Transcript: Nightly Business Report – November 23, 2018


fall to a one-year low as pressure builds on OPEC to cut production.

deals draw big crowds even as more shoppers move online.

GRIFFETH: Real estate rush. As Amazon`s two new headquarter locations
open, potential buyers are hoping to get in before prices get out of reach.

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday,
November 23rd.

HERERA: Good evening, everyone, and welcome. And Happy Friday.

The decline in oil prices steepened on this holiday shortened trading
session. But we are going to begin tonight with the stock market. The S&P
500 closed in correction territory. Meaning it is down more than 10
percent from its September closing high. That drop in crude didn`t help.
It pushed energy stocks lower which proved to be a drag on the broader

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 178 to 24,285.
The Nasdaq slid 33. And the S&P 500 was down 17.

It was a rough week for all of the major averages, in fact, it was the
worst Thanksgiving week decline for the Dow since 2011.

GRIFFETH: And you could probably guess this: Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon
were the two worst performing stocks in the Dow today. They were pushed
lower by the price of crude which settled down nearly 8 percent to its
lowest level in more than a year today. It`s now lost a third of its value
just since its most recent high back on October 3rd.

The concern is not so much a surge in supply but it`s about fears of a
global economic slowdown as well, which would soften demand.

Jackie DeAngelis takes a look at forces at play in the oil patch.


has taken some investors by surprise. The first drop of 20 percent came
when the Iran premium came off the table. But now, prices slide because
the fundamentals are kicking in.

U.S. output stands at 11 million barrels a day, the highest in years. OPEC
output near 33 million barrels a day, also at recent highs. The only
problem is, demand forecasts aren`t holding up, as the market is
questioning how strong the economy will be in 2019.

Another factor: OPEC. Producers will meet in Vienna on December 6th.
There`s been some chatter that they may cut production to shore up prices.
But would a cut from an inflated base make a meaningful difference? It`s a
game that OPEC has played before.

One bright spot to the slide, lower gas prices. The national average for a
gallon of regular is $2.58, according to AAA. That`s down 26 cents from
last month. But still higher than this time last year. A quarter saved
per gallon for, say, a $16 gallon tank on average is about 4 bucks. It
does add up, but is that a big enough savings of holiday time to get
shoppers spending significantly more?

And with oil dangerously close to $50. The 40s could be in the cards again
soon. There will be a point where low prices hurt big oil more than they
help the economy.



HERERA: Today marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.
Black Friday, the day on which retailers have traditionally made enough
sales to put them in the black for the year. The National Retail
Federation predicts that billions will be spent over the next few days both
online and in stores.

And Courtney Reagan is monitoring the crowds looking for those bargains at
the mall in Woodbridge, New Jersey.

Hi, Court.


Here at the mall, traffic has only picked up as the day moved forward, and
that`s despite those door buster deals being offered on Thanksgiving
evening at department stores and big box retailers. Black Friday is
expected to be the busiest day of the weekend on the busiest weekend of the
year for retail.

Deloitte says 70 percent of the Americans will shop at some point this
weekend. And of that 70 percent, more than 80 percent will shop today, in
store, online or both. In fact, we spoke to many shoppers who may
literally be shopping until they drop.


UNIDENTIFEID FEMALE: We went home. We slept for about four hours and left
again at 5:30 this morning. We`ve been here since. We`re leaving this
mall, Woodbridge Mall, and we`re heading to Menlo Mall after this.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, Bed Bath and Beyond.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bed Bath and Beyond and anything else we can stop on.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Went to H&M, went to Forever 21, Victoria`s Secret, I
think we go home first and drop off the bags. Probably eat something, all
the leftovers from yesterday and we`ll probably think about it to go again
somewhere else.


REAGAN: MasterCard (NYSE:MA) spending poll says $23 billion could be spent
on this Black Friday, $2 billion more than last Black Friday and 40 percent
more sales volume than of an average day during the holiday season.
Online, a very big part of this. It`s estimated that Thanksgiving Day set
a brand new record as the fastest growing retail day for ecommerce to date.

Sue, back to you.

HERERA: Thanks so much, Courtney. Courtney Reagan in Woodbridge, New

GRIFFETH: And, of course, one of the biggest challenges facing traditional
retailers this time of year is Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

As Julia Boorstin reports, the ecommerce giant is forcing stores like
Target (NYSE:TGT) to come up with new strategies.


gave shoppers a jump on Black Friday by opening stores Thanksgiving. The
key to keep registers ringing over the holiday weekend, new strategies that
integrate Target`s digital offerings and in store presence, catering to
shoppers who want both options.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think online is the best option. It takes away
traffic and wait times and parking spaces, and all that stress and hassles.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I like to come to the store because it supports the
stores and I like the chaos in there. And sometimes I`m not a fan of
ordering stuff online.

BOORSTIN: And for the first time, Target (NYSE:TGT) is offering Drive Up,
a free same-day service enabling guests to have items they ordered that day
brought to their car and the parking lot.

ED YRUMA, KEYBANC CAPITAL EQUITY MARKETS: We think Drive Up is a great way
to use the existing stores and merge stores and e-com. You know, we think
there`s a number of consumers that actually don`t find delivery to be more
convenient. They pass by a Target (NYSE:TGT) store or Walmart store to and
from work, to and from school. And so, Drive Up can actually be a very,
very convenient way for the consumer to shop.

BOORSTIN: And Target`s new skip the line technology enables guests to
check out with a target employees are employee from a mobile device
anywhere in the store.

This bolsters Target`s battle with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which is expected
to dominate about half of all ecommerce sales this year by highlighting the
convenience of Target`s brick and mortar presence while also eliminating
the hassle.

And when it comes to ecommerce, to step up competition with Amazon`s free
shipping for prime subscribers for the first time target will offer free
two-day shipping on thousands of items. With the option of same-day
delivery in as little as one hour through start-up shipped and in store
target is shining a spotlight on its best deals, including an expanded
focus on toys with double the number it had last year.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Target (NYSE:TGT) is actually my store. I come here
and get all my things here. So now they have a little more toys, it`s
nice. And that they remodel the store, that was a big plus.

BOORSTIN: Target (NYSE:TGT) is also relying in the likes of 15 TVs under
$300 and select video games to draw shoppers. But analysts say all of
Target`s investments to get shoppers in the store and clicking online could
ultimately be a drag on profits, at least for now.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.


HERERA: Target (NYSE:TGT) isn`t the only retailer with a new strategy.
Consumer electric stores Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) is aiming to be a one stop

Frank Holland is in Deptford, New Jersey.


Black Friday deals, many waited in the cold outside this Best Buy
(NYSE:BBY) in New Jersey.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get out, get the experience. Socialize a little bit.
I know it`s gearing towards everybody staying home. But still nice to get
out and see the crowds, you know?

HOLLAND: John coming for a flat screen, leaving with a 55-inch and a sense
of satisfaction.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It was worth it, it was worth it.

HOLLAND: Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) executives say home devices like this from
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) will be among their best sellers. Also, flat screens
like this from Toshiba with the Fire TV included and, of course, video
games systems. This Nintendo Switch is one of the Black Friday door

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Cyber Monday is also pretty good. And — but I like to
put my hands sometimes on the product and touch it. That`s why I like
coming to the stores.

HOLLAND: The big box retailer is also focusing on toys for kids from
Barbie, to LOL dolls to Nerf.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I can`t wait for them to open on Christmas Day.

HOLLAND: Moms like Alysha (ph) are finding what they bought at Toys “R” Us
before it shot down.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I really miss Toys “R” Us. I`m usually there first
thing Thursday. But without them, I`m doing alternate and came in for
something else, saw the toy section and utilized it.

HOLLAND: Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), like many retailers, opened on Thanksgiving,
catering to people who are hungrier for deals than Turkey.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I`m happy to be here, happy to be able to buy
something and get something on sale.

HOLLAND: Consumer confidence took a recent hit according to a recent study
but remains at historic highs. People here say they are ready and willing
to spend.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I got a credit card this year and I`m spending more
than ever.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The market is going down right now. But still I`m
still spending stuff. It`s Black Friday. So, why not?

HOLLAND: For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Frank Holland in Deptford, New


GRIFFETH: Well, let`s break down the potential real winners and losers
this holiday shopping season.

Joining us is Charlie O`Shea, who`s celebrating 16 years as retail analyst
at Moody`s (NYSE:MCO) Analyst.

HERERA: Congratulations.


GRIFFETH: Everybody measures foot traffic. You were out doing channel
checks as well.

But is that a realistic measure when we consider how much money has already
been spent online as well?

O`SHEA: We have to get away from looking at the comp of Black Friday year
over year, looking at foot traffic. The season gets longer and longer
every year. I`m starting to use Halloween as my opening day for the
holiday season, given how the promotional cadence has been working.

And as you start moving online, you`re going to see lots of people in the
stores. That`s okay. We are focused at Moody`s at operating income
growth, not just sales. So, we want to see what you put in the bank.

If you get a sale, it doesn`t really matter anymore where it comes from.
It comes from online or if it comes from the store, you just want the sale.
And we`ve seen that with Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) is
online revenue, it started contract a little bit, but the top line is still
growing. So, they`re becoming more agnostic, as where that sale gets made.

And with all the online investments you`re making, that`s exactly the
mentality you have to have.

HERERA: So they are buying.

O`SHEA: Yes.

HERERA: They feel better about the economy. So, who stands to benefit
from that?

O`SHEA: The big four in my portfolio, obviously, Walmart, Target
(NYSE:TGT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). Holidays is an
electronic type season for the most part. They`ve all got massive shares
in the consumer electronics space.

On the other end of the spectrum, on the department store side, you know,
Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) looks really good. Macy`s (NYSE:M) is performing
well. Dillard`s had an investment grade rating, which is meaningful for a
department store.

And the other end of the spectrum I think you`re going to go there next is,
you know, who is suffering? The lower end of the rating category is really
suffering. I mean, those are names — well, Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) isn`t
there anymore because of bankruptcy. But Neiman Marcus (NYSE:MCS) is down
there. J. Crew is down there.

GRIFFETH: JCPenney maybe?

O`SHEA: Penny is just a notch above. But these are all companies that
could really use good holidays.

GRIFFETH: Really PetSmart (NASDAQ:PETM)? Everybody loves their pets.

O`SHEA: The pet space is kind of under siege right now. Mikki covers pets
for us. You have online as a big player there. And Walmart has got a
massive pet business. And, you know, with Walmart, people kind of forget
about Walmart and some categories, but Walmart always had a strong pet
business. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is moving heavily into pet.

GRIFFETH: Quickly, each of the reporters we just had here highlighted toys
at various retailers. They`re all trying to pick up the Toys “R” us
business as they went out of business.

O`SHEA: It looks like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Walmart and Target (NYSE:TGT)
will carve up the lion`s share of that.

GRIFFETH: And Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) is in there too.

O`SHEA: And Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) — well, Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) has had that
video business for years, and kind of dabbled in toys. This year, doubled
down a little bit, makes a lot of sense given the dynamic with toys out of
the market. So, that will be interesting. And that`s something we`re
paying a lot of attention to that as well.

HERERA: Fascinating.

GRIFFETH: Charlie O`Shea with Moody`s Analytics.

O`SHEA: Thank you.

GRIFFETH: I know you`ll be busy channel surfing.

O`SHEA: Yes, I will be. Thank you.

GRIFFETH: See you later.

HERERA: Still ahead, driving off with a deal.


Friday at the malls. It`s also Black Friday in auto dealerships, a crucial
day for a big end of the year push in the auto industry.

I`m Phil LeBeau. That story coming up on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.



HERERA: Nissan has ousted Chairman Carlos Ghosn. Ghosn held that position
since 2001. As we reported, he was arrested Monday in Tokyo for allegedly
falsifying financial information. Other reports say Ghosn used the
Japanese automaker`s money to buy personal homes and to pay his sister for
consulting jobs that she did not perform.

GRIFFETH: Now while Black Friday is huge for retailers in malls obviously,
it has also become almost as important for auto dealers. In fact, November
and December are now two of the biggest months of the year for sales for
them. And that`s the case again this year, even though buyers are finding
fewer deals.

Phil LeBeau is in Lyle, Illinois, for us.


LEBEAU: Break out the bows. The holiday sale season is revving up at auto
dealerships. And this year should be a busy one, starting with Black

MATT JONES, EDMUNDS: What we normally see with Black Friday deals is we
see this really just like pinpoint laser focus on just that weekend. But
what`s happening now is we expect to see the deals go out through the end
of the month and in some cases into December, which is actually going to
give us a little bit more top shopping time.

LEBEAU: This year, buyers are looking for bigger rides. Pickups and SUVs
remain red hot, thanks in part to automakers offering more models to choose
from and because gas prices continue to move lower, now well under $3 a

But are buyers getting holiday deals this year? It depends on the model.
If the car or sedan, expect heavy discounts. Maybe not as much for popular
crossover utility vehicles.

And while there are some ads for zero percent financing, the reality is
higher interest rates means it costs auto makers more to write a loan at
zero percent.

JONES: Manufacturers are pulling away from that and instead they`re
offering cash rebates or discounts, things like that. But we are seeing
noticeably less zero percent offers than they have in the past.

LEBEAU: With the strong economy and high consumer confidence, buyers are
looking to bring home a new ride for the holidays.

If the holiday sale season is as robust as auto makers and auto dealers are
hoping, then 2018 sales should top 17 million vehicles. That would be the
fourth straight year it has happened, something we haven`t seen before in
the United States.

Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Lyle, Illinois.


HERERA: China gives conditional approval to a big industrial merger, and
that is where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) received antitrust approval from China for
its $23 billion purchase of Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL). As with U.S. and
European regulators, China is asking for United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) to
sell off certain assets. United Tech rose 2.5 percent to $129.04.
Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) was up 9 percent to $141.63.

Tesla is cutting the price of its Model X and Model S cars in China. The
discount will be between 12 percent and 26 percent. The decision comes
amid those severe trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

In a statement, the electric car company says it`s absorbing part of that
tariff to help make its cars more affordable. China, as you may know, is
the world`s top auto market. Shares rose about 4 percent to $325.83.

GRIFFETH: Visa (NYSE:V) and MasterCard (NYSE:MA) have reportedly offered
to trim merchant fees in Europe for card payments by tourists. According
to “Reuters”, the payment networks are said to be trying to avoid fines
related to an antitrust investigation over there. Shares of Visa (NYSE:V)
fell 1 percent to $132.87. While MasterCard (NYSE:MA) was down more than 2
percent to $182.60.

And the CEO of Overstock is telling “The Wall Street Journal” that he
expects to wrap up a sale of the company`s retail business by February,
although he did not name any potential buyers. Overstock is going to shift
its strategy and focus to cryptocurrencies and a new Blockchain trading
system, and that sent shares of that small cap up 23 percent today to

HERERA: Time for our weekly market monitor who likes stocks that are
somewhat immune to trade tensions.

He is Oliver Pursche, chief market strategist at Bruderman Brothers.

Welcome back, Oliver. Nice to have you here.

much. Good to be back.

HERERA: So, you say lower trade sensitivity, diversified revenue streams
and low cyclicality is kind of the broad brush for these three picks,

PURSCHE: Absolutely. So we`re in a tough market. We have seen it
throughout October and November. And so, you want to be a little bit
defensive, but that doesn`t mean that you have to go away and go into cash.
There`s plenty of opportunities, especially after the selloff.

HERERA: All right. So let`s talk the top retail pick you have because
`tis the season — Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

PURSCHE: Yes, absolutely. So, retail is far from dead. And we`re seeing
some tremendous early numbers for this big shopping holiday weekend. And
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the big winner there.

And after being sold off by over 25 percent along with the rest of the
FAANG stocks, this is both a value play, as well as a retail play, and
growth story and we love it for a long-term basis.

GRIFFETH: You have a growth and income play. That would be Verizon
(NYSE:VZ), pretty rich dividend, 4 percent right now.

PURSCHE: Yes, solid dividend, solid balance sheet, good growth prospect.
Telecom, especially with 5G coming around the corner, over the next year or
so, are going to be tremendous. The telecom sector as a whole has
underperformed but Verizon (NYSE:VZ) has shine and really done well. And
we think that`s going to continue. So, for a little bit more growth-
oriented — you know, income-oriented investors, Verizon (NYSE:VZ) plays

HERERA: And here is another telecom pick but is a top dividend pick and
that is a BCE (NYSE:BCE) Group.

PURSCHE: Yes, it`s Canada`s largest media company and telecom company, 5.5
percent dividend. Slow and steady. Again this is probably the most
conservative of the three stock picks that we just reviewed. If you are
looking for yield and are going to own the stock for several years, BCE
(NYSE:BCE) is a terrific play.

GRIFFETH: And again to emphasize, you`re looking for companies that you
feel can weather whatever is coming here in terms of a growth slowdown,
rising interest rates, tariff wars things like that. Is that the idea?

PURSCHE: Absolutely. So, we want to somewhat be immune. We want to be
anti-cyclical. We want to — look, no one is predicting the U.S. economy
or world economy is coming to a screeching halt but a slowdown is fairly
evident. The trade war with China is going to be an issue well into 2019.
There is potential issues with Europe.

So you want to kind of insulate yourself from all these things as best as
possible. And given the recent selloff, these are three names that can do
that for you.

HERERA: On that note, Oliver, thank you so much.

PURSCHE: Thank you.

HERERA: Oliver Porsche with Bruderman Brothers.

GRIFFETH: Well, the housing market may be cooling in many parts of the
country. But there are two major exceptions. That would be Long Island
City, New York, and Arlington, Virginia. And it`s all thanks, of course,
to Amazon`s recent announcement that it will locate two more headquarters
in those locations.

And it didn`t take more than a minute for real estate demand there to sky

Diana Olick has details.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, this entire cue is sold out.

tower in Long Island City, New York, throngs of buyers from far and wide
swarmed this Sunday open house.

TERESA ALI, GALERIE SALES MANAGER: The numbers have really quadrupled
because of the announcement and location of in building process.

OLICK: Investors and potential residents alike were hoping to get in
before prices get out of reach.

ROSA DEL TUADRO, INVESTOR: I think they`re inflated now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I think things are going up tremendously.


OLICK: In fact, some developers even delisted several units waiting to
reprice them later when they see the new demand.

Real estate agent Patrick Smith saw it happened in a matter of minutes.

someone just hit a switch and the market went from a buyers market to
sellers market overnight.

OLICK: Because agents and owners saw what Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) did for
Seattle`s housing market.

SMITH: In many locations in Seattle, the median home price doubled. So,
everyone is looking at that, home buyers, developers and investors, and
they`re trying to figure out, you know, how much money they leave on the
table if any sell now rather than waiting.

OLICK: On the Tuesday that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) made the announcement
traffic on`s website jumped over 200 percent for Long Island
City and Arlington, Virginia.

ANNE CHANG, JADE STONE REAL ESTATE FOUNDER: The news broke and we woke up
to so many — message from investors about, pointing about the city.

OLICK: And while there is a lot of inventory in Long Island City, supplies
are lower in the D.C. area, especially for single family homes. And real
estate agents say potential sellers are not jumping to list their
properties. Instead, they`re waiting to see prices move higher first.

shortage of homes. Right now, a three-month supply, we don`t have an
abundance of homes available.

OLICK: So, as demanded suddenly jumps, Lagos expects prices to follow.

LAGOS: The sellers are going to get back in the driver seat again.

OLICK: In other words, unlike shopping on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) itself,
buyers will not see many bargains.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.


GRIFFETH: And coming up, small business hopes for a very big Saturday.


GRIFFETH: Tomorrow is expected to be a big day for mom and pop retailers,
Small Business Saturday as it has become known is estimated to bring in
billions of dollars each year for Main Street`s independent retailers and

Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG) has more.


our biggest sellers?

For Mackenzi Farquer, there is nothing small about Small Business Saturday.

MACKENZIE FARQUER, LOCKWOOD OWNER: Small Business Saturday is our busiest
day of the year.

ROGERS: The American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP) sponsored holiday inn
the ninth year is sandwiched between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Encouraging shoppers to get out to support their local retailers,
restaurants and more, both in person and on the web.

Farquer has been participating since the start and says nearly a decade in
there is barely room to stand in her Queens, New York retail shop on Small
Business Saturday. In fact, that single day accounts for 8 percent her
holiday season sales.

FARQUER: I think people in this neighborhood, especially, are trained to
know like this is the day you come and support small businesses. So,
they`re not only coming to do holiday shopping but they want to be here to
support us. It`s really about the show. And it`s hyped.

ROGERS: More than 80 percent of consumers say they plan to shop small
either in person or online according to data from American Express
(NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP) and the National Federation of Independent Business.
And last year, customers spent some $13 billion on Small Business Saturday.

Ecommerce platform Etsy is known for connecting shoppers with its 2 million
small business sellers online. This year, it`s bringing the shopping
experience to life with pop-up shops in cities across the country as well
as marketing online shops.

RAINA MOSKOWITZ, ETSY: Small Business Saturday is a great chance to drive
awareness and keep small businesses top of mind. Mass retailers play a
great role in convenience and price. But when you shop from a small
business, there is a story behind what you`re buying, and it`s so much more
personal and thoughtful, especially for the holiday season.

ROGERS: Dog products brand Crew Lala makes bow tie collars leashes and
more, giving back a portion of its profits to animal rescue organizations.
The Etsy seller retails online and in person at its Charleston, South
Carolina, store front. For the past few years, Small Business Saturday
sales have doubled.

HEATHER PARKER, CREW LALA OWNER: Forty percent of our customers from Small
Business Saturday were first time customers. Of that 40 percent, 65
percent actually turned into returning customers. Having a day that really
shows the support to the community is — is really inspiring. It helps us,
kind of fuels us for the rest of the year.



GRIFFETH: And you can read more about Small Business Saturday on our
website, at

HERERA: Before we go, here`s a look at the final numbers on Wall Street.
The Dow fell 178 points, the Nasdaq slid 33, S&P 500 was down 17.

All of the major indexes were lower for the week.

And that will do it for us tonight, for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. I`m Sue
Herera. Thanks for joining us.

GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Is it the weekend already?

HERERA: It is.

GRIFFETH: Well, have a wonderful one. We`ll see you again on Monday.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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Media, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views
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Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
(c) 2018 CNBC, Inc.


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