ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Sue Herera and Bill
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: What a week. Stocks cap a volatile and nerve-wracking stretch with big games. Now, investors want to know what happens next.
Raise the roof. Mortgage rates are low, builders should be ecstatic, but
it is not working out that way for the housing market.
Road show. It is a big weekend for classic cars and the auction block is
about to hit top speed.
Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, August 16.
Good evening, everyone. And welcome. Bill has the evening off.
Take a deep breath. The weekend is here and the stomach-turning week is
finally over. The good news for long-term investors is that it finished
with gains. Wall Street was upbeat and the bond market calm, unlike the
prior days which were wild. On Monday, stocks dropped 380 points as
investors feared an escalation of the trade — an escalation of the trade
On Tuesday, stocks popped about the same amount, on a delay on some of
those tariffs. But Wednesday, the Dow fell 800 points, its worst decline
of the year. Thursday, stocks bounced and today, the bulls came back. The
Dow rallied 326 points to 25,886. The Nasdaq was up 129, and the S&P 500
But today`s gains were not enough to lift the major averages for the week.
Dominic Chu explains what was behind today`s rise.
DOMINIC CHU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Stocks staged a rebound today and it was a confluence of events pushing the markets higher including talks of war, economic stimulus, upbeat comments from top bankers and possible hopes for trade talks to continue.
The stock market has been taking cues from the bond market all week and
today global yields bounced back on reports that Germany plans to put into
place a stimulus plan in the event of a recession that moved German bund
yields off their lows which in turn moved U.S. yields off their lows.
We also had upbeat comments from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan adding to the optimism. Moynihan said he sees no underlying signals of recession. Consumer spending is still going strong compared to 2018 and the situation in Hong Kong is serious but does not pose a big threat as a financial center to Hong Kong.
Add to that, investor optimism over trade talks, there`s no question it has
been a wild week and a wild month for stock market investors. In fact, the
average Dow trading range so far in August has been 473 points, but the
biggest headlines dominating the market`s attention continue to be tariff
talks and global interest rate policy, and that will continue.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Dominic Chu at the New York Stock
HERERA: So what happens next and should investors expect more volatility in the days and weeks ahead.
Joining us is Kenny Polcari. He`s managing principal at Butcher Joseph
Good to see you, Kenny.
KENNY POLCARI, BUTCHER JOSEPH ASSET MANAGEMENT MANAGING PRINCIPAL: Always a pleasure to see you.
HERERA: And what a week. But you say investors should not panic?
POLCARI: Right. And so, we have this conversation every time the market
seems to go through one of these hissy fits, right? So the last thing that
a long-term investor should do is make an emotional decision. And
typically, you make emotional decision when you see days like we`ve had,
which is exactly the wrong time to do it.
Take a step back. See what is going on. Listen to the conversation.
Understand whether or not fundamentally, the story has really changed or
whether or not these are just issues that, you know, we continued to talk
In fact, they`re just issues we`ve continued to talk about. There`s
nothing new that happened this week other than that small inversion of the yield curve on whatever day it was, Wednesday, which created this panic in the algorithms, which created the big sell-off.
POLCARI: But for the most part, a long-term investor should do just that.
They should look at their portfolio, they should see the names they like.
They should take advantage of some of the price dislocation in some of the
great names that they have.
HERERA: And you made the point to me earlier that you think this
volatility is going to continue well into the fall.
POLCARI: Well, I think it`s — August and September tend to be volatile
months just because of the time of the year and what happens. You know,
next week we have — there`s not a lot of data coming out next week, but
there is Jackson Hole, which is that big, you know, bruha.
HERERA: Fed meeting.
POLCARI: Fed meeting at Jackson Hole. So they will be talking about broad
policy statements, broad monetary policy. And then you move into
September, and you start to have, you now, the fall nervousness as mutual
funds start to rebound, as they get ready for year-end. You tend to have
volatility around that.
That being said, don`t get frightened by the volatility, but you should
take — as a long-term investor, you should take advantage of the
opportunity it creates.
HERERA: And you also made the point that President Xi has a big event
HERERA: It is the founding of the people`s democratic — republic.
POLCARI: Republic, right.
HERERA: And that comes in October.
HERERA: And you don`t think there will be much progress on trade, which
has been a driving factor in the market.
POLCARI: That`s right. And will continue to be a driving factor in the
market. But the reason I think that is because President Xi does not want
to appear to be forced at this time in not only their history but kind of
what is going on in that country to make a deal or to come to the table or
appear to have been forced to come to the table to make a deal. So — with
the United States.
So therefore I think they`re going to work, you know, kind of diligently at
pushing it off. They`re going to have a meeting in September. That was
part of the reason the market rallied again today, because they talked
about that meeting being on. But in reality, I don`t think you are going
to see much of a deal until we get into November/December.
HERERA: All right. So fasten the seatbelts. Thanks, Kenny. As always,
All right. We learned today that President Trump reached out to CEOs of
some of Wall Street`s biggest banks earlier in the week as the market
started to fall, and he asked them for their thoughts on the economy and
trade. One of the driving forces, as you know, behind the market`s big
Kayla Tausche is in Washington tonight.
KAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: As the Dow dropped hundreds of points Wednesday, executives of three top U.S. banks found themselves on the phone with President Trump in an impromptu 20-minute conversation that followed a previously scheduled regulatory meeting. They discussed the economy, the Fed and trade.
CEOs told the president they agreed China was a problem, but said the
uncertainty was hurting business confidence and investment. He was
receptive to that argument, one person familiar with the call said, but
reiterated he likes tariffs. After delaying some of those tariffs this
week, Trump acknowledged for the first time that consumers could end up
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The tariffs have really bitten into China. They haven`t bitten into us at all, except for the
reporters that want to make it look that way, but they don`t understand
what`s happening. The tariffs, we`ve taken in close to $60 billion in
tariff money, and the consumer has not paid for it. Now, at some point,
they may have to pay something.
TAUSCHE: Tensions with China remain high as it conducts military exercises on the Hong Kong border and slams U.S. arm sales to Taiwan. President Trump says he has a phone call scheduled with China`s President Xi, and in the past it has been those one-on-one negotiations that have improved relations.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche in Washington.
HERERA: A new report on housing shows that home building fell for a third straight month. Housing starts for July dropped 4 percent, but a rise in permits offered a glimmer of hope for the market since they are considered an indicator of what`s to come.
Diana Olick has more on the mixed signals being sent.
DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Homebuilders should be ecstatic. Mortgage rates are near three-year lows and just keep falling. The average rate on the 30-year fixed was over 5 percent last fall, now, it`s heading towards 3.5 percent.
While builders say they are seeing more demand, single family housing
starts aren`t exactly soaring. They rose just 2 percent annually in July.
Usually, starts rise as rates fall, but that has not been the case. The
two fell together for much of this year, only diverging in the last few
KB Homes CEO Jeff Mezger said: I`ve always maintained over the years that consumer confidence means more than rates to the home buying decision.
Consumer confidence in housing hit a record high in July, according to a
monthly Fannie Mae survey, but overall, consumer confidence fell in August according to the University of Michigan survey, which noted consumers concluded following the Fed`s lead that they may need to adopt a precautionary spending outlook in anticipation of a potential recession.
Still, others think the rate drop will make for a much stronger fall
IVY ZELMAN, ZELMAN & ASSOCIATES CEO: For every 25 basis point decline in the mortgage rate, that`s equivalent to about 3 percent cut in the price of the home. So, right now, home prices are down for the consumer more than 10 percent, so it makes it much more affordable. I think today, the housing market is responding to that lower rate. We are seeing very good activity, especially at the low end of the market.
OLICK: But the low end of the market is where supply is leanest. Prices
are rising fastest and buyers have the least wiggle room in their wallets.
If the economy falters, those buyers likely will pull back first.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.
HERERA: Housing`s mixed picture is not the only part of the economy that
doesn`t make much sense these days.
As Steve Liesman reports, there are a number of economic conundrums
investors are trying to navigate.
STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: If you are not confused about the economic outlook in the U.S., it`s because you may not be paying attention. Fed officials, investors and forecasters are trying to define the future course of the U.S. economy battling through numerous cross currents. There is weak global growth but U.S. economic growth still around 2 percent. There`s rapidly falling bonds suggest a recession may be coming in the months ahead.
But U.S. economic data that stayed pretty strong. Finally, there`s robust
consumer spending, but a manufacturing sector that may already be in
Even the titans of Wall Street disagree. Here is what trillion dollar fund
manager Ray Dalio said about the outlook.
RAY DALIO, BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES FOUNDER: Recessions are always
inevitable, the only question is when. And I think that —
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you see one coming?
DALIO: Yes, I think that in the next two years, let`s say prior to the
next election, there`s probably a 40 percent chance of a recession. I
think that you`re seeing this around the world.
LIESMAN: Not so, says David Rubenstein, founder of the private equity
giant, The Carlyle Group.
DAVID RUBENSTEIN, THE CARLYLE GROUP CO-FOUNDER: The U.S. economy is in pretty good state. We`re not in highland, but there`s no doubt as economies in Europe and Asia slow down and go into recession, we can`t completely avoid that. But at the moment, I don`t see a recession in the imminent future.
LIESMAN: Even today, the data is sending mixed signals. Consumer
confidence plunged to the lowest level of the year due to a small drop in
America`s perception of the current situation and a big drop in what is
expected for the future.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he takes market signals seriously when
figuring out where to set interest rates and probably will be cutting in
the coming months. But in figuring out how much, he will be navigating the cross currents of very low global bond yields and the dangers of a trade
war against economic data showing strong consumer spending, low
unemployment and decent U.S. growth, rough and confusing waters in which to pilot a ship as large as the U.S. economy.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Steve Liesman.
HERERA: It is time to look at some of today`s “Upgrades and Downgrades”.
TJX, the parent company of T.J.Maxx, Marshalls and Home Goods, was upgraded to buy from hold at Loop Capital. The analyst cites market share gains at the expense of department and specialty stores. The price target is $60. The stock rose more than 2 percent to $51.39.
Brinker, the parent company of Chili`s and other casual dining restaurants,
was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Stephens. The analyst says it expects the company`s same store sales growth of 2 percent to hold. The price target is $48. The stock rose more than 3-1/2 percent to $38.46.
Merck (NYSE:MRK) was initiated with an outperform rating in new coverage over at Leerink. The analyst cites the potential for expanded uses for its cancer drug Keytruda. The price target is $103. The shares gained nearly 2 percent to $85.06.
Still ahead, why the presidential candidates are getting an early start,
talking about your money.
HERERA: The CEO of Hong Kong`s flagship airline has resigned. The head of Cathay Pacific stepped down amid this week`s protests at the main airport, which is one of the world`s busiest. The airline stock fell sharply and it came under pressure from Chinese authorities to rein in employees. They were supporting pro-democracy protesters.
Today, the protests were peaceful, but concerns remain among the business
and investment community.
Here is Brian Sullivan.
BRIAN SULLIVAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: This political unrest, if you want to call it that, over the last couple of months and more rallies are expected this weekend, has disrupted the U.S. financial
markets. We have seen our markets on edge and we have seen some of the
Asian markets decline except the last couple of days.
We have spoken with numerous members of the financial markets here and we said, will scenes like this dissuade investors, CEOs, company heads or even public offerings from what happening in what is arguably the financial center of Asia? One investment banker told us today, that despite
protests, one thing the Hong Kong market has going for it is a history of
relative company stability.
GEOFF HILL, INTERNATIONAL PACIFIC SECURITIES: It`s had very few failures of major listed Chinese companies here, which means that due diligence that is done in Hong Kong is done with understanding of how China operates. Whereas, U.K., the U.S. in particular, Singapore and even Frankfurt is littered with failed Chinese IPOs.
SULLIVAN: Now, of course, that stability which has taken place over years
and even decades may come into question if we continue to see scenes like
this, peaceful as they are, and companies, executives and workers decide
there may be better places for their capital for their companies and even
for their families.
Reporting from Hong Kong for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Brian Sullivan.
HERERA: We`re still more than a year from the next presidential election,
but already, candidates are talking about your money.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: See, the bottom line is — I know you like me and this room is a
love fest, I know that, but you have no choice but to vote for me because
your 401(k)s, down the tubes. Everything is going to be down the tubes.
So whether you love me or hate me, you got to vote for me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HERERA: And the president isn`t the only one taking aim at your pockets.
Democrats are as well.
So, let`s turn now to John Harwood in Washington.
John, good to see you.
JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Sue.
HERERA: You know, given the week we just had, a lot of people are
wondering how strong the U.S. economy is and has it changed the 2020
campaign for the president?
HARWOOD: I think it has begun to change it, Sue. And, you know, that was
an unusual statement from the president after a week of stock market
volatility to cast himself as the protector of people`s 401(k)s. But,
really, the campaign so far has been mostly fought out on cultural grounds,
who is an American, the whole questions of identity, immigration, white
voters feeling apprehensive and immigrants feeling under siege.
Now, this is shifting to more toward an economic terrain because, all of a
sudden, for the first time in a long time, people are feeling a little bit
more vulnerable. And that`s going to change this dialogue going forward.
HERERA: And does it — will the president`s campaign be able to adjust to
HARWOOD: Well, they`re going to have to. The president has been more
comfortable discussing cultural issues and trying to rouse his blue collar
base with those cultural messages, but he`s got a different problem on his
hands that he hasn`t been used to, so far.
So far the cultural — the culture wars have alienated some voters who are
happy with the economy. Now the president`s got to worry about that
happening in reverse. That is people who like his messages about
immigration, for example, but all of a sudden have a new sense of
vulnerability on the economy. The president has been pretty stable in the
polls, but does it drive some people away from him? They have to figure
out how to answer that question.
HERERA: Now, let`s turn to the Democratic candidates, and there are many of them certainly at this point. What do they need to do to take advantage of what is happening in the economy?
HARWOOD: Interesting cross currents, Sue, on the Democratic side. For Joe Biden, who is the familiar front-runner, I think the more uneasy people
feel, the better it is for him. He`s a familiar, stable character,
especially for the African-American voters that he is dominating right now,
even though there are two African-Americans in the race.
It is a challenge I think for Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders who have
the most radical economic positions. Do those become more scary to people as they`re in a situation?
And Kamala Harris (NYSE:HRS), who is probably the candidate below the top three to come up, she hasn`t really defined her economic positions fully. Does she go for more safety as she has done on health care compared to Sanders and Warren or does she go for the fences? She will be sketching
out her economic positions in more detail in the coming weeks.
HERERA: John Harwood in Washington. Thanks, John.
HARWOOD: You bet.
HERERA: Appreciate it.
HARWOOD: Well, the trade war hits Deere`s bottom line and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.
The heavy equipment maker missed earnings and revenue estimates with the company citing farmers delaying purchases because of uncertainty with the export market. Deere also lowered its full-year guidance but the stock
still rose 4 percent to $129.43.
Revlon (NYSE:REV) is reportedly reviewing options that may include putting itself up for sale. Bloomberg says the cosmetics company retained advisers from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to consider strategic alternatives for potential sale of parts or all of its business. Revlon (NYSE:REV) is going
through financial struggles and facing increased competition in the
industry. The shares rose more than 9 percent to $16.77.
The FDA approved AbbVie`s new drug to treat rheumatoid arthritis with a
cost of nearly $60,000 a year. The approval comes as AbbVie faces
increased competition for Humira, its blockbuster treatment for the same
condition. AbbVie rose more than 2 percent to $64.43.
And Palo Alto networks executive vice president of worldwide sales is
stepping down after spending three years with the cybersecurity company.
Palo Alto says a search for his replacement is under way. Shares dropped
more than 7 percent to $199.27.
Well, if you look beyond trade and the economic headlines, there are stocks
that may be worth owning. Our market monitor says he has found some.
Joining us is Sandy Villere, portfolio manager of Villere Balance Fund with
about $2 billion under management.
Sandy, good to see you. Welcome back.
SANDY VILLERE, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, VILLERE BALANCED FUND: Thanks for having me back, Sue.
HERERA: You are looking for opportunity for stocks at more reasonable
VILLERE: That`s what I do, exactly, yes.
HERERA: Let`s start with your first pick, and that is Teleflex (NYSE:TFX).
It`s a medical device maker. Why do you like it?
VILLERE: Well, I think it is somewhat recession proof as well. It is a
pure play medical device company, and founded in about 1943. These guys
have a long history. They`ve got a really exciting product called UroLift,
of all of their products, but this one they just raised the target to where
it is going to grow from 30 percent up to 35 percent.
It`s a very untapped market and there`s about 12,000 interventional
urologists around and only on 2,200 platforms. We like this property and
this company. It is one we would buy in any dips or volatility in the
HERERA: Now, we are staying in the medical device field. Abiomed is your
next pick. You think you could get about 26 percent return, looking out
about 12 months. That would be one reason why you like it, but what is
going to drive that return?
VILLERE: Yes. So, Abiomed has a temporary pump called the Impella. When we interviewed different heart surgeons they tell us it gives them a bridge to decision where you can put in a temporary pump and sort of decide what exactly to do. A lot of times, patients are leaving with their native heart without having to do invasive heart surgery.
So, it is one that has almost no competition with over 350 patents, 500
million in cash and no debt. So, we love the balance sheet. We think it
will be a good one, and it trades at a very cheap 7.5 times enterprise
value EBITDA. So we like this one a lot.
HERERA: It is a less expensive heart pump, is it not? It is a value play
for the medical industry.
VILLERE: Yes, that`s a great point. This is — roughly speaking, it`s
about $25,000 when you compare it to more permanent heart pump that`s about $100,000. So, a very reasonable — a very reasonable device and something that is getting good reimbursement from CMS as well.
HERERA: Let`s finish up with on semiconductor. Why do you like that one?
VILLERE: This is going to be — this is not one of the more defensive
companies because it`s got exposure. It is a semiconductor company, so
it`s got exposure to the trade war, et cetera. But it is reasonable 9
So, what people don`t realize, it`s got incredible exposure to 5G build out
that`s going to be occurring over the next three to five years and I think
it`s going to be a big deal. Also, on iPhones as well as electric
vehicles, they`re getting more and more dollars of content on these devices
in electric vehicles as they go. So, I think this is going to be a big
winner and I see 30 percent upside, $22, $23 a share if they can trade at a
12 multiple on $1.80 in earnings. So, we like this one a lot.
HERERA: All right. Three ideas to go into the weekend with. Sandy,
thanks so much. Appreciate it.
VILLERE: Thanks for having me, Sue.
HERERA: Sandy Villere with Villere and Company.
Coming up, a glimpse at some of the world`s more unique and expensive
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERT FRANK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The big guns of car collecting here at Pebble Beach. Coming up, we will show you the most famous movie car in the word, 007`s DB5.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HERERA: Here is a look at what to watch for next week.
On Tuesday, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) reports its earnings, giving investors new information on the health of housing and the consumer.
On Wednesday, we`ll find out if lower mortgage rates helped increase the
sales of existing homes. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases
the minutes of its last meeting.
And that`s what to watch for next week.
Car lovers rejoice. Some of the rarest and coolest collectibles are on
display at America`s most prestigious car show, but as with most things,
the market for classic cars is changing.
Robert Frank kicks the tires in Monterey, California.
FRANK: It is the Woodstock for wealthy wheel heads. Nearly $400 million
worth of cars expected to sell here in Monterey and Pebble Beach this
weekend. So far, the classic car market seems to be powering through Wall
Street swings and the global slowdown.
Collectors say they hunt certain cars for years, and when one comes up for
sale, they pounce regardless of the stock market.
CHIP CONNOR, CAR COLLECTOR: There`s an emotional component and I`m a collector. You know, if I really want something I will find a way to get
it. Not stupidly, but outweigh the other factors, but we all find a way
WEBB FARRER, CAR COLLECTOR: So, some of the big guys, they say, you know what, this is my one chance to get the car and they`ll step up to spend the money to get it.
FRANK: The most expensive car to sell this week is actually a race between
two cars. The first is this 1939 Porsche Type 64. This is the first car
to actually wear the Porsche name. It could sell for over $20 million.
Now, neck in neck with that is the 1994 McLaren F1. This car retailed for
$800,000 back in the mid 1990s. This car today will sell between $21
million and $23 million which is why Jay Leno said his McLaren f1 is the
best investment he has ever made.
JAY LENO, JAY LENO`S GARAGE HOST: I bought my McLaren F1 in 1999 for $800,000, and the last offer I got it was $17,500,000, and one just sold
for $22 million.
FRANK: The market for big multi-million dollar Ferraris and Porsches has
cooled a bit, but millennial collectors are driving a boom in lower priced
vintage trucks, and SUVs and four wheelers, like this Ford Bronco selling
up to $80,000. And two movie cars are making cameos this weekend. James Bond`s silver 1965 DB5 made famous in “Goldfinger” sold last night at R.M. Sotheby`s for nearly $6.5 million.
Mecum Auctions has the Ferris Bueller Ferrari, actually a replica used in
the movie. It is expected to fetch over $200,000.
As the great Ferris Bueller once said, it is so choice, if you have the
means, I highly recommend picking one up.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Robert Frank in Monterey, California.
HERERA: And before we go, here is a look rather at the day`s final numbers from Wall Street. The Dow rallied 306 points. The Nasdaq was up 129 and the S&P 500 added 41. But for the week, the major averages were all lower.
And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for watching. Have a great weekend. We`ll see you right back here on Monday.
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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