Transcript: Nightly Business Report- October 19, 2015

NBR-ThumANNOUNCER:  This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Sue Herera.

reports its lowest quarterly revenue since 2002.  And its shares slide
initially in afterhours trading.

egg.  How much retirement income will you need?  It may not be the amount
you think.

HERERA:  Fighting the flu.  It`s big business for some very big
companies.  Tonight begins the first of our three-part series.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Monday,
October 19th.

MATHISEN:  Good evening, everyone, and welcome.

Case of the blues for big blue.  IBM`s revenue fell for the 14th
straight quarter, missing analyst estimates.  The world`s largest
technology services company said it was hurt by a strong dollar and by the
sale of low margin businesses as it shifts from making hardware into cloud
computing.  IBM reported earnings of $3.34 a share.  That was 4 cents
better than estimates.  That`s the good news.

But revenue fell nearly 14 percent from a year ago, coming in at
$19.28 billion.  And that sent shares of the Dow component initially lower
in afterhours trading.  In an interview after the results were released,
IBM`s CFO talked about the decline in revenue.


report, we obviously have a pretty substantial currency headwind that we
continue to deal with.  And as we transform our business, we continue to
move out of areas where we don`t see long-term value.  So, across that —
across our revenue base, that`s about 13 points of impact.


MATHISEN:  Josh Lipton has more now on IBM`s results.


billion dollars, that is what IBM reported for its software revenue.  A
drop of 10 percent compared with the third quarter of last year.  Analysts
had been looking for $5.2 billion, so a point of weakness where the street
was expecting strength.

FBR`s Dan Ives says the bigger point here is that IBM continues to
have real challenges adapting to this you new era of corporate computing.
IBM is putting a lot of time and money to work in building out its
portfolio of higher-value products and services shifting billions into
clouds, analytics, mobile, social, and security services.

But investors remain skeptical it can move quickly and ably enough.
The stock is on track for its third straight year of declines.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Josh Lipton in San Francisco.


HERERA:  This is a big week for tech earnings, and it will be closely
followed since that sector is the biggest among the S&P 500.  We`ll hear
from Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO)!, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN),
and Google`s parent company Alphabet.

Brian Blair joins us now to give us a preview of what to expect.  He`s
principal and co-founder of Grays Peak Capital, an investment management
firm that focuses on technology, media and telecom.

Welcome back, Brian.  Good to have you here.

Thanks for having me.

HERERA:  So, what are you expecting overall?  Let`s do a broad brush
look at tech and then we`ll maybe drill down a little bit more.

BLAIR:  I think for Q3, we`re going to see a lot of in-line results.
One of the things that happened back in August and September when the
market was selling off largely because of China concerns is we saw a lot of
the sell side bring down expectations.

So I think that expectations overall are going to be largely met.  You
know, some guys might be a little light but we`re thinking broadly in line
for Q3.  The big question mark and what — you know, is going to be Q4.
And what we`re expecting is going to be a conservative approach across the
board for a lot of these tech companies because there is a fair amount of

Not just with the typical uncertainty around the consumer and holiday-
related demand, but you know there`s a lot of uncertainty around the global
market right now and what`s going to happen in international markets like
Asia.  You know, as was mentioned by IBM, what is going to be the longer-
term impact of currency, you know, over the next several months.  And so,
that`s how we`re looking at the overall tech environment right now in terms
of earnings.

MATHISEN:  Let`s talk about three particular companies just very
quickly.  What do you expect from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Google

BLAIR:  So, on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), you know, they`re seeing a
number of good trends right now, very positive for Windows 10.  They`re
seeing some progress on the cloud side.  But the PC market is still very
sluggish.  I think Microsoft`s likely to be relatively mixed.  You know,
there`s a few things you can point to where there`s strength, but there are
also some areas where they`re still lagging.  So, that`s a mixed to me.

MATHISEN:  On to Alphabet or Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).

BLAIR:  Yes, Alphabet, I think this is going to be a very positive
one.  They have the wind at their backs.  They gave a very critical stat
just very recently that mobile searches are up over desktop searches for
the first time.  So they are really benefiting from the continued growth of
mobile usage of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).

MATHISEN:  And quickly, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

BLAIR:  Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one that I think is going to be one of
the more exciting ones to watch.  They`re continuing to invest in this
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) web services and they`re taking share and really
destroying a lot of the smaller players.  I think this is going to be a
really positive period for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

HERERA:  Brian, a number of those companies have in the past, and IBM
did it today, cited the currency issue that they have with the strong
dollar.  How legitimate is that?  We hear it so much now.

BLAIR:  You know, in some cases, it is legitimate, but I do think that
some companies probably like IBM are going to use it as a mask to hide some
softer fundamentals.  There certainly are examples of companies that
manufacture abroad and they`re buying parts abroad or manufacturing abroad,
and there will be some impact to currency there.  But I think some
companies are going to use it as something to hide behind when their
fundamentals are a little softer.

HERERA:  All right, Brian.  Thank you so much.

BLAIR:  You bet.

HERERA:  Brian Blair with Grays Peak Capital.

MATHISEN:  On Wall Street today, stocks closed slightly higher even as
energy prices fell as investors await a fifth of the S&P 500 companies to
report earnings this week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 14 to
17,230. NASDAQ gained 18, and the S&P 500 added a boisterous half a point.

HERERA:  Well, results for Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) certainly didn`t
help the market sentiment.  The bank reported a plunge in quarterly
profits, disappointing investors.  The last of the big banks to report its
numbers was hard hit by market volatility in the U.S. and China last
quarter and capped what some characterized as downbeat results for the
entire industry.  That pressured the stock, which fell 4 percent.

Mary Thompson digs deeper into the numbers.


the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) CEO James Gorman has
restructured the bank`s business to be more stable.  But in what Gorman
called an unusual trading environment, stability was in short supply as the
banks posted a 42 percent decline in third quarter profit.

first half the third quarter was obviously disappointing and reflected a
difficult market environment throughout the quarter.

THOMPSON:  While Morgan fund increased in advisory fees linked to
mergers and acquisitions, and a steady performance in equity trading,
Gorman noted the quarter was mark by three challenges.  First, the
volatility in China led to a steep decline in the value of one of the
firm`s Asia-focused private equity funds.  Second, the firm put aside more
money to address legal issues.  And third and most importantly, like its
rival banks, Morgan`s fixed income commodities and currencies for fixed
trading unit recorded its worst performance since the financial crisis,
hurt by jumpy markets in securitized products and credit.

RALPH SILVA, SBR NETWORK BANK ANALYST:  They have a decline in fixed
income.  That`s understandable.  But a 40 percent decline is just

THOMPSON:  Since he took over as CEO five years ago, Gorman`s work to
address the ongoing problems in the firm`s fixed income trading business
shrinking it to a size that allows it to serve clients without hurting

And while that wasn`t the case in the third quarter, Gorman brushed
off suggestions more cuts need to be made in the business, saying there
won`t be a knee-jerk reaction to a single bad quarter.  Still, even the
firm`s brokerage business, which Gorman`s expanded to provide stability for
the firm, saw revenue decline, as the volatile markets kept retail
investors on the sidelines.

Now, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) investors are sidelined with the stock
down 17 percent year to date, looking and hoping for a fourth quarter



MATHISEN:  A shake-up to report at Deutsche Bank.  The German
financial firm announced over the weekend that it plans to split its
investment bank into two and shuffle top management.  The moves are an
attempt to overcome legal problems and address complaints that the bank is
too complicated and not profitable enough.

HERERA:  To China now where that country`s economic growth logged its
weakest growth since the financial crisis.  The world`s second largest
economy grew 6.9 percent in the third quarter, below the government`s year
on-year growth rate of 7 percent.  Despite the slowdown, the result was
slightly better than expectations.  But that slower growth from the world`s
largest consumer of energy pressured domestic oil prices, which fell nearly
3 percent.

MATHISEN:  Meantime, U.S. builders are positively bubbly.  A periodic
report out today showed that U.S. home builders are the most optimistic
they have been about their business in ten years.  The National Association
of Home Builders says sales expectations for the next six months are
growing and that the softness in some markets is the result of labor
shortages and land availability.

HERERA:  Still ahead, ready to retire?  OK.  But how much income do
you really need?  And should you follow the traditional rules of


MATHISEN:  United Continental said it will provide more information on
the airline`s leadership soon.  This after the company`s CEO was
hospitalized late last week.  In a brief statement the airline offered no
new details on the condition of Oscar Munoz but that it is working on a
plan of action.  Munoz has been on the job just five weeks.  He took over
for the former CEO Jeff Smisek, who was forced to resign amid a scandal
related to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

HERERA:  Ferrari is one of the big stories on Wall Street this week.
The ultra luxury auto brand is expected to start trading on Wednesday with
shares in high demand.  But while Ferrari may be the headline grabber, the
bigger story may be how this IPO can rev up the global expansion of its
parent company, Fiat Chrysler, and, of course, its jeep brand.

Phil LeBeau explains.


ultra luxurious, and this week, they`ll be all over Wall Street as
investors snap up shares of Ferrari.  It`s being positioned as one of those
rare luxury brands that will trade at a premium like Prada and Hermes.  For
Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne, a successful Ferrari IPO is crucial to
FCA`s future, which is spending more than $50 billion over the next five
years to expand sales worldwide.

ADAM WYDEN, ADW CAPITAL:  I think the Jeep Renegade they`ve come out
with that they`re going to unleash in Latin America is kind of fitting the
gas prices and kind of the narrow road.  So, I think Jeep is a tremendous
global brand.

LEBEAU:  The key to Fiat Chrysler`s global expansion is Jeep, which is
primarily sold in North America.  But worldwide sales are expected to soar
as Jeep adds new plants in China and Brazil.  Paying for a portion of those
plants and FCA`s global expansion will be the proceeds that comes from
Ferrari`s IPO.

But some are worried Ferrari`s cachet and the value of Ferrari models
will slide if the automaker expands production once it becomes a stand-
alone company that needs to show investors it can grow profits.

have to almost in a sense keep growth low.  They can`t allow growth to pick
up to 10 percent, 15 percent, 20 percent.

LEBEAU:  So far, concern about Ferrari flooding the market with more
models has not dampened enthusiasm for its IPO.  In fact, demand for shares
of the Italian automaker is revving up ahead of its offering later this



MATHISEN:  Oprah Winfrey is buying a stake in Weight Watchers, and
that is where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus.”

The 10 percent investment comes amid declining membership at Weight
Watchers.  Cost cutting, increasing competition.  Now, half of the
company`s stock is owned by private investment firm Artal.  Fidelity and
Vanguard are also big owners.

Now, news of the investment watch these numbers — look at those
numbers — sent shares up 105 percent to $13.92.  That, folks, is the Oprah

Chip maker Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC) has made an offer to acquire PMC
Sierra for nearly $2.5 billion.  The rival chipmaker Skyworks Solutions
(NASDAQ:SWKS) recently offered $2 billion for PMC.  Now, the deal would be
subject to regulatory and shareholder approval, and it comes amid a wave of
consolidation in the semiconductor industry.  Shares of PMC Sierra finished
the day up more than 14 percent to $11.73.  Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC) dropped
5 1/2 percent to 35.28.

And SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) is reportedly in talks to sell itself to
western digital, this according to Bloomberg.  The talks are described as
advanced with a possible deal occurring this week.  SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK)
rose in after-hours trading finishing the regular session up about 3
percent.  Western Digital (NYSE:WDC), meantime, fell after hours.  It
finished the regular session up about 3 percent.

Switching to drugs now.  Valeant Pharmaceuticals under fire for the
way it prices some medicines, reported better than expected quarterly
profit, but the CEO predicted that the entire industry will face lower drug
price increases given the current environment.  It is also, it says,
considering a sale or spinoff of its neurological business, the unit that
tends to see those big price increases.  That sent shares of Valeant lower
by more than 7 percent to $163.83.

HERERA:  Weak sales of toys for girls hurt Hasbro`s quarterly results.
The toymaker reported lower than expected revenue, which was also hurt by a
strong dollar.  Revenue in the toys for girls category fell 28 percent.
It`s the fourth straight quarterly decline in that segment.  Shares dropped
7 percent to 72.33.

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) saw its revenue plunge in the third quarter,
citing weak North American production.  The company has already shaved
about 18,000 jobs this year alone, as part of a wide cost-cutting effort.
Shares of the company down about 1 percent to 37.36.

Supply chain solutions company Flextronics announced its third quarter
results after the bell today, beating analysts` expectations.  The stock
surged late today after those results.  It fell slightly in the regular
session to $11.20.

And the theme park operator Six Flags saw growth in attendance during
the quarter as well as higher park revenue.  Shares rose just slightly in
initial after-hours trading.  They finished the regular session about 2 1/2
percent higher to $50.23.

MATHISEN:  Key question here: how much money do you really need to
live on when you retire?

New research calls into question the familiar 80 percent income
replacement rule and suggests that some retirees might need to replace less
of their preretirement income than originally thought and others more.

John Sweeney, executive vice president with Fidelity Investments and
Planning and Advisory Services, is here to offer some insight.

John, welcome back.

The article in “The Wall Street Journal” today was interesting because
it points out when people retire, typically some of the draws on their
income disappear.  You`re not going to be paying social security tax or
maybe not as much or Medicare tax or maybe not as much, or contributing to
a 401(k).

But my question is what should I really be looking at?  My gross
income?  My after-tax income to replace?  Or do I want to look at my

Expenses are absolutely the place to start, Tyler.  So, when we talk to
people about planning for retirement we ask them to think about their
essential expenses, food, shelter, and health care.  And when we construct
an income plan for people, often, it`s centered around the starting number
that`s like 80 percent of the last dollar you that made before you retired.

And when you think about that number you`re exactly right.  You`re no
longer contributing to retirement.  So, if you`ve been saving 15 percent,
you`ve already been living on 85 cents of every dollar that you make.  You
have other contributions that presumably have evaporated.

The big nut here is, have you paid off your mortgage?  So, if you`ve
paid off your mortgage, then all of a sudden that`s a big expense that you
no longer have to pay as well.  Or if you can downsize and reduce your
monthly nut, those essential expenses start to go away.

HERERA:  You know, John, it`s interesting because so many people are
underinvested in their own future.  They`re underinvested in their
retirement.  And it does seem like the mortgage aspect of things is very
key.  If you can sell what you`re living in now, downsize, and don`t have a
mortgage, that`s a very big addition to what would normally be going right
out the door.

SWEENEY:  You`re exactly right, Sue.  People don`t need that big
suburban house with three or four bedrooms.  The kids have grown, they`ve
moved out of the house.  So, the question is, what do you really need to
live on and how can you pare down your expense structure?

The key, the wild card here, though, is health care.  So, a recent
study suggested people will need about $245,000 in retirement.  That`s per
couple, over the life of their retirement.  And oftentimes, health care
expenses are expenses that you didn`t have when you retired but you incur
some regular prescription over regular doctor visit that will require some
ongoing medical expenses.  Those expenses become essential once you require

MATHISEN:  So, $240,000 cash out of pocket through the lifetime of
your retirement per couple for medical care, right?

SWEENEY:  Per couple over a 30-year period.  Correct, Tyler.

MATHISEN:  Let me go back to expenses.  And you said that the key is
not to look at the replacement rates of income but to look at your
expenditures and see what they are.  Do retirees spend the same, more, or
less in retirement in sort of standard, you know, sort of inflation-
adjusted dollars as they did before they retired?

SWEENEY:  So there are three big drivers.  The first is your income.
The second is the lifestyle you hope to live in retirement.  And the third
is health care.

So, let`s start with income.  If you make $20,000 a year you basically
need about 100 cents of that $20,000 to replace in retirement.  If you make
$150,000, hopefully you`ve got some discretion in your income and you`re
already saving through the amount that you would need per dollar lower than
100 cents on the dollar.

Lifestyle in retirement.  If you`re going to live a fairly sedentary
lifestyle and not be traveling around the world, again that number comes
down.  If you`re going to be more active in spending and traveling more
than you were when you were working, that number`s a little bit higher.

And then health care`s essentially the inverse.  The worse your health
care, the higher your costs are going to be, the higher your out of pocket.

So, it`s essentially the combination of those three factors that give
you a replacement income rate that we talk about that somewhere between 60
cents on the dollar and 100 cents on the dollar depending on those three

MATHISEN:  All right, John.  Thank you very much for your help.  John
Sweeney with Fidelity.

And coming up, have you gotten your flu shot yet?  The big numbers
behind this $1.5 billion business.  In the first of our three-part series
on the flu-fighting industry.


HERERA:  The U.S. Treasury is softening its stance on China`s
currency.  In its semi-annual report on exchange rates, the department says
the yuan is, quote, “below its appropriate medium-term valuation”, end

Previously, treasury said the yuan was significantly undervalued.
China devalued its currency back in August.

MATHISEN:  Meantime, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says the debt ceiling
will be exhausted November 3rd.  And in an interview today, he said waiting
until the last minute to raise the nation`s borrowing authority would be


JACK LEW, TREASURY SECRETARY:  I think it`s very important to remember
that only Congress can act to raise the debt limit.  I will have used all
the tools that I have as of November 3rd.  And they were operating on cash.
And just think about it.  When you have a government of the United States
that`s a $4 trillion a year enterprise, where swings of a few billion
dollars can determine whether or not you have enough cash to pay your
bills, it`s ridiculous.  The debt limit needs to be raised.


MATHISEN:  Lew insisted that raising the debt limit gives the country
an ability to pay the bills on money already spent and that it does not
represent a commitment to new spending.

HERERA:  New rules for drones.  Federal regulators say they will
require most recreational drones to be registered with the government.
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx says the registration will make users
accountable and responsible and will protect public safety.


aircraft interfere, not help with our lives most recently in California,
during wildfire operations.  Some have come too close to airplanes and
airports.  And even at the U.S. Open tennis tournament in September, an
unmanned aircraft flying in a densely populated area near LaGuardia Airport
crashed inside Arthur Ashe Stadium during a match.


HERERA:  Foxx wants to have the registration requirement in place by
mid-December before the holidays because drones are expected to be a
popular holiday gift.

MATHISEN:  The recall of Takata airbags involves more than the 11
automakers that have already been identified.  According to the head of the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the agency will disclose
the additional car manufacturers at a public hearing Thursday.  The air bag
inflators, which can spray shrapnel, have been linked to at least eight
deaths and 100 injuries worldwide.

HERERA:  The Republican presidential candidates have been outlining
their plans for the economy and your money.  John Harwood recently spoke to
Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, and others.  Tonight, we hear from Rand Paul and
his take on why the Federal Reserve should be audited and what he really
thinks of former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.


said that he was a Republican, of course, appointed by George W. Bush, but
he no longer is because Republicans have been taken over or have given in
to know nothingism.  And he was talking about people who — like you who
want to audit the Fed.

self-examine and look back at how he`s been part of the problem and he
should make the answer, how is it a good thing to have price controls over
the price of money?  See, and this is the real contradiction that they
don`t quite get and they`re unwilling to get.  If you ask Ben Bernanke or
any of the other so-called free market economists whether or not they`re
for price controls of eggs or potatoes or bacon they`ll say oh, no, price
controls cause a distortion, they lead to shortages or abundance or food
rotting on the shelves.

And — but then you ask them about money and they`re like oh, no, we
should control the price of money.  But it`s a fallacy in their argument.
And if the price controls are bad for the market, they`re also bad for the
money as well.


HERERA:  Candidate Rand Paul also told John that he`s in favor of a
flat tax, smaller government, and term limits.

MATHISEN:  And finally tonight, more than 150 million Americans will
get vaccinated for the flu virus this year, and that means big business for
some well-known pharmaceutical companies.  In the first of a three-part
series, Meg Tirrell looks at the big numbers behind the flu-fighting


flu`s not that big a deal.  But every year, as many as 1 in 5 Americans get
sick with the virus.  Flu causes more than 200,000 hospitalizations and
thousands of deaths each year.  It takes an economic toll too, more than
$10 billion a year in direct medical costs.  Not to mention billions more
in lost productivity.

A lot of people say, oh, well, the flu, I get the flu, that`s not a
problem.  They probably don`t have the flu.  When you have influenza, it
can be a serious disease, particularly vulnerable people are infants,
pregnant women, the elderly greater than 65 years old, and people who have
underlying conditions like chronic lung disease or heart disease or

TIRRELL:  Vaccination rates have been on the rise, helped by a big
public health push.  In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention expanded its recommendation for flu vaccination to everyone over
six months old.

Now, about 44 percent of American adults and 59 percent of kids get
the flu vaccine.  That also means big business for manufacturers.  This
year, companies are making more flu vaccine than ever.  Up to 179 million
doses are expected to be distributed, up from about 150 million last year.

Public health officials say there should be enough vaccine for
everyone who wants to be vaccinated.  As of the start of October, just
under 100 million doses have been distributed.  The three biggest makers of
the flu shot make up 90 percent of all the doses distributed.  And
manufacturers tallied more than $1.5 billion in U.S. flu shot revenue last

also very important business.

TIRRELL:  Not all flu shots are the same.  Some offer protection
against three strains of the flu virus.  Those are called trivalent
vaccines.  Others offer protection against four.  Those are called
quadrivalent.  GlaxoSmithKline switched to the quadrivalent vaccine this
year, according to its chairman of vaccines, Moncef Slaoui.

SLAOUI:  We are making more vaccine than we have ever made.

TIRRELL:  There`s also a high dose version of the vaccine for people
older than 65 by Sanofi Pasteur.  As well as a nasal spray made by
AstraZeneca.  And so far this season, public health officials say the flu
vaccine is tracking well with the virus and it`s not too late to get



MATHISEN:  And our series on the big business of the flu continues
tomorrow, and Meg will show us how the flu shot gets made.

HERERA:  I`ve got to get mine.

MATHISEN:  Me too.

HERERA:  All right.  That`s it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT tonight.
I`m Sue Herera.  Thanks for joining us.

MATHISEN:  And I`m Tyler Mathisen.  Thanks from me as well.  Have a
great evening, everybody, and we hope to see you right back here tomorrow


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at The program is transcribed by CQRC
Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of
our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
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