Transcript: Nightly Business Report – May 7, 2019

ANNOUNCER:  This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Sue Herera and Bill  Griffeth.

BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  Stocks are pummeled as  trade tensions escalate.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Investors understand what`s going to happen here, it`s  very difficult.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  The markets obviously repricing the trade tensions  between China and the United States. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  The Dow off by 418 points.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  It is a 2 percent day, let`s call it across the board.  

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE:  All 30 Dow stocks are in the red right now.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  We just hit a fresh session lows, 642 points, on the  Dow.  

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE:  The Dow closing lower at 472 points.  Worst day for  the Nasdaq and the S&P since March 22nd.  Worst day for the Dow since back  in January.  

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR:  Tonight, what might happen  next, and what it could mean for your money.

It`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Tuesday, May 7th.  
Good evening, everyone, and welcome.  

Uncertainty has gripped the stock market — uncertainty over tariffs, the  risk of an all-out trade war with China and the potential impact on global  growth.  Stocks dropped at the opening bell and they kept drifting lower  until the close.  The selloff was broad.  All 11 S&P sectors were down, all  30 Dow stocks finished in the red.  

Here are the closing numbers.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 473  points to close below 26,000.  The Nasdaq slid 159 and the S&P 500 was down  48.  

Bob Pisani has more on today`s deep declines.  

BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  Trade tensions were  once again top of mind for Wall Street today.  Stocks came under pressure  because U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the Chinese were  reneging on key aspects of the trade negotiations.  That`s woken up  investors that the odds of a tariff increase this Friday are much real than  the markets were expecting, even with the vice premier of China coming on  Thursday.  

Still, the market is still off its historic highs because sentiments still  remain positive around four key factors.  

First, the Federal Reserve`s policy pivot.  They don`t expect rates to be  raised by the Fed again at all this year.  A trade deal is getting done,  and they still will happen and that it could happen before the end of June.   Finally, China`s stimulus program which is creating the perception that  China`s economy is bottoming.  We also have a strong U.S. economy.  

So, if we have no trade deal, if one of those four goes away with the  higher tariffs, that might force investors to lower their global growth  estimates, to lower their earnings estimates for 2019 and 2020.  Many are  also starting to worry now about the knock-on effects of the trade war.  

Just look at the consumer staples today.  You have companies like Conagra  and Kraft (NYSE:KFT) Heinz and Molson Coors.  They all sold off.  None of  them have direct revenue exposure in China, so why are they down?  Because  the global growth picture is looking a little bleaker the longer that the  U.S. China trade wars keep up.  

So, the market might gain 100 points at the S&P if there is a trade deal.   But if there is no deal at all with much higher tariffs, well, the markets  could drop another 300 points very quickly.  

My point is the risk is to the downside, not the upside.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.  

GRIFFETH:  Meanwhile in China, officials have been walking a fine line.  As  they try to get a deal done, they are also very aware of how it may be  perceived in Beijing, and that`s where we find Eunice Yoon tonight.

EUNICE YOON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  The Chinese commerce  ministry confirmed today that Vice Premier Lie He will attend the trade  talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday with Trade Representative Robert  Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.  There have been some  concerns that the Chinese vice premier, along with the delegation wouldn`t  show to the trade talks after President Trump`s tariff threat.  

Well, the talks are on, but in a strongly worded commentary, “The People`s  Daily”, the official paper of the communist party, said the U.S. should not  even think about concessions.  The paper reads, when things are unfavorable  to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back.  The hard  line coincides with what the Chinese said repeatedly, that they are willing  to negotiate, but not with a gun to their heads.  

The Chinese want to have a trade deal, but they`re also mindful of the  perception back home.  They want to make sure that Beijing doesn`t appear  as though it`s being cowed by Washington.  So, that doesn`t necessarily  bode well for the resolution this week.  
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon in Beijing.  

HERERA:  Yesterday, we talked about trade tensions and what they could mean  for stocks, bonds and commodities.  

Tonight, we`re taking a look at a sector that potentially could get hit  quite hard by increased tariffs and that is the retail sector.  
Joining us tonight is Charlie O`Shea, vice president and retail analyst  with Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) Investor Service.
Welcome back.  Always great to see you.  


HERERA:  So, you know, we have seen supply disruptions before.  The port of  Los Angeles strike comes to mind.  Given that background, how well- positioned do you think some of the retailers are if, indeed, this trade  war escalates?  

O`SHEA:  I`m going to sound like a broken record, but those guys that are  performing well and the bigger ones, this shouldn`t have an impact at all.   They`ve already been dealing as you said, the port of L.A. strike, the  Hanjin bankruptcy a few years ago, which disrupts its supply chains for  smaller retailers.  So, if you`re a big retailer, one of the advantages you  have obviously is flexibility and money, you`ve adapted your supply chain  to deal with almost any potential outcome like this one.  

HERERA:  So, who are we talking about?  

O`SHEA:  We`re talking Walmart, Costco (NASDAQ:COST), and Target  (NYSE:TGT), you know, any of the big guys, the big investment grade  companies that we cover are really well-insulated from this.  The risk is  at the lower end of the ratings scale where things are already acute for  the smaller, highly leveraged retailers, this is the last thing they need  is some sort of a trade issue.  

HERERA:  Well, let`s slice it another way.  What about, say, apparel or  furniture, you know, the things that you make that are made in China and  brought back again?  What about those sectors?

O`SHEA:  A lot of that stuff has already moved into other markets.  I mean,  we`ve seen Vietnam with furniture.  Just an anecdote, I was in a  restoration hardware store a few weeks ago, a lot of their furniture has  made in Vietnam labels on the back.  So, a lot of the manufacturers been  moving away from China for a variety of reasons, one potentially for  tariffs, but the another one maybe is a lower cost market, they just want  diversity and diversification.  And that`s exactly what they need.  
You cannot put all your eggs in one basket from a supply chain perspective  and succeed anymore.

HERERA:  What about the length, if indeed we don`t get a deal this week,  these trade talks have been going for some time now.  If we do come to that  impasse come Friday and that 25 percent tariff goes in, how — now, the big  retailers may be able to survive that for a while.  

O`SHEA:  Right.  

HERERA:  But this has been a very long process.  How long do they really  have?  

O`SHEA:  It`s a really good question.  The bigger guys can ride this out.   I wouldn`t worry about them.  One of the stories that ran on your network  is potential ripple effects, do consumers have to pay a little bit more,  what other sectors could get hit — that`s an open question.  

But I think the timeframe is really important here.  We`re in the midst of  negotiations and I`m not going to presume to know what`s going on in that  room, but this could be a very short-lived tariff for all we know.  It  could also last for an awfully long time.  But that doesn`t get benefit to  anybody.

So I think that the challenge for the retailers is we can`t overreact to  this.  We can`t all of a sudden say, oh, my gosh, we have to completely  supply our supply chain —  
HERERA:  Right.

O`SHEA:  — and change it.  We just have to kind of deal with it on the  fly, and I think the better retailers are positioned to do that.  

HERERA:  I think we`re going to be seeing a lot of you, Charles.  Thanks  for joining us.

GRIFFETH:  I think so.

O`SHEA:  Thank you.

HERERA:  Charlie O`Shea with Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) Investor Service.  

GRIFFETH:  And agriculture is another important sector of the economy  watching the latest round of talks very closely.  Farmers say that trade  uncertainty is not helping them and some fear that they`re getting caught  in the political crosshairs of Washington.  
Ylan Mui has that tonight.  

YLAN MUI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  It`s planting season on  Greg Mims` farm in southwestern Georgia.  The soybeans and corn are already  in the ground, cotton is a work in progress, the seeds of a harvest that he  hopes can redeem a rough year.  

GREG MIMS, GEORGIA FARMER:  We need a super harvest.  

MUI:  That`s because like farmers like mint have become collateral damage  in political battles happening hundred of miles away in the nation`s  capital.  

First, there is a trade war with China.  Talks have gone tense ahead of a  meeting between top Chinese and U.S. officials here in Washington this  week.  

Farmers fear that means Beijing won`t lift tariffs on American soybeans.   Grain prices tumbled this week to the lowest level in more than four  decades.  

MIMS:  We really need to see some type of trade agreement worked out, all  the depressed prices are not helping us at all.  

MUI:  On top of his trade troubles, Mims has also been waiting for months  for federal disaster relief.  His farm suffered a direct hit from Hurricane  Michael back in October.  His cotton harvest stock blown away, his  equipment shed and farm shop are still in shambles, and there`s been little  help from Uncle Sam.  

Congress is proposing $3 billion in direct aid for farmers, but that money  has gotten caught up in a partisan fight over relief for Puerto Rico.  
SEN. JONI ERNST (R-IA):  I want to say this political football just really  put down, let`s get to that end zone and let`s get through this.  No more  political games here, folks.  We`ve got people back home that need this  package.

MUI:  But down on the farm, Mims doesn`t expect answers any time soon. 

MIMS:  I think you get to the point where you`re thinking, you know, I  don`t think we`re going to see anything out of it.  So, it may be even past  frustration and more — I guess, hopeless.  
MUI:  For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Ylan Mui in Washington.  

HERERA:  Some of today`s market angst may have also come from the vice  chair of the Federal Reserve.  Richard Clarida said that some of the  softness in inflation can be explained by temporary factors.  That`s  exactly what the Fed chief said last week and what the market didn`t seem  to like.  Clarida said he was comfortable with monetary policy as is and  pushed back against speculation that the Fed would cut interest rates to  boost inflation.  

GRIFFETH:  Here`s a bright spot, though.  The number of job openings  increased in March.  According to a new labor market survey there are now  7.5 million job openings and 1.3 million more available jobs than  unemployed people.  Vacancies increased the most in the construction and  transportation industries, as well as in the real estate sector.  

HERERA:  It is time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and  Downgrades”.  
Boeing (NYSE:BA) was downgraded to equal weight to overweight at Barclays.   The analyst expects the recovery of the 737 MAX production to take longer  than expected.  The price target is $367.  The stocks fell more than 3-1/2  percent to $357.23.  

Lululemon was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.  The  analyst cites the company`s new management team and international  profitability.  The price target is $159.  Lululemon fell with the rest of  the market.  It was down 2 percent to $173.98.  

Beyond Meat got its first buy rating.  The stock was initiated with an  outperform rating at Bernstein in new coverage.  The analyst cited the  growth of the alternative meat market to some $40 billion in the next  decade.  The price target is $81.  The stock was up nearly 6 percent to  $79.17.  

GRIFFETH:  Record price tag, a new drug is about to go on sale for $2  million.  If it provides a cure, is it worth it? 

HERERA:  We often talk about the rising price of prescription drugs.  Well,  tonight, a new drug is expected to hit the market soon with the biggest  price tag ever.  
Meg Tirrell has more.  

MEG TIRRELL, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  The debate over the  price of drugs puts mere constant pressure on pharmaceutical stocks, and  it`s about to take on a whole new dimension with a drug expected to be  approved by the FDA this month.  It`s a medicine for a rare and devastating  childhood disease called spinal muscular atrophy, and it could cost as much  as $2 million.  Many on Wall Street argue it`s a price that makes sense.  

MICHAEL YEE, JEFFERIES MANAGING DIRECTOR:  This new gene therapy drug which  could cost $2 million or more is a life-saving therapy.  These babies and  these infants would be essentially nowhere in a year and now, they`re  growing up to possibly be normal children living a normal life.  It`s  pretty impressive.  

TIRRELL:  The drug is made by Swiss pharma giant Novartis, and it`s one of  the new group of medicines that aims to dramatically improve if not cure  disease, with just one treatment.  They`re called gene therapies because  they deliver copies of functional genes to make up for ones that cause  disease.  

There`s one on the market in the U.S. — Spark Therapeutics` Luxturna which  treats a rare form of blindness.  It costs $850,000.  But Jefferies analyst Michael Yee says many more are on the horizon.  

YEE:  I could see five or 10 new gene therapy drugs coming out over the  next five years, and I think we`re going see a lot more.  

TIRRELL:  And though their price tags are large, he says gene therapies  could actually be a bargain, compared with medicines patients have to take  chronically.  

YEE:  The existing therapy could cause tens of million base they have to be  paid and used every year for the rest of your life.  The total sum of those  payments could dwarf the cost of the gene therapy.  So, you could argue,  though, although it`s a one-time payment or a one-time price tag, that  that`s actually cheaper over the life a patient.

TIRRELL:  But as the price of drugs is already under scrutiny, such a hefty  price tag would likely only dial up the debate.  


GRIFFETH:  Let`s turn to Chris Meekins now to talk more about yet another  instance of a high cost of drugs here in the U.S.  He is research analyst  at Raymond James.  
Chris, thanks for joining us tonight.  


GRIFFETH:  You know, an industry — insurance industry analyst said the  other day that if this drug, even if it`s effective, it`s useless if nobody  can afford it.  How do you read this situation?  

MEEKINS:  Yes, I think there`s no question that a drug that sits on the  shelf behind the glass at a pharmacy is of no use to anyone.  And in this  instance where you have fewer than a thousand babies a year that pass away  without this drug, you know, the upside is very encouraging for what we  see.  But there has to be a way to find a good balance.  I think that most  insurers are very likely to cover a drug like this because of the positive  impact that you see.  And I think it`s really difficult to see Novartis  from a political standpoint ever allowing the inability of a parent to pay  to result in the child to die.

So, I think from — whether it`s a PR perspective, and we hope just a good  person perspective, and the company will step in to be that those that need  it most will be able to have access to the drug because they don`t want  Congress or the administration to step in, to try to lower this price and  interfere in the market.  

HERERA:  Chris, what about the point that was made in Meg Tirrell`s report  just moments ago, that, yes, that too — if it comes into $2 million, that  $2 million price tag is eye-popping at first.  But other therapies that are  administered over the life of the patient could end up costing more, it`s  just not the initial sticker shock.  

MEEKINS:  Yes, I think that`s fair.  I think in this instance we know that  the lifespan for 92 percent of the patients` ballpark is 18 months, so it  doesn`t have a lifetime of taking drugs.  This is a life or death product  for these individuals.  And what you`ve seen in D.C. is most politicians  are not looking at the initial cost of the drug even if it`s really high  with the exception of Bernie Sanders who`s critical of that.  For most  politicians and the debate in Washington, it`s really about whether or not  prices are being increased after drugs are already on the market.  

So, what`s the reason for those 6 percent, 7 percent, 10 percent increases  we see every year, not what`s the reason for the initial cost.  In this  instance, it`s curing the disease for less than a thousand kids that die a  year, and that`s a big deal.  

GRIFFETH:  Very quickly.  What about the possibility of importing cheaper  versions from overseas, even the president is talking about that now.  

MEEKINS:  Yes, we saw the president yesterday had an Oval Office meeting  where he said that, you know, we wanted HHS to look at drug importation.   This is a very big deal and I don`t think the market is fully appreciating  is the idea that this administration could allow, at least on an limited  basis, the importation of cheaper drugs from Canada, the U.K. or Europe,  and it`s something that we definitely need to be watching in the weeks and  months ahead.  

GRIFFETH:  Which we will do.   Chris Meekins with Raymond James, again, thanks for joining us tonight. 

MEEKINS:  Thanks.

HERERA:  Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) Investors keep waiting on the company`s  turnaround plan and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.  
The pharmaceutical company reported lower than expected quarterly revenue  and the CEO failed to provide a clear view on the potential revamp of the  company`s strategy which investors were hoping to hear.  Shares lost nearly  a quarter of their value, closing down about 24 percent to $21.53, its  worst day in nearly two decades.

Allergan (NYSE:AGN) beat analysts` expectations on strong sales of Botox  which is still its most profitable product.  The company also raised its  full year guidance.  The positive results come as some investors have  called for the drugmaker CEO and chairman roles to be split or for Allergan  (NYSE:AGN) to sell some assets.  But shares still fell 4 percent to  $141.36.  
Regeneron`s earnings fell short of expectations as results were hurt by a  surge in expenses and the pressure to keep drug costs low.  The company did  cite new treatments in the pipeline as future growth drivers.  Still, the  shares were off 6 percent to $322.40.  

Dean Foods (NYSE:DF) reported weak sales as it continues to struggle with  lower consumer demand.  Prices have fallen as fewer people are drinking  milk and the big operations like Walmart have opened their own dairy  operations.  The nation`s biggest dairy producer also said it is cutting  costs at exploring strategic alternatives.  Investors may have liked that  as they sent the shares higher by nearly 5 percent to $1.76.  

GRIFFETH:  NCR (NYSE:NCR), which makes ATMs, is reportedly exploring its  options, including a possible sale of the company after receiving interest  from unnamed buyer.  Bloomberg said there is no indication of a potential  sale price.  Shares rose 9 percent to $31.08 and touched a 52-week high.  

Then, after the bell, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) beat analyst estimates  helped in part by the launch of its Apex Legends title, a competitor to the  wildly popular game called Fortnite.  EA also gave strong guidance for the  whole year.  Shares initially rose in after-hours trading tonight, but they  did end the regular session down 1 percent to $92.73.

Also after the bell, highly anticipated Lyft released its earnings report,  its first one since coming public about two months ago.  The ride sharing  company reported a huge loss, but it did make strides in growing its active  ridership.  Lyft also issued guidance above expectations for the current  quarter.  The stock which has been struggling since its IPO was volatile in  the after-hours trading session but ended the regular session down 2  percent to $59.34.  

HERERA:  And with rival Uber IPO expected in just a few days, how do the  ride-sharing business models differ?  
Deirdre Bosa compares the two. 

DEIRDRE BOSA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:  It`s focus versus  ambition, pure play versus diversification.  Lyft and Uber are battling  each other for riders, drivers and market share. 

MICHAEL GRAHAM, CANACCORD GENUITY:  It`s very much a land grab here in the  United States where Lyft operates right now.  We think that only 2 percent  of all passenger miles are currently being travelled on these sheer  transportation networks like Lyft and we think that`s going to go a lot  higher.  

BOSA:  But when it comes to the longer term, they look like very different  companies.  Lyft operates only in North America while Uber`s footprint is  global, stretching from North America, to Latin America, Europe, Australia  and the Middle East.  Lyft is focused on ride-sharing.  Uber`s portfolio  spans ride sharing, food delivery, trucking and even flying cars.  
But both have a few important things in common.  One of them: huge losses.  

BRIAN HAMILTON, SAGEWORKS CO-FOUNDER:  They don`t even have fidelity around  the idea of profits and they`re, you know, I don`t want to say I would — I  actually do want to say, they`re sort of arrogant about it, like, hey, we  never have to be profitable.  So, you got to look long run.
But if these guys don`t have any fidelity to basic things like earning  profits 20 years from now, we`ve got a problem.  

BOSA:  And it`s not clear which business model or any will lead either  company to profitability, but both are also making big bets on self-driving  cars which they see as the future of ride-sharing and the way to cut costs.   The question is if and when that technology will be commercially available  and how they deploy it.  


GRIFFETH:  In other news, G.M. Cruise has raised $1.5 billion in new equity  from a group of investors.  The investment increases Cruises`s valuation to  $19 billion.  G.M. Cruise is pushing to launch a robo taxi service sometime  this year.  

HERERA:  Coming up, what to do now?  That`s the question investors are  asking after two days of steep market declines.  A game plan, next.  

GRIFFETH:  Amazon`s futuristic food store called Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Go  has now opened its first New York City location, but unlike earlier  versions of the store where customers simply pick up an item and walk out,  this store will accept cash.  Critics have been saying that cashier-free  stores discriminate against consumers who are unbanked, don`t have access  to credit or debit cards.  Philadelphia responded by becoming the first  city to ban cashless stores earlier this year.  New Jersey followed with a  statewide ban and similar laws are being considered in New York and in San  Francisco.  

HERERA:  After two days of steep declines in the stock market, some of you  may be feeling a little bit nervous about what`s happening, and wondering  what to do next.  

So, Tim Maurer is with us.  He`s here with some advice.  He`s director of  personal finance with BAM Alliance.  
Welcome back, Tim.  Nice to see you.  


HERERA:  It`s great to have you here.  You know, for our discussion, let`s  assume that our investors have a game plan.  How should they react to the  two days of volatility that we`ve seen and maybe more to come?  

MAURER:  Let me say this first.  If you`re invested in the market and you  experience these downturns over the course of the past couple of days, it  is absolutely normal and perhaps even natural to feel a sense of anxiety.   In fact, we learn from the behavior of field economics, there is a name for  this.  It`s called the endowment effect.

And the bottom line is what we lose in the market hits us twice as hard as  the joy we might feel when we gain from market ups.  So, it`s perfectly  normal for us to feel a sense of anxiety, it doesn`t mean we should be  acting on that anxiety, of course.  But it`s perfectly normal.  
HERERA:  But that`s the thing.  It`s one thing to — I mean, nobody likes  to see the balance in their portfolio go down?  But acting on it is the  other thing.  

How do you keep yourself from acting especially if you fear that there`s  more to come on the down side?

MAURER:  Well, step down, Bill, is to acknowledge the anxiety.  So, bring  it to from the subconscious to the conscious.  It`s a good first step,  because then we can move to step two, and that`s a willingness to embrace  volatility. 

The truth is that volatility is the reason we have a justifiable reason to  expect higher rates of return overtime, investing in the markets versus  just investing in a FDIC-insured CD or savings account.  Volatility is a  natural part of the market.  So, when you see that volatility, it`s a good  sign that you should probably have higher expected rates of return longer  term.  
But that brings us to the third and final step.  It`s not that inaction is  the only course here.  If we see enough movement on the upside or the  downside, the perfectly responsible thing to do as an investor is to  rebalance that portfolio like Sue said at the beginning, we`re presuming  that somebody does have a plan, they do have a portfolio that`s designed to  grow out into the future.  And so, if you have that, when you see  meaningful deviations based on market volatility, that`s the natural time  to do the natural market adjustment and buy low and sell high.  

HERERA:  All right.  On that note, Tim, appreciate it.  
One of these days, we`ll have you on when the market`s going up.  You  always help us out.  

MAURER:  It sounds a plan.  Sue, thank you.  

HERERA:  Tim Maurer with BAM Alliance.  

GRIFFETH:  I feel better already.  

HERERA:  There you go.

GRIFFETH:  However, we did have this kind of a day today.  A big sell-off  on trade jitters.  

The Dow was down 473 points.  Now, we are back below 26,000.  The Nasdaq  was down 159.  Technology, of course, one of the hardest hit groups in the  situation involving the trade talks with China and the S&P 500 was down 48  points.  

And, of course, we have the trade talks to begin on Thursday and the  tariffs maybe ticking in on Friday.  

HERERA:  So, that means you have to tune in tomorrow night.  That does it  for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.  I`m Sue Herera.  Thanks for joining us.

GRIFFETH:  I`m Bill Griffeth.  Sleep well tonight.  


GRIFFETH:  We`ll see you tomorrow.  


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