Transcript: Nightly Business Report – October 11, 2019

ANNOUNCER:  This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Sue Herera and Bill
Griffeth.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES:  We`ve come to a very substantial phase one deal.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  Phase one.  The U.S. and China reach a partial accord on trade and said tariff increase also not go into effect next we can, giving investors something to cheer about.  

BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  Brexit breakthrough?  The odds of the U.K. making an orderly exit from the European Union have improved.  And that has lifted sentiment.  

HERERA:  So, what`s next?  That is the big question investors are asking,
with a heavy dose of earnings just around the corner.  

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, October 11th.  

Good evening, everyone, and welcome.  What at a day and what a week.  

On this Friday, the market got a little of what it`s been looking for, a
partial trade deal.  President Trump met with China`s vice premier at the
White House where the two sides announced the first phase of what they call a substantial trade deal.  Investors were upbeat all day about something, anything happening.  And they got it.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 319 points to 26,816, after
rising more than 500. The Nasdaq was up 106 and the S&P 500 rose 32.  And all major indexes were higher for the week on the hope that progress was being made in trade.  

Bob Pisani has more on the market`s response.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  The rally rolled on today with the Dow having the best day since early June.  All three major averaging snapping three-week losing streaks.  Investors cheered prospect of a partial U.S.-China trade deal.  The question now is, how much more steam does the rally have.  

The S&P has moved almost 40 points in the last 24 hours, now just percent 1 percent from its old highs.  The bigger question is, does the mini-deal get
the markets through Christmas?  

General consensus among traders is it`s not clear.  The key problem for the
markets is that it doesn`t really change the lower growth narrative for
2020, at least not yet.  Again, we don`t have a lot of details.  

And it certainly doesn`t end the trade war.  This is just a battle over
2020 where we see battles over capital flows and export controls and
industrial policy.  

Finally, two other factors fueled the rally besides trade talk.  That`s a
potential Brexit breakthrough which sparked a rally in Europe and word that Hong Kong protester discuss dialing down the protests, and that led to the Hong Kong stock market at better than 2 percent.  

Next week, fourth quarter earning season will kick-off with major banks
like JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) all reporting.  And markets will finally shift their focus back to
fundamentals.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFEETH:  Day two of those trade meetings in Washington wrapped up early this afternoon.  Then negotiators headed to the Oval Office where the first part of the deal was outlined.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP:  Because it`s such a big deal and it covers so much territory, that
doing it in sections and phases is I think really better.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFETH:  Kayla Tausche has been covering the story for us.  She joins us
tonight from us the White House.  

So, Kayla what is in this partial agreement?  

KAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Well, Bill, China pledged transparency on its currency moves.  It also removed some barriers to entry for non-Chinese financial services firms.  So, those firms don`t need a Chinese investor to operate there.  

In response, China will be buying up to $50 billion in U.S. farm products.  
And the U.S. will not be raising tariffs to 30 percent next Tuesday on $250
billion in U.S. goods.  

HERERA:  The president mentioned phasing this in.  So, what`s the time line for get going done?  

TAUSCHE:  He says his negotiators will be trying to writ the substance of
the deal over the next four to five weeks.  The time line is crucial
because on November 16th, President Trump and President Xi will both be
attending a multilateral summit in Chile, and that`s where it`s expected
this deal would be signed.  So, the clock is ticking for them to actually
put this agreement on paper.  

The president says after that, phase two negotiations will start
immediately.  But those are open ended.  We don`t know when those will wrap or whether there are deadlines associated with those.  And the president says there could be a third phase if they don`t get everything they want in that second deal.  

GRIFFETH:  Well what is there to be done?  What issues still need to be
worked out at this point?  

TAUSCHE:  Well, there is still a lot to be worked out at this point.  For
instance, China pledged to open the financial service industry for three
specific sectors.  But the U.S. was asking for a multitude of that.  They
were asking for several more industries to be opened.  And they want China to deliver on that.  

They also want changes to China`s intellectual property laws which China so far has been unwilling to grant.  

And then there`s Huawei.  China has been looking for the U.S. to grant
licenses to Huawei and to also remove the designation of a currency
manipulator.  Officials in the Oval Office today said those will come
separately and perhaps sooner than a phase two deal might.

GRIFFETH:  Kayla Tausche at the White House, thanks, Kayla.  

HERERA:  And now to Brexit and the U.K.`s efforts to leave the European
Union.  It appears some unexpected progress has been made and a pathway to a possible deal is starting to emerge.  

Willem Marx is in London tonight.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLEM MARX, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  For the past three years, this French politician has walked, talked and breathed Brexit.  Michel Barnier is the E.U.`s top negotiator in talks with the U.K.  And by now, even he may be running out of steam.  

MICHEL BARNIER, E.U. CHIEF BREXIT NEGOTIATOR:  Brexit is like climbing a mountain.  We need vigilance, determination and patience.  

MARX:  But today, Barnier met his British counterpart, Stephen Barclay, and their smiles and handshakes help boosts pound sterling.  That`s because currency traders and investors sensed the two sides may be approaching a long elusive agreement, one that may avoid a disorderly and economically damaging British departure from the E.U.  

In private, senior European officials tell me they are slightly more
hopeful, but in public, they remain rather reticent.  

MINA ANDREEVA, E.U. COMMISSION SPOKESWOMAN:  I`m not going into emotion from the podium.  We are working towards a deal because this is the determination to arrive at a deal.  And I think if there is a will, there
is, of course, a way.  Otherwise, people would not be working on this.  

MARX:  Among those working hard is the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar.  Their shared stroll on Thursday
afternoon seemed to spark a breakthrough.  But even the ever Brexit basher, E.U. Council President Donald Tusk acknowledged on a visit to Cyprus.  

DONALD TUSK, EUROPEAN COUNCIL PRESIDENT:  Yesterday, when the Irish Taoiseach and U.K. prime minister met, they both saw the first time a
pathway to a deal.  I have received promising signals from the Taoiseach
that a deal is still possible.  

BORIS JOHNSON, U.K. PRIME MINISTER:  Nice to meet.  

MARX:  Back in Britain, Boris Johnson batted away questions about
concessions he may have made over customs checks at the Irish border.  

JOHNSON:  It would be wrong of me to give a running commentary on the
negotiations.  And why — with the greatest possible respect, I think look
at everything that I have said previously.  I think you can draw your
conclusions from that.  

MARX:  His critics may still consider him a political paper tiger, but if a
deal is finally sketched out this weekend, the prime minister may have
painted his way out of a particularly perilous corner.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Willem Marx in London.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFETH:  Back here, the Federal Reserve said today it plans to start
buying treasury bills in order to avoid unexpected strains in money markets and steady short-term interest rates.  The purchases will continue into the second quarter of next year.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the move is not designed as emergency stimulus but rather to keep the plumbing of the financial system operating smoothly.  

HERERA:  Let`s turn now to Luke Lloyd to talk more about markets and what to expect next.  He`s an investment strategist at Strategic Wealth
Partners.

Luke, welcome.  Nice to have you here.  

LUKE LLOYD, STRATEGIC WEALTH PARTNERS INVESTMENT STRATEGIST:  Glad to be here.  

HERERA:  So, we got a partial trade deal.  The market was up about 50
points and then it lost better than 200 points.  

So, how do you read that?  What was — was the market disappointed or just
looking ahead to next week?  

LLOYD:  So, day after day, the thing that continues to drive the market is
the recent news about trade.  And we`re really trying to tune out the
political noise right now and take a long-term perspective.  We really
believe that the — we`re in a trade range bound until a deal gets done.  
When I hear partial deal, I hear that they can`t agree on big terms right
now.  

GRIFFETH:  And what does that do to the market?  I mean, you know, the big parts have been about the impact its having on manufacturing, and on
agricultural especially.  And that seems to be easing up a little bit with
this partial agreement.  

LLOYD:  Absolutely.  So, right now, international data is kind of weak.  
So, what that`s going to do this partial deal is probably ease up tensions
on that.  But in regards to the international side, we`re stilling seeing
yellow flashing lights.  If we continue to see, we`re really going to be
watching the numbers closely until they get better.  

HERERA:  And does that mean increased volatility until we do get — you
know, final pen on paper?  

LLOYD:  Absolutely, the volatility here is to stay.  We have the upcoming
election in the year.  And no matter if the trade deal gets done or not,
and until growth reaccelerate and stabilize, volatility is going to stay.  
So, really, we`re going to be watching those upcoming earning season, these the next two or three months, to really make sure that numbers are good.  

The U.S. consumer is still strong.  As long as the U.S. consumers stay
strong, I think that`s going to make the economy still good, because I
think the world right now is watching the U.S. consumer.  

GRIFFETH:  And they`re going to watch the Fed later this month.  The
president said today in the Oval Office there, he would like to see them
cut interest rates even though they have this partial deal.  And in fact,
the expectations on Wall Street for another cut this month went down after
this deal was announced.  

Do you want to weigh in?  What are you expecting here?  

LLOYD:  So, I really think that the Federal Reserve is going to really cut
interest rates this month even though the probability went down because of the partial trade deal.  Because we`re at least one more this year whether
October or the end of the year.  But really, we still think that the
Federal Reserve needs to cut two more times this year to make sure that we
fix this inverted yield curve.  And we really continue to go down the right
path in regards to economic growth.  

HERERA:  Luke Lloyd with Strategic Wealth Partners — thanks, Luke.  

LLOYD:  Thanks for having me.  

GRIFFETH:  In the meantime, tech stocks rose sharply today on the news of
that partial trade agreement.  Semiconductor makers in particular may be
feeling the biggest relief simply because of that sector`s exposure to
China.  

Josh Lipton has more.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOSH LIPTON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Chip stocks move on trade headlines and for good reason.  China is an important end market for these companies.  Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Micron, Qorvo, Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) all get roughly 40 to 60 percent of their revenues in China.  China is also a vital lynch pin in semi-supply chains.  

Today, the chips move higher.  The SMH, an ETF that tracks the chips has
now surged more than 40 percent this year, on track for its best year in a
decade.  

Beyond trade headlines, semis have moved higher on what analysts say are
improving fundamentals, specifically that smartphone shipments have been better than feared.  And that a recovery in the data center business they say looks likely in the fourth quarter.  Of course, there are risks for
chip investors too.  Do those improving fundamentals actually hold up?  

And big questions remain.  There have been talks of the Trump
administration planning to allow the sale of some supplies to Huawei, a
Chinese tech giant that buys a lot of semiconductor components from U.S.
companies but administration officials saying they are not dealing with
Huawei at this time.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Josh Lipton, San Francisco.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA:  It is time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and
Downgrades”.  

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.  The analyst says the legal overhang on the share price is overdone.  The price target is $155.  Shares rose more than 1.5 percent to $131.33.  

Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi.  The
analyst cites, quote, terrific growth of its hard seltzer brand, Truly.  
The price target is $448.  The stock was up nearly 4 percent to $397.03.  

GRIFFETH:  Roku was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC
Capital Markets.  The analyst there cited strong fundamentals, as well as
the streaming trends these days.  Price target, $155.  The stock gained
more than 4.5 percent to $121.60.  

Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) was downgraded to hold from buy at Argus
Research.  The analyst cited the outlook for increased costs and softer
sales growth that the company talked about yesterday.  Firm says that the
stock is likely to remain volatile a as a result and shares fell a fraction
today to $52.95.  

HERERA:  Still ahead, our market monitor and why investors may be able to find some big gains in small cap stocks.   

(MUSIC)

HERERA:  Oil prices climbed after of an explosion on an Iranian tanker
raised tensions in the Middle East.  That led to concerns of potential
output disruption in that region.  The commodity also got a lift from
optimism surrounding the U.S.-China trade talks.  Today, the price of
domestic crude settled 2 percent higher.  

GRIFFETH:  In the news tonight, that California wildfire, this one broke
out overnight north of Los Angeles.  About 100,000 people have been
evacuated so far.  And some freeways have been closed.  In so-called saddle
ridge fire has spread to more than 4,700 acres.  And the cause remains
under investigation at this point.  

HERERA:  General Motors (NYSE:GM) took the unusual steps of appealing
directly to striking employees, circumventing UAW leadership.  In a blog
post, the auto maker outlined the terms of its latest offer to end the work
stoppage.  In response, the UAW sent a message to its members saying, it
continues to work to get a good agreement and to end the strike.  

GRIFFETH:  Wendy`s helps customers have a big appetite for breakfast and
that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”, with the burger chain
unveiling to investors its full breakfast menu.  

Wendy`s expects breakfast to account for 10 percent of daily sales.  That
menu will be launched early next year.  And investors ate it up.  

HERERA:  Um-hum.  

GRIFFETH:  Sending shares nearly 4 percent higher to $20.78.  

Meanwhile, Ford said today it is seeing a decline in its second largest
market.  That would be China.  Vehicle sales there dropped 30 percent in
the latest quarter.  The automaker is still planning to launch more than 30
new models in China over the next few years, including electric vehicles.  
Ford up about 2 percent today to $8.78.  

And Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) topped speck aches as the industrial products
distributor so that its strategy of higher prices helped offset tariffs and
inflation.  Shares rose more than 17 percent today to $36.34.  

HERERA:  IAC Interactive is planning to spin off its controlling interest
in the dating service Match Group to IAC shareholders.  IAC will also
eliminate matches dual class structure.  IAC was up a fraction to $227.03.  

Uber is increasing its presence in the Latin American grocery delivery
business by acquiring a majority stake in a company called Corner Shop.  
Specifics of the deal were not disclosed but its Uber`s continuing efforts
to expand beyond the core ride-sharing platform.  The stock rose more than 4 percent to $30.13.  

And SAP CEO Bill McDermott will be stepping down.  Two members from the software company`s executive board will be sharing the CEO duties.  This comes as SAP reported a preliminary rise in revenue and cloud bookings.  Shares were up 9.5 percent to $126.20.  

GRIFFETH:  Time for our weekly market monitor.  Our guest this we can has three small cap stocks in the apparel retail sector.  

Jay Kaplan is co-manager of the Royce dividend value fund.

Jay, good to see you.  Thanks for joining us tonight.  

JAY KAPLAN, ROYCE DIVIDEND VALUE FUND CO-PORTFOLIO MANAGER:  You`re welcome.  

GRIFFETH:  And the first one is American Eagle.  Now, this one has the
combination of a high dividend yield, 3.6 percent.  And the stock cut in
half in the last year or so.  

You must love this for that reason.  

KAPLAN:  Well as the contrarian that I am, I do love stocks that have been
cut in half.  But it`s also good when they have a good reason for the stock
to go up.  And let me tell you a bit about why that is.  

They are the number one seller of women`s jeans in America.  They`re the
number two seller of jeans in total in the country.  And there is a —
there is a denim cycle.  And jeans are back in popularity again.  So that`s
really good.  

But what`s really exceptional is they have a brand called Aerie.  Aerie
sells intimate apparel to young ladies ages 15 to 25.  And it`s more
authentic brand, it`s regular people rather than supermodels of the
Victoria Secret.  

GRIFFETH:  Right.

KAPLAN:  They`re only at 23 states now and it`s going to be a nationwide
business one day.  

HERERA:  Your second pick is designer brands.  DSW (NYSE:DSW) stores and they are launching a kids line.  

KAPLAN:  They put kids throughout the whole chain.  That`s been really
good.  Navy consolidated and acquisition they did in Canada.  That`s also
really good.  

But what`s really interesting is an acquisition of the Camuto Brands which
will allow them to do their own private labels.  And that should increase
margins a lot and you have a really big dividend there, too.  So, it`s
great.  

GRIFFETH:  Yes, that one almost yielding 6 percent at this point.  

KAPLAN:  It is.  

GRIFFETH:  And here`s one that`s not.  That`s Caleres.  This is a company
that`s been around since the 1880s in various incarnations.  It`s an
apparel retailer, another one where the stock has gone down, but it only
yields 1.25 percent right now.  

KAPLAN:  Well, it does right now because they spend a lot of their cash on
buying women`s brands.  They`re one of the leaders in women`s brands with Naturalizer and Sam Edelman for example.  But they also own the famous footware chain and there is a about to be a cycle with brand new Nike (NYSE:NKE) product there.  So, that should be really good and really
exciting and really be great for sales.  

HERERA:  So, it sounds like you`re really betting on the consumer.  So, the
consumer is still strong in your book?  

KAPLAN:  The consumer is strong.  You know when we talk about the fear of recession and — and by the way there is no recession yet.  Consumer
spending is still OK.  And the stocks have really discounted a terrible
outlook.  I don`t think the outlook is quite that bad.  

GRIFFETH:  And given the mandate of your fund, you`re always looking for
these dividend payers so that you`re paid even if the stock going down,
right?  

KAPLAN:  We are looking for dividends.  You know, we don`t necessarily care if the dividends are large or small.  But we want to see dividends and we think that`s a great indicator of what good management teams can do with free cash flow.  

GRIFFETH:  Very good.  Jay Kaplan with Royce Dividend Value Fund — good to see you again, Jay.  Thanks.  

KAPLAN:  Thanks, again.  

HERERA:  There has been a lot of talk among Democratic presidential
hopefuls about taxing the rich, often arguing that they don`t pay their
fair share.  The problem is no one can agree on exactly how much wealth
Americans pay in taxes.  

Robert Frank digs through the numbers.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERT FRANK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  The tax headlines this week were all about how the rich pay lower tax rates than the rest of America.  Articles and op-eds in “The New York Times (NYSE:NYT)” and “Washington Post (NYSE:WPO)” and other publications said that the first time in over 10 years, the richest 400 Americans paid only 23 percent of their income in taxes.  While the bottom half of Americans paid 24 percent.  

The research is from a new book by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman.  The two economist at University of California Berkeley who are advising
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders on both of their wealth taxes.  And the economists looked at estimated taxes paid, so that includes federal, state, payroll, local and property taxes, and then calculated the total of those taxes as a share of people`s income.  And the numbers are proof they say the rich should be taxed more.  

But other economists say their findings may be misleading.  The economists did not for instance include the earned income tax credit and other transfers that help lower earners and since the tax rates for the richest 400 Americans are not available, the economists estimated those tax rates based on corporate profits.  More widely accepted numbers from the
Congressional Budget Office show the rich do in fact pay higher rates than
the rest of America.  The average 1 percent pay average federal rates of 33
percent, compared with about 14 percent or less for the bottom earners.  

Jason Furman, who`s Obama`s economic adviser, looked at all taxes paid and found that the top 1 percent found a total tax rate of 40 percent compared to less than 20 percent for those at the bottom.  As Furman tweeted, the standard data shows that the tax system is overall progressive.  

Now, Furman and others say there are strong arguments for raising taxes on the wealthy.  But for now, the numbers appear to show that the wealthy pay higher rates than the rest of America.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Robert Frank.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFETH:  And coming up, it`s the biggest venture capital backed private
company out there.  You may not know it.  But your kids probably do.  

(MUSIC)

HERERA:  Here`s a look at what to watch for next week.  

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and United Healthcare are just some of the companies reporting their earnings.  On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book which is an anecdotal look at the economy across the country.  And on Friday, tariffs on imports from the European Union are set to go into effect.  And that is what to watch for next week.  

GRIFFETH:  When Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) first announced its cryptocurrency project called Libra, it had a lot of big financial companies onboard.  But today, a number of them say they will no longer be part of it; eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Visa (NYSE:V), MasterCard (NYSE:MA) and Stripe all said that they see potential in the project but they have chosen to focus on other efforts instead.  

This comes just a week after PayPal announced its withdrawal.  

HERERA:  Most of the time we talk about companies that are publicly traded.  But it is also important to watch private companies.  Even those you
probably haven`t heard of.  

Julia Boorstin tells us about one such company growing very, very quickly.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  China based ByteDance is the most valuable private venture-backed company in the world.  Valued at $75 billion.  ByteDance`s company most familiar to American consumers is TikTok.  It`s a video-sharing app known for 15 second lip syncing videos.  It`s been downloaded over half a billion times this year alone.  

ByteDance has about a dozen other popular apps, mostly in Asia.  Its
flagship is Toutiao, a Chinese news and information app.  It also owns
selfie app, Faceu, Snapchat competitor Duoshan, and Indian social media
platform Helo.  

ByteDance says its family of apps reach 1.5 billion users around the world
every month.  The company reportedly generated $7 billion in revenue in the first half of this year.  

With U.S.-based TikTok business is still nascent.  

TikTok sells branded hashtags and is experimenting with in-app ads.  But
despite being the most popular in the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store in the first half of the year, TikTok faced a significant risk.  TikTok`s content
creator can secure sponsorships or get tips by fans.  But TikTok does not
share ad revenue like YouTube does, raising risks that creators could ditch
the platform.  Plus, there is TikTok`s Chinese ownership.  

ALEX HERN, THE GUARDIAN:  The problem with a lot of the way that the
Chinese government uses its soft power abroad is that it rarely needs to
tell companies what to do.  They act in a way that requires sort of
companies to guess what the government does and do it preemptively.  
There`s no orders coming down from on high.  They`re just the understanding that you will do what Beijing wants.  

BOORSTIN:  Concerns about censorship prompting Senator Marco Rubio to call for government review of ByteDance`s ownership of TikTok.  TikTok has already been fined nearly $6 million by the FTC to settle allegation that
it illegally collected personal information from children.  The company has
promised to ramp up protections as it works to avoid more regulatory
scrutiny.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFETH:  And before we go, a final look at the day on Wall Street.  Word
of the partial trade deal sent the market higher.  The Dow advanced 319
points after rising more than 500 asset part of the day.  Nasdaq was up
106.  The S&P rose by 32.  And all of the major averages were higher for
the week.  

HERERA:  And what a week it was.  

GRIFFETH:  Indeed.  

HERERA:  That is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT tonight.  I`m Sue Herera.  Thanks joining us.  

GRIFFETH:  I`m Bill Griffeth.  Have a great weekend.  We`ll see you Monday.  

END

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