ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you in part by —
TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Riding Santa`s
coattails. The holiday spirit hits Wall Street and stocks take off for the
triple-digit gain on the Dow and more records for the other indexes.
SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Retail rush. Retailers
looking to keep the holiday season going as shoppers flock to stores in
person and online, in the hopes of getting big deals and continuing the
MATHISEN: And three of a kind. Our market monitor has the trio of
big caps he says you need to have in your portfolio for 2014.
All that and more for this Thursday, December 26th, 2013.
GHARIB: Good evening, everyone.
Looks like Santa Claus decided to hang around a bit. Dropping off a
few late gifts on Wall Street.
Stocks rose sharply today with another record close for the Dow and
the S&P. For the Dow, it`s the 50th record of the year. The blue chip
average is on track for the best yearly percentage gain since 1996.
Now, driving stocks higher today, some good news about the job market.
First-time filings for jobless benefits dropped more than expected. By the
closing bell, the Dow jumped triple digits, up 122 points, the NASDAQ rose
11, the S&P added about nine points.
Over in the bond market, the yield on the 10-year note touched 3
percent for the first time since September.
MATHISEN: Well, our market monitor tonight is here to talk more about
the record setting day on Wall Street and the stocks he`s adding to his
holdings for 2014.
He is Peter Sorrentino, senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset
Peter, welcome and good to have you with us.
Your prediction for the S&P 500 next year is about 2,047. That`s
roughly 11 percent higher than it is today.
What are you worried about that could, you know, cause that prediction
not to come true? Is it that earnings won`t be as great as you forecast?
Is it that the multiple won`t expand as much as you foresee? What worries
PETER SORRENTINO, HUNTINGTON ASSET ADVISORS SR. PORTFOLIO MANAGER:
Well, Tyler, you touched on a couple key factors right there. When you get
the later stage of a market such as this, so when we begun to see this
takes shape over the summer, you go from the value market to a growth
market. And that`s built on P/E expansion.
Normally, rising interest rates and P/E expansion don`t go hand in
hand. But we had a collapse in commodity prices this year. Kind of the
final act of what had been an almost decade-long run for most of them. So,
that in our mind presages a return to higher P/Es next year. That means
we`re going to have a more volatile market. Any time you get that forward-
looking and forward-discounting, the market gets volatile and we had a sort
of dearth of volatility this year.
So, in our view, in a market where psychology is fragile, that could
be a real issue next year. We could see, again, you know, you talked about
the 10-year. Our fears that if it spikes for some reason on bad news, that
also could rattle investor confidence, but we do see earnings growth
continuing next year. A lot of positive fundamentals in the U.S. economy.
So, it will be a more volatile year. But we think at the end of the
year, we actually post some nice returns.
GHARIB: And you have a couple of stocks that you think will post nice
returns in the New Year. Let`s look at some of them. You have Dover
(NYSE:DOV) as your first pick. What is it that you like about this
SORRENTINO: It`s a continuation of a theme we`ve had for a couple
years. You`re seeing a renaissance in a number of different sectors of the
U.S. economy — agriculture, energy, manufacturing and Dover (NYSE:DOV)
behind the scenes is really built into those and we think that they`ll
continue to be there and this is a good market for them.
It`s not a cheap stock but it`s a very, very profitable company and
it`s got the kind of what we think, earning potential that will drive the
stock price higher in the year ahead.
MATHISEN: You like some of large cap multinationals. That`s one of
the themes that you`re hitting and John Deere is certainly one of those.
What`s going to drive it in 2014?
SORRENTINO: Well, Deere really suffered from the collapse in
commodity prices this year, with good harvest around the globe. The price
of the commodities drove the stock. Yet, Deere`s earnings continue to go
higher this year. The stock is one of the most profitable in its industry.
And yet, right now, it`s actually trading at a discount to some of its
foreign rivals, if you look at Mahindra, Komatsu, Kubota (NYSE:KUB), Deere
is actually trading cheaper than they are and yet it`s by far a much better
run — much more profitable company. We think the theme of food and better
diet about the globe continues and Deere is, in our view, the industry
leader and at this price is the kind of stock we want to own.
GHARIB: Peter, tell us about IBM. This is another one of your pick.
It`s had a very rough year. Why do you think it`s a buy at $184?
SORRENTINO: Again, we think this — we`re into later stages —
technology was a real hit or miss in the last couple years, the likes of
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) getting an awful lot of
Again, here is a very, very profitable company, great margins. It`s
probably selling at a 30 percent discount to the likes of Accenture and
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ). So it`s the kind of value name, but it`s a
well-run company. And we think, again, it fits into the renaissance for
American manufacturing and American export.
And with some of the highlighted security glitches we`ve seen in
recent weeks, we think companies are keenly aware of their vulnerability,
and we think they`re going to be spending pretty heavily to protect
themselves from this kind of intrusions going forward.
MATHISEN: All right. Peter, we`re short on time. Do you own any of
these stocks personally or do have them in your portfolios?
SORRENTINO: We have them in our funds. I do not own any personal.
And we are less than 3 percent of all three.
MATHISEN: All right. Peter, thank you very much. Happy New Year to
SORRENTINO: Happy New Year to you. Thank you.
MATHISEN: Peter Sorrentino was with Huntington Asset Advisors.
GHARIB: And `twas was the day after Christmas and all across the
country, it looks like everyone was headed to the big post-holiday sales.
At least that`s what retailers were hoping. Many shoppers were attacking
the sales with gift cards in hand. Target (NYSE:TGT) says the day after
Christmas is the most popular day to redeem them.
And not surprisingly, even up scale stores were running 70 percent off
Julia Boorstin has more on what retailers are pinning their hopes on.
JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
This mall and others around the country are hopping. Nearly 80 percent of
Americans said they plan to shop post-Christmas end of year sales and take
advantage of what are some of the deepest discounts in the years. So deep,
they could discourage consumers from ever wanting to pay full price again.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The prices are much, much cheaper, compared to
prior to Christmas.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I saved 40 percent on already knock off items.
So, I think it`s pretty good.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m getting a better deal on these today.
BOORSTIN: Many consumers got started yesterday. Christmas day online
sales are up over last year, driven by the highest ever mobile purchases.
Twenty-nine percent of the day`s online sales, following on the trend of
online shopping growing 15 percent this holiday season.
JAIME KATZ, MORNINGSTAR: I think the weather, particularly, across
the Midwest was pretty nasty over the last week, and people definitely feel
more comfortable shopping at home.
BOORSTIN (on camera): But the day after Christmas, consumers hedged
the malls to return unwanted gifts and cash in those gift cards.
(voice-over): Holiday shoppers are expected to be spend an average of
$163 each on gift cards. That`s up 4 percent from last year, for nearly
$30 billion total, according to the National Retail Federation.
Since gift cards aren`t counted as revenue until they are redeemed,
retailers hope they will spend early and more than the value of the card.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`ll probably spend the gift cards in the next
week, maybe in the next day.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A few gift cards and I go in to this shop.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Nobody gave me a gift card, if you can imagine.
BOORSTIN: While cashing in the cards is a good thing for retailers,
the other big thing shoppers are doing today, returns isn`t great. Some
$60 billion in returns are expected this year, according to Liquidity
Services (NASDAQ:LQDT). There`s about a third of all Americans return at
least one gift, with a third of those returns completed before the New
Retailers hoping they will buy more stuff when they go in for returns.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.
MATHISEN: Although the vast majority on gifts ended up under the tree
where they belong. For some people, the Grinch, read that the package
delivery company, stole Christmas. That made this a day for damage control
because some packages promised for Christmas Eve never arrive arrived.
UPS and to a lesser extent, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) under estimated the
volume of last-minute online sales and angry shoppers raged in the Twitter-
Diana Olick has more.
DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It
was a black eye for brown.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It`s frustrating.
OLICK: Even the competition was sympathetic.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everybody had free express shipping. I think it
was a little more than they expected.
OLICK: But UPS added to its own P.R. nightmare claiming two weeks ago
it was more than ready for the Christmas rush.
KURT KUEHN, UPS CEO: We continue to become more efficient and use
technology on the ground for routing and scheduling, so we can, you know,
meet increased demand.
OLICK: UPS had predicted 7.75 million packages would enter its system
over the holidays. They handle about 45 percent of all U.S. packages.
What they did not predict was that online sales would jump 37 percent
last weekend, as delays mounted, UPS issued a statement Tuesday saying,
“The volume of air packages in our system exceeded the capacity in our
network as demand was much greater than the forecast.” And then another
statement today, “UPS apologizes to both shipping and receiving customers
who may have delays.”
Some said bad weather and a shorter holiday season contributed to the
trouble, but a jump in mobile shopping may have tipped the balance.
MARK MAHANEY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS: I think you have people trying
out, you know, for the first time or one of the first times purchasing
products online via mobile devices and accelerated these last minute
purchases. Logistics weren`t there to support in a lot of cases.
OLICK: The question now, is how much will this affect online
retailers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which rely so heavily on their
LAURA CHAMPINE, CANACCORD GENUITY SECURITIES: I think the ease of
shopping online will make people continue to shop online. It`s important
not to over estimate how significant it is. Online shopping still accounts
for only about 15 percent of retail spending, so most people still hit the
OLICK: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) placed the blame squarely on the carrier,
saying in a statement, “Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) fulfillment centers processed
and tendered customers order to delivery carriers on time for holiday
delivery. We`re reviewing the performance of the delivery carriers.”
Frustrated online shoppers, of course, chose to vent frustrations
online. Twitter lit up with complaints, the #UPSfail emerged late
Christmas Eve, with some calling UPS a scrooge.
But others defended the drivers and their hard work, clearly
remembering another Christmas character who had delivery issues of his own
but had this thought: “Maybe Christmas doesn`t come from a store, maybe
Christmas perhaps means a little bit more.”
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.
GHARIB: Our next guest says retailers and shippers are just beginning
to understand the power of online shopping.
Joining us now Thom Blischok, he`s the chief retail strategist at Booz
So, Thom — I mean, let`s look at the change in behavior, the power of
online shopping. What does that mean? Is that going to be good or bad for
the players in this space, whether you`re a retailer or shipper?
THOM BLISCHOK, BOOZ & COMPANY CHIEF RETAIL STRATEGIST: I think it`s
going to be great for both the retailer and shipper. I mean, what happened
this past weekend was an interesting perfect storm — lots of shopping
online, three weekends of bad weather, and people not having enough money
toward the end of the month and really shopping over the weekend.
MATHISEN: You know, Thom, when you were here last, you suggested I
get the automatic crock pot for Susie. She was thrilled, by the way.
Thank you for that observation.
What are you hearing about mall traffic and selling today? This is a
big day, maybe one of the four or five biggest of the year.
BLISCHOK: I was out this morning at 6:00 a.m. in a Walmart, which was
packed. I went from there to Toys “R” Us, and to Best Buy (NYSE:BBY),
Target (NYSE:TGT), et cetera. Traffic was absolutely phenomenal this
morning, as people were searching for great deals for this holiday.
GHARIB: Yes. But the numbers we`ve seen early on, 2 percent up so
far for the holiday season, how is this all going to play out when the
retailers start reporting earnings in a couple weeks?
BLISCHOK: You know, I think it`s going to be a tough period, a tough
year. You know, I think on the previous segment you had, there was a
comment about, you know, margins perhaps and about how profitability is
going to be generated. I think this is going to be a touch year at retail.
We`re going to see a little bit of raise in sales, but we`re also going to
see some challenges with profits.
MATHISEN: You know, Thom, we hear at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), for those
people who did not receive gifts on time as promised are going to pay $20
in sort of in-kind payment to them. That`s going to squeeze their margins,
which sure is not squeezable as it is. It`s pretty small.
BLISCHOK: Yes, I think if Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is attempting to do
what it wants to do best, which is to serve the shopper. By the way, most
of the online retailers are trying to do the same thing. But clearly, this
glitch in the shipment was something which was unexpected. Very tough to
plan this season.
GHARIB: Thom, let`s talk a little bit about 2014. What can we
expect? Retailing is an all year round kind of business. Any new trends
we should look for in terms of what retailers are going to be doing?
BLISCHOK: I think we`re going to see about late February, some
tremendous sales on electronics, you know, watch smart phones, TVs,
personal wrist computers, et cetera, et cetera, to be a big item. A lot of
home appliances will go electronic, cars will go a lot electronic. 2014
should be a pretty strong electronic year.
MATHISEN: Do you see the shipping glitches as anything that will
reverse Americans` move towards online shopping or using mobile devices to
BLISCHOK: Tyler, I don`t think so. I think this is a glitch. I
mean, I want was an unexpected glitch this season. I think people are
absolutely glued to the online environment going forward.
GHARIB: All right. Well, we`re going to leave it there.
Thom, thanks so much. Happy holidays. Happy New Year.
BLISCHOK: Happy holidays.
GHARIB: Thom Blischok, he`s with Booz and Company.
MATHISEN: All right, Susie.
President Obama has signed the two-year compromised budget agreement,
the result of bipartisan negotiations that took place earlier this month.
The measure will ease automatic spending cuts and reduce the risk of
another government shutdown.
GHARIB: And still ahead on the program: merger activity was down, but
not out this year. We saw some blockbusters like the mega deal for Verizon
(NYSE:VZ) Wireless. But our next guest says 2014 will be the year of even
bolder ones. He`ll tell us why. That`s next.
GHARIB: Well, talk about a deal. Some travelers who bought tickets
on Delta.com this morning got fares for as little as $5. That`s because on
a computer glitch.
And that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”. That error on
Delta`s Web site allowed lucky customers to score dirt cheap flights,
including $25 round trip cross country tickets. Delta fixed the issue and
said it doesn`t know why and how many tickets were sold, but the company
will honor those cheap prices. The mistake didn`t weigh on Delta stock.
Shares were up slightly to $27.88.
A legal setback for B.P. related to the 2010 gulf oil spill. A U.S.
court rejected B.P.`s argument that it should not compensate businesses if
they can`t prove their losses were caused by that oil disaster. The
federal judge ruled the energy giant`s new position went against a previous
But despite the news, B.P. shares rose to $47.97.
MATHISEN: BlackBerry`s co-founder Mike Lazaridis cut his stake in the
company, sending shares of that smartphone maker way, way down today. In
an SEC filing, Lazaridis who was considering not long ago a joint bid to
take over BlackBerry also said in that filing he`s no longer interest in a
buyout. Shares tumbled more than 8.5 percent to $7.06 at the close.
T-Mobile shares were up today on news Japan`s Softbank is in talk to
acquire the wireless carrier. Softbank reportedly hoping to take a
majority stake in T-Mobile through its Sprint subsidiary which it recently
took over. The stock, T-mobile, that is, up more than 2 percent, to
GHARIB: So, while we wait for a deal in the telecom space, tech
always seems to be attractive for investors. So where might the capital
flow in 2014?
Josh Lipton asks some of Silicon Valley`s top venture capitalist for
their best ideas for next year.
JOSH LIPTON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: 2013 was a big
year for tech IPOs. The poster child was Twitter. The social network
debuted for trading on November 7th.
Analysts had expressed caution about the site`s evaluation, but
investors haven`t shared in that concern. The stock hit a new record
today, and it`s up 170 percent since its IPO.
So, what could be the next big tech IPO?
Scott Cooper is the managing partner at Andreessen Horowitz. He`s a
fan of Cipher Cloud, which protects data in the Cloud.
SCOTT KUPOR, ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ: People are worried about the
security of their information when it`s living a Cloud. And so, Cipher
Clouds allowed them to encrypt that information when it`s out there so that
a normal employee obviously can get the information appropriately. But if
anybody tries to hack in, all they would find would be encrypted data.
LIPTON: Cipher Cloud already has over 1.2 million users, the company
raised $30 million from Andreessen Horowitz.
The site`s Cloud computing, another area of interest for investors is
cyber security. Venky Ganesan of Menlo Ventures is playing the theme
through BitSight, which rates the company security on a daily basis and can
tell how vulnerable it is to fraud.
VENKY GANESAN, MENLO VENTURES: BitSight is like Moody`s. It
essentially gives a score for every company and allows you and the company
to know, measure the security and over time mitigate any risk they have.
LIPTON: BitSight raised $24 million from Menlo Ventures and other
Some are worried that Silicon Valley could be heading into a dot-com
bubble, with surging valuations and a raft of new tech IPO offerings. But
the VCs we spoke to didn`t share in that concern.
GANESAN: What I try to tell about technology, is that first you have
the inventors, then you have the imitators, then you have the idiots. When
the idiots show up, the bubble is in full flow. We`re still in the
inventors/imitators space. So, I think we have a long way to go.
LIPTON: So, no sign of idiots at least for now, according to Ganesan.
But there is a lot of money chasing a few good ideas.
Josh Lipton, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Silicon Valley.
MATHISEN: 2014 could also be a big year for mergers and acquisitions.
Robert Profusek is predicting the number of deals could be up by 10
percent, a big improvement of this year where transactions were down by 6
percent or more. And Robert is the chairman of the Global M&A Practice at
Robert, welcome. Good to have you with us.
How would you rate 2013 not a great year, obviously, but what will be
different in 2014 to make it so much better than you see this one having
ROBERT PROFUSEK, JONES DAY CHAIRMAN OF GLOBAL M&A PRACTICE: Well, the
overall environment has been good. There is money everywhere. I mean, the
fact that Verizon (NYSE:VZ) could raise $50 billion in a week is pretty
So — and companies have lots of money and looking for growth because
even though I think people feel that next year might be better on the
growth side, it`s still pretty tepid. So they`ve got to do things. One of
the things you can do is buy.
What`s been holding things back, though, is aftershocks, I think, from
the financial crisis. 2012, it was the E.U. This year has been
Washington. It`s been all sorts of things.
I think that stuff feels like it`s behind us. Nobody is going into a
panic modality anymore.
MATHISEN: So, Bob, are you saying that the conversation in the
boardrooms now is much more confident, or is there still a lot of anxiety?
Because there has been cash on the books for a couple years now, so why
will 2014 be the year they finally go out and do mergers or buy up
PROFUSEK: Well, there has been a number of pretty significant
transactions last year. Mostly strategic, though. Mergers of equals,
(INAUDIBLE), Tokyo Electron and AMD, the Verizon (NYSE:VZ) deal itself.
So, there`s been some big strategic things, but what really drives the
market is the so-called add on, not a merger as such but buying something
that fits into your business, and it hasn`t been that we`ve been fearful.
We`ve just lacked confidence, and frankly, almost every other month or so
in the last 24, there`s been something that`s come sideways and sort of
knocked the market off course.
I think participant of it is we under estimated the impact of the
financial crisis. It had lots and lots of aftershocks.
MATHISEN: Bob, whose going to be doing the buying and whose going to
be doing the selling in 2014?
PROFUSEK: Well, there is going to be an enormous amount in tech.
This was a very good year for tech in terms of acquisition, not just
capital formation that was mentioned a minute ago. I think we`ll see a lot
in the health care industry, all across the spectrum, ranging from
providers to device manufacturers, insurers to everything.
The message of the Affordable Care Act is you`ve got to get more cost
effective. The way to do that is to merge and reduce access cost.
Secondly, it`s a huge story in this country and it`s finally being
covered by energy and energy infrastructure, and not really trading
reserves and sufficient but the infrastructure that is being billed out
right now is phenomenal and a lot of the participants in it really don`t
have the wherewithal in their own to do it.
GHARIB: Bob, what about cross border deals? We had the big deal
between China and Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD). Are we going to see more
deals like that?
PROFUSEK: In a sense, you know, I don`t think — one of the things
about Smithfield was that there was a little bit, a very little bit in the
beginning of national push back. It was almost a $3 billion deal and China
buying something in America.
Frankly, we have a very substantial foothold in China. Our Chinese
clients think of it as a watershed transaction. No, it wasn`t a tech deal.
No, it wasn`t national security or anything. But it was big and it went
through what really not political push back.
MATHISEN: I`m sorry to interrupt, Robert. We have to leave it there,
as we`re up against the clock.
But we appreciate you`re being with us. Thank you for your insights.
PROFUSEK: You`re welcome.
MATHISEN: Robert Profusek is chairman of Global M&A at Jones Day.
GHARIB: Tesla shares are up more than four fold this year, but that`s
not the only reason the CEO has been a different maker this year. We`ll
explain, coming up.
MATHISEN: Finally tonight, we`ve been profiling some of this year`s
most influential people in business and finance. And one of the most
visible is certainly been the billionaire inventor, Elon Musk.
Phil LeBeau with more.
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Elon
Musk is in the hurry.
ELON MUSK, TESLA: I want to be in the middle of the battle.
LEBEAU: He`s challenging conventional wisdom, showing the world cars
can go electric.
DUTCH MANDEL, AUTOWEEK: He`s brought to the American consciousness, a
thought that in fact electric vehicles can exist.
LEBEAU: Not only exist but sell in big numbers. More than 20,000
this year, attracting buyers with unique styling and the allure of almost
300 miles on a single charge.
MICHAEL ROBINET, IHS (NYSE:IHS) AUTOMOTIVE: In some respects, Tesla
is the equivalent of the moon shot, where he`s really, he and Tesla are
really pushing the paradigms of the industry in terms of how they retail
the vehicle, how they develop the vehicle. And interestingly enough, the
industry is learning lessons.
LEBEAU: Critics said Musk wouldn`t turn a profit, but Tesla has by
charging a premium.
Critics say you can`t drive far in electric cars, so Tesla is building
a recharging network coast to coast.
And critics said Tesla is a one-trick pony, but Musk lined up orders
for the Model X crossover utility vehicle coming next year.
MANDEL: Whether or not he`s going to be successful, I don`t know. I
think — I personally believe he`s going to run out of money. I personally
believe he needs more products.
LEBEAU: Now, Musk is changing how cars are sold. For decades, auto
makers went through dealers but Tesla is cutting them out, opening stores
in malls where it can sell directly to buyers.
(on camera): Auto dealers have been fighting Elon Musk, saying he`s a
threat to companies and in some cases, they`ve won, blocking Tesla from
selling directly to customers in certain states.
But just a few years after many considered Elon Musk and his Model S a
quaint little story, he`s making everyone think twice.
Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.
GHARIB: And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Susie
Gharib. Thanks for watching.
MATHISEN: And thanks from me as well. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a
great evening, everybody. And we`ll see you back here tomorrow night.
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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