Patti Domm, CNBC.com’s Posts

Corporate earnings forecasts for the second quarter were lowered so much that companies are easily beating them, and expectations for negative profit growth are already expected to turn positive, after just the first several dozen reports.

Stocks are surging on the trade truce, but it may be a short-lived rally once investors realize it could take months of tough talks to get to a trade agreement and the risk of more tariffs remains.

The monthly jobs number is always important but this time around it could be even bigger news, since it may actually help tell us how much the Fed will cut interest rates this summer.

This just might be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s toughest meeting yet, because whatever the outcome, odds are high that it will disappoint a large group of people, and that’s not even counting President Donald Trump.

Even with President Trump and the markets calling for lower interest rates, the Fed is not likely to make a move when it meets next week though it is expected to smooth the way for a rate cut later in the summer.

President Donald Trump’s threats to slap more tariffs on China are being viewed as a bargaining tactic, and analysts say the most likely outcome is still a deal over an all-out trade war.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said technical issues may have made ADP’s report on the April job market look much stronger than it actually was.

Chevron’s $33 billion acquisition of Anadarko sparked speculation the oil patch will see a new wave of consolidation as major players look to build scale and lower costs in the shale sector.

February’s job growth slowed to a crawl, but it is temporarily sluggish growth and not a sign of recession.

Investors everywhere are watching the 2,800 level on the S&P 500 to see if the stock rally will fizzle there, or break through, signaling the potential for new highs.

The unemployment rate has been a perfect forecaster of recession, and it appears to be edging closer to triggering that signal.

The sudden and unexpected plunge in December’s retail sales data raised new concerns about recession, but economists also say the biggest drop in nine years clashes with other data and may be suspect.

Morgan Stanley equity strategists believe the stock market priced in an earnings recession when it plunged to December’s low, and it is very likely to retest that level.

Crude prices jumped on Tuesday after the U.S. State Department ordered companies to cut all of their oil imports coming from Iran to zero by November. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery traded 3 percent higher at $70.19 per barrel, erasing earlier losses and breaking above $70 for the first time since May 25. …