will
maintain that posture and deliver what the market expects.  

GRIFFETH:  All right.  Well, here we go.  We`ll see what happens.  Luke
Lloyd with Strategic Wealth Partners — again, thanks for joining us

LLOYD:  Thanks for having me.  

GRIFFETH:  Those new tariffs are set to kick in on Chinese imports this
weekend, and Chinese officials are still hoping that the U.S. will call
them off.  The concern among investor, as you know, is that the trade
dispute will intensify further and hurt economies around the world.  

Eunice Yoon has more from Beijing tonight.


EUNICE YOON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Two days until new tariffs kick in, on Sunday a little after midnight Eastern Standard Time, the U.S. will impose a tariff on $125 billion of Chinese goods.  China will add an extra 5 percent to 10 percent tax on $75 billion dollars of goods,
including soy beans.  

The Foreign Ministry said today it hoped that the U.S. would show its
sincerity, with real action, which is China`s way of urging the U.S. to
call off the tariffs.  The ministry also said the trade teams have been
maintaining effective communication.  

Meanwhile, the Yuan is headed for first its worst month since 1994 and
there are signs authorities here are getting nervous about capital flight.  
The Nikkei newspapers are reporting regulators have put more restrictions
on banks for Yuan currency conversions and on real estate developers`
access to foreign currency bonds.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon in Beijing.  


GRIFFETH:  And many of the items affected by the new tariffs are consumer goods, things like smart watches, televisions and shoes.  A large portion of those goods come into the U.S. through the port of Los Angeles.  

Jane Wells is there at the nation`s busiest port to survey the scene.  


JANE WELLS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  This really is America`s gateway to Asia, and I want to show you what we have going on here at the port of Los Angeles.  This ship came in from China, but this
ship is in from Korea, and that ship over there is in from Vietnam.  So you
are seeing how the supply chain the changing.

But we are starting to see another issue here.  So many containers are
coming in as retailers tried to front load merchandise for the holidays
ahead of the new tariffs that the port is starting to get clogged like it
was a year ago when they were trying to beat the first set of tariffs.  
Warehouse space in southern California, is now the vacancy rate is below 2
percent.  They`re going to run out of space to put everything.  

But here is why they did this.  When the president first announced the new
set of tariffs, retailers tried to get everything in they could before the
holidays.  Think of the door buster TVs for Black Friday.  

Well, in an 11-day period here this month, Steve Ferreira of Ocean Audit
said 260,000 TVs from China got into this port and the port of Long Beach
next door.  He called it a surprising surge.  

And even though the president later delayed the tariffs on TVs until
December, well, these ships were already at sea.  But the port is also
telling us that unless things change, starting Sunday, 98 percent of the
stuff coming in from China is going to be tariffed.  We are talking $164
billion worth of goods.  

And the fastest growing container traffic here right now are empties,
because we`re still importing stuff from China.  The number of containers
coming in full and leaving empty is up 20 percent in a year.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jane Wells at the port of Los Angeles in San Pedro.  


GRIFFETH:  A new report this morning pointed to a big dip in consumer
sentiment.  The University of Michigan surveyed — recorded its biggest
monthly drop since 2012.  It cited increased uncertainty about the outlook
for the economy for the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.  

Time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and Downgrades”.  

We begin with shares of Ulta.  They were downgraded by a number of firms today, including Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) which cut the rating on the stock to market perform from out perform.  The analyst cited the highly
competitive cosmetics industry right now and slowing trends.  

Remember, last night, Ulta reported disappointing earnings and lowered
guidance for the rest of the year.  Wells Fargo`s new price target is $235,
but the stock today lost 30 percent of its value, now to $237.73.  

Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) was upgraded to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank.  The analyst says that the company`s declining margins are now reflected in its guidance and that price target is now $14.  The stock rose 1 percent today to $14.62.  

Still ahead, why Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), the streaming powerhouse, is
debuting some of its original movies in theaters first.  


GRIFFETH:  Hurricane Dorian continues to strengthen as it heads towards
Florida.  It is expected to make landfall late Monday or early Tuesday, and
if it stays on its current course, it could potentially be the strongest
hurricane to strike Florida`s east coast since Andrew back in 1992.  
Analysts say that the damage to crops in the region could be significant,
specifically citrus, sugarcane and peanut production.  

Earlier this week, we told you about a proposal that Purdue Pharma was
pursuing to settle opioid claims.  Well, today, “The Wall Street Journal”
said that it is getting a mixed reaction from various states.  Some
attorneys general say that the cash portion of that offer is not high
enough.  The Sackler family which owns Purdue Pharma has offered between $10 billion and $12 billion over a number of years.  

Separately, Allergan (NYSE:AGN) confirmed today it is planning to pay $5
million to get out of an upcoming federal opioid trial in October.  That
settlement is between the drugmaker and two Ohio counties.  More than a
dozen other companies though remain as defendants in that case.  

United Airlines said today it plans to resume flying its 737 MAX planes
just in time for the busy holiday travel rush.  The airlines new date to
bring that plane back this is now December 19th, provided that the FAA says the MAX has been fixed and is safe to fly.  

Phil LeBeau has details.  


PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  United`s move pushing back the return of the 737 MAX gives the airline a little more breathing room to schedule flights for the beleaguered plane.  For weeks, the airline maintained it would fly the MAX by early November.  Now, it has moved the return date back to December 19th, shortly before when Southwest plans to fly the MAX, while American still targets early November.  

Boeing (NYSE:BA) says it is making progress validating and tweaking
software upgrades for the flight control system of the MAX.  That system is
a primary factor in the crashes of two MAX planes that killed 346 people.  
In March, the FAA and other regulators around the world grounded the MAX.  

Now, a panel of those regulators says it expects to issue its report on the
737 MAX in the coming weeks.  The new head of the FAA, Stephen Dickson,
says he won`t let the grounding be lifted until he`s convinced the plane is
safe to fly again.  

Boeing (NYSE:BA) CEO Dennis Muilenburg says that could happen as soon as October.  If the MAX is back before the busy holiday rush, it will be
welcome news for United and other airlines that need more planes in order
to meet the strong demand of people flying.  

But how many of those travelers will balk at getting back on a 737 MAX
again?  That could make the return of this plane a bumpy one regardless of
when it happens.  



GRIFFETH:  Campbell`s Soup heats up in their sales, that is.  That`s where
we begin tonight`s “Market Focus” with the company reporting better than
expected earnings thanks to stronger demand for its soup and snack brands like Goldfish and Kettle potato Chips.  

Campbell has been selling noncore brands recently so that it can focus on
soup and snacks, and it seems to be working.  That stock nearly jumped 4
percent today to $45 even.  

Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) reported better than expected second quarter profits,
making it the latest discount retailer to post a solid quarter.  The
company also said it should be able to withstand any tariff-related
headwinds that come its way.  The stock was up more than 3 percent to

China`s government announced it`s going to exempt Tesla models from that country`s purchase tax.  The exemption could reduce the cost of the car.  No reason was given for the decision, by the way.  Tesla has invested
heavily in China, which is the world`s largest automobile market.  Shares
were up nearly 2 percent today to $225.61.  

Activist investor Janna Partners has taken a nearly 10 percent stake in
Bloomin` Brands.  In its SEC filing, Jana called the casual dining
restaurants shares undervalued.  Jana intends to discuss a possible sale,
divesture and board compensation with management.  Bloomin Brands shares rose 7 percent to $18.04.  

And Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) is reportedly dropping Lionsgate`s premium channel Starz from its bundle at the end of the year.  The decision was first reported by “The Information”.  The deal currently is in place and set to expire in four months.  Lionsgate declined almost 5 percent today to $9.03.  Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) was up a fraction to $44.26.  

And we must mention that Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS), as you know, is the parent company of CNBC which produces this program.  

So, the summer box office was not as hot this year as it has been in the
past, but analysts say business could heat up this fall even as the weather
cools down.  

Julia Boorstin is in Los Angeles.  


JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Despite a few megahits this summer like “Lion King”, “Avengers: Endgame”, and “Toy Story 4”, overall, it`s been a disappointing summer season.  The year-to-date box office is down 6.5 percent from last year, putting three key themes in focus this fall.  

First, Disney (NYSE:DIS) is expected to continue to dominate, after drawing
over 36 percent of domestic ticket sales this year with five of the top six
movies, including “Avengers: Endgame” and “Lion King.”  Coming up, Disney`s “Frozen 2”, “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”, “Star wars: The Rise of
Skywalker” are expected to build on their franchise`s success.  

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN, COMSCORE SR. MEDIA ANALYST:  Disney (NYSE:DIS) is really adept at taking all of their brands, looking at the best parts of the brands, reimagining, rebooting, creating franchises and bringing in tons of audiences around the world.  

UINIDENTIFIED MALE:  How are you, Frank?  This is Jimmy Hoffa.  

BOORSTIN:  Second, this fall, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) will put 10 of its
movies in theaters, including Martin Scorsese`s “The Irishman”, and “The
King”, starting Timothee Chalamet.

This is Netflix`s biggest push into theaters yet, putting these films on
the big screen for less than a month before they`re available for streaming
and they`ll be only in limited release after Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) failed
to strike deals with the big theater chains.  

Netflix`s theatrical strategy isn`t about selling tickets but about chasing
Oscars for its big-name filmmakers and for promoting the exclusive content it streams after U.S. subscriber numbers declined last quarter.  

With films such as “Ford versus Ferrari” zooming into theaters, the third
theme to watch, the performance of non-franchise films as studios such as
Fox`s new parent Disney (NYSE:DIS) considered the value of investing in
this kind of stand-alone film.  

DERGARABEDIAN:  Successful non-franchise films are hard to find because
audiences are seemingly gravitating towards the tried-and-true brands, the
franchises, the reboots, the things they know and love, and steering clear
most of the time from original content.  

BOORSTIN:  While Sony`s “Little Women” and a Mr. Rogers (NYSE:ROG) biopic starring Tom Hanks will be a test of demand for this kind of Oscar bait.  With Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Universal (NYSE:UVV) together controlling over half of the box office, we`ll see how the smaller studios hold up and whether they could get snapped up.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.  


GRIFFETH:  Time for our weekly market monitor who has three names in the financial services industry that he likes because they have pricing power.  

This is his first time on our program.  We welcome Dev Kantesaria.  He`s
founder and portfolio manager at Valley Forge Capital Management.  

Dev, thanks for joining us tonight.  Welcome.  


GRIFFETH:  And we start with Fair Isaac, famous ticker symbol, FICO.  Of
course, they do credit reports and things.  I was looking at the five-year
charge of this — $50 five years ago, $350 today.  

Do you think there`s still more growth to go I guess?  

KANTESARIA:  We do.  The company has a virtual monopoly on consumer credit scores, mortgages, auto loans, credit cards.  And, you know, over the last couple of years, they instituted special price increases.  Last year, it
was mortgages, this year it is auto loans and they will roll it out to
other areas in the future.  

And they`ve also instituted general price increases every year above the
rate of inflation.  They still represent a very small portion of the
overall credit decision amount.  And so, we think there`s plenty of room to
grow on pricing for this company.  

GRIFFETH:  And then the second one is Moody`s (NYSE:MCO).  A lot of these charts look similar as it happens.  It has had a great growth rate over the last several years as well.  Why do you like Moody`s (NYSE:MCO)?  

KANTESARIA:  Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) is a natural duopoly with S&P Global.  They rate 90 percent of the debt in the world, and you could think of them as toll collectors.  

When someone needs to issue debt, you have to go through Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) and S&P.  They collect a small piece of the transaction.  There`s a lot of debt that`s going to be issued and refinanced over the next ten years.  And so, they have tremendous pricing power.  

They increased prices annually above the rate of inflation for many years,
yet still represent a small portion of the overall debt issuance cost.  So,
we think it will — it`s going to have a bright future.  

GRIFFETH:  You like these companies in duopolies.  Here is another example, Visa (NYSE:V) you like.  But its main competitor would be MasterCard (NYSE:MA) I guess.  Do you like Visa (NYSE:V) instead of MasterCard (NYSE:MA) or do you like both necessarily?  

KANTESARIA:  We like them both and we own them both.  You know, they
control virtually every payment transaction in the world.  They take a
small piece of every credit and debit card transaction, and given the trend
towards electronic payments, they had robust growth in the past.  We think
that that can continue into the foreseeable future.

You know, despite disruptive technology, Visa (NYSE:V) remains at top of
the food chain.  And we think as long as there aren`t government controls,
pricing controls on debit and credit card transactions, Visa (NYSE:V) has a
very long path of strong, organic growth going forward.  

GRIFFETH:  Dev Kantesaria, with Valley Forge Capital Management — again,
thanks for joining us tonight.  

KANTESARIA:  Thank you for having me.  

GRIFFETH:  And coming up, one person`s clutter is another person`s


DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Is this someone`s attic or a cash cow?  I`ll explain coming up on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.  


GRIFFETH:  Got stuff?  Everybody does.  It piles up in our homes and takes
up space, and now, a new company thinks it has a solution.  It is taking on
extra clutter and matching it with extra space.  

Diana Olick has the story from Atlanta tonight.  


OLICK:  They say in every attic, there is hidden treasure, but now, there
is hidden profit, and not just in the attic.  Anywhere you have extra space
in and around your home.  

Thanks to the shared economy and a new company neighbor, people who have extra space are connecting online with people who have extra stuff.  

So you can store your stuff in someone else`s house instead of renting a
pricier storage unit.  Barely two years old, neighbor, which charges users
a fee, has seen 500 percent annual growth according to its CEO.  It is now
available in 48 states and it is going international.  

JOSEPH WOODBURY, NEIGHBOR.COM CEO:  It is not just garages and basements and driveways.  We`ll have people put up barns, their old barn and they`ll store classic cars in their barn.  We have people put up even small spaces.  In university towns, we will have people put up a closet and students will store two or three boxes in their closet.  

OLICK:  Exactly what the Cohen family is doing in their Atlanta home.  They
rented out a corner of their attic to a college student, and she brought
her extra stuff.  They`re also going to rent their extra parking space.  

BERNICE COHEN, NEIGHBOR.COM LANDLORD:  We`re not looking to rent out an RV with somebody`s Airbnbing their RV or living in it.  There`s a limit.  


B. COHEN:  There`s a limit.  We draw the line, I draw the line.  

OLICK:  Homeowners are allowed to inspect anything they store, and neighbor insures them up to $2 million if the stuff should somehow hurts the house.  And homeowners can reject anything.

D. COHEN:  We definitely wouldn`t have like fireworks.  

B. COHEN:  Weapons.  

D. COHEN:  Or anything like that.  Chemicals.  

B. COHEN:  Explosives or animals or humans.  

OLICK:  And for those renting the space, it is a lot cheaper than the big
public companies because homeowners have less overhead.  

D. COHEN:  We all looked around at, like, what u haul or one of the bigger
self-storage places are charging and then went below that, but wanted to
keep it somewhat comparable.  

OLICK:  There are six self-storage reach and the sector is very strong, but
you have to wonder is this going to do to self-storage what Airbnb did to

WOODBURY:  Currently, there are more storage facilities in the United
States than there are Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), McDonald`s (NYSE:MCD),
Walmart, Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Domino`s Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Dunkin Donuts and Costcos combined.  So, it`s just this massive, massive industry that we are trying to disrupt.  

OLICK:  And so far, it seems there is plenty of space for this disrupter in
the space.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Atlanta.  


GRIFFETH:  Finally, tonight, the business of tennis, the $6 billion
industry is preparing for a tariff hit this weekend.  Tennis balls are
subject to increased tariff on Sunday.  Tennis racket tariffs will be
increased in December.  

But with the U.S. open under way in New York, the focus right now is on the sport itself and some amateur players are finding high-tech ways to improve their game.  

Here is Eric Chemi.  


ERIC CHEMI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  These division 1 tennis players spend a lot of time practicing at the typical-looking tennis court in New Jersey, but high-tech video with data analysis is changing the way future pros are learning the game.  

MATTHEW CHE, UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME:  You can`t really see all of the little details that — with the human eye that you can with a camera around technology stuff.  So, that`s when details show up.  

KARL POLING, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY:  You can slow it down and really see where you`re making mistakes or losing power.  

CHEMI:  The court sends teaching program is owned by one of Novak
Djokovic`s coaches and features the PlaySight camera systems based on
Israeli air force technology.  

correction, all of a sudden, now, your ball is 5 miles an hour faster or
slower or more spin.  

CHEMI:  The technology made an immediate difference for me, showing exactly what I was doing wrong, like dropping my left arm rather than keeping it up to stabilize the ball.  

It goes beyond tennis, too.  With sports biomechanics looking for any flaws
or asymmetries in the player`s mental reaction time and physical

DONALD SHRUMP, JR., HIGH PERFORMANCE CONSULTANT:  If you are a better athlete the science behind athleticism says you will have reduced injuries and a longer career.  

JOSEPHS:  I feel that every generation gets better, partially because of
technology gets better.  

CHEMI:  For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eric Chemi in Tenafly, New Jersey.  


GRIFFETH:  Before we go a final look at the day on Wall Street as we close
out August.  The Dow rose just 41 points.  The Nasdaq was down about 10,
the S&P up less than two.  And for the month, all the major averages were

That is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight.  I`m Bill Griffeth.  Thanks
for watching.  Have a great long weekend.  We`ll be back here Monday for a special edition of NBR.  See you then.  


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