Transcript: Nightly Business Report- November 12, 2015

NBR-ThumANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Sue Herera.

A slowdown in orders overshadows better than expected results putting
pressure initially on shares of the Dow component.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has a new title of most expensive stock. But is
owning shares with sky-high valuations dangerous to your wealth?

HERERA: Wrong track. Why part of the economy that we don`t really
talk about very often may be flashing some warning signs.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday,
November 12th.

MATHISEN: Good evening, everyone. And welcome.

Well, this is getting repetitive. Another nasty day on Wall Street.
Stocks suffered their worst session in over a month.

The three major indexes fell more than 1 percent pressured by a drop
in oil and gas prices that forced down energy company shares in the S&P
500. They fell 2.4 percent today, 5.4 percent so far this week.

Fed chatter didn`t help, Evans, Dudley, Lacker, Yellen, they all
spoke. None broke new ground, but none quelled worries that interest rates
may rise at the central bank`s next policy meeting in December. More on
that in a moment.

Meantime, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 254 points to 17,448.
NASDAQ declined 61. The S&P 500 off 29 and is now negative for the year.

HERERA: Dow component Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) issues a disappointing
outlook despite reporting a rise in profit. The network equipment maker
earned 59 cents a share, 3 cents better than estimates. Revenues were also
better than expected, coming in at more than $12 billion, an increase of
3.5 percent from last year.

But projected revenue and earnings growth were below estimates, and
that initially pressured the stock in after-hours trading.

Jon Fortt has the key takeaway from Cisco`s results.


Cisco`s earnings is that the guidance is what matters. Wall Street was
looking for year-over-year growth for Q2, that`s the upcoming quarter, of
about 5 percent. It came in zero to two.

And a big part of the reason is China, but not because China itself
was suffering. China and India were doing pretty well for Cisco
(NASDAQ:CSCO) themselves. It`s because China`s trading partners are
suffering because of the slowdown in China`s economy. That`s what Cisco`s
CEO had to say, and that led the stock to fall after hours.

Back to you.


MATHISEN: Jon Fortt reporting.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is in a class of its own. The company now the
most expensive stock in the S&P 500, trading at a valuation of more than
900 times earnings. That`s something you may want to consider if you are
thinking of buying Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) or other pricey shares like it.

Dominic Chu explains why investors are taking note of this eye-popping


why some stock investors are concerned about the market, and it has to do
with valuations and whether or not valuations are getting lofty. So, what
we`re looking is something called price to earnings ratio, or how much you
pay in stock price for every $1 of earnings that the company generates.

Now, overtime it`s varied. Now, we`ll take a look at this chart here
because back to the Internet bubble peaks in 1999, the large cap S&P 500
traded at around 30 times earnings, paying $30 in stock price for every $1
in profits that it generated per share.

Now, that was back then. Today, we`re nowhere near that level. We`re
closer to around 19 — 19 times earnings. But the reason why there`s a
little bit of concern is you can see that upward trajectory. Valuations
are getting higher, and they`re higher than they have been over the course
of the past 15 or 16 years on average.

Now, there are specific companies that are driving a lot of headlines
right now, namely some of the more momentum-oriented names. Take a look at

Under Armour (NYSE:UA) — athletic apparel, gym clothes, gym shoes,
that sort of thing. They currently trade at 95 times earnings. Meaning it
will cost you $95 in stock price for every $1 of earnings that Under Armour
(NYSE:UA) generates.

Now, these are all growth companies. So they may be justified in
terms of valuations. But again, there`s a debate right now.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), the online streaming giant, 305 times earnings.

And then the biggest one of them all in the S&P 500, Internet retail
giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).com, which currently trades at 972 times

So, when it comes to valuations, there`s a debate right now. These
are all very big growth companies and they`ve provided some stock returns,
but have they risen by enough to justify some of these valuations we`ve
seen? That`s a big debate that`s happening right now on Wall Street.



HERERA: So let`s continue that discussion and turn to our guests for
their opposing views on this topic.

John Buckingham is chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset
Management. He says he would not own expensive high-valuation stocks like

While Kevin Kelly, chief investment officer at Recon Capital Partners,
sees no risk in owning these types of stocks.

Gentlemen, welcome. Nice to have you here.

for having me.

HERERA: So, John, when you look at a stock like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN),
it certainly performs in terms of its business model. Why would you not
buy the stock? What`s the danger there?

Well, I`m a value investor. I like to buy things that are on sale. Market
history shows the company`s trading at inexpensive valuations tend to
outperform those trading at extensive valuations.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is certainly an expensive stock. And believe me
— it`s earned a lot of its gains because earnings have exceeded
expectations. Revenue growth has been fantastic.

But you are paying a pretty penny for the company today. And there
are so many other companies out there that I know they don`t have the
growth that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has, but they`re far, far less expensive.
And in a market that as your segment there suggested can be expensive on
some metrics, I`d much rather focus on companies that are attractively
price than try to chase after the hot stocks, especially one that`s
performed as well as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

MATHISEN: So, Kevin, why don`t you just give your rejoinder to John?
I take it that you see a lot of promise in these stocks, though boy, those
price-earnings ratios are astronomical.

KELLY: Yes. You`re reporting on the price to earnings ratio, which
are trailing not the forward ones — if you look at the forward P/E ratio
of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), it`s around 125. And so what you need to consider
is that their earnings are actually worth more. So, if you break down
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), they completely outperformed either other retailers
or even IT plays.

So, would you rather pay up for quality earnings from Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) unlike IBM, who`s completely down on the year and can`t even
get any traction in the cloud and even look at Macy`s (NYSE:M) or even J.W.
Nordstrom`s in the discretionary space that can`t gain any traction.
They`re down 30 percent over the last quarter.

So you want to get into names that can grow in this slow growth
environment. That`s what they`re doing. Global growth is slowing to a
tepid 2 percent pace. These are the companies that are growing overseas.
Take Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), for example. Their growth is faster overseas
than it was here in the U.S.

MATHISEN: But let me come back at you if I might just a little bit
there. When you`re talking about the forward earnings multiple, I assume
you`re talking about the next 12 months. And for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), it
would fall all the way back to 105. Well, 105 is still five times the
market multiple, which leaves you very little room for error, which
increases your risk, doesn`t it?

KELLY: Not really because the growth, right? So, where do you want
to find the growth? They`re able to tweak up their margins because growth
is in a high-margin business, it`s in their cloud computing space.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web services is clearly the dominant player
across the board. It beats out Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). It has more cloud
computing revenue than a stock like CRM, right? So, Salesforce.

So they`re growing across the board and it drops to their bottom line
immediately. Their margins are above 80 percent in that space.

HERERA: All right. So, John, take that on. Take on that argument.

BUCKINGHAM: Well, again, there are two ways to invest. One is to go
after growth. And I understand that you can be successful from time to
time investing in growth stocks. We go back to 2000, 1999, the,
quote/unquote, “new economy”.

For every Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), there were 175 sock puppets that ended
up going to nothing. And again, I agree Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is a great
company. And believe me, they could actually cut a lot of spending and
they could show substantial earnings growth.

So, I`m not necessarily saying that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is going out
of business like the sock puppet. But what I`m telling you is that market
history is filled with these hot stocks and when the music stops, they can
suffer tremendous declines.

And again, I`d rather focus, and the other fellow mentioned Microsoft
(NASDAQ:MSFT). He mentioned IBM. These are value stocks that if you have
a long-term time horizon, three five years, I`d much rather own those
companies, get paid to own them because they have generous dividend yields,
along the way.

HERERA: All right. John —

KELLY: Value traps, IBM.

HERERA: Thanks, guys.

John Buckingham with Al Frank Asset Management. Kevin Kelly with
Recon Capital Partners.

MATHISEN: You could probably buy a sock puppet on Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) for all I know.

All right. To the economy now and the job market, the number of job
openings climbed in September to more than 5.5 million. That is the second
highest level on record.

Separately, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits
last week remained unchanged at 276,000, near a 15-year low.

HERERA: And with the job market firming, many economists think the
Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates at its next meeting in
December. Today, a number of Fed officials didn`t focus quite so much on
December but on what might happen after that.

Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG) has more.


now starting to look at life beyond lift-off. While Fed Chair Janet Yellen
today did not make mention of U.S. economic conditions or the Fed`s rate
hike timing, plenty of others are chiming in.

New York Fed President Bill Dudley pulled a crowd at the economic club
of New York that tightening should be done slowly, adding that the Fed will
maintain accommodative policies even after rates are raised.

WILLIAM DUDLEY, NEW YORK FED PRESIDENT: I think it`s quite possible
that the conditions that the committee has established to begin to
normalize monetary policy could soon be satisfied. In particular, I`ll be
evaluating the incoming information to see if it confirms my expectation
that growth will be sufficient to further tighten the U.S. labor market.
After lift-off commences, I expect the pace of tightening will be quite

ROGERS: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans agrees with the notion,
repeating comments he made on Friday to CNBC`s Steve Liesman.

CHARLES EVANS, CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT: We need to think about the
entire path because that`s what`s going to dictate how accommodative or
restrictive our policy is. And so, I think we need to have communications
which indicate that the path is going to be gradual.

ROGERS: Both Evans and Dudley expressed caution due to concerns over
inflation running below the Fed`s 2 percent target. But St. Louis Fed
President Jim Bullard says that both the fed`s inflation and employment
goals have already been reached.

JAMES BULLARD, ST. LOUIS FED PRESIDENT: The policy rate remains near
zero and the Fed`s balance sheet is more than $3.5 trillion, larger than it
was before the crisis. Prudence alone suggests that since the goals of
policy have been met, we should be edging the policy rate and the balance
sheet back to more normal settings.

ROGERS: Also at the Cato (NYSE:CATO) Institute was Richmond Fed
President Jeffrey Lacker, who`s dissented at the past two meetings.

Lacker argues the Fed should have already raised rates. He said
earlier this week he could support a more rapid rate hike path. So, while
the Fed looks toward its policy path in 2016, Wall Street waits for the



MATHISEN: And while the Federal Reserve gets ready to potentially
raise rates, the European Central Bank today hinted it may move the other
way, toward additional economic stimulus.

Mario Draghi, its chief, said inflation has weakened and he reasserted
his willingness to expand the ECB`s bond-buying program.

HERERA: And in Greece, thousands took to the streets to protest
austerity measures. The 24-hour walkout shut down public services, closed
museums and archaeological sites, and canceled some flights. An estimated
20,000 people demonstrated in Athens against the government`s recent
agreement to raise taxes and cut spending in a return for a third bailout.

MATHISEN: And still ahead, one of the biggest risks for retail this
holiday season.


MATHISEN: An important but seldom talked about part of the economy
may be on the wrong track. We`re talking about demand for transportation
equipment, things like rail cars and big truck rigs. Orders are down. Way
down. And that`s not an upbeat sign.

Morgan Brennan explains why.


latest indicator of a softening economy, transportation equipment. Over
the past few years, this sector, which includes everything from trucks to
trains to planes, has been a bright spot. But some parts of the industry
may be starting to weaken.

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) analyst Justin Ward says industrial production
may have peaked in 2015. More concerning yet is the correlation between
transportation equipment and machinery, two parts of industrial production
showing signs of a slowdown.

45 years, anytime you had both of those components of industrial production
declining concurrently, that pretty much demarked the U.S. recession.

BRENNAN: Production of transportation equipment continues to grow,
thanks to auto and aerospace demand. But class A trucks, or semi trucks,
are showing signs of weakness. FTR reports that preliminary October
orders, while up from September, were 45 percent lower than a year earlier.
And rail car orders may be in trouble as well, plunging 83 percent last
quarter to multi-decade lows, according to data from the Railway Supply

This is a time of year when activity usually jumps as companies
finalize budgets for the upcoming year and order accordingly. But as
businesses slash their capital expenditures, the effects are rippling out.

It`s the latest indicator that an industrial recession could be taking
root. As commodities have collapsed and the stronger dollar has cut into
exports, energy and mining are already struggling. Steel executives, for
example, assert that a broader manufacturing downturn is already under way.

MARIO LONGHI, U.S. STEEL CEO: It`s happening. It`s not imminent.
For us, it`s more than a recession.

BRENNAN: Production of aerospace and autos, two key parts of the
transportation equipment sector, are still going strong. But analysts are
closely watching those two industries, warning that any additional weakness
there could spell trouble for the broader economy.



HERERA: There are also concerns in the retail industry. Inventory
and a lot of it has been building, despite a scarcity of retail containers
at the ports.

And as Courtney Reagan tells us, that`s risky business, especially
ahead of the holiday season.


port workers may not be unloading many containers full of retail goods.
But that doesn`t mean stores aren`t fully stocked for the holidays.

The port of Long Beach had its strongest October in eight years. But
the port of Oakland saw volumes decline 7 percent. The common thread at
both? A lack of retail merchandise imports.

But last year`s West Coast port threatened strike and subsequent long-
lasting port congestion led to big delays getting merchandise to retail
stores. Which means inventory piled up before holiday merchandise hit the
shelves. Couple that with retailers taking no chances and earlier
deliveries this year, and you get a glut of inventory across the industry
that has to be sold.

we`ve been hearing reports of excess inventory and supply chains. So,
retailers have for one reason or another filled their warehouses and
they`re wondering about how robust consumer spending will be during the
holiday season. So, they`re reluctant to import any more goods.

REAGAN: Kohl`s ended the quarter with inventory levels up 6 percent.
Though that level`s is one that`s improved. Analysts have called out
heightened inventory levels at Lululemon, Nike (NYSE:NKE), Under Armour
(NYSE:UA) and VF Corp among others.

Macy`s (NYSE:M) was among the retailers with lingering impacts from
delayed merchandise. That on top of sluggish sales led the department
store to end its third quarter with inventory levels 5 percent above last
year, going into the holiday season. Macy`s (NYSE:M) says it will discount
merchandise to clear it out. Good for shoppers, bad for profitability.

Walmart U.S. CEO Greg Foran says he`s comfortable with the inventory
levels but notes cooler temperatures would help sell that winter clothing.
The retailer amped up the amount of product it`s bought for the holiday
season to make sure shoppers get what they want.

GREG FORAN, WAL-MART U.S. CEO: We have bought deeper, and I think
that`s important. Because that means if I`m a customer and I`ve made the
effort to come to Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), you know, I maybe have to park a
long way away, had to stop what I was doing on Thanksgiving. I want to
know there`s a pretty good chance that that item was available for me.

REAGAN: While stocked shelves are great for shoppers, it becomes a
financial burden for retailers when it goes too far.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Courtney Reagan in San Francisco.


MATHISEN: We begin tonight`s “Market Focus” with another retailer
reporting disappointing results.

Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) this time had missed estimates partly because
costs related to selling its credit card business weighed on those results.
The company also cut its annual earnings forecast. Shares plunged initial
afterhours trading, as you see it fall off the cliff there. During the
regular session, the stock was almost 2 percent higher on this down day at

Big, big decline in film entertainment revenue and higher costs
weighed on Viacom`s quarterly. The owner of MTV and Comedy Central also
saying the strong dollar hurt its international business. Class A shares
rose however today more than 2 percent to $51.39.

Add Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) to the list of companies blaming the
strong green buck for disappointing results. The auto parts retailer cut
its 2015 profit forecast after its numbers missed the mark. Part of its
lowered forecast can be blamed on costs related to its acquisition of
General Parts International. Shares slid about 15 1/2 percent. That`s a
pretty big slide, at $164.64.

HERERA: Energizer holdings saw its earnings and revenue fall in its
most recent quarter as it was hurt by the timing of holiday shipments and
also currency headwinds. The battery maker also offering a weak outlook
saying earnings for 2016 will be below consensus. Shares tumbled 9 percent
to $36.08.

And according to a filing, United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) has an
accelerated share repurchase agreement with two banks to buy back $6
billion worth of its company shares. That`s part of the company`s larger
plan to buy back a total of $10 billion in shares this year. Shares rose 1
percent to $99.24.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) reported results that met estimates.
Its sales estimates seem to be on track to meet targets as orders from chip
makers looked like they might increase. Shares rose in initial after-hours
trading. During the regular session, the stock fell 1 1/2 percent to

MATHISEN: When Apple`s iPhone 6S went on sale it broke records but
recently some have questioned whether demand for that phone is waning just
a bit. Earlier this week, Credit Suisse lowered its earnings estimates for
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) next year, and in a note said the company has cut its
production orders for that phone by as much as 10 percent.

Eunice Yoon in Shanghai tells us about one company that is part
lowered its earnings estimates for Apple`s supply chain.


biggest electronics market, vendors like Guan Shaowei are feeling the pinch
of having too many iPhone 6S`s for sale. He`s had to cut the price by 7
percent, an unusual move he says so soon after the launch of one of Apple`s
phones here.

“If we compare the iPhone 6s to last year`s iPhone 6, the 6S`s sales
are at least 1/3 less than the 6,” he says.

Some vendors misjudged the market demand, stocked too many new iPhone
6S`s and are now struggling.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) sold 48 million iPhones in the fourth quarter.
The first to include the iPhone 6S and 6S plus. And it guided revenue
upwards for the current quarter. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) wouldn`t comment for
the story, instead referring us to its latest results.

But some analysts say an apparent build-up of iPhone 6S`s is affecting
the supply chain. The gate at Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Pegatron in
Shanghai can be mistaken for a bus stop. Workers carry away their
belongings as police look on. These migrants have been told, as the sign
says, that the Taiwan-based company has stopped recruiting here.

The workers here tell us that Pegatron went on a hiring spree over the
summer in anticipation of the sale of the iPhone 6S, but now they say that
of the production lines have been shut down.

Many of the workers are choosing to leave. Others have agreed to be
transferred to another factory, where they say they`re being told they
won`t be making the iPhone 6S.

Because of the sensitivity, few were willing to show their faces on

“The phone doesn`t sell very well, therefore, the orders have
dropped,” this worker says.

“The production lines were dismantled and some workers didn`t want to
be transferred. So some left, and others went home,” she says.

Pegatron told the Taiwan stock exchange and CNBC that operations were
normal, including production capacity and workforce allocation, even for
the iPhone 6s.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon in Shanghai.


HERERA: Coming up, winning streak. He doubled his company`s revenues
and profits and made the stock one of the hottest investments on Wall
Street. Find out who “Fortune” named its Business Person of the Year.


HERERA: Here`s a look at what to watch for tomorrow: lots of
important economic data coming out, including the producer price index, an
important measure of inflation. Retail sales are also out. And a report
on consumer sentiment is out as well. So that`s what to watch for on

Workers are paying more for their health care. According to a new
study, the average amount employees contribute to their plans has risen
more than 130 percent over the past decade. The report shows that combined
premium and out-of-pocket costs will surpass $5,000 per person for the
first time next year. And the trend higher is expected to accelerate.

MATHISEN: “Fortune” magazine out with its businessperson of the year.
Topping the list this year is Nike`s CEO Mark Parker, who has doubled
earnings and profits at the company since he took over the top job in 2006.
Coming in at number 2, Facebook`s Mark Zuckerberg. Rounding out the top
three is Andrew Wilson of Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS).

And Susie Gharib is here with us. She`s “Fortune`s” senior special
correspondent and very special to us. She`s a contributor to NBR.

Susie, welcome. Good to have you with us.

How does “Fortune” put together this list? What are the bases? And
what made Mr. Parker stand out?

SUSIE GHARIB, FORTUNE: It was a surprise, wasn`t it? Well, there
were ten financial metrics. Among them, how did revenues and profits grow
over one year and three years? How did the stock perform? Total return to
shareholders, stuff like that.

Then, there`s some qualitative stuff about business impact and
leadership. But Mark Parker, a lot of people were guessing who it was
going to be. And CEO of Nike (NYSE:NKE). And when the reporter from
“Fortune” went to go interview Phil Knight, who founded Nike (NYSE:NKE),
the first words out of his mouth were, “What took you so long? It`s about
time that somebody did a story on Mark Parker.”

An interesting thing about him, Tyler, is that he`s not one of these
CEOs who`s a big headline grabber.

MATHISEN: Not a high-profile guy.

GHARIB: He`s not big ego. He`s an introvert. He`s also a lifer.
He`s been with the company 40 years.

MATHISEN: Forty years?

GHARIB: Right out of college, he got a job designing sneakers. He
didn`t come from finance, didn`t come from sales, but designing sneakers
and he still gets very involved with —

HERERA: But they`ve been so innovative with their products and that`s
one of the things that`s been — it`s revolutionized the industry.

GHARIB: New technology. You know what`s interesting, Sue, is here`s
another statistic. Nike (NYSE:NKE) commands the whole athletic shoe
market, whether it`s running or basketball or soccer, 62 percent of the

HERERA: You know, I was interested in number 3, Andrew Wilson of
electronic arts. Another name a lot of people don`t know. They may know
his products but they don`t know him.

GHARIB: Right. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS), the video game
company. People thought it was left for dead a few years ago. Losing
money year after year.

He came in a few years ago, doubles profits and revenues. The stock
was something like $15, now in the 70s. Very successful in terms of his
track record.

The consoles are selling, believe it or not. Profits are back. And
he`s got this new game —

MATHISEN: Quick note on Travis Kalanick of Uber. I thought this was
based on financial metrics. They don`t have a stock price yet. They got a
big valuation.

GHARIB: They don`t have profits either, Tyler.


GHARIB: They don`t have the metrics. But when you`re doing a list on
business influencers this has been a very influential company, even though

MATHISEN: You can say that again. Susie, great to see you.

GHARIB: Great to see both of you.

HERERA: And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue
Herera. Thanks for watching.

MATHISEN: And thanks from me as well. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a
great evening, everybody. We`ll see you right back here tomorrow night.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at The program is transcribed by CQRC
Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of
our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as
investment advice. (c) 2015 CNBC, Inc.

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