Transcript: Friday, November 8, 2013

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you in part by —


economy powers through the government shutdown and adds way more jobs than
everybody thought last month. The impact for the Fed, the markets and you.

sector once again was the top job creator in the economy, as it has been
for the last four years. Why travel and leisure is hot, hot, hot.

HERERA: And honest account. What the makers of a leading beverage
brand have in store for their next act.

All that and more for this November 8th of 2013.

Good evening, everybody. I`m Sue Herera, in tonight for Susie Gharib.

MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Welcome, everyone.

Well, the U.S. economy showing resiliency in October, shocking just
about everyone slugging off the partial government shutdown and adding
significantly more jobs than predicted, 204,000 people to be exact. That`s
the number added to payrolls last month, blowing away the consensus
forecast of 120,000. The unemployment rate, however, did tick higher to
7.3 percent.

Hampton Pearson digs deeper.


In October, job growth accelerated, with employers looking past the
government shutdown and debt ceiling fight. In addition to the 212,000
private sector jobs created, data was revised for the previous two months,
adding 60,000 more workers.

And the growth was widespread — leisure and hospitality, retail,
manufacturing and healthcare all gaining strength last month. But the
Labor Department says some 448,000 government workers were laid off due to
the shutdown boosting the unemployment rate to 7.3 percent.

THOMAS PEREZ, LABOR SECRETARY: The economy continues to be resilient,
notwithstanding these self-inflicted wounds. But the numbers also show
unemployment went up.

PEARSON: Baltimore-based Fireline Corporation is one small business
growing and prospering in spite of the Washington turmoil. They service
and install every type of fire protection device and service you can
imagine for commercial businesses, generating around $20 million a year in
annual revenue and jobs for 160 workers, a growth plan began more than a
decade ago is now paying off.

Four years ago at age 27, Anna Gavin took over a family business
founded by her grandfather back in 1947. And yes, she`s hiring.

ANNA GAVIN, FIRELINE PRESIDENT: The hiring that we`re seeing, we`re
hiring designers, we`re hiring technicians, and then what happens
eventually is that you end up having to hire administrative people to
support those functions and support that growth.

PEARSON (on camera): There are still lots of headwinds in the overall
jobs market. The labor force shrank again last month, declining by some
720,000 persons who simply stopped looking for work, bringing the
participation rate down to the lowest level in 35 years.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.


HERERA: Stocks took off on the news at that jobs report. There was
some added good news as consumer spending and income both rose. But the
market slugged off an unexpected drop in consumer sentiment.

So, all in, the Dow rose 167 points to close at an all-time high of
15,761, the NASDAQ jumped nearly 62, and the S&P 500 added about 23 1/2

But interest rates spiked with the 10-year treasury bond hitting 2.75

But one question did arise, if that jobs number was so strong,
suggesting the underlying economy is firming up and the markets are
concerned with the Feds starting to ease up on its bond-buying purchases,
why did stocks go higher?

Well, we asked Bob Pisani.


strong October jobs report pushed interest rates up again today, yields on
10-year treasuries are at six-week highs. And that`s putting pressure on
interest rate sensitive groups like utilities, home builders, telecom and
real estate investment trusts, all of which are down for the week. But the
idea just because interest rates go up, the stock market is supposed to go
down didn`t hold water today.

Yesterday was the worst day for stocks in two months but aside from
interest rate sensitive names, most of the market was up today,
particularly beaten up groups like biotech stocks, oil and gas stocks,
airlines. And momentum names like Bellow and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).

Now, part of today`s strength was due to financials. Higher rates are
generally good for banks because it increases the chances banks can charge
higher rates for loans.

Finally, Twitter had a slam bang debut on the New York Stock Exchange
yesterday, but drifted lower on the second day of trading ending down 7

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1 percent and
closed at a historic high.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock


MATHISEN: So, what does today`s job report mean for the overall
economy and financial markets?

Here to help us put some context around it is Joe Davis. He`s the
chief economist at Vanguard, the big mutual fund company.

Joe, welcome. Good to have you with us.

Two important numbers —


MATHISEN: Terrific to have you here.

Two important numbers the past few days. Jobs today, obviously. The
economic growth numbers yesterday.

How strong is the economy in your view right now and is it strong
enough for the Federal Reserve to dial back on its bond purchases?

DAVIS: Well, certainly, I believe it`s strong enough to just weather
the dialing back of the Federal Reserve. I mean, our theme for our
investors throughout the year is that despite the headwinds the U.S.
economy faces is that it`s resiliency may be underestimated and I think
today`s jobs report just under scores that sort of theme, despite the
headwinds, the private sector in particular is weathering those sort of
forces very well.

And so, I would expect more positive formative news on the labor
market front over the next several months. And so, I think that clearly
brings into focus a Federal Reserve that is beginning its tapering program.

HERERA: You know, Joe, the other aspect of it, though, is that the
participation rate dropped so dramatically. Does that worry you at all?
And might it concern the Fed enough they hesitate to pull back because
people are leaving, they are discouraged?

DAVIS: It does. I mean, it`s the biggest question economist and
hence for investors as well is how much of the drop in the labor force
participation rate is temporary, meaning it`s not permanent in that some
Americans may return to the workforce and actually look for work. It`s
actually the single biggest variable with respect to win the Federal
Reserve may start to raise interest rates longer term, of the next several
years. We are of the view that part of that job we have seen is more
temporary or cyclical, which means there is still a decent amount of slack.

So, what we`re closely watching is wage growth numbers, which in
aggregate, even in the report today is still around 2 percent. And so,
it`s not suggestive of a very tight labor market even if we would have
consistently strong numbers, much like we saw today.

MATHISEN: You know, Joe, you point to the idea of temporary jobs,
that being one constituent here. But there`s also a lot of people working
in part time jobs, and at low wages in today`s economy. That — the under
belly of this jobs report is a little soft, isn`t it?

DAVIS: Yes, I mean, you can point to the fact of the percentage of
jobs that are so-called part time. It`s been elevated since 2008, Tyler,
as you know. But that said, if you look back over the past three or four
years and you net out the volatility, around 80 to 90 percent of the jobs
created have been full-time. Now, that said, there are industries more
high paying than others and I think that`s a force that we`re going to have
to contend with in the economy, not just for the next year but for the next
several years, given globalization forces.

So, there are clearly areas of softness in terms of hours worked and
wage growth that we can point to. But clearly an important ingredient for
the Federal Reserve and for investors going forward is that we have some
underlying strength and I think we saw that today.

HERERA: You know, you mentioned the Fed maybe pulling back on its
bond buying. Does that start as soon as December, or perhaps early in the
New Year, and how aggressive might they be in terms of that cut back?

DAVIS: Well, I don`t think we`ll see tremendous amount of
regressiveness. I mean, I think still, they will want to see consistent
compelling evidence of the strength. I mean, just this time last month,
there was a considerable concern that the jobs report was too weak and so,
I think we`re going to want to see consistent evidence.

I think, though, the December announcement is possible. I think much
more likely could be in the first quarter, particularly January. I think,
though, for investors, actually, we continue to be of the mind that it`s
good news if we`re talking about a Federal Reserve that is undertaking the
tapering program, because that means the underlying strength of the economy
can actually weather —

HERERA: Absolutely.

DAVIS: — and actually is in need of less stimulus. So, this is
definitely good news.

HERERA: Joe, we`ll leave at that. Thank you. Joe Davis, chief
economy of Vanguard.

DAVIS: Thank you.

MATHISEN: More and more Americans are letting their fingers do the
shopping for them. ComScore, a leader in measuring the digital world, says
third quarter desktop based sales rose 13 percent year over year, $47.5
billion, 16th consecutive quarter of increases.

HERERA: It has been a rough week for the White House and it`s
embattled health care Web site. The promise has been made to have all the
bugs worked out by the end of the month, but as Bertha Coombs tells us,
that might be a tough promise to keep.


Touring a call center in Atlanta, Kathleen Sebelius said administration is
searching for a way to help millions of Americans whose health plans have
been canceled but won`t qualify for insurance subsidies under the
Affordable Care Act.

KATHLEEN SEBELIUS, HHS SECRETARY: We`re looking at a range of
options. I would say there is not a specific proposal.

COOMBS: After weeks of being on the defensive, it`s a mark shift in
tone from the administration, echoed by the president himself.

In an interview with NBC News, he apologized for his off-repeated
blanket pledge that if people like their plan, they`d be able to keep it.

you know, are finding themselves in this situation based on assurances they
got from me. We got to work hard to make sure that they know we hear `em
and that we`re going to do everything we can to deal with folks who find
themselves in a tough position as a consequence of this.

COOMBS: The president maintains many Americans will find better deals
on the online insurance marketplaces and pledged that the troubled federal
site will be fixed by the end of the month, in time for
people to enroll for coverage that starts January 1st.

OBAMA: I`m confident that it will be better by November 30th and that
the majority of people are going to be able to get on there, they`re going
to be able to enroll.

COOMBS: But with hundreds of fixes still to be completed on the
federal exchange, even the president`s supporters are expressing doubt that
the problems on the site can be resolved in the next three weeks.

because they set an artificial deadline of December 1st that I — in my
experience in tech rollouts, that`s going to be tough.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You don`t think they`re going to make it.

DEAN: I think it`s going to be tough, I really do.

COOMBS: State-run exchanges are reporting their enrollment process
has been going more smoothly and contrast with federal officials who have
so far refused to provide numbers until next week.

But even local enrollment numbers have become a point of contention.
Republican Senators Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch released new figures
from the four insurers offering plans on the local Washington, D.C.
exchange. The insurers reported, as of the end of the October, they`d only
received five official enrollments combined.

That contrasts with the district`s exchange reporting that 320 people
had selected plans as of October 21st, with more than half requesting

(on camera): It`s a wide discrepancy to be sure, but Washington D.C.
officials say there is an explanation. Enrollment doesn`t become official
until the first premium payment is received and enrollees have until mid-
December to make that first premium in order to start coverage on January



HERERA: It is now official. Steven A. Cohen`s SAC Capital hedge fund
pleaded guilty to criminal fraud charges today as part of a $1.8 billion
deal to resolve a long-running insider trading investigation. And although
authorities did not charge Mr. Cohen himself with wrongdoing, prosecutors
said that they will continue to investigate potential wrongful trading by
individuals at the one-time $15 billion hedge fund.

Coming up: as we continue, our market monitor tells us why consumer
stocks may be the way to go in this market. His picks are next.

But, first, a look how the international markets fared.


HERERA: Chrysler is recalling 1.2 million Ram pickup trucks mainly in
the U.S. to check for a front end problem that could cause a loss of
steering. The largest part of the recall covers an estimated 840,000 Ram
2500 and 3500 trucks from the model years 2003 through 2008. Their
defective tie rod assemblies will be fixed at no charge beginning in

MATHISEN: But as we told you earlier, much of the growth in today`s
jobs number came from hospitality and leisure. But it`s not just today`s
number where that`s been the case.

Simon Hobbs now with a look at this big jobs generator.


take out franchise, the luxury hotel, drinking establishments or the
fitness staff at your gym, months after months, leisure and hospitality has
consistently generated more jobs than other parts of the economy.

In fact, of the almost 7 million jobs non-fund jobs generated over the
last four years, 18 percent have come from leisure and hospitality,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It`s partly because the industry is coming from a lower base
absolutely slammed in the wake of the financial crisis. Now, business
travelers are traveling again and tourist from home and abroad, you can see
it in the results of big hotel brands like Marriott.

back to essentially peak levels. So, we`re full midweek, and we`ve seen
that we`ve been able to both raise like for like pricing but also shift
towards higher rated business.

HOBBS: Demand is also returning for the airline. And as with the
hotels, capacity on supply remains restricted, so prices are rising,
profits are rising and operators have the cash to add back jobs and
concentrate again on customer satisfaction.

JEFFERY BOYD, PRICELINE CEO: We have had rising airfares. We have
had rising average daily rates for hotels, and that`s because there`s good
business and leisure demand.

HOBBS: On those big fixed cost theme parks now teeming with visitors
are again becoming major cash generators for the likes of Bob Iger at
Disney (NYSE:DIS).

ROBERT IGER, WALT DISNEY CEO: What we did in California with Cars
Land and the New Fantasyland in Orlando and that helps a lot. So, our
product is being welcomed by our public and is in demand.

HOBBS: Critics, of course, will argue that many of these jobs that
are being created are low-skilled, low-waged paying on average across the
country below supervisory level $11.15 an hour.



MATHISEN: But while all was good in leisure land, home builders got
slammed because interest rates spiked on that strong jobs number. There
you see most of the big names down between 2 and 4 percent today.

HERERA: Attempts to strengthen sales with more brightly colored
clothing, designer collaborations and more attractive stores seems to be
paying off for Gap (NYSE:GPS) and that`s where we start tonight`s “Market
Focus”. The clothing chain said third quarter revenue with stores open at
least a year grew 4 percent. And that was well ahead of estimates. Gap
(NYSE:GPS) also forecast a better than expected earnings outlook for the
third quarter. The shares were up a full 10 percent to $41.43.

And investors like Groupon`s third quarter profit that came out last
night. The daily deals site saw strong growth in North America and a 10
percent jump in gross billings. Revenue came in below consensus but that
didn`t seem to worry investors today. Shares rose 6 percent to $10.11.

MATHISEN: Shares of Nvidia jumped today after the company posted
profits that bet estimates, raised its quarterly dividend by 13 percent.
Revenue matched forecast. The chip maker also issued a weak outlook for
the current quarter because of a declining PC market and harsh mobile
device competition. Nvidia shrugged off the bad news as stock rose about 7
percent to $15.56.

Cablevision return to a profit in the third quarter. Revenue there up
to 2 percent, met estimates but the New York cable — area cable company
lost 29,000 total customers from the second quarter. Cablevision facing
increasing competition from Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and rising prices that media
companies now charge to carry their networks. The shares there down 3 1/2
percent to $15.08.

HERERA: Our market monitor guest tonight says despite the run-up in
stocks this year, the market is not yet overvalued. He`s Mark McCarron,
chief investment strategist at Drexler Morgan Capital Advisers.

Welcome, Mark. Nice to have you here.


HERERA: Let`s start, first of all — it`s not overvalued. But are
you still able to find value in this market because we always hear it`s not
overvalued but it`s fairly valued.

MACCARRON: Yes, fairly valued, no longer cheap, that`s for sure.
And, you know, the volatility levels are very uncomfortably low.

So, that combination isn`t comfortable with us, but there are pockets
of areas of interest, pockets of expensive stocks but also pockets of cheap
stocks we think.

MATHISEN: You know, Mark, jump in and tell us what sectors you like
and why don`t you start off with your first investment pick for this

MCCARRON: You know, if we look across the world, global healthcare is
obviously a big trend and CVS (NYSE:CVS) is a name we`ve held in client
portfolios for awhile and clearly benefiting from what we think is going to
be an increased demand for prescription drugs and well position in the

So, that`s one example, and that`s a U.S.-oriented play. If you look
across the world, particularly in Europe, we`ve got some positive outlook
we think on European pharmaceuticals as well.

HERERA: All right. You also like consumer stocks, Visa (NYSE:V) is
one of them.

MCCARRON: Yes, Visa (NYSE:V). We just heard a little bit earlier in
the program about the increased travel and leisure demand and a lot more
payments going through electronic systems and Visa (NYSE:V) is obviously a
major player there. It`s a very competitive market, but Visa (NYSE:V) for
us is a good opportunity to play that continuing growth.

MATHISEN: You know, as we move on to another choice of yours, which I
believe is Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), I`m noting that you seem to be picking or
gravitating, there nothing wrong with it, Mark, towards stocks that have
outperformed the market. Do you worry that these stocks have gotten ahead
of themselves and may slow down? How should I think about a stock that is
oh, 12 or 15 percentage ahead of the baseline market?

MCCARRON: You know, if you look at, I think it all depends on how you
look at its growth at top line and bottom line. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) I
would highlight is probably the most expensive stock that we have on
tonight and that`s because its earnings are quite minimal. It`s growth on
top line is significant, and it`s popularity in the market is quite strong.

But Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to us benefits from increased online
purchasing where they are taking market share from some of the other
traditional retailers.

HERERA: Mark —

MCCARRON: I think it`s very important to look at — yes, please, Sue?

HERERA: Go ahead and finish your thought, Mark, sorry.

MCCARRON: No, I was going to say if you look at the top line growth
in anticipation of earnings in the future, I think that`s where you have to

HERERA: Could you address the overall market because at the beginning
of the segment, you said certainly stocks aren`t cheap but you are finding
pockets. That takes me to whether or not we`ve seen the lion`s share of
the run-up in the overall market, in the S&P for instance, or the Dow for
the year. Do you think we have a significant amount of room to run or not
so much?

MCCARRON: Well, it`s moved up quite a lot. I think the market has
been more resilient given the underlying economic growth. But I think if
you look beyond just the U.S. into Europe and into Asia, there are a lot
more opportunities we think from evaluation standpoint and also to benefit
from a rebound in Europe in particular.

MATHISEN: Mark, among the stocks you mentioned, do you own any of
them personally or does your family?

MCCARRON: No, none of those. Our clients do but we do not, no.

MATHISEN: All right. Mark, thank you very much. Mark McCarron is
chief investment strategist at Drexel Morgan Capital Advisers.

HERERA: Up next, an honest assessment of a multi million dollar idea.

But, first, a look at commodities, treasuries, and currencies.


MATHISEN: It`s jobs Friday and that as usual brings us to a new
bright idea.

Tonight, the entrepreneurs behind honest tea, made with real tea and
less sweetener. Now, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) bought the company in 2012 for a
price reported to be above $100 million. So, how did they do it?

Well, their bright idea, the next one, aims to explain.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Given all the drinks out there, you`d think this
is a recipe for disaster.

MATHISEN: For years now, Yale business professor Barry Nalebuff and
his former student, Seth Goldman, have been telling the story of honest

that takes like tea as opposed to liquid candy.

SETH GOLDMAN, HONEST TEA PRES. & TEA-EO: We had no preexisting
knowledge of beverage industry. As we all know, it`s a brutal industry and
yet we grew it from thermoses and a Snapple bottle with a label painted on
it, to over 100 million bottles a year.

MATHISEN: Now, they`re telling and selling their amazing business
story in a book, “Mission in a Bottle.” Out just two months, it spent six
weeks as a “New York Times (NYSE:NYT)” bestseller. Like their less sweet
drinks, it`s different.

GOLDMAN: Just as the beverage industry didn`t need another beverage,
another me too beverage, the business world or book shelf didn`t need
another business book.

MATHISEN: A couple of years ago Goldman noticed that one of his sons
was hooked on comic books.

GOLDMAN: I supposed to tell him, don`t read comic books, do your
homework. He kind of lured me in with a comic and said, dad, we got to
find a way to make a business book as engaging, as inspiring as a comic

NALEBUFF: Lessons that are learned visually really stick with people,
right? That`s why we do TV. If you want people to remember what you`ve
done in the lessons, show, don`t just tell.

Great tea is a nickel a cup. Bad tea is a penny.

MATHISEN: Nalebuff did a show and tell at Comic-Con, alongside New
York artist Sungyoon Choi, who took on the arduous task about a page a day
of converting their story into a graphic novel.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s not rocket science, but it wasn`t easy,

NALEBUFF: It`s not fiction. So, I prefer that. We should call it
novel graphics.

MATHISEN: The process was novel, too.

business strip before.

MATHISEN: She learned things like how they expanded beyond natural
food stores and how a decision to buy a bottling plant cost tens of
thousands of dollars a day. And she turned their lessons into what amounts
to a screenplay.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There were countless rejections and two near-death
experiences for the company and ourselves.

NALEBUFF: Those bubbles are basically the length of a tweet, so
written in tweets with good grammar.

GOLDMAN: But our story has so many visual elements, whether it`s the
tea gardens, the label design, the bottling plant, the personal stories
that go on and this is a way to make the story come alive.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I tried to make you or Seth react to the office
figure explaining.

MATHISEN: Choi grew up in South Korea reading manga, a Japanese style
of story telling. In Japan, the manga business has been estimated at $5
billion a year. Here it`s a tiny fraction of that, maybe $200 million.

CHOI: If anything that could happen to lie, like using a life story
like manga covers all that.

MATHISEN: Nalebuff has high hopes with the comic format. “Mission in
a Bottle” has already popped up in college classrooms not just at Yale, but
in Michigan, Maryland, American, and Babson.

NALEBUFF: We`re able to take complicated ideas and by illustrating
them, get people to pay attention, have it sink in.

MATHISEN: He may be on to something. Earlier this year, a University
of Oklahoma study showed students retained more information after reading a
graphic novel than a traditional textbook.

NALEBUFF: It`s not as if people are doing a lot of homework these
days. So if you get somebody to read and remember it, call it a victory.

MATHISEN: A different medium delivering a potentially valuable

NALEBUFF: This book is really emphasizing all the things that went
wrong because if you can avoid mistakes we made, that will save you

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s a guide to building a mission-driven business
in a profit-driven world.


MATHISEN: Seth Goldman is still in charge of that mission, staying on
as Tea-EO at Honest Brands. Barry Nalebuff no longer with the company. He
kept his day job, teaching at Yale where they sing boola, boola, he`s got
the moola.

That`s their fight song, as you already know.

HERERA: He does.

MATHISEN: Such a simple idea, but — well, from often the simplest
come the greatest.

HERERA: Yes, come the greatest fortunes. That`s so true.

Have a great weekend, everybody. That`s it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Susie will be back here on Monday.
Thanks for joining us.

MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thanks for me as well. Have a
great evening and weekend, everybody. We`ll see you back here on Monday


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