Despite the recent surge, stocks are still roughly 4 percent from their 52-week highs, and that has one technician calling foul on the rally.
“We’ve gone 10 months on the S&P 500 without making a new high. That’s the longest stretch since 2009,” MKM Partners’ Jonathan Krinsky told CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Tuesday.
According to Krinsky, such a length of time with no new high has happened only 11 times in the last 50 years and eight of those times occurred during a bear market. The three others happened during a consolidation phase that resulted in a breakout — the last time being more than 30 years ago, he said.
“This is a very crucial time,” said Krinsky, his firm’s chief market technician. “If [we] were to get into mid-May without making a new high, it would be rather rare for that to happen and not to be in the confines of a bear market.”
Even if the market were to reach a new high in the near future, Krinsky noted that the average one month, two month, three month and six month returns following this break in trend are all negative.
The technician identified the 2,060 to 2,100 range on the S&P 500 as key areas of resistance, and suggested that if the market were to fail at those levels, it could confirm the makings of a bear market. He highlighted 1,970 as the level in which investors should begin to panic. It was at 2,059 In premarket trading Wednesday.
“If we consolidate here for a couple of months and then make another run at the highs later in the year, then we’ll maybe see something more significant to the upside,” Krinsky said. “[However], we’re in the belief that we’re in a decent downtrend.”