ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Sue Herera and Bill
BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Land of confusion.
President Trump said the deal with China is possible, but so are new
tariffs and that resulted in a volatile session for stocks.
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Geopolitical rumblings from Iran, to Venezuela to North Korea. The number of hot spots on Wall Street`s radar is growing.
GRIFFETH: Taking off. If you plan on flying somewhere this summer, get
ready to open your wallet even wider.
Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for this
Thursday, May the 9th.
HERERA: Good evening, everyone, and welcome.
Investors spent the day trying to figure out whether there will be a trade
deal with China. Negotiations between the two countries are at a critical
juncture with new tariffs on Chinese goods said to go into effect at
immediate night. President Trump earlier today indicated that maybe there won`t be a deal and stocks fell sharply. And then there were signals that something might happen and stocks pared their losses.
When all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 138
points to 25,828, but it had been down more than 400 points. The Nasdaq
slid 32 and the S&P 500 was down eight.
Bob Pisani explains why the market was moving on every trade headline.
BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Stocks went on another roller coaster ride. Today with the Dow tumbling about 450 points at session lows before rebounding well off the lows.
The clock`s ticking on a trade deal as the 11th hour approaches, the
markets initially tanked on fears that trade rhetoric was ramping up on
both sides after President Donald Trump said China broke the trade deal
they had in place at a rally last night. But the S&P rebounded quickly
when Trump said he had received a beautiful letter, those are his words,
from Chinese President Xi Jinping and semis and industrials which initially
tumbled on trade fears all bounced back on those comments, but semis were still weighed down by weakness in Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Caterpillar`s bounce was fairly modest at best.
Here`s the bottom line: the street is having a very tough time gaming the
outcome of all these trade talks, and the hope is that at this point, if
there is no trade deal, at least tariffs will not increase while
negotiations continue. We`ve been saying all week that a complete
breakdown in trade talks with new tariffs in place for months would cause
major problems for the markets and that could easily drop the S&P into the
$2,600 range. It turns out, UBS agrees with that and the report out
yesterday, UBS had a complete breakdown in trade talks could result in U.S.
stocks dropping 10 percent to 15 percent. That`s exactly the 2,600 area
with China stocks dropping even more down 15 percent to 20 percent.
For the moment, the market is acting like the most likely outcome might not be an all-out trade war and not a clear trade deal, it`s the middle ground. No trade deal but no increase in tariffs if negotiations continue. We`ll see if that`s the outcome.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.
GRIFFETH: And the Chinese trade delegation is in Washington tonight for
the resumption of those negotiations. The early word out of Beijing was
that they plan to play hard ball, but President Trump wasn`t tipping his
hand about the U.S. strategy.
Kayla Tausche reports.
KAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Talks with China re-opened tonight after the dispute that the language had become public and vitriolic. President Trump is leaving his options open, praising Chinese leadership, but scolding them for backing off their commitments.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I have no idea what`s going to happen. I did get last night a very beautiful letter from President Xi, let`s work together. Let`s see if we can get something done, but they re- negotiated the deal.
TAUSCHE: Trump is moving to squeeze China even further, hiking tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent, effective at
12:01 a.m. and threatening the rest of China`s imports, too.
TRUMP: It will be $325 billion at 25 percent and we`re starting that
TAUSCHE: Trade isn`t the only area the Trump administration is ramping up pressure. The Federal Communications Commission today denied China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) a license to do business in the U.S. and is looking at revoking licenses already granted to other Chinese-owned carriers.
AJIT PAI, FCC CHAIRMAN: The security of our next generation networks
cannot be an afterthought. It has to be a top-level priority now.
TAUSCHE: As talks continue, tensions simmer. This round could prove to be a breakthrough or a breakup of the world`s two biggest economic powers battling over trade.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche in Washington.
HERERA: So what happens to the markets if we do get a trade deal with
China and what happens if we don`t?
Joining us to discuss this is Art Hogan, chief market strategist with
Welcome back, Art. Good to see you.
ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, NATIONAL SECURITIES: Thanks, Sue. Good to see you.
HERERA: What are your expectations? And what do you think the market
reaction will be if, indeed, you are correct?
HOGAN: I think there`s three scenarios. I think one is the worst-case
scenario, and that`s when we get nothing done and walk away, stop
negotiating, escalate to the max on all $563 billion, 25 percent and they
retaliate with whatever they can throw at it, I think the market really
suffers in that case, but I think more so the global economy suffers.
I think the best case scenario is we find out over the weekend we`ve got a
beautiful deal. I don`t think either one of those can happen, but
somewhere in the middle where we actually say, hey, conversations are
continuing to be constructive, we`re going to wait two weeks before we
increase tariffs and hopefully, you know, iron out the things that are the
bumps in the road this week. That`s our best case, we hope that happens,
but, you know, any one of those three things can happen.
GRIFFETH: You know, Art, most of the viewers of this program are long term investors. How should they view what`s going on right now?
HOGAN: I think they should look at their plans and say I`ve got a good
plan in place. This is probably exactly what I should be doing, sticking
to my plan.
Now, there is a case where you say this kind of volatility makes me nervous
that keeps me up at night and then perhaps I should change my plan, instead of having 70 percent, I should have 60 percent. But stick to your plan. Don`t let news like this or any of the other things that become that sort of disaster of the week alter you from your long-term plans.
HERERA: If indeed, they are uncomfortable with their exposure to equities, where would they recommend they reallocate?
HOGAN: Well, I think the most defensive thing right now in my mind is
raising some cash, having a higher allocation of cash. I only say that,
Sue, because I think a lot of the defensive areas that we run to like
utilities and staples and things like that type companies are getting
expensive and I don`t think — you know, they`re trading at high multiples
and not throwing off very high yields. So, I`d rather say, you know, OK,
for the time being, I`m going to spend until the end of this year with
instead of having 10 percent cash, having 15 percent cash. I think that`s
as defensive as anything right now.
GRIFFETH: We may be getting ahead of ourselves here, but let`s assume that the tariffs do go into place not only for the Chinese imports but China
retaliates with some of their own. That`s inflationary.
How does the Fed respond to that, do you think?
HOGAN: Yes, and that`s — Bill, that`s the great question because it`s a
wrong kind of inflation. There`s no economic benefit for those prices
going up. Those are fixed prices, not driven by supply and demand.
The Fed is going to have to take a step back and say, how do we react to
this, and see how much of that breeds through. Sometimes that leads to
higher input cost, but a lot of times what really happens when you fix
costs, it drags down economic activity. So, in both situations, the Fed`s
in a pickle because they like to stimulate economic activity but, you know,
they might start staring down the barrel of hire than expected inflation.
It puts everybody in difficult situations. It`s the wrong kind of
HERERA: Yes, it sure is.
OK. Art, thank you so much.
HOGAN: Thanks, guys.
HERERA: Art Hogan with National Securities.
GRIFFETH: Now, we`ve been talking a lot this week about the various
sectors that could be adversely affected by a rise in tariffs. But here is
an unexpected industry that`s feeling the heat, bicycle makers.
Ylan Mui is in Manning, South Carolina, for us tonight.
YLAN MUI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Roughly 1,000 bikes a day roll off the assembly lines here as Bicycle Corporation of America. Workers spray the aluminum frames with special powdery paint, lace up spokes with the rubber wheels, and attach the pedals and handle bars — all of those pieces, most of them come from China.
TREVOR HEDER, INDUSTRIAL DESIGNER: For everything, from the handle bars, the fork, frame, pedals, basically 100 percent of the components that
you`re seeing right now are all from China.
MUI: These bikes got hit with 10 percent tariffs when the trade war
between President Trump and China started last year. On Friday, that
number could go up to 25 percent.
Arnold Kamler, CEO of parent company Kent International, said it would be a direct blow to his bottom line.
ARNOLD KAMLER, CEO, KENT INTERNATIONAL: We`ve had no choice, but to pass these costs on to our customers and then the customers had to pass it on to consumers.
MUI: You`ve got a lot of boxes here.
HEDER: Yes. We have a surplus of inventory.
MUI: The factory has been stockpiling parts in case the tariffs go up.
But already, they`ve cost the company about $16 million and that translates to money out of your wallet. A bike that used to sell for $150 at a
retailer like Walmart now goes on $170.
KAMLER: We`re an American company. We don`t know how it would be
perceived that China is paying for this. We`re paying for it.
MUI: The factory has also hit the brakes on plans to expand. Kamler wants
the White House to know that`s at least 70 new jobs here in South Carolina
that will simply vanish.
KAMLER: We believe in American production. We believe in the American
worker. We believe in the technology, but please be patient, stop the
threats and please work and negotiate with China.
MUI: At this factory, American jobs are riding on a deal.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Ylan Mui in Manning, South Carolina.
HERERA: Oil prices decline today on those heightened trade tensions
between the world`s two largest economies. The concern is that an all-out
trade war could dent global demand for oil. Today, domestic crude settled
above $61 a barrel.
GRIFFETH: Now the global markets have understandably been focusing on
these U.S.-China trade talks lately, but there are other geopolitical hot
spots that could have a big financial impact as well. We`re talking about
issues involving North Korea, Iran, Venezuela.
Joining us right now to talk about that, Chris Konstantinos. He`s chief
investment strategist with Riverfront Investment Group.
Chris, good to see you again. Welcome back.
CHRIS KONSTANTINO, RIVERFRONT INVESTMENT GROUP: Likewise. Thank you.
GRIFFETH: And just today, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was talking about Iran and the threats that have been coming out of that country. Are you as concerned about the potential hot spots or are we just talking about some saber-rattling right now?
KONSTANTINOS: Well, look, from a humanitarian perspective, obviously
places like Iran and Venezuela, these are tremendously terrible
humanitarian crises. However, from the global market perspective, from the perspective of all of us trying to figure out what`s going to happen to
stock markets in the future, really, the only way these countries matter is
through a transmission mechanism and the price of oil.
And the issue for these countries is that or any OPEC country, actually, is
that OPEC`s ability to drive pricing and drive supply and demand has
diminished in recent years because of western technology gains. So, I view
places like Venezuela and Iran as being increasingly irrelevant to stock
markets going forward. And generally speaking, stock markets tend to look
through these types of geopolitical affairs except in the very, very near-
term impact on it like a valuation multiple.
HERERA: But what about North Korea? News that they have fired short-range missiles and this evening say that they intend to continue to do that?
Certainly, that could — I mean, China is going to have a reaction to that,
the U.S. has already made some statements on it.
Does that threaten to derail these talks, the trade talks at this point or
KONSTANTINOS: That`s a really interesting question. I believe that
neither China nor the U.S. want any more complexity in these talks than
what already exists and the advent of North Korea acting up again, I think
is an unwanted complexity for both sides.
I think if you take a step back, this is very much in keeping with North
Korean behavior. Yes, we haven`t had a missile launch in about 500 days,
but this is pretty much straight out of the North Korean playbook. It, to
me, looks like North Korean saber-rattling. They`re probably a little bit
upset that the talks in Hanoi a few months back didn`t yield any results
and the U.S. administration walked away. So, this is just, I think, them
saying, hey, remember us? We`re still out there.
But I`d like to think that the U.S. and China are focused on the trade deal
right now because I think that`s of utmost importance to both country`s
GRIFFETH: And we will see what happens tonight and over the weekend.
Chris Konstantinos with Riverfront Investment Group, again, thanks for
joining us tonight.
KONSTANTINOS: My pleasure.
HERERA: Some new reports tonight on the U.S. economy. We start with
inflation which the Fed has been focused on, of course. Producer prices
rose modestly in April, up 0.2 percent, which was in line with
expectations. Economists say inflation pressures at the factory level
appear to be picking up. A separate report on the job market shows the
number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell 2,000, a sign
that the labor market remains robust.
GRIFFETH: Time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and
We begin with Dow component Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). The rating on that one was cut from market perform to outperform at BMO Capital Markets. The analyst there cited competition from Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) or AMD, which has been gaining market share lately. The price target on Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) now $50. That stock fell 5 percent to $46.62.
Ralph Lauren was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital. The analyst cited the prospects for gross margin improvement. The price target: $145. That stock rose 1 percent to $125.68.
HERERA: And also at RBC Capital, shares of American Eagle were downgraded to sector perform from outperform. The analyst said growth prospects for its Aeries brand are priced into that stock. And the price target is now $24. The stock fell 2 percent to $22.45.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) was downgraded to underperform from neutral over at Wedbush. The analyst cites concerns that promotions may be increasing. The price target is $23. The stock fell 2-1/2 percent to
GRIFFETH: Still ahead, Uber is expected to start trading at the New York
Stock Exchange tomorrow. Tonight, we look at its hefty losses and how it
burns through billions.
GRIFFETH: Facebook`s co-founder is calling for a breakup of the company.
In a “New York Times (NYSE:NYT)” op-ed piece this morning, Chris Hughes
wrote that CEO Mark Zuckerberg has, what he called, unchecked power and influence far beyond anyone in the private sector or in government. He wrote that it was time for regulators to step in.
And today, Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal said he agrees.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-CT): I think that Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) needs to be broken up. The acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp need to be unwound. And there needs to be Department of Justice scrutiny about
appropriate antitrust remedies. And let`s remember, being big is not
illegal. It`s the misuse of that bigness.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: Zuckerberg today rejected calls for breakup and according to the company, he`s meeting with government leaders this week.
By the way, Chris Hughes has not worked for Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in more than a decade. He says he liquidated his holdings seven years ago. That stock fell a fraction in today`s session.
HERERA: Uber has priced its initial public offering at $45 per share.
That was at the lower end of its target range. Shares are expected to
start trading on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow. One of the big
concerns for investors is trying to figure out when Uber will turn a
profit, but for now, we know how Uber loses money and a lot of it.
Deirdre Bosa explains.
DEIRDRE BOSA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Uber is a classic, two-sided marketplace. It connects drivers to riders through its app. For each ride, a portion goes to the driver and the rest goes to Uber. But since its inception, Uber`s costs have far outweighed the revenue it brings in.
There`s taxes, payment fees, insurance, driver and rider incentives and
other operating costs. In 2018, Uber actually lost $1.8 billion. And the
two years prior, it burned through nearly $5 billion. Uber is also pouring
money into expansion across the globe, though it sold its rush a Southeast
Asia and China businesses to cut costs in regions where they faced intense,
local competition. And it`s investing in moonshot projects like e-bikes
and scooters, self-driving cars, trucking, even flying taxis.
Ultimately, Uber wants a piece of every passenger and public transportation globally, what it calls a $5.7 trillion market opportunity.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Deirdre Bosa.
GRIFFETH: Kate Spade gives Tapestry investors a much-needed shot in the
arm and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.
Tapestry did beat Wall Street estimates as it sold more Coach (NYSE:COH)
and Kate Spade handbags. The handbag and accessories maker also authorized a $1 billion buyback which may be a move to calm investors concerns after a weak holiday quarter. And it did that today. Shares were up nearly 9 percent to $33.36.
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is walking away from its bid to buy Anadarko, leaving
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) as the winning bidder. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will now collect a $1 billion break-up fee and increase its buyback program by 25 percent to $5 billion. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) shares rose about 3 percent today to $121.19, while both Occidental and Anadarko stocks were down.
Norwegian Cruise Lines said today that strong, global demand and record
booking helped that company post better-than-expected results. Norwegian also raised its quarterly and full-year guidance. And the stock today was up a fraction to $57.59.
HERERA: Keurig Dr. Pepper reported better than expected earnings, but
revenue came in just short of estimates. The beverage maker did re-affirm
its full year targets. Today, the stock was down nearly 3 percent to
Hain Celestial, the maker of Celestial Seasonings Tea and Terra Chips,
reported a quarterly loss that was narrower than Wall Street was expecting. The company is also selling its poultry business as it focuses on its core, profitable brands. It`s the second unit sale this week for Hain. Shares were down nearly 3-1/2 percent to $22.92.
Stamps.com (NASDAQ:STMP) slashed its full-year earnings and revenue
forecast and sees further declines in 2020 and 2021. The reason: uncertain
contract changes that its partners have with the U.S. Postal Service. Last
quarter, stamps.com said it was ending its partnership with the Postal
Service. Today, the stock lost half of its value, closing at $36.90.
After the bell, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) beat analyst earnings
expectations but missed their revenue target. The casino company saw a
decrease in revenue from its Macao operations. And that pressured the
stock in the initial afterhours trading. It finished the regular session
up just a fraction to $136.33.
GRIFFETH: Now to the nation`s opioid drug epidemic. A new report today
offered some hope in the fight to curb abuse.
Meg Tirrell has more.
MEG TIRRELL, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The numbers on the opioid epidemic are staggering. Over two decades, almost 400,000 people died in the United States from the overdose of the drug.
But new data today from health researcher IQVIA showed progress in at least one area. The volume of prescribed opioid painkillers last year declined by a record 17 percent to the equivalent of about 34 pills per American adult.
The data showed opioid prescriptions peaked in 2011 at about 72 pills per
adult. The decline was largely driven by fewer high-dose prescriptions
which are associated with a greater risk of addiction and overdose.
MURRAY AITKEN, IQVIA INSTITUTE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: There is a much greater level of awareness of some of the risks of prescribing opioids and there have been restrictions put in place really across the board to try to reduce particularly the use of the high dose prescription.
TIRRELL: The study also shows an uptick in medication assisted treatment
for opioid addiction, something researchers say is key for making a dent in
the epidemic. But progress is uneven across states.
AITKEN: We found that certainly in the New England states, there`s very
high use of medication-assisted therapies, Maine and Vermont, in
particular, are really using those medication-assisted therapies.
TIRRELL: As the epidemic has evolved, more opioid overdose deaths have
been driven by use of illicit drugs like fentanyl. But public health
officials say curbing use of prescription opioids is still an important
DR. SCOTT GOTTLIEB, FORMER FDA COMISSIONER: If you look at the rates of new addiction. So, historically, the people who became newly addicted to
opioids became addicted through a lawful prescription, a lot of the new
addiction was from medical prescribing. More and more of the new addiction are people whose first exposure is going to be an illicit drug. So, the nature of the crisis is evolving.
TIRRELL: And while the news today is encouraging, researchers say it`s
important to view it in context of the ongoing epidemic.
INMA HERNANDEZ, PH.D., UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH SCHOOL OF PHARMACY: We are better than a few years ago, still, there`s a long way to go, we`ve had much higher use than in other countries. We still have very high overdose rates. So, these — we shouldn`t take these as everything you said. Maybe the worst years of the epidemic are over.
TIRRELL: As Health Secretary Alex Azar put it recently, the country is far
from the end of the epidemic, but it`s perhaps at the end of the beginning.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Meg Tirrell.
HERERA: Coming up, are you planning a summer getaway? Well, it may cost you.
HERERA: Here`s some unwelcome news just as millions of Americans start
planning their summer vacations. For the first time since late last year,
domestic airfares in the U.S. are going up.
Phil LeBeau takes a look at how much more you`ll have to pay to fly this
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: If you`re booking a trip in the U.S. this summer, get ready to pay more. Airlines have raised fares $5 each way on most flights in the U.S. the first industry-wide fare hike of the year.
HAYLEY BERG, HOPPER ECONOMIST: We`ve seen prices increasing since April, and we expect them to continue increasing until about mid-June, end of June, and then they`ll slowly fall back down until the early fall.
LEBEAU: With the typical domestic round-trip ticket going for just under
$230, the average airfare today is still far lower than a few years ago,
partially because ultra low-cost airlines like Spirit have added more
routes and flights. So, traditional airlines have responded by offering
more low-priced, bake economy fares. And overall, the industry has
steadily added more flights, and that is holding down fares.
The big question is what impact, if any, will be felt by American, united
and southwest parking more than 70 Boeing (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX airplanes,
forcing them to adjust their schedules.
BERG: So what we`re seeing them do is shift capacity to their highest
demand routes and cut back or cancel routes in the short term that are
LEBEAU: Which means airfares on high demand routes like L.A. to New York may not go up much, but on a route like Pittsburgh to L.A., flights may be trimmed because there`s not as much demand, so fares there could go up.
Overall, airfares remain relatively low, but passengers are finding they`re
paying more for certain parts of their trip like checking bags. In the
last year, many airlines have raised the cost of checking a bag from $25 to
Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.
GRIFFETH: And finally tonight, we all make mistakes. Some are just more
public than others. That`s what happened in Australia where the country`s central bank put into circulation 46 million new $50 notes. One catch, the word responsibility was misspelled three times on each note. Needless to say, it sparked some reaction down under.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KATHRYN HARRIS, CURRENCY COLLECTOR: It`s a huge mistake, and I mean an absolute huge mistake. It`s not rare because they`ve minted them all with these mistakes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can say it could be very irresponsibility.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it`s sad that people can`t spell properly
anymore. Don`t they have anyone checking it?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s still worth 50 bucks. That`s all that matters.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: Well, the Reserve Bank of Australia says the spelling will be
corrected at the next print run later this year.
It could be a collectible, I guess.
HERERA: I was just going to say, it could be a collectible.
Before we go, here`s a look at the final numbers from Wall Street. The Dow fell 138 points. It had been down more than 400. The Nasdaq slid 32, and the S&P 500 was down eight.
And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.
GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Remember, there`s no A in responsibility.
Have a great evening. We`ll see you tomorrow.
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