Transcript: Thursday, July 10, 2014

NBR ThumANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib.

Stocks yoyo on concerns over financial stress in Europe and weak economic
data from around the world. Is global growth faltering?

Why the increase in cybercrime could be a growth area for the insurance

MATHISEN: And house call. How technology advances in medicine are
bringing a whole new meaning to the term. We start a two-part series on

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday,
July 10th.

GHARIB: Good evening, everyone.

The stock markets` closing numbers don`t tell the whole story of what
happened on Wall Street today. It was a pretty bleak morning with the Dow
plunging 180 at the open, but then rebounded by the close.

There was nothing normal about the volatile trading session today.
Investors dumped stocks on scary news from Europe about the financial
health of a big but relatively little known bank in Portugal. Banco
Espirito Santo had missed some its debt payments that stirred up worries of
a repeat of the European banking crisis from a few years ago.

But then, comments from many market pros here in the U.S. all day long
reassured investors that the fundamentals of U.S. and European markets had
not really changed and stocks made a U-turn.

By the end of the day, the Dow lost 70, the NASDAQ was off 22, the S&P
slipped only eight points.

MATHISEN: Today`s losses on Wall Street followed a big selloff over
in Europe, not only because of worries about the health of Portugal`s
financial system, but also on a slowdown in manufacturing across the
continent. That renewed concerns about just how far Europe and its banks
have come since the financial crisis.

Karen Tso has more now from London.


fear and contagion for European markets as investors were spooked by
strains in Portugal`s banking system and weak economic news. Industrial
production initially slumped 1.2 percent in May, adding to woes this week
about a soft patch emerging across the region. We saw the steepest falls
across the FTSE Mid and other markets.

Now, the old fears played up around the level of debt in European
banks. At the epicenter, Banco Espirito Santo, the stock falling as you
can see on markets. Now, the holding companies of the powerful banking
dynasty that created the lender are struggling to repay debt and today,
delayed coupons on short-term loans. The intricate web around these
holding companies in question have reminded investors just how opaque
Europe`s banks are.

Banco Espirito Santo stock sank double digits. It was suspended
today, but it has now lost more than 50 percent so far this year.

The panic extended, though, to credit markets, as well. A total bond
for Spanish bank Banco Popular (NASDAQ:BPOP) was also scrapped today
because of souring sentiment and a selloff in for European bonds weakened
demand for Greece`s new issue of three-year bonds despite high hopes. It`s
only the second time its stock (ph) markets since the international
bailout. Today`s washout on equity and credit markets has again raised
questions about just how far along the road Europe has traveled to repair
its banking system.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Karen Tso in London.


GHARIB: But the concerns stretched beyond just Portugal. As Steve
Liesman tells us, weak economic data across Europe and in Asia has some
wondering if we`re headed for a world of worry.


the World Cup of economics, suddenly, it seems like big teams are losing
except one, and so far, that`s the United States.

A bevy of deeply negative data from leading industrialized nations
sent world markets into a tail spin today. Machine orders in Japan plunged
nearly 20 percent. Economists forecasted a slight gain. Exports in China
disappointed, and industrial production in Italy, France and Germany have
all come in with worrisome declines.

Meanwhile, the fallout for Portugal`s Banco Espirito Santo renewed
concerns about trouble in Europe`s banks.

(on camera): JPMorgan`s Bruce Kasman says some of the data appears
worse than it is because of a few extra holidays during the month, but
Kasman says it`s still not pretty.

BRUCE KASMAN, JPMORGAN CHIEF ECONOMIST: Europe is the key issue right
now. We`ve been thinking Europe could grow 1.5 percent to 2 percent this
year. First half of the year is averaging now probably no better than one.
So, that disappointment to me is what I really want to keep my eye on as we
look forward.

LIESMAN (voice-over): And then there`s the U.S., jobless claims fell
more than expected and now hover just a shade above their best level since
the recession in 2008. In fact, they are actually running at quite normal
levels. This follows the strong June jobs report announced last week.

The question is whether the U.S. can prosper if key trading partners
are weakening. Half of the economy`s contraction in the first quarter was
the result of a plunge in trade and shrinking Chinese exports and machine
orders in Japan where the U.S. sources a lot of its goods raised questions
about U.S. spending and investment.

KASMAN: There is no doubt in my mind that it`s going to be hard to
get a U.S. economy to grow as fast as we would like it to be growing, which
is well above 3 percent, unless we have a global economy that`s doing OK.

LIESMAN (on camera): That`s a reminder. The U.S. may be the best
economic team on the field, but it can`t play the game alone.



MATHISEN: Let`s turn now to Jim Paulsen for more on the financial
markets. He`s chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.

Jim, welcome back. Let`s talk a little bi about Europe, which was
just sort of sketched out there in Steve`s report. Is Europe doing all
that well, or not very well? And if so, how worried should we be?

JIM PAULSEN, WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT: Well, it`s certainly not doing
very well as the report suggested. They are probably growing somewhere
between 1 percent and 2 percent, whereas the U.S. is 3 percent or better.
So, they`re certainly — the thing about Europe is they are following
behind the recovery that the United States has because they were late in
policy stimulus where the U.S. was early.

And so, you know, if you think back a couple years in the United
States, we were still having periodic returns to debt crisis fears and we
were suffering from very weak growth that couldn`t get going and I think
that`s what Europe is experiencing now. But I do think they made progress,
Tyler, and I think they`re going to continue to make progress the rest of
the way in.

GHARIB: So, are American investors right to be worried about the
global economy? And also, I want to add on to this, what do you think
about what Carl Icahn said today, that time to be cautious about stocks?
So, what do you think about that?

PAULSEN: Well, I thought all year, Susie, that the S&P 500 would
maybe work its way up towards 2,000 and struggle toward the second half of
the year and I think that.

I think that better news coming off main street in the United States,
better than expected economic reports has pushed the stock market higher,
but I think in the United States what`s going to happen is we`re going to
find out with continued good news in the United States that we`re going to
get more worried about inflation pressures and interest rates pressures and
is the Fed pulling away, and is that going to start to maybe create some
turbulence for stocks.

So, I think it is time to get more cautious. It`s just that I think
over the next several years, the stock markets across the globe might still
go considerably higher. So, I think one of the worst things you can do is
worry too much about a 10 percent correction and miss the next 50 percent
rise over the next several years.

So I would get cautious but rather than pulling away from the stock
market a lot, I would prefer just to keep an overweight in equities but
diversify it — move some of it out of the United States, move some of it
to more defensive sectors.

MATHISEN: Yes, let`s talk about that. I mean, you have been a very
strong bull historically over the last year or so, but now, U.S.
evaluations are something like 18 times earnings.


MATHISEN: If you argue to diversify, where? And that would suggest
that you like the non-U.S. markets and their values better than you like
the U.S. one right now.

PAULSEN: I do, Tyler. You know, I would go offshore with a bigger
amount of my equity exposure now away from the United States. The United
States has beat everybody in the last couple years. It`s solidly beat the
emerging markets, but it`s also solidly beat most of the international
developed markets, as well — meaning that their relative values improved
and I would go and take advantage of that.

You can`t often find value without some issues. And so, the reason
there is good value in Europe is because they are not growing as fast —
same thing with Japan, for example. But what that gives you by going over
there is you can diversify away from the economic cycle, you can go to
something that has a different place in their recovery than the United

They`re not worried about policy officials tightening in Europe and
Japan, for example, like we are here. I also like Canada and Australia
because I think if we have more inflation fears here in the United States,
we`re going to drive commodity prices higher and those commodity-based
resource markets might lead the world market for awhile. And then lastly,
I would point out the emerging markets, Tyler, as you said we`re selling at
18 times earnings here, and they are selling at 13 1/2 times. And if they
slow to 6 percent to 7 percent growth, that`s still going to be twice the
growth on a sustained basis —


PAULSEN: — that we can deliver here in the United States.

MATHISEN: Jim, thank you very much for being with us.

PAULSEN: Thank you.

MATHISEN: Jim Paulsen with Wells Capital Management.

GHARIB: OK. An update on some economic news here in the U.S., as to
mortgage rates. They inched up a little bit last week. Freddie Mac says
average rates on a 30-year fixed loan rose to 4.15 percent this week.
That`s up from 4.12 percent a week ago.

On the 15-year mortgage, it rose to 3.24 percent. Current rates are a
tiny bit lower than they were the same time last year.

MATHISEN: So, mortgage rates are attractive right now and home price
gains are easing and even employment is improving.

So, why aren`t more people buying houses? Because they can`t afford

Our real estate reporter Diana Olick has details.


prices are no longer rising as fast as they were last year, but they are
still higher.

JED KOLKO, TRULIA CHIEF ECONOMIST: I think a lot of buyers and
sellers are still trying to figure out what reality looks like.

OLICK: Ninety-seven of 100 metro housing markets surveyed by real
estate Web site Trulia still showed year over year price gains, the most
since the housing recovery began. Also, asking prices by sellers in June
rose at their highest month over month rate in 16 months. Wage increases
are nowhere close to that.

KOLKO: With prices rising 8 percent, it`s ahead of wages, which means
affordability is getting worse. Now, the question is, does getting worse
mean the same thing as bad?

OLICK: Kolko claims affordability is still slightly better than
historical averages, but today`s potential buyers are saddled with higher
student debt and facing a tougher mortgage market.

ROB WITTMAN, REDFIN REAL ESTATE AGENT: It challenges down payments,
for sure, having the cash to be able to put down 20 percent.

OLICK: The Federal Reserve has taken note of the sluggish housing
market, suggesting that persistent structural changes in housing demand are
pushing more people to rent.

(on camera): Real estate agents are now saying sellers are more out
of touch than ever what buyers can stomach. In May, 40 percent of home
sellers surveyed by Redfin said they plan to list homes above market value,
even though home sales were down 9 percent from a year ago.

WITTMAN: Sometimes sellers are the last to know that prices may be
stabilizing a little bit or that the increases you were expecting aren`t
necessarily carrying through.

OLICK (voice-over): There may still be too few listings for sale, but
given the higher prices, it is becoming less and less of a seller`s market.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.


GHARIB: Just a few years ago, cash strapped Americans would pay their
mortgage first and then their auto loans and then their credit card bills.
Well, not anymore.

The American Banker`s Association says the share of credit card
holders paying off their balance in full was the highest on record
according to the latest data, and late payments hit a 23-year low.

MATHISEN: Up next, how data breaches like the one at Target
(NYSE:TGT) last year are creating a growing demand and opportunity with the
insurance industry.


MATHISEN: It appears Washington lawmakers are moving closer to a
compromise on President Obama`s request for nearly $4 billion in emergency
spending on the border crisis. Any deal would likely include policy
changes to expedite the return of tens of thousands of children who have
been streaming across the U.S. border with Mexico and send them back to
their home countries.

GHARIB: It`s being called the only must-pass legislation on Capitol
Hill, the transportation highway bill and now, Senate Finance Committee
leaders have agreed on a nearly $11 billion plan to extend construction
funding, closely matching a plan from House Majority Leader John Boehner
that includes changes in pension taxes and customs fees.

John Harwood joins us now from Washington with more on this bill,
making its way through Congress right now.

John, is this just a stopgap measure? What`s your take on it?

just a stopgap. This is not just must-pass legislation, Susie. It`s must-
pass soon legislation because the Highway Trust Fund financed by the gas
tax becomes insolvent next month. So, they need to be able to have some
revenue to at least extend projects that are already underway at least

Both of these bills would extend the trust fund into the middle of
2015, but only until the middle. This program is typically authorized for
five-year periods of time, but they`ve come up because there is so much
difficulty coming up with ways to finance it with a $10 billion package on
the Senate side, similar package on the House side to extend to mid-2015.

MATHISEN: Why is the short-term stopgap solution so endemic in
Washington right now?

HARWOOD: Tyler, as you know, the two parties are incredibly polarized
and divided. The larger or longer solution to a problem becomes, the more
expensive it is and the more money that either has to be cut for the budget
— from the budget if you`re looking for a Republican perspective or
increased in taxes from a democratic perspective.

So what tends to be the compromise default is a path of least
resistance — the smallest possible for the shortest period of time. It`s
not a great way to do business, but that`s about the only way that can work
right now in Washington.

GHARIB: Speaking of business, where does this leave American
businesses? They could really benefit if this bill passes.

HARWOOD: It leaves business uncertain, Susie, across a range of
fronts — on the highway bill, construction projects, on the Ex-Im Bank,
which is something —

GHARIB: Right.

HARWOOD: — that at risk, vulnerable in the Congress, even though
Democrats support it, some Republicans don`t.

On tax extenders, which typically get things like the R&D tax credit
get extended for a very short of period of time. And on immigration, we
don`t have a solution there either. Business wants one.

GHARIB: Absolutely.

All right. Thanks a lot, John. John Harwood reporting from

MATHISEN: The White House is coming out swinging against Republican
efforts to make a business depreciation tax break permanent, officially
known as “bonus depreciation”. The tax break lowers federal tax bills by
letting companies deduct half the cost of certain equipment purchases up
front instead of depreciating the gear over several years.

Critics making the break permanent would cost Uncle Sam nearly $300
billion in revenue over the next 10 years.

GHARIB: Verizon (NYSE:VZ) sees a dramatic increase in subscribers in
the second quarter. That`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

Almost 1.5 million customers joined Verizon (NYSE:VZ), up from the
first half of the year. Verizon`s tablet and smartphone businesses also
grew and the company`s CEO sees that trend continuing throughout the year.


LOWELL MCADAM, VERIZON CHAIRMAN & CEO: We think this is going to be a
great quarter for us. We`ll have our full results on the 22nd of July, but
we added over 1.4 million subscribers post pay, net ads. We had very —
record tablet growth — we had very strong smartphone growth. We had very
good turn and we delivered margins consistent with what we`ve done over the
last several quarters.

In addition, we`re going to expand our wire line margins, which is a
commitment we`ve made to our investors.

So, second quarter is very strong for us and I think it`s an
indication that the industry is very strong.


GHARIB: Verizon (NYSE:VZ) shares rose 1 1/2 percent to almost $50 a

Lumber Liquidators cut its earnings outlook for the year, citing
reduced store traffic. It also said fewer people are buying homes this
year than in 2013, while others are holding off on renovations. Investors
bailed out of Lumber Liquidators, driving the stock went down more than 21
percent to $55.25.

Other home improvement retailers also fell. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) was
the worst performing stock in the Dow, falling more than 1.5 percent.
Lowes also down by more than 1 percent.

After the bell today, Gap (NYSE:GPS) reported that its June same store
sales fell 2 percent. Its Gap (NYSE:GPS) and Banana Republic stores
suffered the most with sales down 7 percent, but its the Old Navy chain
performed well, with an increase of 7 percent. Shares fell initially after
hours down about 1 percent. During the regular session, the stock was also
down a percent to $40.97.

It was a different story for Costco (NASDAQ:COST), though. Sales at
the hotel retailer were up 6 percent in June, topping analyst estimates and
that`s thanks to higher fuel prices. Costco (NASDAQ:COST) shares edged up
slightly to $118 and change.


MATHISEN: IBM is betting big on chips. Big Blue announced plans to
invest 3 billion over the next five years in computer chip research and
development, hoping to revive slumping sales in its hardware unit. Shares
of Big Blue down a little bit, $187.70 was the close.

Oil giant ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) upping its dividend nearly 6
percent, to 73 cents a share. The payout will be made to shareholders in
September. Investors didn`t seem too pumped, though. Shares were off
slightly $85.67, is where they finished.

And Boeing (NYSE:BA) doesn`t demand for its jets slowing down anytime
soon. The company is expecting to sell now 37,000 planes worth more than
$5 trillion over the next 20 years, up from its previous forecast of $4.8
trillion in sales. The main driver of that growth is airline demand for
smaller passenger jets. Despite the news, shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA) flat
at $126.79.

GHARIB: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).com gets scolded and sued by the Federal
Trade Commission for billing parents millions of dollars of unauthorized
purchases by kids. So-called in-app purchases are goods and services you
can buy once a mobile app has been downloaded. Now, the FTC has been
pressuring Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to make changes to the app store like
getting a parent`s permission before buying something. Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) called the lawsuit, quote, “deeply disappointing” and says
it`s already refunded unauthorized purchases made by kids.

Earlier this year, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) agreed to set tighter controls
and paid at least $32 million to reimbursed customers.

MATHISEN: Another cyber attack on the U.S. has been linked to Chinese
hackers. “The New York Times (NYSE:NYT)” reports said hackers in China
broke into a government personnel database, apparently, targeting tens of
thousands of federal workers applying for top level security clearances.

With Target (NYSE:TGT) stores still reeling from that massive data
breach last year, it`s clear that cybercrime is a growing problem and that
means growing demand for the insurance that protects against it.

Mary Thompson takes a look at the small but expanding markets for
cyber insurance.


the city that never sleeps, one staffing company bought something it hopes
will help its owners and clients sleep better.

talking to us about it. They were asking us about it. And in order to
prevent kind of being behind the eight ball, we felt like we wanted to be
proactive and go ahead and get the insurance because we knew it was
something that was important to our clients and then, of course, it was
important to us, as well.

THOMPSON: The insurance Clarity`s head of operations Elizabeth Wade
is talking about — cyber insurance. Clarity is one of a growing number of
firms adding this layer of financial protection should their computers or
those that their vendors or suppliers get hacked or hijacked by a computer

until now, the growth is largely driven by data rich industries. So,
retail, higher ed, financial, even tech and telecom. But with the
expansion of coverage, with the growing awareness, we`re seeing other
industries come into play that never looked at cyber insurance before —
construction, power and utility, manufacturing.

THOMPSON: Bob Parisi works for Marsh USA, an insurance broker owned
by Mercer McLennan. Parisi says Marsh`s first half sales at cyber
insurance this year are double those of 2013.

Here is why a company would want cyber insurance. A study by McAfee
puts the cost of cybercrime to the global economy at $445 billion a year.

(on camera): Cyber insurance would cover some cost including business
disruption, legal and crisis management cost, cost to investigate the
breach, and the cost of notifying customers which is mandatory in most

New regulations are a factor behind the growing demand for cyber
insurance, along with high profile breaches like the one at Target
(NYSE:TGT). This helped to bring in new clients and prompted existing
clients to buy added coverage. Cyber insurances is a fraction of the
policies that have been sold here in the U.S., by the likes of AIG,
Travelers and Marsh. But it is a product Parisi says holds great promise.

PARISI: There is nothing that indicates that the growth is going to
be anything but increasing.

THOMPSON: A market growing to protect against a growing problem.



GHARIB: Coming up next, the doctor will see you now, but you might
need a computer or maybe a tablet for the appointment. We`ll tell you why.


MATHISEN: Crumbs Bakery may not be falling apart after all. Shares
of the chain skyrocketed 1,300 percent today — you heard me right — after
news a group of investors, including entrepreneur Marcus (NYSE:MCS)
Lemonis, star of the CNBC program, “The Profit”, are preparing a bid to
save the high-end cupcake shop. We told you on Tuesday that the company
shut down all 48 of its stores around the country following years of losses
and declining sales.

GHARIB: Unilever (NYSE:UN) is sliming down. The consumer products
giant, which makes Lipton Tea, Ragu pasta sauce and Dove soap, among other
items, is selling its SlimFast diet foods brand to a private equity firm.
No terms disclosed, but the sale is part of Unilever`s efforts to
concentrate on its high margin personal care division.

MATHISEN: What if you could see your doctor 24/7? Now, thanks to new
technology, you can, online. So, the telemedicine has been the next big
thing for years. But insurers and employers are now embracing it in a
major way to cut cost.

Bertha Coombs has the first of our two-part series.


Lindsay (NYSE:LNN) Molina had a lot to do before the holidays and was
coming down with an infection.

doctor and get what I had to take care of so I could move on with my life.

COOMBS: She logged on and talked to one online at work.

MOLINA: She was able to treat me and on my way home I picked up a
prescription that she sent to my pharmacy.

COOMBS: Marvell Technology signed on to insurer WellPoint`s live
health online this fall, but even in the heart of Silicon Valley, it`s been
a tough sale.

MARGARET SHAW: We`ve had a slow uptake in convincing people to use
the service. I think because it`s such a new idea.

COOMBS: The chip firm is hoping the $49 online visits catch on.

SHAW: It can potentially be a huge cost savings. If you go see a
regular doctor, your cost is anymore from $150 to $200 for an office visit.
It`s a big, big difference.

COOMBS: WellPoint launched the service last fall as a part of
employer plans, as a way to help them save money and time.

JOHN JESSER, LIVEHEALTH ONLINE VP: It can often replace an emergency
room urgent care or retail clinic visits which clearly is higher.

COOMBS: It`s making a bigger bet on technology with live kiosk that
includes tools to measure vital signs like blood pressure and a dermatology
cam — for a fraction of the cost of a work site clinic.

JESSER: There is a medical record that`s generated. If a
prescription is written, it`s a part of the visit and documented. We
really think that it`s differentiator that your health plan is also
integrated with this. So, it`s paperless.

COOMBS (on camera): Insurers like WellPoint have embraced telehealth
in part because of the Affordable Care Act. Now that they have to sell to
individual members and marketplaces, they want to be able to offer them
more affordable and consumer-friendly options.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have you checked your temperature?

COOMBS (voice-over): They are also rolling out live health for the
individual market taunting easy on demand access for the same flat fee.

(on camera): So, how do you make it work charging $49 for that?

JESSER: Well, let`s just say it`s an investment so far. The future
in our business is about having relationships with consumers and being a
trusted source for them.

COOMBS (voice-over): Once you get them over the tech hurdle, that is.

MOLINA: You got to do it once and then you get the concept.



MATHISEN: Actually sounds pretty cool. That will do it.

GHARIB: Sign me up.

MATHISEN: Sign me up. That will do it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT
for tonight. Thanks for watching. I`m Tyler Mathisen.

GHARIB: And I`m Susie Gharib. Have a great evening. Tyler and I
will see you right back here tomorrow.


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