Transcript: Nightly Business Report – August 2, 2019

ANNOUNCER:  This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Sue Herera and Bill
Griffeth.

BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  A week to forget.  The Nasdaq and the S&P have their worst week of the year as trade war fears ding investor confidence.

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  New ingredients.  And with those trade fears threatening to drag on well into the future, investors may have to start factoring in trade when making decisions.  So what should you do?

GRIFFETH:  And wouldn`t that be nice?  An app for cutting down commute
times.  Meet the entrepreneurs who think they`re on to something.  

All of that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, August 2nd.

HERERA:  Good evening, everyone, and welcome.  

Everybody has a bad day now and again, and some more than others.  The same is true for stocks, and this was quite a week.  Ongoing fears over a trade war with China sent stocks lower.

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were off more than 3 percent this week.  The
Nasdaq, just about 4 percent.  It was the worst week of the year for those
indexes and the better than 2.5 percent loss for the do you marked the
second worst for 2019.  

As for today, the Dow lost 98 points to 26,485.  The Nasdaq dropped 107,
and the S&P was off 21.  

GRIFFETH:  Actually, a trade deal was reached today, one that will help the
nation`s farmers.  And while it wasn`t exactly the deal that Wall Street
has been waiting for, Kayla Tausche tells us it is connected to the
tensions with China.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Frustrated with the lack of progress in China talks, President Trump went to the Roosevelt room to announce a deal with Europe, boosting U.S. beef sales and benefiting a key group of supporters.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES:  My administration is standing up for our farmers and ranchers like never before.  We are
protecting our farmers.  We are doing it in many ways, including with
China.  

TAUSCHE:  Farmers have been the target of China`s retaliation so far.  The
administration has repaid them $28 billion.  Today, the Chinese government said it would retaliate further if the U.S. goes through with the new tariffs.

Two executives who declined to be named for fear of retaliation said China
could revoke licenses, launch cyberattacks or spring surprise audits on
them.  Consumer trade groups say tariffs haven`t worked and will only lead to higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing.

NEC Director Larry Kudlow dismissed the view, saying the impact would be
small.  

LARRY KUDLOW, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL DIRECTOR:  People worry about the impact on consumers and so forth.  As I`ve said in the past, any consumer impact is very, very small, minuscule.

TAUSCHE:  A senior administration official tells me that if China can
deliver positive action between now and September 1st, President Trump may reconsider, though Trump had that same outlook back in May when he
announced the last tariff hike on China and he went through with it anyway when Chinese officials didn`t deliver.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche at the White House.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFETH:  And late this afternoon, the president did say that tariffs on
E.U. autos are never off the table and also the U.K.`s “Telegraph”
newspaper is reporting that the White House is warning Britain it will not
get a free-trade deal unless a new tax affecting U.S. tech companies is
dropped.  

HERERA:  As K mentioned, China said it would retaliate if the U.S. imposes
new tariffs.  And as Eunice Yoon tells us, the government did not mince
words.  She is in Beijing for us.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

EUNICE YOON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Here in China, people are using a popular Chinese saying to explain President Trump`s decision, that president Trump changes his mind faster than flipping pages on a book. Chinese officials though haven`t been as generous.  The Commerce Ministry called the move a serious violation of a consensus at the G-20.  The country`s top diplomat said it was neither constructive nor correct, and the foreign ministry said Beijing would be forced to take counter measures.

It is the last point that is really worrying American businesses in China.  
The U.S./China Business Council said its members are worried about
increased regulatory scrutiny, delays in licenses and approvals, and
discrimination in government procurement tenders.  Retailers say American consumers will be hit hard, but Chinese manufacturers are worried, too.

We spoke to factories that sell to the U.S. and they said a 10 percent
tariff would be a blow to a sector that`s already under strain.  One
manufacturer who sells Christmas gifts said he would likely have to stop
selling to the U.S. all together.  

As for a trade deal, the “Global Times”, the communist paper, said that the
new tariffs would only lower the prospects of a trade deal, and that
Beijing will hunker down instead for a prolonged trade war.  

I spoke to a source familiar with the Chinese side`s thinking, and he said
that he`s worried that the Chinese negotiating team won`t take part in the
trade talks that are set for September in the United States because to the
Chinese the trade truce is off.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon in Beijing.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFETH:  And this latest round of proposed tariffs on Chinese imports
have items like smartphones, apparel and toys caught in the crosshairs of
the trade conflict.  So what could it potentially mean for consumer
spending here in the U.S., which has, of course, been an engine of growth
for our economy?  

Joining us is Brett Ryan.  He`s senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.  

Brett, good to see you.  Thanks for joining us tonight.  

BRETT RYAN, DEUTSCHE BANK SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST:  Great.  Thank you for having me on the program.

GRIFFETH:  Already, one trade group has been out saying consumers should look for higher prices at the back-to-school season and, of course, the important holiday shopping season.

What kind of impact do you see happening?  

RYAN:  Well, I would agree with the chairman of economic advisers, Mr.
Kudlow, that the impact from the tariffs themselves will be not very direct
in terms of consumer spending, but consumer spending should slow — is
expected to slow already over the back half of the year.  And the issue is
if the weakness in business confidence begins to affect the labor market
and hiring growth slows down, then that could spill over into consumer
confidence later this year, causing a sharper slowdown in consumer spending than what we are already expecting as the boost from tax cuts from last year continues to fade.

HERERA:  There`s also the psychological impact, is there not, on the
consumer with the headline risk?  We hear a lot about these trade tariffs
and we`re hearing whether or not it ends up to be true on a meaningful
basis, we hear a lot about the trickle down to the consumer.  At what point
does the consumer pull back based on the expectation that they will get
hit?  

RYAN:  That`s a very good point, Sue.  And the University of Michigan
survey noted today that consumers are already feeling a little bit anxious
about the policy uncertainty, and we could see confidence begin to tick
lower over the next few months.  And that in turn could have an impact on
consumer spending towards the end of the summer and into the back-to-school
season.  

GRIFFETH:  We have already been establishing we have essentially two
economies right now, where the consumer is strong but businesses are
holding back on investment because of fears about the trade.  So, what you
seem to be suggesting is that that lack of business investment or the
slowdown will eventually hurt the job market, which eventually hurts the
consumer.  Is that what we`re talking about here?  

RYAN:  Yes, that`s correct.  The business confidence tends to lead consumer
confidence, and when we see business confidence falling as quickly as we
are with the manufacturing ISM and the Chicago PMI, that does not bode well for consumer confidence the longer that this persists.

GRIFFETH:  Brett Ryan with Deutsche Bank, good to see you again.  Thanks
for joining us.  

RYAN:  Great.  Thank you for having me.  

GRIFFETH:  Yes.  

HERERA:  Well, the ongoing trade conflict has been happening for nearly a
year now and it is creating uncertainty in the market, as we saw today, and
with investors.  So, what should you be doing now to factor in the trade
dispute in your portfolio?  

Steve Massocca joins us, U.S. strategist with Wedbush.  

Good to see you, Steve.  Welcome.  

STEVE MASSOCCA, WEDBUSH SECURITIES U.S. MARKET STRATEGIST:  Good to be here.

HERERA:  As I mentioned, this has been going on for about a year now, and a number of analysts we have talked to have pointed out the fact that the
Chinese have a very long timeline — that`s the way they tend to think.  
So, there`s no indication this is going to end any time soon.  

So, how as an individual investor do you start to factor this into your
portfolio management?  

MASSOCCA:  Well, I don`t think you want to pay a whole lot of attention to
it quite frankly.  I don`t think that we`re going to see anything dramatic
out of this administration prior to the 2020 election.  So, we`ll see a lot
of talk and a lot of chatter, but nothing that will really be all that
meaningful to the market.  And yes, we corrected this week because of the
trade news, but, you know, stocks were extended.  They were also
disappointed that the Fed indicated this may be the one and only rate cut
that we have this week.  

So there were other factors involved in the decline.  But our feeling is
that trade policy will not be particularly negative for the market until we
get past the 2020 election cycle for the obvious reason.  

GRIFFETH:  Right.  

MASSOCCA:  The administration is not going to want to damage their chances in the election.

GRIFFETH:  You know, if you are looking for investments that are maybe
immune to the trade dispute, there are those who say you look to small
caps, for example, since they`re more focused on the domestic economy and not so much, you know, affected by tariffs.  Is that an area to look at?  I
mean, if we are looking for places to try and avoid the problems of the
trade conflict, is that an area to look at necessarily?  

MASSOCCA:  Absolutely.  And small caps have underperformed this year.  They have not had the same kind of gains that larger cap stocks have had.  So, it`s also an area you might find cheaper stocks.

Of course, as you point out, small cap companies tend to be domestically
oriented.  And that have exposure to international markets, although that`s not always the case, and investors should be careful about what stocks they select, because some companies do import and export even though they`re small in size.

HERERA:  What about hedging?  I know you believe in investing heavily in
equities, but would you go to alternative investments to perhaps hedge your bets in case trade really does have an impact?

MASSOCCA:  We have looked at hedging very closely.  We have used it on
occasion, and we find hedging to be very expensive right now.  We find it
chews up a lot of your gain.  

So, quite frankly, we haven`t been hedging and we can`t really find what we think is an inexpensive way to do it.  Certainly if that opportunity
presented itself, it is something that you could look at.  

HERERA:  OK.  

MASSOCCA:  But right now, we don`t find hedging to be effective.  

HERERA:  Steve, thank you very much.  Appreciate it.  

Steve Massocca with Wedbush.  

MASSOCCA:  You`re very welcome.  

GRIFFET:  On to the labor market now where a record run in job growth was not enough to offset trade concerns.  We learned this morning that the
economy added 164,000 jobs in July, essentially in line with the estimates
of 165,000.  Unemployment remained at 3.7 percent while wages rose.  

Now, this is the 106th straight month of job growth.  That`s the longest
streak ever, with more than 163 million people working, also a record.  

Ylan Mui has more for us tonight.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

YLAN MUI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Businesses are still hiring workers at a steady pace, but not as fast as they were before.  Job
growth in July was slower than in June, and the Labor Department lowered
its estimate for that month as well.  May`s number was revised down, too.  

Wage growth also leveled off in July.  Average hourly earnings were up 8
cents to $27.98, on par with the gain in June.  

The White House said those are all positive indicators.  

KUDLOW:  It was a very good jobs report.  People are flooding back into the
job market.  That tells me not only is the economy strong with the low
unemployment rate, but because of the increase in salaries and wages and
compensation, people are coming back.  

MUI:  But manufacturing appears to be cooling off.  The Labor Department
reported that job growth in the industry has been markedly slower than last year.  The sector added a solid 16,000 jobs in July, but the average for
the year is half that.  The manufacturing workweek fell to 40.4 hours in
July, the lowest level since 2011.  

Meanwhile, the retail industry also continued to struggle.  It shed 3,600
jobs in July, the sixth consecutive month of declines.  But there was still
plenty of bright spots, professional and technical services, health care
and social assistance, all of those industries added job, and the labor
force participation edged up from 62.9 percent to 63 percent.  

DIANE SWONK, GRANT THORNTON CHIEF ECONOMIST:  Almost all of the increase in participation rate came from black teens and those with less than a high school degree, and that`s really important because it means we are pulling in people who were formally not reengaged in this economy.

MUI:  Analysts say a slowdown in job growth should be expected.  The
unemployment rate is hovering around historic lows, which means there are simply fewer workers for high.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Ylan Mui in Washington.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA:  Up next, women taking flight.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JANE WELLS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  I`m Jane Wells in Anchorage, Alaska.  When is the last time you heard a female voice on an airplane come out and say, this is your captain speaking?  Not much.  Only 6 percent of the pilot at the major airlines in America are women, but the world needs pilots.  Where are the females?

We come to one of the top flight schools in the country, owned and operated by a woman.  That`s coming up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(MUSIC)

HERERA:  Over the next two decades, it is estimated hundreds of thousands
of pilots will be needed worldwide, and many of the major airlines are
making their pitch to have women be the leaders in the cockpit.  

Jane Wells has more from Anchorage, Alaska.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WELLS:  On an airstrip in Anchorage, Alaska, is one of the top flight
schools in the country, owned and operated by a woman who started a flight school after the one she was working at didn`t like her style.

JAMIE PATTERSON-SIMES, SKYTREK ALASKA FLIGHT TRAINING OWNER:  I sold my car for $8,000 and I renovated this building, and I had people knocking on my door from day one.

WELLS:  Jamie Patterson-Sims of Skytrek Alaska has been recognized as an
FAA gold seal flight instructor.  Yet women in the cockpit remain an
oddity.  Only about 6 percent of the pilot force at the top three airlines
are female.

And that surprises Beverley Bass, hired by American Airlines in 1976 and
its first female captain.  

BEVERLEY BASS, FORMER AMERICAN AIRLINES CAPTAIN:  You know, we talked about that all the time and I think for the most part, women are just still not aware that that is a job opportunity that is available to them.

WELLS:  Boeing (NYSE:BA) estimates the global aviation industry will need
800,000 new pilots over the next 20 years.  Men like Jesse Hefely and women like Madisen Minich, both taking lessons in anchorage with a female instructor.

JESSE HEFELY, STUDENT PILOT:  She doesn`t let me get away with anything, which I appreciate.

MADISEN MINICH, STUDENT PILOT:  My mom runs a huge corporation up here, so I`m super used to women telling me what to do.

WELLS:  All three major U.S. airlines have stepped up pilot recruiting,
targeting women specifically with financial aid for flight school.  And
this is an industry with no gender pay gap.  Pay is based purely on things
like the type of aircraft flown.  But surveys by Embry Riddle suggest
passengers still are not as comfortable with women in the cockpit as men.  

Beverley Bass who has seen it all says women pilots are no better or worse
than men, but they can multitask.  

BASS:  I know that I could cook dinner, feed a baby and talk on the
telephone all at the same time.  

WELLS:  She hopes a new generation of women will love flying as much as she has, each with her own favorite part of the experience.

MINICH:  Probably when the wheels lift off.  When you first rotate the
plane and you just kind of hover for a second, it is just the coolest
feeling ever.  

WELLS:  For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jane Wells in Anchorage, Alaska.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFETH:  ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) gets a lift from north of the border, and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus” with the energy giant
topping expectations as strength in its exploration and production division
offset weak result from its refining operation.  The company also benefited
from a tax rate change in Canada.  Shares were down a fraction today to
$71.75.  

And to ExxonMobil`s rival Chevron (NYSE:CVX) which reported mixed reports, beat earnings expectations but fell short on revenue, the company saw an increase in oil production and a termination fee that it received after it lost the bidding war for Anadarko actually added $720 million to its bottom line.  Stock was down a fraction to $120.73.

Meanwhile, IBM is lowering its earnings forecast for the year now that its
deal to buy a software company Red Hat (NYSE:RHT) has closed.  That $34
million acquisition was largest in IBM`s history and executive said that an
accounting adjustment related to it is going to reduce its earnings by
roughly a dollar a share this year.  The stock fell more than 2 percent to
$147.25.

HERERA:  Investor Carl Icahn is taking a more than 12 percent stake in the
data analytics company Cloudera.  Icahn says he plans to meet with
Cloudera`s management to increase its shareholder value.  Regulatory
filings also say Icahn may be looking for seats on the company`s board.  
The stock rose almost 4 percent to $6.60.

NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) is warning its current quarter result will come in
well below expectations, partly due to a decline in enterprise software
license renewals and what it calls weak macro economic environment.  The data storage company did say it remains confident in its long-term strategy but cut its fiscal 2020 outlook.  Shares plummeted more than 20 percent to $46.04.

And Campbell`s Soup has sold its Arnott`s cookie business and other
international assets to the private equity firm KKR (NYSE:KKR) for more
than $2 billion.  Campbell`s was up a fraction today to $42.34.  

CBS (NYSE:CBS) and Viacom (NYSE:VIA) have reportedly reached a working
agreement on who will lead the combined company if a merger is approved.  “The Wall Street Journal” says CBS`s acting executive would oversee all of CBS`s branded assets while the head of Viacom (NYSE:VIA) would take the CEO role of the proposed combined company.  CBS (NYSE:CBS) shares were down a fraction to $50.40.  Viacom (NYSE:VIA) shares were also off a fraction at $29.78.

GRIFFETH:  Now, to this week`s market monitor who has the names of three well-known global companies that he believes have good prospects for growth in the future.

Allen Bond is back with us.  He is co-manager of the Jensen Quality Growth
Fund.  

Allen, good to see you again.  Welcome back.  

ALLEN BOND, JENSEN QUALITY GROWTH FUND CO-PORTFOLIO MANAGER:  Hi.  

GRIFFETH:  And we start with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).  Now, we all
know about the talc-related lawsuits that it faces down the road.  As it
happens late this afternoon, a jury in Kentucky found in favor of Johnson &
Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), but that`s only one of tens of thousands of lawsuits
that it still faces.  And I assume you don`t feel it is a big overhang on
this company?  

BOND:  Yes, so Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), obviously a well-known health care business with a wide range of global businesses.  We think all poised to grow due to an aging population globally and developments in
pharmaceutical research, and the stock has been a bit weak this year due in part to the litigation issues that you mentioned, also due to concerns
about drug price reform.  

But, you know, we think Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is one of the most
financially strong businesses in the world and really naturally resilient
business that can manage its way through.  And we think it`s a good
opportunity, this pullback, to add to the position for long-term investors.  

HERERA:  Your next pick is 3M (NYSE:MMM).  Not only is it a global pick,
but you like the dividend.  

BOND:  Yes.  So, 3M (NYSE:MMM), global industrial conglomerate, a wide
range of businesses supported by competitive advantages in terms of
manufacturing expertise and technological developments.  It is a business
that is a bit sensitive to changes in the economy, and we`ve seen the
slowdown in China hit both the business and the shares so far this year.  

We think for the long-term this is a company with a good dividend.  It has
a good track record of managing through headwinds and we have taken the pullback in the shares as an opportunity to add to our position in the
fund.  

GRIFFETH:  And your third pick is Omnicom, the global advertising and
marketing firm.  When you think about it, social media, advertising is the
life blood of many of those companies, right?  

BOND:  Yes.  So, you know, Omnicom, global media, an advertising firm,
really supported by a long-standing reputation for creative excellence.  
And we have seen increasing competition enter Omnicom`s business that`s resulted in some uncertainty about top-line growth, but we think the
company has been doing a very good job of executing through these
headwinds.  

They`re taken share from traditional competitors.  They manage
profitability very well and things like social media are a good growth
driver for a company like Omnicom.  So, again, we think again a high
quality stock trading at an attractive price.  

GRIFFETH:  There you are.  Allen Bond with Jensen Quality Growth Fund, good to see you again.  Thank you for joining us tonight.

BOND:  Thank you.  

HERERA:  Coming up, the high-tech way a pair of entrepreneurs hopes to help you streamline your commute.

(MUSIC)

HERERA:  Reducing travel times, particularly for rail and bus users, could
be a $60 billion global economic bonus each year.  But what`s the best way
to do that?  Well, one way, empower riders with the information they need
to get where they`re going more efficiently.  And that`s why a pair of
Washington, D.C. entrepreneurs got the bright idea to make your mobility
their business.  

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA:  In 2008 and 2009, Matt Caywood spent many grad school nights in a San Francisco lab researching A.I. and neuroscience, but getting home meant guesswork.  Which of several buses might show up first?  That type of information was not yet widely available.

MATT CAYWOOD, TRANSITSCREEN CO-FOUNDER AND CEO:  When they first produced real-time live information, I realized that that could, you know, solve my problem.  I would never have to wait in the fog again.  But the problem was there wasn`t a single place to get it all.

HERERA:  In his free time, Caywood began developing a platform to get it
all — buses, rail, car services like Uber and Lyft, bikes and scooters,
too.  In 2013, he was working in Washington, D.C. when he took a prototype
to a mentoring group for entrepreneurs, and that`s where he met Ryan Croft, a tour company owner whose travels had taken him to 50 countries and 100 cities.

RYAN CROFT, TRANSITSCREEN CO-FOUNDER AND COO:  They all had poor traffic.  Information is king.  If you give people information at the time that they need it, they can make an informed decision.

HERERA:  They began bootstrapping a business, TransitScreen.  

CAYWOOD:  If I press this, will it give me a location?  

HERERA:  Along the way, the former U.S. president took notice at a startup
incubator, and in 2015, TransitScreen went live, sharing information at
first from San Francisco and the D.C. area.  

CROFT:  We`re driving them customers and giving them a better experience.  In return, they don`t charge us and we don`t charge them.

HERERA:  Now, TransitScreen digests more than 2,000 fees from 60 cities
around the world 24 hours a day.  

CROFT:  How often are these trains coming?  Are there a lot of Ubers and
bike shares and scooters nearby in the proximity of the building?  

CAYWOOD:  If it is coming in four minutes, maybe I walk straight there.  If
it is longer, maybe I`ll decide I want to stop and grab a coffee.  

HERERA:  Who pays for their service?  

TRISTON FRAY, OCULUS REALTY:  Everybody seems to use them.  

HERERA:  Real estate developers and leasing agents like Triston Fray.  Of
course, because it is all about location, location, location.  
TransitScreen won`t say exactly what they charge, only that it is usually a
few hundred dollars a month per screen, and they`re in roughly 1,500
buildings across the country.  

FRAY:  It is definitely a major selling point as I am taking people to look
at the building.  They`re always like, oh, wow, that`s super, super useful.  

HERERA:  Now, there`s an app for that called City Motion, and this year a
new revenue stream.  Many big companies provide employee shuttle services and some are paying to help their employees choose a route that`s right for them.

CAYWOOD:  It is an amenity for employees, but it is actually a necessity
for companies.  

CROFT:  We just kept hearing the story over and over again, about the pain
of turnover.  

CAYWOOD:  We are right on top of a metro station ourselves here.  Why?  
Because we want to be close to our employees.  

HERERA:  Lots of those big companies are multinationals, so TransitScreen
already on track to bring in between $4 million and $8 million in sales in
2019, is planning to expand into 14 European cities beginning later this
year.  

For Caywood and Croft, time really is money.  

CROFT:  It is a very scalable business and it is an endless ocean of
companies out there, and we`re just now sort of in the first inning or two
of this long game.  

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA:  And as transportation becomes more data-driven, TransitScreen is also working on the open mobility data initiative, aiming to get transit
systems on the same page when it comes to data formats so their information can get to the rest of us more smoothly.

GRIFFETH:  Truly a bright idea.  

HERERA:  Uh-huh.  

GRIFFETH:  Before we go, a final look at the day on Wall Street.  The Dow
lost just 98 points.  It was down much more than that earlier.  Nasdaq
dropped by 107.  The S&P was off by 21.  

And yes, it was the worst week of the year for the Nasdaq and the S&P as
the month of August gets under way.  

That is the NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight.  I`m Bill Griffeth.  
Thanks for watching.  

HERERA:  It`s a good thing it`s Friday.  

GRIFFETH:  Yes.  

HERERA:  I`m Sue Herera.  Have a great weekend and we will see you right
back here on Monday.  

END

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