What next for Greece? One chart you need to see

Greece has submitted its economic reform proposals and asked for 53.5 billion euros ($59.4 billion) as part of a new bailout package from its creditors. So what happens next?

On Friday, the Greek parliament will vote on the plans then on Saturday the Eurogroup of finance minister will discuss the proposals.

If that goes well, then euro zone heads of government will meet on Sunday but there is unlikely to be a full-blown European Union (EU) summit with all 28 heads of government, an EU official told CNBC.

But if the euro zone finance ministers and leaders don’t find Greece’s proposals acceptable, then there is likely to be a full EU summit on Sunday, according to the EU official.

The chart below shows the likely next steps for Greece.

The banks

Still, analysts said there are a few caveats to the chart above.

Even if banks re-open, they are likely to do so with some capital controls and the possibility of a bank run as Greeks rush to get their cash out. Carsten Brezki, chief economist at ING, said that the European Central Bank (ECB) could increase its funding – or Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) – to the Greek banks, but it might not mean they will open immediately.

“The Greek population is pretty insecure, if you open the banks, you would still get a bank run. So even with a deal, with more ECB ELA, the banks would not quickly open,” Brezki told CNBC by phone.

If there is a no-deal this weekend and banks are forced to remain closed, they will need recapitalization and could need to be nationalized, according to Raoul Ruparel, head of economic research at think-tank Open Europe, told CNBC.

What happens for ‘Grexit’?

In the eventuality that ‘Grexit’ is the next stage, there could be months of negotiations as the EU tries to thrash out the legal path of this unprecedented step.

At the same time, Greece is likely to need to print a new currency.

But there is more optimism of a deal this weekend among the financial markets.

“We continue to believe that agreement remains more likely than Grexit, but the risks remain high and more progress needs to be achieved,” Deutsche Bank said in a note on Friday.

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