BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Twenty dollar oil? A
well-known Wall Street firm says it`s possible, as the world remains awash
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Life-saving information.
That`s how federal health officials are describing a study on blood
pressure that could not only impact one in three Americans but also a major
part of the drug industry.
GRIFFETH: Market monitor: why a five-star fund manager has big hopes
for small cap stocks.
All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for this Friday,
September the 11t.
Good evening, everybody, and welcome. I`m Bill Griffeth, in tonight
for Tyler Mathisen.
HERERA: And I`m Sue Herera, always good to have you with us.
GRIFFETH: Thank you for having me back.
HERERA: Well, we begin with oil tonight and a new government — a new
report, rather, from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) that says there is a chance
prices could plummet to $20 a barrel and the probability of that happening
is rising. The reasons, according to the firm are pretty simple,
persistent oversupply with few signs of letting up. And that report was
part of the reason why crude futures fell 3 percent today to settle at
$44.63 a barrel.
But not everybody agrees with that scenario. Jackie DeAngelis has
more from New York Mercantile Exchange.
JACKIE DEANGELIS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The crude
reality when it comes to oil? $20 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs
(NYSE:GS). Goldman`s latest crude note entitled, “Lower for Longer?” says
the potential for oil prices to fall to 20 is increasingly likely as
storage continues to fill.
JEFFREY CURRIE, GOLDMAN SACHS: There is a lot of uncertainty on what
lever will create to be balancing in the market. It could be U.S.
production. A $40 barrel, which is where our base case is set, is the
level at which you see a drop in drilling. We saw it today in terms of the
However, if you don`t bring global production down long enough
underneath demand to create that rebalancing, then you`re likely to slam
into storage capacity constraints and that would put that downward
DEANGELIS: Due to increase supply from the U.S. shale players,
Goldman base case calls for $30 a barrel oil in a month, $42 in three
months, $40 in six months, and $45 in a year.
But some are skeptical.
JEFF GROSSMAN, BRG: I personally think the oil is not going to go
that much lower here. I think once we get to these levels, the market is
very susceptible to the up side. You will see an increase in consumption.
You will see backing you have in production, and that`s how markets work.
At these levels, it`s not that improbable to think this market could go up.
DEANGELIS: Just this week, both the Energy Information Agency and
International Energy Agency lowered forecasts for U.S. production. The EIA
saying nearly nine million barrels a day by 2016 and IEA seeing output
declining for non-OPEC producers at its steepest rate in two decades next
If oil prices were to go down to $20 a barrel, that could be great
news for consumers, bringing the national average for a gallon of regular
gas to possibly $1.12. We haven`t seen that since 2002, this is according
to the Oil Price Information Service.
So for the moment, it is anyone`s guess. There was a time when
Goldman called for $200 oil and it was a no show.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jackie DeAngelis.
GRIFFETH: And there`s another problem for oil that could come from
the nation`s refiners. Kate Kelly explains why from the famous Whiting
refinery in Indiana. It`s the largest in the Midwest and the seventh
largest around the nation.
KATE KELLY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Now that the all
important summer driving season is over, some gasoline manufacturers are
taking the opportunity to do much needed repairs. All around the Midwest,
in places like Ponca City, Oklahoma, St. Paul Park, Minnesota, and
Coffeyville, Kansas, refineries, facilities that convert crude oil into
forms of gasoline, like diesel, unleaded and jet fuel, are taking some or
all of their operations offline to do what they called turnarounds or
seasonal maintenance. Such maintenance which typically needs to be done
every three to five years is not unusual, and is, in fact, essential to
keeping the refineries running smoothly.
But oil producers and analysts are paying particularly close attention
this year because the crude prices in the U.S. have taken such a beating.
And they note that with refineries, with some of the biggest buyers of
crude oil, slowing their purchases during this repair process, the lack of
demand could create yet another letdown in U.S. oil.
Here in Whiting, Indiana, where BP runs a major refiner, an unexpected
mechanical issue forced a temporary outage in August, shooting up gas
prices in the area and frustrating motorists.
BP has the plant up and running now, but it soon to go into seasonal
maintenance anyway, which will almost certainly slow its crude purchases
for a time. Analysts however say don`t worry too much about a hike in pump
prices this time around. For one thing, the long-term planning that goes
into seasonal repairs means that gas providers have time to look for
alternative fuel suppliers.
For another, kids are back to school and prime vacation time is over –
– meaning that consumer demand is likely to be lower anyway.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kate Kelly in Whiting, Indiana.
HERERA: And our next guest says there is a chance gasoline prices
could fall to $1.50 a gallon. He is Kyle Cooper, director of research with
IAF Advisors, an energy research firm.
Welcome, Kyle. Nice to have you here.
KYLE COOPER, IAF ADVISORS: Thank you, sue.
HERRERA: So, what`s going to drive it to $1.50? And what do you
think of Goldman`s projections of seeing lower crude and gasoline prices?
COOPER: You know, the latest data has shown a tightening of the
supply-demand balance, but as I pointed out, it really hasn`t tightened
So, inventories continue to build, and thus, you know, that`s
obviously going to be a negative to the market overall. Now, I would say
that the spike from two weeks ago to $37.75, prices have held up, and the
market has kind of found a footing, overall. But today`s price action was
weak. And as just mentioned, this refinery maintenance season by most
accounts is going to be rather large, meaning there`s more refineries taken
Those headlines every week on Wednesday, when the EIA publishes their
data of large crude builds, it`s probably going to put a little bit of a
negative sentiment into the market and that I think is what could possibly
drive down those prices.
GRIFFETH: So, I`m a little confused, though. If they take those
refiners offline for maintenance purposes, why would gasoline prices go
down? Because you`re taking that much gasoline off the inventories.
COOPER: Well, as mentioned, they have a lot of time to store up.
There`s actually not a shortage of gasoline or diesel right now.
COOPER: So, there is plenty of product all of the way around. So,
it`s going to be an overall market sentiment, and what might keep prices —
gasoline prices from going down much further is the fact that the crack,
the differential between gasoline and crude, does widen. Just crude in 20
bucks doesn`t mean we`re going to see $1.50 gasoline. That might hang
around at $1.75 or $2 because, as you mentioned, the supply of refined
products is being reduced just as the demand for crude is.
HERERA: Let`s look at maintenance period coming up. Where do you see
the longer-term trend in gasoline prices, Kyle?
COOPER: I think we`re going to see prices in the $2.50 to $3 type
range. Clearly, the refiners actually just added about 55,000 barrels of
capacity this last week according to the EIA. So, the EIA — so, U.S.
refiner continues to add capacity and is getting better and better at
making gasoline from crude. So, I don`t see a real shortage in gasoline,
and I think we`ll see an eventual rise to probably more like 50 or 60.
But I think that`s a long time away, `16, back half of `16, `17, even
in terms of WTI prices. There still remains a lot of supply out there for
the overall global market.
GRIFFETH: Quickly before we let you go, there is a lot of debate
about what the impact of these lower prices would have on this — on the
burgeoning industry here in the United States, which has wrecked havoc with
OPEC, bringing so much new oil online here. Is this going to be good or
bad? Do they become net losers as a result of these lower prices?
COOPER: Well, certainly, the dynamics of the U.S. industry have
changed tremendously. From being both importers of crude and products,
we`re now exporters of refined products. There is a large push to try to
take the limitation on crude exports off, so that we can export directly
But, clearly, the dynamics have changed when the U.S. is now producing
over 9 million barrels and importing over 7.5 million barrels. Those
dynamics have changed tremendously on the effect of the overall economy. I
do think lower prices overall are great for the American economy, but they
are not as good as they used to be, because now there is a lot less
producers, there`s a lot less capital expenditures by the companies here in
the U.S. that was previously being spent, as a result of high oil prices.
HERERA: All right. We`ll leave it there, Kyle. Have a great
COOPER: Thank you.
HERERA: Kyle Cooper with IAF Advisors.
GRIFFETH: And the cheaper gas and the oil prices are keeping
inflation in check at this point. Producer prices which measures price
changes before they reach the consumer level, it was flat in the month of
August, according to the Labor Department. Wholesale gasoline prices fell
by more than 7 percent last month. That was the biggest drop we`ve seen
since January. Home heating oil prices fell 11 percent and that helped off
set the rise in prices in other parts of the economy.
HERERA: Consumer sentiment took a tumble in September. The index
fell to the lowest level in a year as Main Street felt the effects of a
very volatile stock market.
The chief economist behind the survey says consumers are anticipating
a weaker economy because of the slowdown abroad. New York Fed President
William Dudley last month cited sentiment as a key early gauge of evidence
from any kind of trouble tied to market volatility.
GRIFFETH: And despite that decline in oil prices that we told you
about, the major averages managed to close higher. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 102 points on Friday to close at 16,433. The
NASDAQ gained 26, and the S&P was up 8. The Dow had its best week since
late March. It gained about 2 percent. NASDAQ and the S&P had their best
weeks since mid July.
HERERA: Lower is better. That is the conclusion of a landmark
clinical study on blood pressure that could prompt doctors to more
aggressively treat patients over 50. And as Meg Tirrell reports, blood
pressure is a big business for the drug industry.
MEG TIRRELL, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The National
Institutes of Health is calling the findings potentially life saving. In
preliminary results in a study published today, the NIH found that lowering
blood pressure more than current guidelines recommend resulted in
significantly reducing cardiac events and deaths among adults over 50 years
Normal blood pressure is considered 120 over 80. That top number is
known as systolic blood pressure. And that`s what this study focused on.
It found that lowering that number to 120, rather than the current
guidelines of 140 reduced hearth attack, hearth failure and stroke by
almost a third, and cut the risk of death by almost a quarter.
The results could have a big impact on the one in three Americans who
has high blood pressure, which is a leading risk factor for health problems
including heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease.
Some experts, though, cautioned the results are preliminary and need
to be confirmed when the study is completed. For the drug industry, high
blood pressure is big business. Blood pressure medications brought in $12
billion in revenue in 2014 in the U.S. according to industry researcher IMS
Health. More than 700 million prescriptions for drug pressure drugs are
And though drug makers like Novartis, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Allergan
(NYSE:AGN) have all worked in the space, the most popular medicines now are
generic. Investor Les Funtleyder says the NIH`s findings makes for more
investment in developing new drugs.
LES FUNTLEYDER, INVESTOR: I`m sure data like this will encourage that
sort of thing. Not unlike what we saw in some of the anti-infectives and
antivirals, you know, data from the government tends to spur development.
TIRRELL: The initial findings of this study suggest that for blood
pressure, less may really be more.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Meg Tirrell.
GRIFFETH: And still ahead, a five standard fund manager who is easily
outperforming the market over the past year will tell us which stocks he is
investing in right now.
GRIFFETH: Most cars will soon have automatic brakes. Ten automakers
have now agreed to make that technology a standard feature in their new
vehicles. The sensors can detect when another vehicle is stop ahead and
warn the driver. Now, if the driver doesn`t react, the car will slam on
the breaks. The deal was announced by the Department of Transportation.
It includes Audi, BMW, Ford, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Mazda, Mercedes
Benz, Tesla, Toyota (NYSE:TM), Volkswagen and Volvo.
HERERA: Meantime, the Food and Drug Administration issuing new safety
rules in the wake of the most recent food-born illnesses and outbreaks.
For the first time, food manufacturers will be required to develop plans to
prevent such outbreaks, which has stem from contaminated fruit, spinach,
and peanut butter.
GRIFFETH: Corn prices rose today after the Department of Agriculture
report trimmed its production estimates. The reason is adverse weather in
the Midwest. But the record rain in Texas could be one of the reasons why
beef prices are heading lower.
Jane Wells has the story.
JANE WELLS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Beef bull run is
Just ask Texas rancher Phil Sadler.
PHIL SADLER, TEXAS RANCHER: The market is a little softer.
WELLS: It`s about time. Here is why beef prices shot up and are
starting to come down. Four years ago, large cattle states like Texas were
hit with a historic drought. That`s when we first met Sadler.
SADLER: When you walk across these pastures, it`s almost like walking
on crackers, the grass crunches.
WELLS: Feeding his cattle was so expensive, he slashed his herd by a
third, so did everyone else, creating a short term glut of beef that sent
prices down before they turned up, way up with strong domestic demand in
Four years later, Texas has gone from drought to record rain.
SADLER: This is a God send. This is nature therapy (ph).
WELLS: Sadler is rebuilding his herd and so is everyone else. He
said after getting record prices for his cattle last year, they`re now down
15 percent. Also driving down prices is the strong dollar.
Stevens Report beef exports fell 10 percent in July, with a 36 percent
drop in China.
SADLER: And while they`re not considered a big beef consuming
country, there`s a lot of mouths over there, and they`re eating a little
bit of beef.
WELLS: But don`t expect to see prices plunge quickly. Ranchers are
rebuilding their herd slowly, using their own cows, because buying outside
cattle got really expensive. Sadler says when he was liquidating his herd
in 2011, he was getting about $1,000 an animal. They now cost three times
SADLER: So there is a sizable investment involved.
WELLS: In fact, some states report increases in cattle stealing.
It`s all part of the ebb and flow of supply and demand, currencies and
water. But after years of skyrocketing prices, beef may soon be what`s
affordable for dinner.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Jane Wells, Los Angeles.
HERERA: Marvell Technology shares plunge on news of an internal
probe, and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.
The firm disclosing today that it has launched an internal
investigation into its revenue recognition practices. The company also
says it will report a loss in the second quarter. Shares tumbled 16
percent to $8.84.
Target (NYSE:TGT) is cutting ties with the apparel maker Cherokee
(NASDAQ:CHKE) Corporation. The retailer decided not to renew its license
with the company, which expires in 2017. That`s a big blow to Cherokee
(NASDAQ:CHKE), which got nearly half of its total revenue from Target
(NYSE:TGT) last year. Cherokee (NASDAQ:CHKE) slid 38 percent to $14.82.
Target (NYSE:TGT) rose 1 percent to $77.88.
GRIFFETH: Meanwhile, Kroger (NYSE:KR) saw its earnings rise 25
percent last quarter as sales were better than expected. The grocery chain
also hiked its full-year outlook. Shares jumped by 5 percent as a result,
And Mattress Firm disappointed with a miss on both the top and bottom
lines. The company also slashed its full-year earnings outlook, blaming
uncertainty in the oil markets as one of the reasons. Shares of Mattress
Firm plunged by 23 percent today to $46.24.
HERERA: And now to our market monitor who likes some small cap names
that he says have big growth potential. He is Andrew Morey and he runs the
ASTON/LMCG, a $7 billion small cap growth fund which is up nearly 10
percent over the past year. He is a Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) rated five-
star fund manager and this is his first time on the program.
Welcome. It`s nice to have you, Andrew.
ANDREW MOREY, ASTON/LMCG: Great. Thanks to be here.
HERERA: Let`s start with your stock picks, because I`m fascinated by
some of them. Sotheby`s is one, with the price target on it between $48
and $50 a piece.
Why do you like the stock?
MOREY: Well, Sotheby`s has relatively new management and new CEO
who`s implemented cost controls. We`re seeing some early returns of that
already. They actually declared a relatively large share repurchase in the
summer. And maybe most importantly for Sotheby`s, it is an auction house.
We all know about it.
The fall auctions, we have some early indications. There is quite a
lot of art coming to auction and that should help revenue growth and
earnings per share.
So, again, we think $50 plus is in the cards for Sotheby`s. It`s
actually pulled back recently. So, we think it`s timely.
GRIFFETH: You`re bullish, we should say, on housing and the
automotive industry in this economy right now and representing automotives.
You like this company Lithia Motors (NYSE:LAD). Why them?
MOREY: Yes. So, Lithia Motors (NYSE:LAD), again, a Midwestern and
Western regional, a little bit more suburban and rural car dealer, growing
again with auto sales as we have seen, now 17 million plus units in the
U.S. So, obviously, they benefitted from that. They`ve also done some
acquisitions of more one off dealers whether it be Legacy family is looking
to sell and monetize their interests or even larger entities. That has
been relatively very accretive, so growing earnings per share and cash flow
even more, and we see more of that in the future for Lithia.
HERERA: All right. Let`s finish up with Synchronoss Technology. It`s
been a top 10 stock in your portfolio for sometime now. Tell us why you
MOREY: Yes. So, Synchronoss provides activation and cloud services
to many different wireless providers. So, think of it as the Verizon
(NYSE:VZ) Wireless. So, when a consumer gets one of the newest iPhones,
and buys that over the web from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), or gets it from their
Verizon (NYSE:VZ) or AT&T (NYSE:T) provider and activates that, Verizon
(NYSE:VZ) or AT&T (NYSE:T) actually doesn`t activate that phone, that`s
actually Synchronoss doing it for them for a fee.
So, needless to say, with all the new smartphones being sold, that
will benefit Synchronoss again. And also, as you and I store more things
in the cloud via our mobile device, whether it`d be music, video, movies,
contacts, all of that again, Synchronoss would store and Verizon (NYSE:VZ)
or AT&T (NYSE:T) Wireless would pay them for it.
MOREY: So, again, very much a growth area. And we see that
HERERA: All right. Andrew, we`ll leave it there. Thank you so much
for joining us. Andrew Morey with the ASTON/LMCG small cap growth fund.
GRIFFETH: Well, the marijuana industry is quickly growing into big
business. And more states are legalizing its use. And soon, there will be
a new medicinal dispensary in the Big Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG) introduces us to the entrepreneurs behind that
KATE ROGERS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: If there`s any
doubt about where the national momentum is headed on legalized marijuana
usage, think about this — come January 2016, there will be a medicinal
marijuana dispensary right off of Union Square in New York City. The store
will be run by Columbia Care, which also has operations in Washington, D.C.
and Arizona. It`s one of the five companies awarded a license to operate
in New York state under the 2014 Compassionate Care Act.
CEO Nicholas Vita, a former investment banker at Goldman Sachs
(NYSE:GS) said they`re looking to legitimize the conversation about
medicinal marijuana and its usage.
NICHOLAS VITA, COLUMBIA CARE: We want to focus on the discussions
around dosing, around efficacy, and around medical uses of marijuana rather
than that sort of political aspects of the recreational or adult use
ROGERS: New York is hardly the first state to legalize medical usage
of marijuana. Twenty-two other states and Washington, D.C., the first
state to legalize medical cannabis was California in 1996 and four of those
states have legalized pot for recreational use.
Another company that was awarded a license is Illinois-based
PharmaCann. It was founded by two husband-wife duos with legal and
CHRISTINA LEJA: We believe very much that it`s important to provide
education to communities, to physicians, to patients in terms of what
program is all about. And that`s something that we incorporated into our
ROGERS: The competition within New York state was really steep with
43 companies applying. Each of the five that were selected will have one
manufacturing facility and four dispensaries across New York state,
operational sometime in January 2016. But there`s one thing about the New
York law, you can`t smoke the cannabis, but among the approved uses are
ingesting it orally via oil and pill form.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT in Union Square in New York City, I`m Kate
HERERA: Coming up, Wall Street remembers and gives back. That story
GRIFFETH: It was a day of remembrance, as the nation marked the 14th
anniversary of the September 11th attacks. And all across the country,
flags were at half-staff. In Washington, President and Mrs. Obama observed
a moment of silence outside the White House.
And in New York, the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ observed a
minute moment of silence to remember those who lost their lives that day.
HERERA: And no trading firm was hurt more than Cantor Fitzgerald.
The investment bank lost a third of its employees in the September 11th
attacks. But instead of folding, the firm rebuilt and kept the financial
promise to the families of its employees, distributing $180 million revenue
to them and paying for their health care for 10 years.
Today, the firm pays it forward in another way, holding a charity day
to raise money to other causes.
Mary Thompson reports from Cantor`s headquarters in New York.
MARY THOMPSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: At Cantor
Fitzgerald, one client gets tough love for an easy trade for model Christy
CHRISTY TURLINGTON, MODEL: We need you to buy 2 million utility —
THOMPSON: The money the investment bank makes on this day goes to
charity. Part of an annual event honoring the 658 employees that lost on
September 11t, including CEO Howard Lutnick, and Edie Lutnick`s brother
EDIE LUTNICK, CANTOR FITZGERALD: The thing about us is that our
personal tragedy was very, very public. But the reality is that everybody
goes through tragedy and trauma one way or another, and probably the
largest lesson that I have learned is that if you can find something larger
than yourself to focus on in the face of that tragedy, you will heal and
you can do spectacular things.
THOMPSON: Edie Lutnick runs Cantor`s relief fund, which raises money
each year on 9/11 with the help of all star traders like baseball great
ALEX RODRIGUEZ, BASEBALL PLAYER: Brokers gave some great advice not
to hung up the phone until the deal is closed.
THOMPSON: And actor Michael J. Fox.
MICHAEL J. FOX, ACTOR: Today really impressed me. Money is changing
hands. I`ve been affecting the economy.
THOMPSON: Fox and Rodriguez, among the luminaries from sports and
entertainment, who talked to Cantor clients who in turn funneled their
business to the firm.
PETRA NEMCOVA, MODEL: Seven million, hear this. Yay!
THOMPSON: Cantor then distributes the money it makes on the trades to
charity, like supermodel Petro Nemcova`s Happy Heart, which builds schools
in disaster areas.
Cantor Fitzgerald held seven charity days, raising over $120 million.
The firm`s response to its own tragedy inspiring comedian Whoopi Goldberg
to become a broker for a day.
WHOOPI GOLDBERG, COMEDIAN: They still got up and give a damn about
everything else in the world and said, you`re not going to keep us down,
and I just wanted to be part of that grace.
THOMPSON: CEO Howard Lutnick survived 9/11 because he took his oldest
son to school that day. Fourteen years on, he says he honors those who
died and those they left behind by doing what he does best.
HOWARD LUTNICK, CEO, CANTOR FITZGERALD: I can`t help them in any
other way other than financially because that`s what I`m good at. So, we
rebuilt the company in order to help the families. That was the most
important thing to me.
THOMPSON: Fifty-one children of Cantor employees who died on 9/11 now
work for the firm, getting a chance to honor their parents` legacy each day
with work and each year with work and charity.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Mary Thompson in New York.
GRIFFETH: And, you know, that area of New York City, that lower area
that was so devastated by the attacks, has come back in a big way.
GRIFFETH: The population of that area on September 11th of 2001 was
20,000. Today it is 70,000 people. A lot of families moving to that area.
HERERA: And it`s so good to see that, that rebirth, if you will.
HERERA: All right. That does it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT tonight.
I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.
GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great weekend, everybody. We`ll
see you again on Monday.
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at http://nbr.com. The program is transcribed by CQRC
Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of
our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as
investment advice. (c) 2015 CNBC, Inc.