ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Bill Griffeth and Sue Herera.
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Stocks bounce back. The market rally was strong and it was broad. Even as the trade deal between the U.S. and China remains elusive.
BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: To cut or not to cut. That is the question many are asking the Fed, but the answer is murky.
HERERA: One-two punch. The trade war could raise the price of smartphone just at a time when the industry is grappling with slowing sales.
Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Tuesday, May 14th.
GRIFFETH: And we do bid you a good evening, everybody, and welcome. On Wall Street, it`s called Turnaround Tuesday. Stocks rebounded today after yesterday`s rout, regaining a portion of the sharp loss as we saw it on Monday`s session. The reason is a familiar one, trade.
The president today signaled that the U.S. and China could strike a deal when the time is right. That seemed to alleviate some of the concern among investors, for now, at least and it sent stocks higher today. The Dow gained about 207 points, closed at 25,532 and the Nasdaq was up 87 and the S&P added 22.
Bob Pisani has more on this bounce back from the New York Stock Exchange.
BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The markets managed to stage an impressive comeback today although it`s not enough to make up for Monday`s steep losses. President Donald Trump breathed new life back in the stock after saying that talks with China have not collapsed. The dialogue has been positive and he`s expecting a successful outcome in about three or four weeks as negotiations continue. Well, it doesn`t seem like a lot for the markets to go on, but we did see a number of heavily oversold groups bounce back today, the semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and KLA Tencor, the big industrials, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Deere and energy names and some of the large cap Chinese tech companies like Alibaba and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) all bounce back.
Crude oil prices also handed the rally, jumping more than 1 percent, settling over $64 a barrel as Saudi Arabia`s energy minister reported a drone attack at oil pumps stations near Riyadh. The attacks were described as acts of terrorism.
But don`t be fooled. There`s been a lot of damage done by these trade wars and the big industrials did rebound. But names like Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), 3M (NYSE:MMM) and even Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), there`s still 20 percent or even more off of the recent 52-week high. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is not far from its lows that it hit back in December.
Retailers are still getting hammered on its exposure to China. It`s not Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) necessarily. More than 30 percent of apparel, 70 percent of footwear in the U.S. is imported from China, and companies that have private brands in particular tend to rely heavily on these Chinese imports. That`s why you see companies that have private brands, Gap (NYSE:GPS), American Eagle and Lbrands, they`re all down 10 percent so far this month.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.
HERERA: So with the pickup in volatility, what should the individual investor be doing when they see this kind of behavior in the stock market? We are joined tonight by JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at T.D. Ameritrade and get his perspective on this.
Always good to have you with us, JJ.
JJ KINAHAN, TD AMERITRADE CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST: Thank you.
HERERA: You say take a longer term view and go back to the basics that actually move this market, right?
KINAHAN: Absolutely, and I think one of the first things, you know, investors so often, sue, have a price in mind, but they don`t actually have a timeframe in mind, and the longer your timeframe, the more you can say that this is interesting noise, but noise and actually things like this, no matter what type of investor or trader you are, they have something for you.
For someone who is more short term, there`s a lot of intraday movement you certainly can take advantage of it. If you`re somebody who is — who has a longer timeframe, you can use this as a buying opportunity, if you want or really as you said, it`s back to basics, and we`re — we`re ending earnings season right now as we have the retailers coming out, but truly, longer term earnings are what`s going to move stocks.
So, look at the earnings of your company that you`re buying and more importantly, what are the future prospects for them. Now, trade is something you may have to consider in your future prospects.
KINAHAN: But it`s not the only thing you should be focusing on. And the last thing you have to add to everybody, is if you`re uncomfortable with your position and you`re thinking of dumping the whole thing, maybe think about a partial, get yourself to where you`re comfortable, and you can make a more rational decision.
GRIFFETH: Yes, earnings matter and that`s what investors should focus on.
But what about the impact of tariffs on those earnings especially if the tariffs are going to be with us for a while. We`re going to start hearing, I would think from the industries most impacted by those tariffs and they`ll have to ratchet down expectations, don`t you think?
KINAHAN: I absolutely agree with you, Bill, and I think if you look at the action of the last few days what it really was a repricing of equities based on expectations. If you look at some of the other indicators that your viewers look at particularly bonds and fixed income, goals that to a lesser extent volatility index, those three didn`t have crazy moves. So, it wasn`t like people are panicking. It`s more like a repricing of stocks that`s going on right now.
Bob did a great — you know, hit it at the top of the show, talking about the Fed. If you look at the Apples, the 3Ms, those that are going to be theoretically most impacted by this, they have repriced those stocks. So, what I would say is over the next few weeks, you`re going to see a lot of volatility. Everybody is trying to figure this out.
We`re not used to seeing the sausage being made, if you will, and the negotiations taking place right in front of us and so because of that, every piece of the negotiation is adding some volatility.
HERERA: It certainly is.
JJ, thank you so much. JJ Kinahan —
KINAHAN: Always a pleasure. Thank you.
HERERA: — with TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD).
GRIFFETH: And the implementation of tariffs and the threat of even more has Federal Reserve officials trying to figure out what the impact will be on our economy. And as Steve Liesman reports now, the answer is not clear cut.
STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Will the Federal
Reserve cut interest rates to help prop up the economy if the trade war
weakens growth? Not so fast. The trouble is the Fed isn`t sure how tariffs will affect the economy. So, it doesn`t really know how to respond.
GREGORY DACO, OXFORD ECONOMICS: In general, the tariffs are inflationary but on a transitory basis. They typically tend to raise prices. We think the latest round of tariffs will probably add a couple tenths to inflation. I think on the backside, you do tend to see some deflationary effects from lower growth.
LIESMAN: So, the Fed has to figure out, will higher prices from tariffs filter into the economy and raise inflation requiring higher interest rates or the weaker growth possibly created by the tariffs bring down inflation requiring a rate cut. The Fed`s answer, we don`t know, and we`re just going to have to wait to find out.
The president, however, doesn`t want the Fed to wait at all. He said in a tweet today China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates as always? In order to make up for the business they are and will be losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a match, it would be game over, we win.
And traders who bet on the Fed funds rate think they know the answer, too. The January contract is priced to an 87 percent probability that the Fed cuts rates by then. But that looks to be way ahead of where Fed officials are right now. Kansa City Fed President Esther George today said, quote, over the medium term, I see the biggest risk coming from trade policy, uncertainty and slower growth. Right now, the data are noisy and we need more time and evidence to judge whether the risks materialize.
There`s good reason for the Fed to be confused. The U.S. economy hasn`t faced this level of trade barriers since the 1930s. So, the only true answer for the Fed, no one knows how tariffs will affect the economy, but it appears we`re going to find out.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Steve Liesman.
HERERA: There has been a renaissance along the Gulf Coast, driven by the production of liquefied natural gas. But the trade war with China may be slowing demand in a key market.
Our Ylan Mui has the story.
YLAN MUI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The United States is the biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world. Most of it is shipped out from terminals in Louisiana and Texas. That`s driving an investment boom along the Gulf Coast.
President Trump toured a new $10 billion export terminal in Cameron Parish
today, a backdrop for touting job growth and America`s energy dominance.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You are not only making a nation wealthier, but you are making America safer by building the future of American energy independence. We are independent. We don`t need anybody.
MUI: But the timing is a little awkward, coming just one day after China jacked up tariffs on U.S. LNG from 10 percent to 25 percent. The latest salvo in what is now a full-fledged trade war.
TRUMP: And we don`t need to be ripped off by the rest of the world either because those days are over.
MUI: China is one of the most important markets for LNG. It buys about 10
percent of U.S. LNG exports and demand there is growing faster than anywhere else in the world. But analysts say the tariffs are already slowing down U.S. shipments and we counted 26 vessels that left the U.S. for China last year, 17 of them left in the first half of the year and only nine tankers left in the second half. In the first two months of this year, only two vessels were bound for China.
The higher tariff rate will take effect in June, but the consequences could be felt long after that. Three LNG terminals are under construction in Louisiana right now, four additional projects have been approved and several more are waiting for a green light from regulators. An estimated $50 billion in investment is at stake.
PIERRE CONNER, TULANE ENERGY INSTITUTE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: The momentum is probably strong to continue the projects, but the risk is that those that have any sort of stop points or the ability to push it out could wait to see some of the volatility or concern about the tariffs subside.
MUI: The industry`s biggest concern is that the trade war derails that second wave of investment.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Ylan Mui in Washington.
HERERA: It is time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and Downgrades”.
Coke was downgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). The analyst says the company`s growth prospects are not reflected in the current valuation. The price target is $55. The stock rose more than 1 percent to $48.69.
Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse. The analyst cites the potential for higher chicken, beef, and pork prices. The price target is $96. The stock rose 2.5 percent to $81.57.
GRIFFETH: Capital One was upgraded to buy to hold from Jefferies with the analyst expecting that stock to benefit from improving efficiencies. The price target now $115. The stock gained about 2 percent today to $89.26. And Valero was upgraded overweight to neutral at J.P. Morgan. The analyst expects the stock to outperform the rest of the refining sector. The price target $105 and the stock rose 3 percent to $82.96.
HERERA: Still ahead, the biggest challenge facing Main Street small business owners.
GRIFFETH: Boeing (NYSE:BA) reported a drop in deliveries in April. The company handed over 24 percent fewer planes in the first four months of the year when compared to 2018. The reported decline, though, was not surprising. The grounding of its popular 737 MAX aircraft halted deliveries for a second month.
HERERA: Much like Boeing (NYSE:BA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) finds itself caught in the middle of the trade war with China. Tariffs are increasing cost for the company and a new report estimates just how big those costs could grow.
Jon Fortt has the details.
JON FORTT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Up until now, the risk was for Apple`s actual sales in China where the trade battle was taking a toll on consumer appetite for high-priced iPhone. But now, there`s a new danger. President Trump is threaten to impose a $25 percent tariff on an additional $325,000 worth of goods coming into China, including iPhones, iPads, Macs and the bulk of Apple`s hardware. That`s effectively a tax Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) would have to pay.
Now, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) would have to raise the price of an iPhone by 14 percent to pass along that cost to customers. That would be an additional $164 and change for $1,099 iPhone XS Max, for example.
So, will Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) hike iPhone prices if new tariffs go through?
Well, maybe not across the board. Remember, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shifts iPhone pricing every fall with a new announcement, and can adjust prices for different storage options of different screen types. So, it could hide a price hike somewhat. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) could also absorb it. If Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) chooses that route, JPM estimates that new tariffs would cut Apple`s earnings per share by 14 percent in the worst-case scenario.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jon Fortt.
GRIFFETH: So how are these tariffs likely to impact the iPhone market going forward?
Joining us tonight, Ian Sherr, executive editor at CNET. Ian, good to see you again. Welcome back.
IAN SHERR, CNET EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Hi. How are you doing?
GRIFFETH: If you are Tim Cook, what are you going to do? I mean, he`s lowered prices for iPhones in China because of lower demand over there. Now that tariffs are going up, prices — are they going to have to go up or will they have to eat that increase? What do you think?
SHERR: You know, it`s unclear. I think it`s going to be interesting to see how Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) tries to — I mean, we`re talking about a lot of money that comes from a 25 percent increase in the tariff. At some point, some of that has to be passed on to consumers in theory. But it`s going to be really interesting to see how Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) navigates this. I imagine if the prices do go up, we`re going to hear a lot of belly aching from Silicon Valley in conference calls after quarterly earnings and whatnot, before they ever show us a price tag.
HERERA: What about the fact that people seem to be hanging on to their phones a little bit longer either because they`re waiting for the newest upgrade or because the smartphones are pretty good right now anyway and they don`t necessarily, you know, need an upgrade.
You couple that with tariffs and it really might have a big dent on the bottom line for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
SHERR: Yes. I mean, I think the larger things going on here are definitely that the smartphone market is slowing down growth. I believe, 2018, according to some analysts, was the first year so far when we actually saw a decline in sales and it`s something that is definitely in the — in the overall issue that they are facing. You know, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) generally has been able to suck up most of the profits in the smartphone industry. So, if anyone is particularly protected about that, it would be Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). I think about all the other companies who struggle to even clear a profit, they`re going to be really fuelling it from this.
GRIFFETH: Are you surprised the magnitude of the increase and the tariffs and the impact it`s going to have on Silicon Valley. I mean, you know, there has been tension between Washington and Silicon Valley anyway. Is there something else going on other than just trying to punish the Chinese in this regard with these tariffs, do you think?
SHERR: Without question, adding a tariff to technology which is one of the largest economic drivers in California and throughout the country, it`s certainly saying something, right? But there`s also the larger thing which is that the battles between silicon valley and Washington, D.C., have mostly been philosophical. They`ve been about stuff like the supposed censorship of conservative voices and all of those types of other thing, right? How Russian interference came out, Cambridge Analytica, and all of these thing that have gone on between Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Twitter and Washington, D.C.
When this comes to technology devices, these are not philosophical ideas. These are things that people are buying at Christmas and putting into trees. And that raises a whole different conversation, right? That`s consumers through the country certainly having to pay more for devices they want and I`m really curious to see whether anyone is going to weather that storm.
GRIFFETH: Ian, always good to see you. Ian Sherr with CNET, joining us again tonight — thanks.
SHERR: Thank you.
HERERA: Disney (NYSE:DIS) gains control of Hulu and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.
Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) have struck a deal where Disney (NYSE:DIS) is taking full operational control over the streaming service. Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) will license content to Hulu until 2024, but as soon as next year, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) will also be able to put some of that content on its own streaming service. Within five years, Disney (NYSE:DIS) will buy Comcast`s stake in Hulu for at least $5.8 billion. Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) shares were both up about 1.5 percent today. Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS) is the parent of NBC Universal (NYSE:UVV) which produces this program.
Ralph Lauren profit topped Wall Street estimates, but the retailer saw a decline in North American sales. The company behind Polo and Chaps also hiked its quarterly dividend 10 percent. Shares today slid nearly 4 percent to $113.95.
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) could be subject to up to two decades of oversight as part of an agreement with the U.S. government. “Reuters” says the deal would resolve an investigation into whether the social media company inappropriately shared information and data of 87 million users back in 2011. The settlement could be a month away. Today, the stock was down a fraction to $180.73.
GRIFFETH: The court hearing for the $69 billion merger between CVS (NYSE:CVS) and Aetna (NYSE:AET) now has a start date. That would be June 3rd. The merger, as you know, closed in November, but it still does need court approval. CVS (NYSE:CVS) fell about 1-1/2 percent today to $52.97. And after the bell, cannabis company Tilray said that revenue nearly tripled while its quarterly loss widened. The revenue increase was driven in part by the legalization in Canada for adult use, but costs for the company increased as Tilray ramped up investments and acquired a hemp-based food maker. The stock rose in initial after-hours trading tonight. It finished the regular session, up 4 percent to $48.74.
HERERA: Small business owners are more up beat about their economic prospects. The survey from the National Federation of the Independent Business climbed to a four-month high. But one of the biggest challenges for small business owners remains the tight labor market and the inability to find qualified workers.
Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG) has more.
KATE ROGERS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Adam Rammel is gearing up for an expansion. The owner of the Brewfontaine, a craft beer barn in Bellefontaine, Ohio, hopes to nearly double his current staff of 25 workers come December when he opens a new catering business, a tall order in a historically tight labor market.
ADAM RAMMEL, BREWFONTAINE OWNER: We`re very manufacturing-driven in our neck of the woods here, and as our manufacturers are growing and increasing their wages, it`s making our job even harder to recruit and retain new and talented staff.
ROGERS: While workers are paid above minimum wage, Rammel knows that`s not enough. Offering full healthcare benefits isn`t feasible, but he`s considering alternative programs in the health and wellness space, even looking at a housing incentive to bring new workers to the area to work at his restaurant group.
RAMMEL: We`re trying to get out ahead of this.
ROGERS: Other small business owners like Kristin Ledgerwood are searching for a particular skill set, also a challenge with a limited supply of workers. The owner of Vivian`s Gourmet outside of Denver, Colorado, said she`d be able to increase her sales if she could find an additional two workers.
KRISTIN LEDGERWOOD, VIVIAN`S GOURMET OWNER: One of the challenges that we have is the fact that we`re such a specialized business, that we do a lot of custom cakes and specialty baking. We have a hard time finding folks that have the skills necessary to just jump in and do the job.
ROGERS: For the past 16 months, the quality of available labor has ranked the single most important issue for small businesses, according to data from the National Federation of Independent Business. And what`s more, the group recently found the businesses are lowering requirements for both skilled and unskilled positions as workers are increasingly hard to come by.
And because the talent is hard to find, others like Michael Canty are focused on retention. Canty owns Alloy Bellows Precision and Welding in northeast Ohio. He says manufacturing competition in the area is fierce and he does his best to hang on to the workers that he has.
MICHAEL CANTY, ALLOY BELLOWS OWNER: Much of our equipment is specialized and we`ve custom-developed it for our own needs and if we`ve trained on that. And if we lost someone who learned those skills, we then must start all over with someone who replaces them.
ROGERS: A major challenge in one of the tightest labor markets on record. For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG).
GRIFFETH: We have a passing to tell you about from the world of finance and economics. Alice Rivlin, a true pioneer on budget policy in Washington has died. She was the first woman to serve as White House budget director and she was the founding director of the Congressional Budget Office. Ms. Rivlin, as you may remember, also spent three years as vice chair of the Federal Reserve, the second most powerful position at the central bank. Alice Rivlin was 88 years old.
GRIFFETH: Walmart is rolling out one-day delivery, taking aim at rival Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The retailer will begin offering the service in Phoenix and Las Vegas with plans to reach 75 percent of the U.S. by the end of this year. Just last month, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) said it was making free next day shipping standard for prime members and it`s investing $800 million this quarter in its shipping business.
HERERA: Infrastructure is the backbone of the American economy, allowing goods, services and people to get to where they need to get to go, which is why during this Infrastructure Week, we`re taking a look at nation`s roads and bridges and the pressing need for a more modern system. Frank Holland is in Columbus tonight.
FRANK HOLLAND, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Our roads getting a “D” in the most recent report card of America`s infrastructure. The primary reasons, congestion and structural deficiencies.
BRIAN PALLASCH, ASCE INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE: Our transportation network, I think, is slowing in some ways our economy, and making it less
HOLLAND: The estimated (AUDIO GAP) 2025, more than their $2.3 trillion in business sales lost. More than $3.2 trillion in lost GDP, and more than one million lost jobs.
PALLASCH: It becomes the inability of the economy to grow at the rate at which it should grow.
HOLLAND: The nation`s bridges getting a C-plus from the American Society of Civil Engineers and its failure to act report. That study also estimating there will be a funding gap of more than $1 trillion by 2025, half the money needed to fix our roads and bridges, and taxpayers will likely pay for problems one way or another.
PALLASCH: The motorists on average in this country spend on average $600 a year in additional maintenance on their cars just because of the poor road conditions.
HOLLAND: Driverless cars are expected in coming years. Here outside of Columbus, Ohio, on U.S. 33, they are preparing, by aligning the roadway with fiber optics like this and building a 35-mile Wi-Fi highway that can connect with the cars of the future.
At the end of the U.S. 33 is the Transportation Research Center where connected and autonomous vehicle technology is being tested to make it safer. The state also investing in smart light like these designed to send and receive data from vehicles.
VOICE: Warning, red light ahead.
JIM BARNA, DRIVE OHIO EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Ultimately, our goal is to eliminate the serious crashes at these intersections. Twenty percent of all our fatals in Ohio occur at these intersections. So, this technology has the ability to eliminate them. Not reduce but ultimately eliminate them once all the vehicles and the signals are outfitted with the technology.
HOLLAND: Nationally, fatal crashes have increased by 7 percent over the past five years.
PALLASCH: The cost of the economy of those fatalities and crashes is billions and billions of dollars, and that`s something we also can address through improving our infrastructure.
HOLLAND: The cost for families, even greater.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Frank Holland in Columbus, Ohio.
GRIFFETH: Finally tonight, the world`s most valuable brand, the latest annual ranking from advertising giant WPP (NASDAQ:WPPGY) puts Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in the top spot. In fact, its brand value has more than doubled in the past year to $316 billion, thanks to its expansion into entertainment and smart home devices.
China`s Alibaba is number two with a value of about $130 billion, and like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), it`s connecting with consumers outside of retailing. McDonald`s rounds out the top three.
HERERA: And before we go, here`s a look at the final day`s numbers on Wall Street. The Dow advanced 207 points to 25,532. The Nasdaq was up 87, the S&P 500 added 22.
And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.
GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great evening. We`ll see you tomorrow.
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