Transcript: Nightly Business Report – October 9, 2015

NBR-ThumANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Sue Herera.

and oil. What drove it and will the rally continue into year end?

two largest public pension funds in the country are selling their holdings
in this already beaten down sector.

HERERA: Market monitor. Our guest tonight has a list of stocks he
says will rise 10 percent over the next year.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday,
October 9th.

Good evening, everyone. I`m Sue Herera.

MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen coming to you tonight from rainy New
York City.

What a week it was, folks, for stocks. The S&P had its best week,
believe it or not, of the year. The blue chip Dow index up six sessions in
a row. Its longest win streak since last December. And it wasn`t just
equities that saw strength. Oil logged a 9 percent gain during the past
five trading sessions.

Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 33 points to close at
17,084. The NASDAQ added 19, and the S&P 500 added a point. Not much, but
it still counts as a win. And look at the numbers for the week. The Dow
and S&P 500 both with gains of more than 3 percent.

Mary Thompson with more now on the big week for stocks.


activists and expectations for central banks will keep from raising
interest rates this year all helping to fuel strong gains on Wall Street
this week. Notes from the Federal Reserve`s last meeting suggests
policymakers remain dovish, concerned about the international markets and
the lack of U.S. inflation. All of this spurring a move into riskier
assets like stocks, as well as commodities.

Leading the commodities space — oil. It was up almost 9 percent this
week as it traded above but failed to close above that $50 a barrel mark.
The rally spurring big gains in energy stocks, though. The week`s best
performing sector.

Activist investor Nelson Peltz taking a $2.5 billion stake in General
Electric (NYSE:GE), the Dow`s second best performing stock. And DuPont,
another Peltz target, rising 14 percent after CEO Ellen Kullman said she`s
retiring next week.

And speaking of next week, big bank earnings. Earnings for General
Electric (NYSE:GE), inflation data, numbers on retail sales, as well as
industrial production all in focus.

From the New York Stock Exchange, I`m Mary Thompson.


HERERA: More now on oil, which did rally this week, but today failed
to settle above $50 a barrel. Domestic crude prices finished at $49.63, a
gain of 20 cents.

Jackie DeAngelis tells us why it`s more than just supply and demand
that`s driving prices higher.


prices gushing higher, finishing the week with a little less than 10
percent gain.

The catalyst? Tensions in the Middle East. Concerns over Russia`s
involvement in Syria and what it means for the region. Is Russia aligning
itself with Iran? And could Saudi Arabia plan a counterattack?

If that happens, could the Saudis and the Russians really sit down to
discuss oil prices?

JOHN KILDUFF, AGAIN CAPITAL PARTNER: That`s the only thing going for
this market. That`s certainly a big worry. It`s a big concern of mine.
And there`s a lot of room for error. And those errant missiles yesterday
just highlight how scary this is.

But the oil market does a good job after a while of digesting these
sorts of situations and I think that`s going to happen again here as we get
used to these misfires and other mis-actions by the Russians in Syria that
will allow the fundamentals again just to simply overwhelm things.

DEANGELIS: And the fundamental story hasn`t changed. U.S. production
is off its 9.6 million barrel per day July peak but declines are slow.
Now, slightly more than 9 million barrels per day.

Investors wondering, when will these numbers finally fall in a
meaningful way? Also seasonality. This is the time of year that crude
prices usually decline.

KILDUFF: You`re going to see huge increases in U.S. crude oil
inventories over the next few weeks because of this low refinery operating
rate. That`s really I think going to catch some of the people by surprise
and see what we did last year.

DEANGELIS: The million-dollar question, where do oil prices go from
here? Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) out just the other day, reiterating its
bearish call, saying that oil will stay lower for longer.



MATHISEN: So, will the rally in the oil and stock markets carry
through to the end of the year? Let`s find out from Joe Duran, the CEO of
United Capital.

Joe, welcome back.

Let`s start with stocks. The last two weeks have been very favorable
for equities. Do you think it can continue?

JOE DURAN, UNITED CAPITAL CEO: Oh, it can definitely continue. But I
think you should expect some kind of giveback. We`ve had a very strong
recovery. We`re now slightly overbought.

And so, when you have these very big whipsaws, it`s not unusual to go
back and have a retest. Probably won`t go back as low as we`ve been, but
you should expect this to be a lot more volatile over the next year than
we`ve been over the prior couple — the last five or six years where it`s
been remarkably calm.

HERERA: So, Joe, what about oil? You know, a 10 percent move after
being depressed for so long, are we putting in a bottom here or do you
expect this move to continue?

DURAN: No, I think — I don`t think it`s enough given the magnitude
of decline. Remember, we`re over $100 not that long ago. So, it`s really
just noise.

I do think we`re searching for a bottom and we fairly safely
established some $42 to $48 as sort of where we`re at. And candidly, as
long as we stay in that range, we don`t go below $40, stay above $42, and
the dollar kind of stays in the range, then a lot of the detractions to the
market have disappeared.

So, it`s very constructive if we can just stay in a predictable range
that`s not, you know, a 50 percent decline from here like we`ve already
experienced. So, I think we`ve found a base. It will continue to be
noisy. There`s not a good reason for it to go down a lot. There`s also
not a good reason for it to go up a lot.

MATHISEN: Stability, basically, is what you`re saying there.

Let`s switch back to equities now. Earnings get really into full
swing next week. A lot of the financials, some of the other big blue
chips. Has — the forecast for earnings for the third quarter is pretty
dour. Has the market already discounted that?

DURAN: Yes. It definitely has. Remember, we`ve already marked in a
third consecutive revenue decline into the market. It`s priced in.

I think what you`re seeing now is actually people start — if oil can
continue the recovery it had, we`ll start to amend their forecast up.
What`s interesting is a lot of the forecasts for earnings decline is really
led by commodities, and if we get any stabilization that`s going to be

And so I think you`ve seen the worst of it. It`s really disappointing
to not see more revenue growth as a whole. But what you would see is that
a lot of this is priced in. A lot of the companies that are going to warn
have warned already. So, I think most of the noise is out of it. My
biggest concern candidly is what happens in December if we get into another
debate about the ceiling, the debt ceiling in the U.S.

That`s really the biggest concern I have right now.

MATHISEN: Right. We have to leave it there. Joe, thank you very
much. Have a great weekend. Joe Duran with United Capital.

HERERA: Well, speaking of oil, the oil market is also watching
developments in Washington. The House of Representatives today voted to
lift the 40-year-old ban on oil exports which was first put in place after
the 1970s Arab oil embargo. The oil industry argues that lifting the ban
would create jobs. But the measure faces a much tougher fight in the

MATHISEN: And, Sue, a petition in the House of Representatives to
revive the export import bank drew enough signatures to force a vote on the
issue. It will take place later this month. The federal agency provides
loans to overseas customers of U.S. companies like Boeing (NYSE:BA) and
General Electric (NYSE:GE). But the measure is likely to stall in the
Senate, where the Republican majority leader Mitch McConnell is opposed to
keeping the bank open.

HERERA: To some economic news now. Prices for imported goods fell
for the third straight month in September, but the decline in import prices
of 0.1 percent was smaller than expected, and that smaller decline could
bolster the Federal Reserve`s case for raising interest rates. In the
past, Fed Chief Janet Yellen has said that import prices have been a major
factor in keeping inflation well below the Fed`s 2 percent target.


MATHISEN: The low rate of inflation was just one of the issues the
president of the New York fed discussed today with Steve Liesman. In an
exclusive interview, Bill Dudley shared his take on the economy and when
the Central Bank may decide to raise interest rates for the first time in
nearly a decade.


the Fed could hike rates in October?

you know, the chair has said and I agree with her that everything`s on the
table. At the same time, have we seen enough information between September
and October to convince us to do in October what we didn`t do in September,
would be the question I would ask.

LIESMAN: And how would you answer that?

DUDLEY: I`m not going to prejudge what we`re going to do at the
October meeting. I mean, I think every meeting should be a live meeting
where we go into the meeting and assess the evidence and assess how that
weighs on our outlook for the economy, both with respect to the labor
market and inflation, and then use that as the basis for making a decision
about whether it`s time to lift off.

LIESMAN: Dennis Lockhart said he still thinks a rate hike is likely
this year. Are you in that camp as well?

DUDLEY: Based on my forecast, yes, I am. But it`s a forecast. And
we`re going to get a lot of data between now and December.

So, it`s not a commitment. So if I say I think it`s likely this year,
it doesn`t mean that I`m committing to doing it this year. It`s just based
on my expectation of how the economy is most likely to evolve.

You know, there`s certainly a risk that the economy evolves in a very
different way than I expect and, obviously, be totally inappropriate for me
to not take that into consideration in terms of what I think is appropriate
for monetary policy.

LIESMAN: I can`t not ask this question. The possibility of a
shutdown in Washington and the impact there, is that something that
animates your policy making right now?

DUDLEY: I don`t think so. I mean, I think, first of all, I would
expect cooler heads to prevail. I think it`s crazy to talk — even think
about not paying the debts that you are obligated to pay over time.

Obviously, we have to take the world as it is, though, and if it
involves in some crazy which I think would be totally inappropriate, that,
you know, would obviously factor into our decision — just like any other
development would factor into our decision-making.


MATHISEN: And as for the labor market and last month`s disappointing
jobs report, Dudley said it is important not to put too much weight on one
report because payroll numbers can be volatile month to month.

HERERA: Chicago`s Fed president, Charles Evans, also spoke today. In
prepared remarks, he said the Federal Reserve should move modestly when it
does decide to raise rates, but he declined to say exactly when he would
like to see that first rate hike.


MATHISEN: And still ahead, why there was confusion today over the
security of those new chip credit cards.


MATHISEN: A warning from Dow Jones today. The company says it found
evidence that hackers have infiltrated its publications, including “The
Wall Street Journal” and “Barron`s” dating back to 2012. Information from
at least 3,500 individuals may have been accessed. Officials from the
company said the breach is likely part of a broader campaign involving
other companies.

HERERA: And confusion today over just how secure those new chip
credit and debit cards really are. First, the FBI put out a warning about
their vulnerabilities, only to take it down later in the day.

So, Eamon Javers has been following this story for us and he joins us
now from Washington.

That certainly is an unusual turn of events.

is, Sue. This is one of those only in Washington tales that really tells
you how this town actually works. Let me walk you through the timeline

So, last night, the FBI put out this alert saying that by the way,
those chip cards, the credit cards that have just been issued to all credit
card holders or most of them here in the United States or most of them as
of October 1st are still potentially vulnerable to fraud, and in that
alert, they urged people to use what they call chip and pin technology.
That is, the chip plus a pin number that you have to enter.

The National Retail Federation, which represents retailers across the
country who`ve all been installing new equipment to deal with these new
cards, took that as a victory for their side in a long-running fight
they`ve had with the banking industry. The retail federation said that
they`d like to see a higher level of security, not just chip and signature,
which is where we actually are with security on credit cards these days,
but they`d like to see that whole chip and pin, and they said the FBI is
endorsing their side of this argument.

The bankers, though, said, no, no, no, wait a second, the FBI might
not know exactly what they`re talking about here. The bankers contacted
the FBI beginning last night.

And then this afternoon the FBI actually took this alert down from
their website. They gave us a statement just a little while ago in which
they said, “We are in the process of reviewing the PSA for clarity.”

As of this moment as I sit here right now, that PSA, the alert has
been removed from the FBI`s Web site. We don`t know when it`s coming back
up. We don`t know what it`s going to say. And we don`t know ultimately
where the FBI`s going to come down in this long-running debate between the
retailers and the big banks, Sue.

HERERA: Ah, the story continues. Something we know you`ll be
following for us, I know, Eamon. Thank you.

JAVERS: You bet.

HERERA: Eamon Javers in Washington.


MATHISEN: All right, Sue.

California`s going to become the first state to divest from coal. The
government signed into law a measure that requires state pension funds to
drop all coal investments.

And as Hampton Pearson tells us, it`s another blow to a sector that
has already fallen on hard times.


signed by California Governor Jerry Brown gives the state`s two largest
pension funds two years to divest their investments in coal companies.
Environmentalists say this is an important market signal on climate change.

of no confidence in the future of fossil fuels. It puts a value on our
obligation to protect future generations from the dangers of climate
change, and it puts a price tag, if you will, on the dangerous carbon
pollution that`s driving climate change.

PEARSON: An estimated $100 million is invested in coal mines, in
pension funds for public employees and teachers. Their total assets top
$475 billion.

The head of the California pension fund says it will begin
negotiations with major call companies about their portfolio holdings. A
statement reads in part, “Climate change represents risk and opportunities
for a long-term investor like CalPERS.”

But pension investor experts say the future developments for state
workers should not be put at risk by the debate over climate change.

pension funds everywhere is whether politicians should be telling investors
how to invest.

PEARSON: Coal has been taking its lumps in the commodities markets
lately, down more than 50 percent in the Dow Jones coal index just in the
last six months. Meanwhile, New York and Massachusetts are considering
similar legislation.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.


HERERA: United Continental predicting sunny skies ahead. And that`s
where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

The carrier is hiking its profit margin forecast for the third
quarter. This is partially due to a new credit card agreement for frequent
fliers, which the airline says will provide it with extra revenue. Shares
rose more than 6.5 percent to $55.71.

American Airlines also rallying today. The company reported a 7
percent increase in traffic last month. That`s the biggest jump in that
metric for the carrier this year. Shares were nearly 7 percent higher to

HERERA: Well, Sue, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has begun a clinical
trial of its experimental Ebola vaccine in Sierra Leone. This is — there
is currently no licensed vaccine or cure for the deadly disease. The Dow
component rose slightly today to $95.37.

SolarWinds, a company that makes software that businesses use to
manage their data networks, says it is exploring strategic alternatives.
The company could pursue a sale. Its market value about $3.5 billion. And
the stock soared more than 13 percent today to $47.49.

And EMC (NYSE:EMC) saw its shares rise on continued reports of a
potential deal with Dell (NASDAQ:DELL). As we told you last night, Dell
(NASDAQ:DELL) could buy the company in what would be the biggest tech tie
up ever. Today, CNBC reports that Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) could offer at least
$30 dollars a shares for EMC (NYSE:EMC). And shares of EMC (NYSE:EMC) up
2.5 percent to $27.86. Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), as you probably recall, is now
privately held.

HERERA: And now to our market monitor who likes big cap U.S. stocks.
He is John Traynor, chief investment at People`s United Bank`s wealth
management division which manages $5.5 billion.

When he was on in January, he recommended Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), which
is down about 11 percent. Express (NYSE:EXPR) Scripts, which is off 2
percent. And Whole Foods which has gotten clobbered, it`s down about 32

Welcome back. Nice to have you back, John.

you, Sue. Nice to be back.

HERERA: Let`s start, first of all, with whether you still hold those
three stocks? And secondly, what do you make of the risk gone in this
market this week?

TRAYNOR: Well, the first two that you mentioned, we still do own, we
still like them. Whole foods we sold in the spring. We did not see the
continuation of the good news me had in the fall. The comp store sales
started to fall off. So, we decided to step aside.

We have it on a watch. We may go back in but we don`t own that stock
now. As it comes to the risk on we`ve seen that so far this month, the
stocks and the sectors that didn`t perform well in the third quarter have
been the leaders so far this month. So, for the first few days of this
month, the risk on trade is working.

MATHISEN: Let`s get you to walk us through some of your picks this
time around. You have three big blue chips beginning with Disney
(NYSE:DIS). Are you not concerned with something that a lot of investors
have been as you see that falloff there in August, and that is cord cutting
and maybe reduced fees for some of the cable properties?

TRAYNOR: Yes, we use that falloff as a buying opportunity for Disney
(NYSE:DIS). And the big news with Disney (NYSE:DIS), the company`s doing
very well, but the big news investors focused on was really ESPN, and the
potential for cable companies — for them to lose cable subscribers. But
if you look at Disney (NYSE:DIS), my clients, your viewers, they want to
own what Disney (NYSE:DIS) produces.

So, there`s a whole field of narrow casting that we think the street
is missing, that Disney (NYSE:DIS) will be able to deliver that content to
many more individuals. We think this is a great buying opportunity for
Disney (NYSE:DIS).

HERERA: All right. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is next on the list with a
price target over the next 12 months of $131 per share. Play on the
housing market?

TRAYNOR: It is. And the real key for your viewers is to focus on
household formation. Since the end of the recession, formations through
the end of 2014, household formations were running in the basically 500,000
to 600,000 per year. Since the beginning of this year, they`ve been
averaging over a million six per year, which is fantastic. Those are all
new formations, those are all new home buyers, now condo buyers. So,
there`s a tremendous pent-up demand for what Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is
selling sailing. The wind is at their back.

MATHISEN: All right. Let`s move on to the third one, which is
UnitedHealthcare. How high, how soon, and why?

TRAYNOR: You know, we like UnitedHealthcare for a couple of reasons.
It`s a big beneficiary of the Affordable Care Act, which everybody is aware
of. But as the dominant player in the industry, some of their competitors
are merging to achieve the mass that UnitedHealthcare has. They are
driving cost containment as we move forward and that`s going to be a very
positive story for them going forward. They`re gaining new customers
through increased insurance. They`re a real beneficiary to the Affordable
Care Act.

HERERA: All right. And the price target in the next 12 months is
$129 per share.

John, thank you very much. Have a great weekend.

TRAYNOR: Thank you. You too.

HERERA: John Traynor with People`s United Wealth Management.

Well, Sue, crude prices may have risen recently, but they are still
below year-ago levels and many oil production companies have yet to feel
the full effects of low prices.

But as Morgan Brennan explains, that time may be near.


continuing to mount for energy companies. Many oil and gas producers are
currently grappling with the possibility of shrinking credit from banks.

But as 2015 comes to a close, another threat looms — a significant
rollback in producers` ability to hedge commodity prices. According to a
new report from market research firm IHS (NYSE:IHS), just 11 percent of
total North American production is hedged heading into 2016, compared to
nearly 30 percent right now.

companies are well-hedged and 2016 will receive higher revenues and
stronger cash flow. And as a benefit of the higher hedge prices that
they`ve locked in. And this will give them more flexibility and
determining their plans and capital spending next year.

BRENNAN: Hedging has been crucial for oil companies to weather the
collapse in energy over the past year. The process allows producers to
lock in on commodity prices in the futures market, a move that can protect
against plunging prices.

With crude nearly 50 percent lower than a year ago, hedging
protections have been a saving grace for companies like Pioneer National
Resources, which recently said it expects to realize $71 a barrel in its
2015 hedging program, and $65 to $66 next year.

The rollback in 2016 leave companies, particularly those with higher
debt levels, more exposed to market prices, leading to financial difficulty
if oil stays lower for longer. IHS (NYSE:IHS) says smaller companies like
XO Resources and Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK) are at risk of serious
liquidity issues, thanks to little hedging. Also mid-size names like
Sandridge Energy (NYSE:SD) and Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL).

And here`s why this matters so much. If energy prices remain this
low, producers that aren`t hedged could see revenues plunge further and
access to credit dry up. Energy investment firm Tudor Pickering Holt
expects the pullback in hedging to reduce cash flow for the overall
industry by $10 billion next year, resulting in an additional 20 percent
decline in capital expenditures, meaning less drilling, more layoffs, and
for some poorly positioned energy companies, the growing threat of



HERERA: Coming up, a big change is happening in the health care
industry. And if it all goes smoothly, it could lead to better care.


HERERA: Here`s what to watch for next week. Earnings season gets
under way with a handful of Dow components reporting. The producer price
index, retail sales, and industrial production are all due out. And the
Nobel Prize in economics will be announced. That`s what to watch next

MATHISEN: And I will not be winning it.

Medical coding, it doesn`t sound exciting, but it is an important part
of our health care system. It determines who gets paid and how much in
many cases. For every diagnosis and procedure, there`s a code that
describes it. And now, there are thousands more of them. And any problems
getting claims processed could disrupt this critical industry.

Bertha Coombs reports from Watertown, Massachusetts.


working round the clock at Athena Health since the October 1st launch of
the nation`s new medical coding and billing system known as ICD-10.

Making sure things go smoothly for their physician clients, CEO
Jonathan Bush says in the first week, more than a million claims were
submitted with fewer than 500 rejected for coding errors.

been delayed a couple of times. So, we`ve had fire drills before to get
ready for this. So by the time it actually happened, it went off smoothly.

COOMBS: The transition was delayed for two years during the launch of
the Affordable Care Act, because it involved a major overhaul for the U.S.
health IT system with a fivefold increase to the nation`s medical codes.

We now have up to 68,000 diagnosis codes and 76,000 procedure codes that we
are required to report for billing and regulatory purposes.

COOMBS: The idea is that more detailed health data will lead to
better care and eventually better health outcomes. But as hospitals like
MonteFiore New Rochelle outside New York City, the added complexity has
meant months of retraining for everyone on staff. So far, it`s paid off.

RUIZ: We have had no glitches.

COOMBS: But surgeon Andrew Kleinman says the vertical is still out.

a little early to see how the payment is going to be affected, which is the
big thing we are worried about.

COOMBS: Especially when it comes to his private practice.

KLEINMAN: And a hospital it`s great. We have a lot of backup. We
have people who are running IT in my office. I`m the chief of IT.

COOMBS: Jonathan Bush says he thinks it will take a few billing
cycles to know just how well the system works.

BUSH: You might want to check back in. It`s between kind of day 30
and 45 when some of the slower more manual payers are getting around to
sending out their first payments.

COOMBS: Still, after the disastrous launch of the
insurance exchange, health officials are likely breathing a sigh of relief
for a smooth launch this time around.



HERERA: And that does it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight.
I`m Sue Herera. Have a great weekend, Ty.

MATHISEN: And you too, Sue.

I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a great weekend, everyone. And we will hope
to see you right back here Monday evening.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at The program is transcribed by CQRC
Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of
our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as
investment advice. (c) 2015 CNBC, Inc.

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