TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Good evening, everyone.
I`m Tyler Mathisen. Welcome to this special holiday edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: And I`m Sue Herera.
Tonight, as we sit with friends to give thanks, we`re pretty sure many are
looking back on the big changes that our nation has witnessed in just the
past couple weeks.
MATHISEN: Well, those sweeping changes begun on Election Day when Donald
Trump won the White House. But the changes have not been limited, of
course, to politics. Since November 8th, the stock market has rallied,
bigly, he might say, sending many of the broad market indexes to levels
never seen before.
Dominic Chu takes a look at what might be next for the market and your
DOMINIC CHU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: You can`t say we
haven`t had an eventful November in the markets. The election is now
behind us, and investors and analysts all over are trying to figure out if
that stock rally since the Election Day has legs into the year-end.
Well, history may help provide at least a little bit of color as to what to
expect as we head deeper into the holiday season. Bulls will point to the
generally positive nature of the markets in December. According to data
analytics firm Kensho, over the last 20 years, the large cap S&P 500
averages a 1.2 percent gain for the month of December and it`s been a
positive month 70 percent of the time. A seasonally strong December and
some other factors have at least some money managers feeling good about the
DAVID WINTERS, WINTERGREEN ADVISERS CEO: I`m generally bullish, because I
think you`re going to get as most people believe quite a bit of fiscal
stimulus. And I think that there are securities out there that are more or
less neglected that represent good value, and so, if you focus on value,
and we think value comes back, that you can make good money over time.
CHU: While utilities and industrial-related stocks have been some of the
biggest average gainers in that time span, energy and technology-related
stocks have been among the biggest laggards. And there are still a number
of market risks to be aware of in the coming weeks and months.
KATIE NIXON, NORTHERN TRUST WEALTH MANAGEMNT CIO: One of the biggest risks
to the market will be the Fed meeting. Investors have built in the
expectation the Fed will raise rates, but we`re not quite sure what they`re
going to say. So, all eyes will be on that.
Second, we think the market has really been driven by expectations and news
out of Washington. So, to the extent that news doesn`t meet market
expectations, that represents an additional risk.
CHU: But for investors with a longer time horizon, many experts still
believe you should take advantage of any market weakness.
WINTERS: I think the most important thing for investors to do is, you
know, buy stocks on dips, buy companies that they understand the
fundamentals for, and to think long-term.
CHU: Now that the election is behind us and we`re recovering from the
Thanksgiving food coma, investors may have a chance to do fine-tuning for
their portfolios into the year-end.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Dominic Chu.
HERERA: Another big change for your money could come from the Federal
Reserve. Many expect the central bank to raise interest rates when
policymakers meet next month. That would be the first increase in a year,
and just the second in a decade.
Hampton Pearson takes a look at what might be next for the Fed.
HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: When the Fed looks
at the American economy, there is much for which to be thankful. The most
recent economic stuffing included new data, showing an improving housing
market, rising consumer prices, and a still robust labor market.
Last week on Capitol Hill, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers the
economy is strong enough to withstand an interest rate hike and soon.
JANET YELLEN, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR: Were the FOMC to delay increases in
the federal funds rate too long, it could end up having to tighten policy
relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting
both of the committees` longer run policy goals.
PEARSON: The Fed chair`s comments bolstered expectations for a rate hike
when monetary policymakers meet in mid-December, one month before
President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
Monetary policymakers are also keeping an eye on the president-elect`s
plans to jumpstart economic growth. Yellen urged lawmakers to choose
wisely and don`t overlook inflation.
YELLEN: Such as package could have inflationary consequences that the Fed
would be — have to take into account in devising policy.
PEARSON: Leading economists and market-watchers say the biggest X-factor
for the Fed, how quickly the Republican-controlled Congress moves on the
president-elect`s plans for tax cuts, a major infrastructure program, and
the Obamacare overhaul.
DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, AMERICAN ACTION FORUM: So for calendar 2017, there is
probably no real news, no real tax cuts, no real spending gets out. So
they get to execute their game plan, watch what passes the Congress, and
then start revising how quickly they have to raise after 2017, and when
they have to stop.
PEARSON: And we now know, Janet Yellen will remain at the helm of the Fed
next year. Yellen telling lawmakers she has no plans to step down until
her current term as Fed chairman ends in 2018.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.
MATHISEN: So, what can we expect from a financial market, the economy, the
Fed, between now and the rest of the year? And spilling over into 2017?
And how could it all affect your investments?
Mark Luschini is chief investments strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott,
and Lara Rhame is a senior economist at FS Investments. They join us now
Why don`t we start, Lara, with the economy and how you see it evolving into
— through the end of this year and into 2017? Why don`t you start with
what kind of holiday shopping season you expect?
LARA RHAME, FS INVESTMENTS SR. ECONOMIST: Well, you know, so far the
consumer has been very robust. It`s really the main engine driving our
economy forward. I will be out there doing my part. I have to say. But I
think that we`re going to see a very strong consumer in the fourth quarter.
HERERA: I`ll be right there with you.
Let`s, Mark, comment on the fact that the market seems to be indicating
that the economy is on stronger footing than maybe other people think. And
that we`re going to have strong growth. And that`s why we have seen these
new all-time highs in the major indexes. What do you think?
MARK LUSCHINI, JANNEY MONTGOMERY SCOTT: Well, Sue, I mean, we have an
element of uncertainty now removed from investors` mindset. Of course, and
that is the election.
And I think much to the counter of what some had expected, the selloff that
was likely to accompany a Trump victory was worn off by basically 11:00 the
day after the election. And so, investors, I think, have gravitated toward
this notion that a single-party system is going to enable the enactment,
the legislation, of some of Trump`s propaganda, relative to not only a
significant fiscal package in the form of infrastructure spending but
corporate tax reform.
And I think a lot of that is being pulled forward into equity prices right
now. I`m not sure that obviously this kind of rally that we have had in
the last couple weeks is going to be sustained over the balance of the next
12 months. There is plenty of room for an underwhelming policy response or
delays along the way. But either way, I think on balance this is
beneficial to equities. On top of a sturdy economic climate, you have the
potential for some positives as a consequence of those policy initiatives.
MATHISEN: Let`s talk, Lara, a little bit about your outlook for the
economy in 2017 and beyond. Obviously, if there is fiscal stimulus next
year in the form of a tax cut or infrastructure spending, that`s going to
play out over time. What do you think the outlook is for economic growth
next year and are those projections of maybe 4 percent or greater growth in
what they used to call in D.C. the out-years, are those achievable, really?
RHAME: You know, I think it`s really important to remember, with the
election news out of the way, that 2017 probably still looks about the same
as it did before the election. A lot of the changes that were being
discussed and that the robust positive news that the equity market is
latching onto is probably more of a 2018 story. The structural challenges
the economy is facing, low productivity growth, and lower labor force
growth are still in place.
So, my forecast is 2 percent growth in 2017. And that`s probably
relatively healthy versus our potential output growth. And numbers of 4
percent, 5 percent, may still good on the campaign trail. The reality is
when you do the math and add it up, it`s extremely hard to achieve that.
HERERA: All right. So, Mark, if I have money that has been sitting on the
sidelines until the election was decided, now we know who is going to be in
the White House. Where do I put that money to work?
LUSCHINI: Sure, Sue. Well, everything is certainly melted up. But, I
mean, I think if you poke around the energy sector and technology sector,
there are still opportunities there. I think those both stand to benefit
for further economic growth and maybe even some acceleration thereof.
I would be patient to put capital to work in a couple of other areas that
look really good, namely financials, of course. Another might be the
industrial sector that have rallied on the belief that, again, all the
things we had mentioned earlier are going to come to fruition early in 2017
instead of later or maybe 2018 events. And therefore, would try to buy at
maybe 5 to 10 percent lower prices than what they`re currently offered at.
But on balance, I would be leaning more cyclical than I would defensive,
because I think what we`re going to see is breeding of an inflationary
climate that is going to be counterproductive to those classic interest
rate sensitive sectors.
MATHISEN: All right. Mark, thank you very much. Mark Luschini with
Janney Montgomery Scott.
LUSCHINI: You`re welcome.
MATHISEN: And Lara Rhame with FS Investments. Happy Thanksgiving.
LUSCHINI: Same to you, Tyler.
HERERA: And still ahead, what taxes, infrastructure and energy may look
like under a Trump White House.
HERERA: Big changes may be coming to trade. Donald Trump has said that he
wants to renegotiate NAFTA, and has called the Trans Pacific Partnership
trade deal a disaster.
But a Seattle business owner who has operations in Asia disagrees. Eunice
Yoon reports tonight from Yancheng, China.
EUNICE YOON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Far from American
politics, Seattle native Fred Crosetto has had to upend his investment
plans. A major free trade pass initiated by President Obama was expected
to boost his business making disposable gloves for U.S. consumers. But
with the surprise election of Donald Trump, that deal looks all but dead.
FRED CROSETTO, AMMEX FOUNDER: I guess all bets are off until we know what
happens with the TPP.
YOON: The TPP or Trans Pacific Partnership encompasses 12 nations as far-
flung as New Zealand and Peru.
But the agreement has come under attack by critics, including Donald Trump.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT-ELECT: We will also immediately stop the job-
killing Trans Pacific Partnership. That`s going to be the next disaster.
YOON: Crosetto, who has his gloves made in five countries, thinks the TPP
would be great for America, cutting prices for consumers and tariffs for
U.S. companies in Asia and back home.
CROSETTO: There are 18,000 products that are going to come out of the
United States in the TPP countries. And those are going to be more or less
duty-free and it`s an enormous golden age of opportunity for American
manufacturers and American suppliers to ship things to Asia, because Asians
has got rising incomes. They want to spend and they have a high appetite
for high quality products.
YOON: All of these products made here in China are headed for North
America. But if the TPP passes, chances are more businesses like this will
shift to countries that signed on to the TPP.
Crosetto was going to scale back his production in China, which isn`t part
of the TPP, in favor of Malaysia and Vietnam, which are. With the TPP near
death, he now fears his hiring plans back in the U.S. will also stall.
CROSETTO: We think the TPP in our particular company is going to generate
numerous, high-paying jobs. Most in the services, social media designs,
sales and marketing.
YOON: If you got a chance to sit down with Donald Trump, what would you
tell him about the TPP and Asia?
CROSETTO: I would say, look, Asia is a very important place. The United
States would really be wise to sit down and say, how can we actively engage
Asia, China? Because this is where things are going to happen in the next
YOON: For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon.
MATHISEN: The transition to a Trump administration may usher in some major
changes to the country`s infrastructure. The president-elect has proposed
spending $1 trillion over a ten-year period and the railroads are expected
to get a big lift.
Morgan Brennan has more.
MORGAN BRENNAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: You`re at CSX
(NYSE:CSX) Bedford Park rail yard, 22 trains loaded with some 1,300
containers moved daily on equivalent of 26 miles of track. It is a huge
facility and it privately funded by CSX (NYSE:CSX). It highlights the fact
that the freight railroads already maintain their own networks, on track to
spend $26 billion this year alone.
But if President-elect Donald Trump comes through on plans to drum up a
trillion dollars in infrastructure spending, rails will still likely
benefit as connecting highways and passenger rail tracks and ports get an
But the biggest boon would actually be moving the building supplies
themselves, increasing volumes at a time when rails have struggled amid a
weak freight environment.
FREDRIK ELIASSON, CSX (NYSE:CSX) EXEC VP: We served industrial economy, to
large degree. And when they win, we win. And there`s opportunities here,
based on what ultimately the policies are going to be for potentially more
spending and obviously be helpful for us, as well.
BRENNAN: But there are many questions that are far from being answered,
particularly around trade. If the incoming Trump administration takes a
more protectionist approach to trade, upending NAFTA and taking a tougher
stance against China, that could have big ripple effects in the North
American supply chain.
For the U.S. railroads, about one-third of total traffic is trade-related,
according to Association of American Railroads with chemicals, grain and
autos among the biggest groups.
Analysts say some railroads would be more affected, particularly those that
have benefited with booming trade with Mexico, a growth story in an
otherwise tough freight environment.
KEN HOEXTER, BANK OF AMERICA TRANSPORTATION ANALYST: We`re certainly going
to see a shifting trade pattern and that could certainly impact some of the
railroading that go across border. And continue on trade. And does that
investment go back into that Rust Belt States where you could see more and
more traffic originate from those areas.
BRENNAN: And more traffic could come. The president-elect has vowed to
reinvigorate coal which for the rails has plunged by half from a peak of
140,000 weekly car loads in 2008. But while coal deregulations could boost
revenues and certainly the stocks, not even the railroads themselves expect
to return to the commodities` glory days.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Morgan Brennan in Bedford Park, Illinois.
HERERA: When it comes to energy, President-elect Trump has pledged to
support increased oil and gas development, and a revival of the coal
industry. He also wants to ease industry regulations.
Jackie DeAngelis reports what impact these potential changes could have on
JACKIE DEANGELIS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Candidate Trump
supported relaxing energy industry regulations. If President Trump can
achieve those goals, that would benefit the drillers, the frackers and the
infrastructure companies. But it can also increase supply, at a time when
there is already a worldwide supply glut.
ANTHONY GRISANTI, GRZ ENERGY: Trump will open up the oil markets and make
it more advantageous for exploration and production. The markets will
regulate themselves. In other words, if there is too much oil on the
market, and it`s not profitable for them to produce, then those wells will
stay shut. And if it is, they`ll come online.
DEANGELIS: Infrastructure projects are also in focus, especially pipelines
to move oil around. Not only will the projects create jobs, but they`ll
continue to build out the domestic transport network we need to get oil
where it needs to go.
On coal, Trump won`t expand the industry, but he won`t make moves to tamp
down on it too quickly. The goal would be to keep coal companies and
workers in business. Alternative energy was an area expected to thrive
under Hillary Clinton. It may not see exponential growth under Trump, but
analysts are not expecting alternative energy companies to suffer
GRISANTI: The problem that we had before was there was a jump to green
when it was not economically feasible for many companies to be able to do
that. Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL) fuels are what we use right now. The world
does want to go to green but it`s going to be a slow process, not something
that we could force on companies.
DEANGELIS: Meantime, experts say that none of these changes will be made
overnight. It`s going to take some time to approve and implement them.
And when it comes to the energy industry, slow and steady wins the race.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jackie DeAngelis.
MATHISEN: Across the board, tax cuts. That`s what President-elect Donald
Trump has promised. But what does that mean for you and your wallet?
Robert Frank takes a look.
ROBERT FRANK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Donald Trump`s tax
plan would put an average of $2,900 a year back into the pockets of average
American taxpayers. The highest earners get the biggest cuts both in
dollar and percentage terms. Trump has touted his plan as a way to
simplify the tax code and put more spending into the private sector.
So, the biggest change he`s proposing is to cut the seven current tax rates
down to three. It would be 12 percent, 25 percent, and 33 percent.
Companies get a big cut too — the corporate tax rate going from 35 to 15
percent. For those who own their own companies or have partnerships, Trump
would allow them to use that 15 percent rate for their personal income tax
He would also eliminate the estate tax which currently applies to estates
worth more than $10 million. And he would cut the capital gains tax.
So, what does it all mean in dollar terms? Well, if you add in all those
tax provisions together, the bottom quintile earns get extra $110 or less
than 1 percent of their income. Middle earners get a cut of 2 percent or
about a thousand bucks. And the top 1 percent get a cut of 13.5 percent or
$214,000 a year. And the top 0.1 percent get a cut of more than 14
percent, giving them an extra $1,066,000 per year.
Trump`s plan is similar to that put forth by House Speaker Paul Ryan, so it
has a good chance of becoming law. And all that extra cash totaling
trillions a year could go to consumer spending, investing or saving.
If there is a price, the Tax Policy Center saying Trump`s plan would add up
to $6 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Robert Frank.
HERERA: Dave Prokupek joins us now to talk more about how taxes under
President-elect Donald Trump could impact you. He is CEO of Jackson
Welcome. Nice to have you here.
DAVID PROKUPEK, JACKSON HEWITT CEO: Great to be here.
MATHISEN: Good to have you back.
HERERA: You know, Robert Frank detailed the major changes and you say yes,
it`s a simplified tax code. But the effects of that are rather uncertain
PROKUPEK: They are. I mean, we look at it at Jackson Hewitt, we`ve got to
stay on top of this all time and people don`t want to leave all of the
money on the table.
HERERA: Of course.
PROKUPEK: But change, even good change, creates uncertainty. So, we`re
looking at simplification. You`re going from five filing statuses down to
two. That`s going to make it easier on people. You`re going to have only
three tax brackets.
And one of the other things everyone is talking about, he`s going to have
one big giant deduction of $30,000. And so, you`re going to have a lot of
people actually not paying federal taxes this year, especially —
MATHISEN: That`s going to be the standard deduction, or the standard
PROKUPEK: The standard exemption for married is going to be $30,000. So
once you subtract that $30,000 from whatever you make, it`s really going to
lower your taxable income. And so, a lot of folks —
HERERA: And maybe your bracket.
PROKUPEK: And your bracket. And so, the lowest bracket is going to be
down to 12 percent. So, a lot of people are going to benefit from these
MATHISEN: So, it is always good advice, I remember, from my days covering
personal finance, to accelerate deductions and postpone income. If tax
rates are coming down, that advice is even more important this year, right?
PROKUPEK: We think so. There is a big planning opportunity. The phones
are already ringing.
So, one of the simple left things can do is just in their charitable
MATHISEN: Accelerate it.
PROKUPEK: Accelerate it. Bring it into this year.
MATHISEN: Because that deduction will be worth more with higher rates than
it will next year.
PROKUPEK: So, if you`re paying 40 percent this year, you`re going to save
40 percent. If you`re only paying 20 percent next year, so it is worth a
lot more. Your bonuses, you would defer into next year. Capital spending.
So, a big planning opportunity.
HERERA: I want to be in that category. Defer a lot of money.
HERERA: It hasn`t happened yet.
What about for businesses? The corporate tax rate he is proposing to
really lower dramatically. That could be a boon to a lot of corporations.
PROKUPEK: We think so. I mean, he`s talking about coming down to 15
percent. And put us on par with a lot of the rest of the world. You know,
being a CEO for the last 25 years, I know when you feel confident about
what you`re going to make, you`re going to spend more money, generally.
And so it`s a boon.
If you own apartment buildings across the board, people should have more
money to spend and invest.
MATHISEN: Let`s talk about capital gains rates. Those, I believe, are
proposed to come down, as well. Should I postpone selling an asset this
year in anticipation that the rate may come down next year?
PROKUPEK: I think that, as long as we`re at the end of the year and unless
you`re sitting on a transaction, it would appear to wait. You have a lot
of families and folks with really low basis assets that you could see them
selling into next year, because they view it as a generational low in terms
of where capital gains rates are going to be.
HERERA: All right. Dave, thank you so much. So glad you could be with
us. Happy Thanksgiving.
PROKUPEK: Happy Thanksgiving to you. Thank you.
HERERA: David Prokupek with Jackson Hewitt.
MATHISEN: All right. Coming up, did you eat too much for Thanksgiving?
The fitness industry has some new and very creative ways to help you burn
off the bird.
HERERA: Overeating at Thanksgiving is common. Way too common. Some say
it`s a tradition. So if you had too much turkey or an extra helping of
pie, you`re probably wondering how you can burn off those extra calories.
The ultra competitive fitness industry has some ideas.
Diana Olick shows you the ropes. Literally.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That feels really good.
DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Whether you`re hanging
from the ceiling, or bouncing off the walls, you`re definitely not bored.
And that`s the strategy behind new fitness offerings in a space that`s
getting increasingly crowded.
How important is it to really mix it up?
SUSAN PARK, SPARK YOGA CO-OWNER: So important. I think nowadays, the
students are getting much smarter, they`re getting much more educated about
fitness and wellness on all the different offerings. So, it`s always
important as a business to constantly innovate.
OLICK: At Spark Yoga in Arlington, Virginia —
PARK: Drop your toes towards the floor. Drop them towards me. All right.
Nice. Point your toes and then coming into vampire.
OLICK: They`re taking your downward dog up in the air, strengthening both
core and grip and decompressing your spine.
But more than that, they`re attracting people who just want into vampire.
KELSEY OHLEGER, AERIAL YOGA PARTICIPANT: There`s so much you can do,
between cycle, bar, yoga, aerial yoga, everything, and so, I just keep
switching it up to stay active and not get bored with anything.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You come up and over. Tap your foot two, each side.
OLICK: Impossible to get bored at AG Fix on Manhattan Upper East Side,
it`s something like a human video game, where you follow the lights on the
floors and walls, working both body and brain.
ANDRE KALEEN, ASPHALT GREEN AG PARTICIPANT: It`s ridiculous. I have never
sweat so much, worked out so hard and felt so tired when I was done.
OLICK: The technology is by a Spanish company Pavigym. They started in
flooring, but have put in over 30 of these workout studios, mostly across
Europe. They tell me they will double that in the next year.
JENNIFER COCCIA, ASPHALT GREEN FITNESS DIRECTOR: We`ve fielded a ton of
calls. A lot of people were really interested in the technology, now it`s
up to them to head over to Spain, check it out for themselves or even come
here, and then make the investment.
OLICK: The system costs over $100,000, but the payoff could be big because
in fitness today, if you build it, and flash it up, they will come.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in New York.
HERERA: That does it for this holiday edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.
MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thank you, as well. Have a great
And don`t forget, the market is open for an abbreviated trading day
tomorrow. And we`ll see you then.
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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