ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Sue Herera and Bill Griffeth.
BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Order canceled. Boeing (NYSE:BA) loses a big buy for its MAX 737 aircraft, as the carrier decides to go with an all-Airbus fleet.
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Budget battle. The debt ceiling could be breached sooner than thought. Putting increased pressure on lawmakers to reach a deal or default on our nation`s debt.
GRIFFETH: Retirement in America. Meet the man who created the 401(k) decades ago and today is still working on getting more Americans to save.
Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Monday, July the 8th.
HERERA: Good evening, everyone. And welcome.
Wall Street got back to work after the holiday-shortened week but it wasn`t the type of Monday that many had hoped for. Stocks fell, weighed down by two prominent blue chip companies, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Boeing (NYSE:BA). Investors also spent the trading session trying to figure out what the central bank will likely do following the strong jobs report that we told you about on Friday. We`ll have more on that in just a moment.
But first, the closing numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 115 points to 26,806, the Nasdaq was down 63, and the S&P 500 slid 14.
GRIFFETH: Let`s start with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). It was the worst performing Dow stock today after analysts at Rosenblatt Securities downgraded shares to a sell. They cited the weakening demand for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)`s flagship iPhone especially in China and also the potential for slower service revenue growth. As a result, they are calling what they called fundamental what they called fundamental deterioration in the stock over the next 6 to 12 months. And shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) finished 2 percent lower in today`s session.
HERERA: And now to Boeing (NYSE:BA) which over the weekend received its first major cancelation for the 737 MAX airplane. It came from a low-cost airline in the Middle East. That sent the stock down more than 1 percent and it renews focus on the backlog of orders for Boeing (NYSE:BA)`s most popular plane.
Phil LeBeau has the details.
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: With the 737 MAX unlikely to fly until later this year, airlines are reassessing their plans. Flyadeal, a low-cost carrier out of Saudi Arabia, has scrapped plans to fly the MAX, a reversal from last December when Flyadeal committed to buying 50 MAX airplanes. Instead, it now plans to buy the Airbus A-320.
Overall, Boeing (NYSE:BA) still has a robust backlog of roughly 4,400 737 MAX orders, but no firm commitments for the plane since it was grounded in March and 68 cancelations this year. Pressure is mounting for Boeing (NYSE:BA) CEO Dennis Muilenburg. At the Paris Air Show, he landed a big commitment from the parent of British Airways for 200 MAX airplanes.
Meanwhile, the number of max models built but not yet delivered continues to grow as Boeing (NYSE:BA) continues to crank out 42 MAX planes a month, down from 52 earlier this year.
For now, it`s not orders but production and deliveries driving sentiment on shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA). As long as the company`s 737 MAX production schedule remains unchanged, many analysts believe shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA) are unlikely to move much lower.
Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.
GRIFFETH: Let`s turn now to Sheila Kahyaoglu, she`s with the — talk about Boeing (NYSE:BA). She`s aerospace and defense analyst at Jefferies.
Sheila, thanks for joining us tonight.
SHEILA KAHYAOGLU, JEFFERIES AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ANALYST: Sure. Thanks for having me.
GRIFFETH: And you don`t think this whole mess with the 737 MAX grounding will have a lasting impact on Boeing (NYSE:BA) long term, why?
KAHYAOGLU: We don`t think this is a long-term impact. Clearly, Flyadeal was a setback ultimately, it is. But we point to four things. First, this is the first cancelation, in fact, and it was a commitment of an order. So it wasn`t a firm order, in fact, and it`s only 1 percent of that 4,400 backlog.
So, longer term, we don`t think this is a big impact. This is a startup carrier that started operations in 2017 that needed aircraft immediately. And to the last point, Phil mentioned this was an order in December. They already had a fleet of Airbus A-320s, about a dozen of them. Somewhat surprising that they went with the MAXes and looked for 30 of them. So, overall, this is not long-term impact but clearly a setback.
HERERA: You also pointed out the fact one of the reasons you still like Boeing (NYSE:BA) is the fact that although airbus may have a dominance in the international markets, the wide body sector really Boeing (NYSE:BA) has the advantage in that area.
KAHYAOGLU: Yes. So I think the 787 has done extremely well when you look at its carrier base. I think it`s 71 different carriers. It`s had several repeat customers. I think 40 of them have been repeat.
So it`s really taking a market share position versus the Airbus A-350 and the 330. And the 777X, we`ll see how that does as that enters production next year. But, you know, I think the wide body front Boeing (NYSE:BA) has won. The narrow body front, obviously this has given Airbus a bit of an advantage.
GRIFFETH: But what kind of impact short term is this going have on their earnings? Has to have some material impact, doesn`t it?
KAHYAOGLU: Sure. So, we cut our free cash flow estimates. We cut them about 75 percent, to about $6 billion from $15 billion at the start of the year. Part of that is they`re not delivering these MAXes. They`re building up the inventory, the 42 a month they`re producing. They`re not receiving payments for ones they would have shipped.
And also, we think about some compensation to the airlines as a matter of, like, lease payments that we`re factoring into our estimates. But what we`re looking for is to keep as much of 2020 intact as possible and 2021. What we did last week was downgraded Spirit which is a big suppler to Boeing (NYSE:BA). Fifty percent of its revenues are to Boeing (NYSE:BA), and that they built a fuselage for the MAX.
KAHYAOGLU: We thought they would have a short-term impact. Not long term.
GRIFFETH: Sheila Kahyaoglu — got it. Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies — again, thanks for joining us tonight.
KAHYAOGLU: Thank you. Thanks.
HERERA: And investors are also obsessing over the Fed. As we reported Friday, the strong job report raised questions about whether the central bank policymakers will lower interest rates when they meet later this month. And investors may get new clues when the Fed chief testifies on Capitol Hill later this week.
Steve Liesman has more.
STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In two days of testimony this week before Congress, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has a tough choice, he can affirm the market`s deeply seated belief in a rate cut coming at the Fed`s meeting later this month or he can push back. In pushing back, Powell faces the risk of a short market selloff and more criticism from a president who has raised the prospect of firing Powell if he doesn`t cut rates.
Powell has reasons to side with both the president and the markets.
ALICIA LEVINE, BNY MELLON: The signaling has been all about inflation not meeting target, heightened risks from overseas slowing growth, and trade uncertainty which still has the opportunity to hit the real economy here in the U.S. and we see the G20 as simply being neutral, slightly positive in that tariffs were not put on, but the trade war is alive and well and that uncertainty is alive and well while current tariffs remain.
LIESMAN: Despite the strong jobs report Friday, markets still have two rate cuts priced in. Fed funds futures still see the rates falling from about 2.4 percent now to 1.9 percent, maybe as soon as September. And markets are split over whether there`s even the chance of a third cut this year.
It`s anything but textbook monetary policy for the fed to cut rates at a near record low unemployment amid the longest post-war era expansion.
So, what will Powell do?
QUINCY KROSBY, PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL: I don`t think he`s going to come out and be very specific because after all, the fed meeting is at the end of the month. But the fact is, his assessment of the economy, if it changes at all, any of the words that he really just used at the previous press conference just a few weeks ago, if anything changes, the market will be paying very close attention to whether it`s an upgrade or a downgrade or the same.
LIESMAN: The trouble for the Fed chair, if he doesn`t tell the market it`s wrong about expecting rate cuts, the market will assume that it`s right.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Steve Liesman.
GRIFFETH: Oil prices pushed higher today as tensions with Iran reignited concerns over supply. Iranian officials revealed that they had, in fact, breached the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal by stepping up the country`s enrichment of uranium. As you recall, President Trump pulled the U.S. out of that agreement a year ago.
And today, Vice President Pence said Washington would continue to pressure Tehran with sanctions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Let me be clear: Iran should not confuse American restraint with a lack of American resolve. We hope for the best, but the United States of America and our military are prepared to protect our interest.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: The price of domestic crude settles slightly higher in today`s session.
HERERA: So what could rising geopolitical tensions with Iran potentially mean for the markets?
Katie Bays joins us now to discuss that. She is the co-founder of the research firm, Sandhill Strategies.
Katie, welcome. Nice to have you here.
KATIE BAYS, SANDHILL STRATEGIES CO-FOUNDER: Hi, thank you. It`s so nice to be here. Thank you.
HERERA: We have seen a lot of push and pull in the oil market based on the headline risk out of Iran, but how much of this saber-rattling between the two countries do you think is priced into equities?
BAYS: It`s an excellent question, and the commodity market has certainly been volatile, so you would expect that the equity markets are looking at the commodities and wondering what to do with that. I think that`s very true. The folks that we talked to in the investment community are looking at this geopolitical dynamic and kind of thinking, OK, let`s just let this play out. Hope it doesn`t get any worse.
I just don`t think that there is a lot of geopolitical risk priced into oil and gas producer equities at this point.
GRIFFETH: But as far as oil goes, we keep mentioning the — how the U.S. production that`s increased in the last five years has changed the equation. One analyst said the other day, we quoted her as saying that she felt U.S. oil would be at $100 a barrel right now if it were not for U.S. production.
What do you think?
BAYS: Oh, I think that`s very, very well put and just spot on. The term that I always come back to is that ever since we discovered this shale oil phenomenon in the United States, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market is just gone. That Middle Eastern dynamic is no longer what drives the day-to-day moves in the commodity price. It`s really about what do you think the U.S. shale producers are going to do next?
HERERA: So what is an investor to do with all of this? I mean, on a daily basis we`re getting statements from the U.S. and Iran and Iran and the U.S. if you an individual investor with a longer term time horizon, what do you do?
BAYS: Right. Well, it`s a great question. So, I mean, I think at the end of the day, folks have to recognize that there are still — most oil production are still done by national oil companies or majors that are working with national oil companies, there is a lot of geopolitical risks in the market, and there`s these pockets of value in the United States that are worth pursuing that, to the extent that folks are weary about, you know, the sort of lower for longer phenomenon driven by shale. It`s good to maybe take a step back and recognize the world needs oil as growth continues, there`s going to be continued demand for energy and geopolitical issues are largely sidelined right now.
But as you`ve seen between the U.S. and Tehran, those issues can come surging back into the forefront at any moment.
HERERA: Katie Bays with Sandhill Strategies — Katie, thank you.
BAYS: Thank you.
GRIFFETH: Time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and Downgrades”.
Verizon (NYSE:VZ) was downgraded today to neutral from buy at Citi with the analysts citing rising risks to industry pricing and profit margins over the long term. Price target there is now $62 and that stock fell a fraction to $57.89.
American Airlines was downgraded to underperform to neutral at Credit Suisse. The analysts cited labor issues and grounding of 737 MAX jets. Price target: $30. But despite that downgrade, the stock did rise 1 percent or more to $32.79.
HERERA: State Street (NYSE:STT) was downgraded to underweight from overweight at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). The analyst cites the potential revenue impact of a Fed interest rate cut. The price target is $55. The shares fell 3 percent to $55.06.
Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at J.P. Morgan. The analyst cites more stable fundamentals. The price target is $35. The shares fell slightly to $41.69.
GRIFFETH: Still ahead, the U.S. could breach its debt limit sooner than originally thought unless Congress acts.
HERERA: In the news today, California is bracing for more aftershocks from a pair of earthquakes that hit last week. The state is also starting to tally the cost of repairing things like damaged roads, buildings, and pipelines. The USGS gave a preliminary estimate of the financial toll, pegging it at about $1 billion. The governor said the cost to repair the damage will likely exceed $100 million.
GRIFFETH: Deutsche Bank is laying off 18,000 employees and in the process, the lender is embarking on a dramatic overhaul to return the company to profitability. Germany`s biggest bank plans to shrink its investment banking operations and exit its equity, sales, and trading businesses all together. It`s going to create a bad bank for about $80 billion of risky business assets. Recent restructuring attempts have not worked but this time around, the CFO is confident this new round will be its last.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES VON MOLTKE, DEUTSCHE BANK CFO: We are reorienting the bank away from the more volatile businesses towards very stable, very predictable businesses. And as investors see both that and our execution against these, our targets, we believe there`s a significant rerating of the company that`s available.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: Stock fell about 6 percent in today`s trading but is down more than 75 percent in the past five years as this company continues to struggle after the financial crisis of a decade ago.
HERERA: In Washington, new analysis shows that raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour would give millions of Americans a raise. But it would also put some out of work. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that 17 million Americans would see an increase in wages, while 1.3 million would lose their jobs.
A House Democrat has introduced a bill that would gradually raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by the year 2024.
GRIFFETH: Also in Washington, lawmakers are returning to Capitol Hill from the Fourth of July holiday with a big to-do list. And the item investors are most concerned with is the budget and raising the debt ceiling because if it`s not lifted the country will not be able to pay its bills.
Ylan Mui is in Washington for us tonight.
YLAN MUI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The pressure is mounting for Washington to reach a deal and avoid fiscal calamity this fall. The bipartisan policy center now says there`s a significant risk that the nation reaches its borrowing limit in early September instead of its previous estimate of October.
BILL HOAGLAND, BIPARTISAN POLICY CENTER: Have huge financial consequences both in the markets as well as globally. The fact that the federal government, the United States federal government, could not honor its debt would be something that would be significant long term.
MUI: The new deadline could change the political calculus on Capitol Hill as well. Lawmakers have been negotiating a broader comprise that not only raises the debt ceiling but also funds the government and increases the statutory caps on federal spending.
Just a few weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin went to Capitol Hill and laid out the White House`s bottom line. Raise the debt limit for one year and keep the government funded at current levels during that time. But that strategy is facing resistance from Republicans. Georgia Senator David Purdue is leading the coalition of 15 GOP senators including Jim Inhofe, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Marsha Blackburn, who`s close to President Trump.
They`re calling for a two-year budget deal instead of a continuing resolution in order to increase funding for the military.
SEN. DAVID PERDUE (R-GA): CRs have a direct and immediate impact across the entire Department of Defense, from training to readiness to maintenance to personnel and, yes, to contracting.
MUI: In a recent letter, they warned the administration not to handcuff their militaries with funding gimmicks. The good news is the White House and Congress agree on the need for action. The bad news is they`re running out of time to do anything.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Ylan Mui in Washington.
HERERA: Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Dish might be considering making a fourth wireless carrier. That`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus.”
“The New York Post” says a director at Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)`s parent, Alphabet, is in discussions with Dish about possibly creating a mobile service helped by assets acquired from T-Mobile. T-Mobile and Sprint are looking to shed assets in order to satisfy regulators for their own $26 billion merger. But Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) said the report was, quote, simply false. Alphabet shares were down nearly 1.5 percent to $1,116.79. Dish was off a fraction to $39.84.
Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) has reportedly inched closer in an all-cash deal with Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC). Bloomberg says the chip maker has got financing from several banks for the proposed accusation, which could be valued at more than $22 billion. Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) rose nearly 2.5 percent to $2,561. Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) fell almost 3 percent to $274.96.
Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) chief financial officer Jorge Gomez will be stepping down from his post next month. Though the company`s filing with the SEC, Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) says the leave is, quote, not related to any financial performance, end quote. Gomez will be taking the chief finance role at dental products company, Dentsply Sirona. Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) fell more than 1.5 percent to $47.49.
GRIFFETH: Business analytic software company MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) said the two of its seven-member executive team who used to oversee worldwide sales and services have resigned. The company`s chief financial officer will assume their duties and the company will look for a new CFO. But shares fell more than 10 percent today to $125.93.
Sangamo Therapeutics released very promising updated data today from its study of a drug designed to treat hemophilia A. A pair of patients reported no bleeding over a 24-week period. While two additional patients experienced similar results. Sangamo shares initially soared by more than 10 percent on the news. They closed up more than 1 percent at $11.52.
HERERA: Coming up, the man who created the 401(k) to help Americans save for retirement has a new idea. You`ll meet him, next.
HERERA: And here`s a look at what to watch for tomorrow.
Pepsi reports earnings and second-quarter results begin to trickle in. As we mentioned, Boeing (NYSE:BA) will release its orders and deliveries for June, amid the ongoing grounding of its 737 MAX plane. And we`ll find out if small business owners remain upbeat with the release of a monthly sentiment survey.
And that`s what to watch for on Tuesday.
GRIFFETH: WeWork plans to raise billions of dollars by issuing new debt ahead of its expected IPO. The office space manager reportedly wants to raise money in order to fund its growth before it can be turning a profit. WeWork lost nearly $2 billion last year. In fact, it`s often been compared to Uber and Lyft as a promising company that has failed to turn a profit. According to “The Wall Street Journal,” the new debt facility could help increase confidence in the company and improve demand for that IPO.
HERERA: And now to the state of retirement in America. Nearly one-quarter of Americans say they never plan to retire, and another quarter say that they will work beyond their 65th birthday. According to a new survey, the main reason is money. The latest U.S. government data show about one in five people aged 65 or older are working or searching for a job.
GRIFFETH: And, of course, many Americans use 401(k) plans to help save for that hoped for retirement. Well, the man known as the father of the 401(k) has watched them grow in popularity over the past 40 years and now he has a new mission, to increase access to them. I spoke with Ted Benna earlier today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: Ted, I know that one of your pet projects is finding ways to make 401(k)-type plans available even to small businesses that are not — that don`t have access right now. The House a couple of months ago passed this bill called the secure act which among other things pools, would pool, small business money together to make it more cost effective to create retirement plans for these small businesses.
Does that work for you?
TED BENNA, “FATHER OF 401(K)”: That would be helpful for segment of the market, definitely. You know, those where 401(k) makes sense to have them and that ideally would probably be 20 to maybe 100-employee market. You know, that opportunity of setting up these multi-employer arrangements can generate some operational efficiencies and hopefully, you know, help drive down costs in that market.
But when you get down underneath, you know, particularly, I`d say, 15 employees and less, whatever, 401(k) doesn`t work. You know, it`s too complex.
GRIFFETH: What about these state plans that Oregon, for example, has pioneered, what, 11 other states or 10 other states are now making it available to companies through the state, does that work or does that eliminate some of those complexities you were talking about?
BENNA: It`s a big help.
BENNA: And Oregon did a great job in terms of creating a pretty well- designed program. Now, in addition, they`ve done something, in my opinion, that`s even more important. That is, mandate it. The employers have to have a plan.
You know, Oregon, it`s no longer a choice, and, you know, that`s what is going to be needed. You know, we`re 40 years now into 401(k) being around and still many works don`t have the opportunity.
GRIFFETH: If there are criticisms of the 401(k), a couple things come to mind. It`s too easy to withdraw money. To — you can borrow from yourself. That`s number one.
Number two, advice to the employee who has to make the decision of where to put that money. It was taken off of the shoulders of the employer, for maybe legal reasons.
What do you think about those?
BENNA: Well, it`s become too expensive because of, you know, all these different layers of folks who are involved with it. You know, it`s got a lot more complicated investment wise. You know, than what it originally was.
You know, those things concern me. It`s being — it`s one of the reasons I`ve worked on — and then take an example, if I can. You know, I start two years ago, working on these new designs for small employers. And at a point where I had three of them already worked out, I was approached by a local small employer that has a 401(k).
And this kind of shows the problem. You know, they ask if I could help out. I looked at it, you know, they were able to move to one of the models that I`ve worked on that are IRA-based, eliminate over $1,500 in employer fees. Cost went from 2.75 percent to 0.15 percent.
I mean, you know, I mean, there`s no reason in I mean, there`s no reason in that type of 401(k) and participants to be paying those kind of fees. It doesn`t make any sense.
GRIFFETH: So it`s been 40 years since the 401(k) was introduced there. Has it achieved what you wanted to do? I mean, statistics show that Americans still aren`t saving enough for retirement right now. And it`s in many cases too easy to withdraw money out of the 401(k) plan.
And people are pretty much left to their own devices to make investment decisions when maybe they aren`t savvy enough to be able to do that.
Is the 401(k) what you hoped it would be today?
BENNA: It is in a sense that, you know, it`s helped accumulate probably somewhere around $15 trillion in retirement savings, which certainly, you know, is a big deal. Imagine where we would be without that.
But what has happened is it`s gotten much more complicated, you know, more difficult for participants to make investment decisions and expenses, you know, have just skyrocketed particularly in the small employer market. You know, that part I`m not at all happy about.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: And you can see our full interview with Ted Benna, you can go to our Website at NBR.com.
HERERA: Great to hear from him.
GRIFFETH: Nice man.
HERERA: That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.
GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great evening. See you tomorrow.
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