Nightly Business Report – February 15, 2019

ANNOUNCER:  This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Bill Griffeth and Sue

higher, leading the Dow to post its eight-week gain since 2009.  

level trade talks conclude in Beijing, but they will pick up again next
week in Washington.  And there`s a lot at stake for American business.  

HERERA:  Turnaround stories.  Our market monitor has a list of stocks that
are switching strategies and could climb as much as 20 percent in a year.  

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for this
Friday, February 15th.

GRIFFETH:  And we do bid you a good evening, everybody, and welcome.  

It was a TGF kind of day, especially on Wall Street where stocks soared on
continued hopes for a U.S./China trade deal and on no government shutdown.  
The Dow and the Nasdaq have now turned in eight straight weeks of gains.  
In fact, today`s rally helped the tech-centric Nasdaq exit bear market
territory, meaning it is no longer 20 percent below its most recent high.  

And actually, the enthusiasm for stocks was pretty broad based today.  The
energy sector was higher on a rise in oil prices.  Bank shares climbed as
well, just to name two strong sectors.  

By the close, the Dow had gained 443 points to 25,883 now.  The Nasdaq
added 45, the S&P was up 29.  And small caps also saw big gains.  That
group represented by the Russell 2000 is now up 10 percent from its most
recent low.  And for the week, all of the major averages had very good

Dominic Chu witnessed all today at the New York Stock Exchange.


fueled by high hopes for U.S./China trade talks that are now scheduled to
take place again in Washington, D.C., next week.  Both the Dow and the
Nasdaq are riding impressive eight-week winning streaks for the first time
since November of 2017.  Also worth noting that the Dow is now less than 5
percent away from record highs that it hit back on October 3rd.  

Traders continue to talk about this as a headline-driven market so the
optimism is cautious.  Trade sensitive names were all firmly in the green
with Boeing (NYSE:BA) hitting another all-time high during the trading
session.  Bank stocks also getting a boost from news that Warren Buffett`s
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) added to stakes in big names like JPMorgan
(NYSE:JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) during the market downturn last

But one stock sitting out the rally, notably Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).  The lone
Dow component in the red for much of the day.  This comes after the latest
round of filings show Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) trimmed its holdings
by 1 percent or roughly 3 million shares.  

The stock market will be closed on Monday for President`s Day and will
reopen for regular trading on Tuesday.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Dominic Chu at the New York Stock


HERERA:  So, will we see a continuation of this rally when the market does
reopen next week?

Joining us to talk about that is Joe Duran, CEO and founding partner of
United Capital.  

Good to see you again, Joe.  Welcome back.  


HERERA:  We`re good.  

The question is, how good is this market?  You are still bullish?  

DURAN:  Yes.  It`s hard to not feel like it`s doing quite well, you know?  
I think last year, at the end of the year, we had an immense overreaction
to light trading volume.  The sellers overwhelming the market, especially
that week before the Christmas holidays.  And we`ve now recovered all of
that December weakness and the small caps and across the board really.  

We`re also seeing much stronger international market, which is encouraging
as well.


DURAN:  So a lot to feel good about.  The Fed is clearly now a friend again
and not a foe, and it looks like even if we don`t get a resolution with
China, there`s clearly enough momentum to extend the expansion of tariffs
that would have kicked in in a week.  So, there`s very little to be
concerned about.  


DURAN:  Global growth is still a bit of a concern but it looks pretty good
to us.  

GRIFFETH:  Aha.  But global growth is a bit of concern.  Just in the last
week or so, we`ve been hearing anecdotal stories from various companies who
are affected by the global growth story.  I think of Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)
and Pepsi, which both said profits will be very hard to come by this year.  
Hasbro (NYSE:HAS) and Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) guiding lower for this year.  
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) finding a slowdown, especially in China.  

I mean those are just five companies, but they`re very important in the
consumer sector, and they`re talking slowdown right now.  

DURAN:  Yes, they have to, of course, because it is slowing down.  And the
interest rates reflect that.  You know, you see interest rates remarkably
low given the recovery we`ve had and that`s really because Germany has
basically gone through a recession.  I think they`re 0.3 percent away from
calling it a recession.  

China definitely slowed down.  And what you see is the small caps —

GRIFFETH:  Why doesn`t that affect our market then, Joe?  Why won`t that
have an impact on the U.S. stock market then, do you think?  

DURAN:  Well, because what you`re seeing is these low interest rates
eventually create more stimulus around the world.  And the U.S. is
buttressing the slowdown in the rest of the world.  I think what you`re
seeing the stock market reflect is that if China tariffs get resolved, if
the rest of the world can start turning the corner and the U.S. leads it,
small caps are telling you the U.S. is in great shape and not a lot to be
concerned about.  

And again, while it doesn`t mean that it`s not going to be bumpy, there`s a
lot to be relatively optimistic about, especially if the emerging markets
continue to do well.  All it takes really is for the dollar to be stable.  
It was running up last year and that`s stabilized a little as well.  

HERERA:  Joe, thank you.  Joe Duran with United Capital.  

DURAN:  You bet.

GRIFFETH:  Now to the trade talks that have been the focus of investors all
week.  The president today said that he wants a deal that`s good for both
the U.S. and China, and he added that he still plans to meet with China`s
President Xi at some point.  He made those comments after two days of high-
level negotiations in Beijing that wrapped up.  

That`s where we find Eunice Yoon again tonight.  


Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are on their way
back to the United States after their two days of talks here in Beijing.  
The two capped off their visit with a meeting with President Xi Jinping.  

According to state media, President Xi said that the trade negotiations
would continue in Washington next week and the two sides had made important
step-by-step progress.  Secretary Mnuchin had also tweeted out the
conversations here were productive.  The two sides were reportedly focusing
on hammering out a memorandum of understanding that could act as a
framework for a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi as early as next

But before anyone gets too excited, the back chatter is that the two sides
are still at a stalemate.  The Chinese are more focused on narrowing the
trade gap with bigger purchases of American goods, such as chips, but
there`s been little progress in some of the thornier issues such as state

President Xi flagged the challenge himself, saying to the state media that
China is willing to adopt a cooperative approach to resolve and promote an
agreement acceptable to both sides.  However, cooperation requires certain

That line is being interpreted that China has its own bottom line.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eunice Yoon in Beijing.  


HERERA:  The cost of imported goods into the U.S. fell in January for the
third straight month.  The Import Price Index slid 0.5 percent last month,
after even steeper slides in December and November.  Lower oil prices
played a role as did the price of some consumer and industrial goods.  
Economists say that report is more evidence of waning inflation pressures
within the economy.  

GRIFFETH:  Meanwhile, industrial production fell in January for the first
time in eight months.  According to the latest report from the Federal
Reserve, a large part of that decline was the result of a decline in
production of autos and auto parts.  Economists say that that dip suggests
factory activity in the U.S. is starting to cool.  

HERERA:  A partial government shutdown has been averted.  The president
this afternoon signed the spending bill into law that Congress passed
yesterday.  But the president also declared a national emergency at the
border, as a way to secure the funding that he wants for a wall.  

Eamon Javers is at the White House tonight.  


as a result of today`s action, there`s going to be about $8 billion in
spending on a border wall at some point in the future.  

Here`s how the numbers break down.  Starting with yesterday`s spending bill
that was passed in both the House and Senate, that`s $1.37 billion from
congressional appropriations.  The White House is also going to tap into
$600 million from treasury`s drug forfeiture fund, and an additional $2.5
billion from the Department of Defense`s drug interdiction program.  $3.6
billion, that`s the chunk of money that the president has access to as a
result of this national emergency declaration.  That comes from the
Department of Defense`s military construction budget.  

So, the president would like to get this spending going as soon as possible
given that he says there is an emergency at the southern border, but he
also acknowledges there could be legal action ahead.  

as soon as I get into the Oval Office, and we will have a national
emergency and we will then be sued and they will sue us in the Ninth
Circuit, even though it shouldn`t be there, and we will possibly get a bad
ruling, and then we`ll get another bad ruling, and then we`ll end up in the
Supreme Court, and hopefully, we`ll get a fair shake and we`ll win in the
Supreme Court.  

JAVERS:  The president there predicting a long legal battle ahead.  And
Democrats seizing on one of the comments that the president made in the
Rose Garden in which they say he suggested that this isn`t an emergency at

TRUMP:  I could do the wall over a longer period of time.  I didn`t need to
do this.  But I`d rather do it much faster.  And I don`t have to do it for
the election, I`ve already done a lot of wall for the election, 2020.  And
the only reason we`re up here talking about this is because of the
election, because they want to try and win an election which it looks like
they`re not going to be able to do.  

JAVERS:  Democrats arguing that my saying, I didn`t need to do this, the
president is in essence admitting that there`s not really an emergency at
the southern border.  The president making the case, though, this is
absolutely necessary.  The one thing that both sides seem to agree on is
that there will be legal action going forward.  Democrats in a joint
statement today called this an unlawful power grab by a disappointed

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eamon Javers at the White House.  


GRIFFETH:  Time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and
Downgrades”.  In fact, they`re all downgrades tonight.

Dow component Coke was downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi.  The analyst
cited the weak guidance that the company issued this week, and also the
continued currency headwinds they face.  Price target now $50 a share.  
That stock fell a fraction to $45.24.  

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) was cut to neutral from outperform at Credit
Suisse.  The analyst cited increasing competitive threats in both aerospace
and I.T., which hurts the outlook for growth for that company.  The price
target $184.  The stock rose more than 1.5 percent today, though, to

And AIG was cut to hold from buy at Argus Research.  The analyst cited
AIG`s higher than normal catastrophe losses.  The firm also points to
consistent underperformance lately.  Shares rose more than 5 percent,
though, today to $42.32.  

HERERA:  Still ahead, regulators are ramping up pressure on some of the
nation`s biggest tech companies.


GRIFFETH:  Credit rating agency Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) said today that Amazon`s
decision not to build a second headquarters in New York City is a negative
for the city.  Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) says that while New York`s economic
fundamentals do remain strong, other firms seeking government incentives
may no longer now consider the Big Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as a good place to
locate their business.  

HERERA:  Regulators are reportedly close to hitting Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
with a record fine over the way it handles user data.  And this comes as
Silicon Valley more generally faces increased scrutiny from lawmakers over
privacy violations.  

Julia Boorstin takes a closer look.  


Commission and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) are negotiating what would be the
agency`s largest-ever fine in the billions of dollars, this according to
“The Washington Post (NYSE:WPO).”  In March, the FTC began probing Facebook
(NASDAQ:FB) after the Cambridge Analytica scandal which revealed 87 million
users` data was inappropriately shared.  

In focus: Facebook`s 2011 settlement with the FTC on charges that it
deceived consumers, violating its commitment to protect data could draw
fines up to $41,000 per user.  

MARK MAHANEY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS:  This company has well over $40 billion
in cash, so to pay a $3 billion, $4 billion, $5 billion fine I don`t think
would — I don`t think would be an issue for the company fundamentally or
for the stock frankly.  

BOORSTIN:  But this comes as the Government Accountability Office
recommends the passage of a federal Internet privacy law and issued a
report that found that over the last ten years, most of the FTC`s actions
against companies for data privacy abuses did not include fines.  

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) issuing a statement saying it`s cooperating with
officials in the U.S., U.K. and beyond, but this comes amid growing calls
to regulate the tech giants.  

SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D), MINNESOTA:  We need to put some digital rules of
the road into law when it comes to people`s privacy.  

BOORSTIN:  Senator Amy Klobuchar is making regulating data privacy a
centerpiece of her presidential run.  She`s among the 15 Democratic
senators who introduced the Data Privacy Act in November.  Meanwhile in
California, Governor Gavin Newsom this week introducing an unheard of
proposal that could have big implications for tech companies` bottom lines.  

GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM (D), CALIFORNIA:  So I`ve asked my team to develop a
proposal for a new data dividend for Californians because we recognize your
data has value and it belongs to you.  

BOORSTIN:  With so much potential regulation, analyst Mark Mahaney says
Facebook`s investment to protect consumers and prepare for regulation is
weighing on returns.  

MAHANEY:  All across the board, this business is less profitable than it
was two years ago.  I don`t think it will regain those profit levels that
it had in the past.  

BOORSTIN:  Calls to protect consumer privacy reaches across the aisle.  
Senator Marco Rubio introducing the American Data Dissemination Act last
month.  While we await details from the FTC`s investigation, some analysts
warn government regulation and possible censorship of site content could
become more burdensome in coming years.  

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.  


GRIFFETH:  Well, it wasn`t exactly a fun Friday for shares of Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT), and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.  

The toy maker says its sales this year are going to be flat and gross sales
for the first quarter are going to decline.  Just last week, Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT) posted a surprise fourth quarter profit on strong demand for
its Barbie dolls and the stock took off.  That strength is now being
overshadowed by weakness in its Thomas the Train and American Girl
franchises.  Mattel`s shares today plunged 18 percent to $13.82.  

Meanwhile, Pepsi says that its future growth is going to come at a cost.  
The company said today it expects profits to decline as it increases
investment in some of its key businesses.  Pepsi reported earnings that
were in line with expectations and the chief financial officer says the
company is focused on what consumers want.  


HUGH JOHNSTON, PEPSICO CFO:  We`re going to go where the consumer wants to
go because we know there`s natural tailwinds and consumption of the types
of products that we create and we brand and we distribute.  We have all
these great capabilities.  We know we`re on trend with consumers.  So, if
consumers are moving to sparkling, we`re going to do that, whether it`s in
a can like Bubly or whether it`s make at home like our SodaStream business.  
So, we do see a ton of opportunity out there in beverages.  


GRIFFETH:  Shares rose about 3 percent today to $115.91.  

And Deere`s earnings missed estimates but revenue beat forecasts as the
world`s largest tractor maker was hurt by slowing trade with China and by
higher raw materials costs.  Deere reaffirmed its full-year guidance as it
sees equipment sales growing and optimism that a trade deal with China can
be reached.  Shares fell, though, more than 2 percent today to $158.99.  

HERERA:  Household products maker Newell Brands was hit by higher costs and
sluggish sales of its Graco (NYSE:GGG) baby products, following Toys “R” Us
going bankrupt.  The company did manage to beat earnings estimates but it
missed on revenue.  The maker of Sharpie and Elmer`s also issued a downbeat
outlook for the year and that sent shares lower, down nearly 21 percent to

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) is reportedly in talks with the Chinese video
game company Tencent to bring EA`s new hit game “Apex Legends” to China.  
Tencent also distributes two other similar games in China, including the
runaway hit “Fortnite”.  “Apex Legends” reached 25 million players earlier
this week.  EA shares rose 1.5 percent to $106.84.  

The cannabis company Canopy Growth said revenue surged nearly 300 percent
in its first quarter since Canada legalized recreational marijuana in
October, and that sent the shares 3 percent higher to $47.56.

XPO Logistics reported disappointing earnings last night but it was what
the CEO said on the analyst conference call this morning that investors
focused on.  The company said its biggest customer, which is believed to be
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), cut back on business with XPO by two-thirds.  XPO
says the reduction could lead to a decline in 2019 revenue.  

As we`ve reported, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is building out its own network of
distribution and delivery centers.  XPO shares were off nearly 13 percent
to $51.97.  FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS were also lower.  

GRIFFETH:  Now to our weekly market monitor.  He likes companies that he
says are transforming their businesses into faster growing entities and he
says names that he likes can grow between 15 percent and 20 percent over
the next 12 months.  This is his first time with us as a market monitor.  

David Yepez is portfolio manager with Excenial Wealth Advisors.

David, good to see you again.  Welcome back.  

you for having me.  

GRIFFETH:  These turnarounds, let`s talk first about Baxter, the hospitals
products company.  They`ve had a rough couple of years in the stock market.  
A new CEO, though, but you think he can turn things around, yes?  

YEPEZ:  Yes, yes.  So he was, if you remember back a few years ago he was
the CEO of Covidien.  He turned around that company and Medtronic
(NYSE:MDT) bought Covidien at a high premium.

So, now, he`s coming to Baxter.  He`s doing the same changes, changing the
management team, transforming the business, innovating.  And so we think,
you know, Baxter is the leading company in home dialysis and many products
from the ICU for hospitals.  So we think it can go 15 percent, 20 percent
from here.  

HERERA:  Next on the list is Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) which made some news late
this afternoon by upping its share repurchase program.  You like it because
you think it`s kind of been, you know, left behind, but there are basically
some big initiatives at this company that you think will allow it to
continue to grow.  

YEPEZ:  Right, that`s correct.  They have been the underdog company for
many years and now they`re innovating in the cloud.  They have an
autonomous database that is really fast, really secure.  We think now they
have an opportunity to transition their clients to the cloud, kind of like
similar to the Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) story.  

And so, now, in the application business, this is back office, solutions
for cloud, they`re doing lots of things on finance, HR.  And so, when you
take those things together, we think they can grow and the stock can do
very well in the next 12 months.  

GRIFFETH:  And your third pick this week, people may not think of it as a
turn-around but it`s ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM).  I was looking at the chart
today.  I was surprised that it`s been five years since this company hit an
all-time high.  It`s been trending lower since that time.  

Obviously, CEO Darren Woods has his hands full.  What do you think he has
to do to turn things around?  

YEPEZ:  Yes.  So, he`s turning around the upstream business.  That`s the
part where they have been lagging.  Now, they`re doing lots of investments
in many areas around the world.  And so, we think — they`re doing lots of
innovation, they`re lowering the cost of production, so we like it here.  
They have great opportunities.  

And while you wait, you get a 4.5 percent dividend yield.  So, we think
they have a very good chance to go higher from here.  

GRIFFETH:  Well, we will see how they do from here.  

David, again, thanks for joining.  David Yepez is with Excenial Wealth
Advisors.  Have a good weekend.  

YEPEZ:  Thank you.  

HERERA:  Coming up, riding the wave.  But the boating industry faces some
choppy waters.


GRIFFETH:  Here`s a look at what we`re watching.  

Next week is a shortened week because of the holiday.  Tuesday, Walmart
reports earnings, something that takes on greater significance following
yesterday`s sharp decline in retail sales.  Wednesday, we`ll get a peek
into the Fed`s thinking with the release of the minutes of its most recent
meeting.  And then on Friday, a number of Fed officials will be speaking
about the economy.  

And that`s what we`re watching next week.  

HERERA:  Eddie Lampert will step down as chairman of Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD).  
The decision follows Lampert and his hedge fund winning control of the
retailer in a bankruptcy court.  But Lampert will remain chairman of the
Transform Holdco which now controls all of the assets of Sears
(NASDAQ:SHLD) holdings.  Lampert says that his resignation from Sears
(NASDAQ:SHLD) is not the result of any disagreement with the company`s
board or its operations.  

GRIFFETH:  The commercial shipping and trucking industries give us a good
sense of how the economy is doing, and recreational boat sales do too.  
They are considered a leading economic indicator because they are purchased
with discretionary income, which is very sensitive economically.  

The health of the economy is usually the focus of the major international
boat show in Miami, but this year, as Frank Holland reports, it took on a
different tone with a focus on trade and tariffs.  


on display at the Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Miami International Boat Show.  

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE:  This boat is an incredibly versatile boat.  

HOLLAND:  It`s the biggest in the U.S. and a bigger deal this year.  

Many boat makers are hoping that domestic sales that shows like this one in
Miami where they generally make about 50 percent of their annual revenue
will make up for the international sales they are not making due to
retaliatory tariffs.  

business.  Thirty percent plus of our business was overseas shipments to
Canada, Mexico, E.U., China.  And since the tariffs were enacted, it`s
essentially dropped to nothing.  

HOLLAND:  So, what room are we in right now?  

PARMENTIER:  We`re in the slant.

HOLLAND:  Rob Parmentier is the president of Marquis Yachts.  With a strong
showing in Miami and a strong economy, Parmentier believes domestic sales
could exceed the 4 percent growth forecasted this year, but says that still
will not be enough.  

PARMENTIER:  We`ve been able to subsidize some of it with the American
growth.  But the American economy is not growing fast enough to suck all of
that loss.  And so what will happen eventually over time, we`ll be forced
to layoff some of our workforce.  

HOLLAND:  About three-quarters of U.S. boat exports are sold to the E.U.,
Canada, Mexico and China.  Their retaliatory tariffs are in response to the
232 tariffs on steel and aluminum enacted by the Trump administration last
year.  Brunswick (NYSE:BC) Boats, the nation`s largest publicly traded boat
maker and owner of the Mercury and Boston Whaler brands expect the tariffs
to reduce their 2019 pretax earnings by as much as $22 million.  That`s
about 6 percent of this same number last year.  

THOM DAMMRICH, NMMA PRESIDENT:  If these retaliatory tariffs continue, as
long as the domestic market remains strong and is growing, we`ll weather
it.  But if we hit a bump in the road, it will mean layoffs.  

HOLLAND:  Looking for new sources of growth, many boat makers are trying to
attract millennials.  Right now, the average boat owner is 58 years old.  

JOAN MAXWELL, PRESIDENT, REGULATOR MARINE:  Millennials loving this kind of

HOLLAND:  Joan Maxwell, the president of Regulator, says reversing that
trending is her top priority.  

Here in Miami, Regulator is debuting this new crossover.

MAXWELL:  It`s just like our phone.  So. we can touch anything we want to
do here and run the boat.

HOLLAND:  It`s a multipurpose boat where people can fish, water ski or just

MAXWELL:  Lean back, enjoy yourself, Frank.

HOLLAND:  It`s also about 32 percent less expensive than their average

MAXWELL:  This will bring us more buyers, so it`s a longer term view.  The
short-term view is sell everything you`ve got at the highest margins that
you can, but this is a longer term view.  

HOLLAND:  For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Frank Holland in Miami.  


HERERA:  Before we go, here`s a look at the final numbers from Wall Street.  
The Dow gained 443 points.  The Nasdaq added 45.  The S&P 500 was up 29.  

And for the week, all the major averages posted solid gains.  The Dow and
the Nasdaq were up, as we said, for eight straight weeks.  

GRIFFETH:  But we`re at a point now where the brokerage houses are starting
to disagree on the future of the stock market.  


GRIFFETH:  Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is tentative in seeing future growth for
the stock market, at least in the short term, while JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)
sees this rally continuing into the springtime.  

So we`ll see how things go.  We have all the retail earnings coming up next
week.  So, that should be interesting.

HERERA:  And that`s what makes the market, right?  

GRIFFETH:  Yes, it is.

HERERA:  That will do it for us tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.  I`m
Sue Herera.  Thanks for joining us.  

GRIFFETH:  I`m Bill Griffeth.  Have a great weekend.  We`ll see you again
on Monday.  It`s Presidents Day.  We have a special edition of NIGHTLY
BUSINESS REPORT then.  We`ll see you then.  


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