Transcript: Nightly Business Report – November 20, 2018


of intense selling pushes the Dow and S&P into negative territory for the
year. And the Nasdaq is barely hanging on.

hit hard ahead of the holiday shopping season, even as companies report
strong sales.

GRIFFETH: Pockets of strength. Despite all of the selling, believe it or
not, parts of the market are working.

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Tuesday,
November 20th.

HERERA: And good evening, everyone, and welcome.

The gains for 2018 are mostly gone. The selloff in technology has spread
to other corners of the market, just about every other corner in fact. And
today, the retail sector took a beating as did oil.

All 30 Dow components ended lower. Traders at the New York Stock Exchange
were kept pretty busy especially after both Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) said they expect the economy to slow significantly next
year. And that led to a lot of red.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 551 points to 24,465. The
Nasdaq dropped 119 and the S&P 500 declined 48.

So, with the sharp declines, is the nine-year bull market still intact?

Mike Santoli takes a look.


the line between a bull and bear market. While the S&P 500 in the U.S. is
down only slightly for the year, it saw its last record high two months ago
and is now stuck in its second 10 percent downturn of the year. Half of
all large stocks are down 20 percent from the high.

Technical analysts point out that the market`s uptrend back to 2016 looks
broken. For months, investors have gravitated toward defensive stocks of
stable companies that can withstand tougher times. Rallies have been brief
and buying the dips has been unrewarding. The typically strong seasonal
trends in November have so far been ignored. The corporate credit market
has begun to weaken noticeably. Global equity index has remained well off
their highs. And in recent weeks, the mostly widely owned and loved growth
stocks of technology have been toppled.

And yet, for all the anxiety and the damage done, investors are taking some
comfort in the fact that the U.S. economy continues to show sturdy growth
for now. Nearly, all deep or lasting markets are accompanied by a
recession. And there are few clear signs that one is approaching fast
right now.

In some respects, the market`s tail spin resembles the experience of 2015
and 2016. Back then, weakness in the Chinese economy and oil crash, credit
margin stress, they all struck a narrow tech-focused stock rally in the
U.S. A six-month correction phase accompanied by a corporate downturn was
the result.

With the Federal Reserve managing one rate increase in December 2015 before
putting further hikes on hold for a year. This might not be the worst
outcome for investors if we did see a repeat, given that the market reset
itself at lower valuations back then as the global economy recovered. Then
again, the U.S. economic expansion is now another three years old. Stocks
are more expensive than they were three years ago and the threat of a long
trade standoff adds a tough new wrinkle.



GRIFFETH: So, was the mood on the floor of the stock exchange just as
intense as the selling was?

Kenny Polcari is the director of the NYSE floor division at O`Neil
Securities and he joins from the big board tonight.

Kenny, welcome back.


GRIFFETH: I won`t embarrass you I telling everybody how long you`ve been
working on the floor. But suffice it to say you have seen your share of
upmarkets and downmarkets. What`s the mood on the floor, sentiment on the
floor? Is this a short-term blip or is it the beginning of something —
are we in the beginning stages of a longer term downtrend?

POLCARI: No, I think the mood has turned suddenly to a little bit of
concern. But nobody is yet in that –in that camp that it`s going to turn
into this protracted kind of downturn that you just referred to. I think
what`s happening, you know, is that there is certainly a shift, there`s
certainly a change in psychology. With earnings season, we got kind of
weaker forward guidance which is causing a little bit of concern. We saw
the market break down in October when rates spiked to 3.25.

Now, what`s interesting, rates spike to 3.25 caused the initial downturn.
Rates are ten-year rates are 3.05 now, down 3.25, yet the market can`t seem
to get out of its own way.


POLCARI: Partly because the selloff in October created a lot of trend line
damage, right? Belonging at the 50, 100, 200-day moving averages which are
typically long-term supports for technical trading, technical analysis.
Those lines were broken.

And once those lines were broken, risk management software that controls so
much of what asset managers do today, they operate on numbers. And the
minute the numbers are breached, the risk management software goes into
this overdrive and said be, OK, in order to protect the portfolio, you need
to raise cash.

How do you do that? So, you sell stock. So, by selling stock, you raise
crash. But then what happens, it starts to build on itself. When the
technical levels are broken, the market needs to find a new bottom, a
foundation. It hasn`t found that yet.

GRIFFETH: All right. Well, we`ll keep an eye on it.

Kenny, thanks for staying late for us tonight. Appreciate it.


GRIFFETH: Kenny Polcari with O`Neil Securities at the New York Stock

HERERA: The retail sector was hit very hard today, just days before Black
Friday. It started with investors focusing on target`s higher costs,
sending that stock down 10 percent. And it continued when Kohl`s, Ross
Store, Lowe`s and TJX reported results.

Courtney Reagan has more on today`s retail wreck.


go until the door buster deals begin at Target (NYSE:TGT), but the
retailer`s latest earnings report is giving investors some concern. Will
comparable sales grow more than 5 percent? Analysts expected more. The
retailer`s digital sales increased nearly 50 percent but, fulfilling those
online orders was expensive and pressured margins.

DANA TELSEY, TELSEY ADVISORY GROUP CEO: I think the third quarter numbers
for retailers could they represent the high water mark, because we`ve
certainly come through a time period where we`ve had a strong consumer,
we`ve had a fashion cycle that`s benefitted. And in 2019, we`re going to
be lapping tax reform, wage increases, and we`ve got labor cost pressures
and freight pressures.

You have a strong consumer, but each of these companies, there is
initiatives in place that don`t come for free.

REAGAN: Like Target (NYSE:TGT), Lowe`s and Kohl`s margins were also
pressured, even though both turned in stronger profit and revenue.

Retail CEOs are working to assure the market that the U.S. consumer is
still strong going into the holiday season and that the right strategies
are in place.

On a media call, Target (NYSE:TGT) CEO Brian Cornell said, quote: The
consumer is very healthy as we entered the fourth quarter. Unemployment is
low. GDP is growing.

And when pressed as to whether the consumer is weakening, Cornell said
quote he see no change in the consumer environment.

And Best Buy`s media, CEO Hubert Joly said everything we see about the
consumer is very positive, and, quote, we are feeling really good about
this holiday season. But he continued: Because the cycle has been going on
for so long, everyone that studied economics knows it can`t last forever,
and as a result are convincing themselves it`s going to end.

ED YRUMA, KEYBANC MANAGING DIRECTOR: We think the consumer is in the best
place it`s been in a long time I think what you have to focus on though is
the fact that gains begin to moderate, right? We heard that everyone from
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) all the way down.

SUSAN ANDERSON, B. RILEY FBR SENIOR VP: We expect one of the jolliest
holidays for over a decade now. So, you know, I think that investors
looking out to next year and saying can this momentum continue.

REAGAN: With so many concerns, the strong retail trend is over, the
holiday stakes just got even higher.



GRIFFETH: Indeed the timing of the selloff could not have come at a worse
time for retailers. While some shoppers we talk to say they do not plan to
cut back on holiday spending, others are thinking twice.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I tried to do basically the same thing I do every
holiday. I got a budget myself and decide exactly what I`m going to do. I
know in advance, is that what I`m going to do. So, I don`t — I don`t get
caught up in volatility. You know, I just do what I planned to do. I make
a price I set it and that`s it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don`t know other people but you might think twice
about the big things, maybe not gift for the grandchildren and things like
that. But an extra goody that you might have thought about when the market
was up so high, you might not think that good today.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Markets up or down doesn`t matter. I`ll find
something to buy no matter what.


HERERA: Well, one thing people were not buying today was Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL). It was the worst performing stock in the Dow. Shares were
off nearly 5 percent. After Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut the provides
target the third time this month. That putting the stock in bear market
territory now, down more than 20 percent from the October 3rd high.

And if that`s not enough wait until Dominic Chu shows you the size of the
market losses in big cap tech.


there, the FAANG stocks, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) parent
company Alphabet have been leadership to the upside, but traders have
watched them fall by some of the most to the downside. Each of these names
has fallen about at least 20 percent from their respective record highs hit
earlier this year. And just to put the numbers around those percentage
declines, they are staggering. For instance, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), both of those stocks have fallen by enough to shave
off around $264 billion apiece from their market values. And just to put
that in perspective, that`s like losing an entire Bank of America
(NYSE:BAC) from one market cap just to kind of put in the perspective here.

Also, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) shares, $250 billion or thereabouts in lost
market value. Alphabet, the parent company of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), has
lost around $152 billion since the record highs back on July 27th. And
online streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has lost about $64 billion
since record highs on June 21st.

All told, if you add in all of these market values lost, that means these
FAANG stocks, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), have lost
around $992 billion in market value.

Yes, that`s right, almost $1 trillion gone in overall market value. And
again, for perspective, that`s like losing more than the value of Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) as an entire company just since each company`s respective



GRIFFETH: And the Fed is still a concern for investors. And now it
appears that the market`s expectations about future rate hikes may be

Steve Liesman explains.


stock market and recent Fed comments have investors thinking that interest
rates may not be rising as much next year as they originally thought.
While a quarter point rate hike in December looks priced in, futures
markets don`t see another hike coming until June 2019, in a previously
priced in March.

Some of that new thinking on the Fed comes from comments made by Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell himself. He suggested recently that there were
equal risks in going too fast or too slow in hiking rates.

rates too low for too long. The other mistake and we have had plenty of
advice to do this, is to raise rates too soon and prematurely terminate an
expansion. We haven`t done that.

So, we`re at a point we have to take both of those risks very seriously.
And that`s why we`ve been raising rates again quite gradually.

LIESMAN: Economist Louis Alexander from Nomura said, quote: Powell`s
recent comments suggest a dovish shift in the chair`s message.

And some Fed officials have even openly questioned the December hike.

Philly Fed President Patrick Harker said last week, quote, at this point,
I`m not convinced the December rate move is the right move, but I need to
watch the data over the next few weeks.

Now, many Fed officials still seem committed to bringing the funds rate to
what they call neutral. That`s where it neither stimulates nor slows the
economy. The Fed puts that range between 2.5 and 3.5 percent compared to
the current funds rate of between 2 percent and 2.25 percent.

If the economic data weaken over the next several months, the Fed could
stop hiking in the lower end of that range, meaning there isn`t much work
for the Fed to do from here when it comes to hiking rates.



HERERA: So we are six weeks into the selling. What are individual
investors doing?

J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) joins
us now to talk about that.

Good to see you again, J.J.

Sue. How are you?

HERERA: You say you are hearing from people that the question about
whether or not we`re in a bear market. And are they acting on that

KINAHAN: No, you know, I think the most amazing thing about this — you
talked about it a little bit at the top of the show — is this has been the
most orderly selloff. And I think what`s happened is people are no longer
buying the dip. But I think a lot of people who have accumulated stocks
like, you know, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), that are a
favorite of retail traders, people are still sort of staying with them
overall, hoping that there`s a little bit of a bounce back because any
haven`t panicked yet.

And one thing I would say to the retail investors so many of whom watch you
every day is, you know, if you get to a place where you are uncomfortable,
think about partially getting out rather than getting out of all at once or
all in at once. And I think that`s a mistake people often made. But that
said, back to the trading itself, I think that as Dominic, you know, showed
the VIX is still at not a very high level overall compared to even last
month. Last month, we got the 28th.


KINAHAN: This month, our highs been — today, we`re at 23. So I think
people have a little bit of sort of faith that things will reprice at some
point down here.

GRIFFETH: You know, we have been watching the bond market as well. And
while stock prices have been going down sharply, bond yields have not been
going down.


GRIFFETH: As much as you might imagine. Which suggests that people are —
when they get out of the stock market, they are not necessarily going to
bonds. They`re probably going to cash.

What do you make of that?

KINAHAN: Yes, I do think that`s part of it, Bill. And I think one of the
other things we are seeing maybe surprisingly is people looking for sort of
what they consider safety dividend stocks. We have seen that in some of
the consumer staples, particularly, if you look at like a Coke or Pepsi
that still have over 3 percent dividends and people feel are more blue chip
sort of steady. You know, normally, you would see them, as you say, go to
bonds or go to some of the utilities or some of the energy players during
times like this.

But with what`s going on with crude, I think that`s scared a lot of people
away from that play. So, I believe you are right. They are going to cash
or going to what they considered to be true defensive and some of the
staple stocks which held up very well compared to the rest of the market

HERERA: J.J., always we appreciate your perspective. Thanks for joining

KINAHAN: Thanks for having me, guys.

HERERA: And we`re going to talk more about oil in just a minute. J.J.


GRIFFETH: All right. Time to take a look at some of today`s “Upgrades and

And we begin with ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) tonight, which was downgraded to
underperform from market perform at Raymond James. The analyst says that
Exxon will not benefit necessarily from higher oil prices next year. The
firm cites Exxon`s ultra defensive characteristics. The stock fell more
than 2.5 percent today to $76.97.

But Raymond James did upgrade fellow energy giant BP to outperform from
market perform. The analyst cited that stock`s valuation. The firm also
pointed to BP`s free cash flow and production growth. But the stock fell
along with the broader market today to $40.10.

HERERA: Still ahead, why the oil bears are out in force and nowhere near

But, first, a look at 2018 performance of all 11 S&P 500 sectors.


HERERA: Late today, the French car maker Renault said Carlos Ghosn will
remain as the automaker`s chairman and CEO for now while being detained in
Japan. But Renault did appoint a deputy CEO to lead day to day operations.
As we reported yesterday, Ghosn, who also runs Nissan, was arrested for
allegedly misusing company funds.

GRIFFETH: Well, as we mentioned, oil prices did fall sharply today on the
usual suspects: supply concerns and worries about a global economic
slowdown. Losses deepened after President Trump today said the U.S. stands
by Saudi Arabia after receiving the CIA`s report on the killing last month
of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.


hundreds of billions in orders and let Russia, China and everybody else
have them. It`s all about for me, very simple, it`s America first.

Saudi Arabia, if we broke with them, I think your oil prices would go
through the roof. I`ve kept them down. They`ve helped me keep them done.
Right now, we have low oil provides or relatively. I`d like to see it go
down even lower.


GRIFFETH: Domestic crowd did settle around $53 a barrel today. That is
the lowest level since October of last year.

HERERA: So, let`s talk more about the decline in oil prices. We`re joined
by John Kilduff with Again Capital.

Good to see you, again, John.


HERERA: All right. So, what`s your sense of where we are in the oil
cycle? Obviously, we had a big drop today. We`ve seen the market fall for
some time.

Where are we in the cycle?

KILDUFF: Well, President Trump has turned out to be the straw that stirs
the drink in this market, really, because his administration sort of goaded
Saudi Arabia and the Russians to put more oil on the market earlier this
year, which they aggressively did ahead of the sanctions that were to be
imposed on Iran. There was a clear signal sent from the administration
that Iran oil exports were going to zero or as close to that as possible,
as quickly as possible. A complete 180 was undertaken back in October,
when the sanctions came into effect in early November.

And lo and behold, we`re losing hardly any Iranian oil and the Saudis and
Russians are now pumping full out, flooding the market. We tripped into an
oversupply situation.

GRIFFETH: But the expectation is that OPEC is going to vote to cut when
they meet next time around, but yet the prices are still going lower.

KILDUFF: Well, the Saudi-U.S. relationship was obviously bought and paid
for today. There was concern in the market that the Saudis were unhappy
with more sanctions imposed on the country, potentially even on the Crown
Prince Mohamed bin Salman.

But obviously, this relationship is too big to fail. And we`re going to
stay together, and as a result of that, the Saudis are beholden to have to
put more oil on the market or keep them on market and the keep these prices
low or lower, or risk the wrath of President Trump. It`s a pretty clear
setup here.

HERERA: So, if indeed, there is more downside, do you have a sense of how
much more to the downside oil could move?

KILDUFF: Well, we are going into a peak demand period here.

HERERA: Right.

KILDUFF: The northern hemisphere winter should support things. These low
prices should have a stimulative effect on most of the global economy.
It`s going to help the consumer.

One silver lining for consumers going into the holiday here is that even
the stock portfolios are down, here in New Jersey, you`re going to see
gasoline down around $2.25 a gallon potentially.

HERERA: Right.

KILDUFF: So, that`s going to be a big morale boost. But we`re at $53,
Sue. I can`t see us going much lower than $48 and maybe they`ll be some
efforts by OPEC to stabilize things.

HERERA: We will see. John, thank you as always.

GRIFFETH: Thanks, John.

KILDUFF: Thank you.

HERERA: John Kilduff with Again Capital.

GRIFFETH: There is talk of another healthcare tie-up and that`s where we
begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

Pharmacy chain Walgreens and insurance giant Humana (NYSE:HUM) are
reportedly in preliminary discussions to take equity stakes in each other.
According to the “Wall Street Journal”, the talks are still in the early
stages. But obviously, both companies face competition from the merger of
CVS (NYSE:CVS) Health and Aetna (NYSE:AET). That deal is expected to close
just after Thanksgiving. Walgreens fell more than 2 percent today, while
Humana (NYSE:HUM) was down 1 percent.

Campbell`s Soup reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat
estimates. The CEO said that he is starting to see improved demand for its
soups and return to sales growth in its V8 drink unit as well. The company
faces a key shareholder vote on the makeup of its board next week. Shares
jumped more than 5 percent today to $40.55.

And the trade war between the U.S. and China increasing cost for medical
device maker Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) but the company today was able to report
a double digit increase in earnings for the most recent quarter and
maintain its profit forecast for the year. Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) shares
rose just about 2 percent today to $92.16.

HERERA: After the bell, BJ`s Wholesale reported an overall revenue miss
even as it grew its same store sales. The discount warehouse chain did
however top earnings expectations and it lifted its outlook for the full
year. Shares were initially higher in after-hours, but they finished the
regular day down 1 percent to $19.83.

And also out after the bell, Foot Locker reported improved margins and
earnings that were better than expected. The shoe retailer also grew same
store sales and said it`s well-positioned to deliver a strong holiday
quarter. Investors liked what they heard and Foot Locker shares initially
jumped in after-hours but they finished the regular day down more than 5
percent to $46.09.

GRIFFETH: Coming up, even during big selloffs, there are pockets of
strength and we figure out where they are, next.


HERERA: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has reportedly made a bid for Disney`s 22
regional sports networks. Disney (NYSE:DIS) is required to divest those
networks as part of its nearly $72 billion deal to acquire assets from 21st
Century Fox. CNBC says Amazon`s bid includes New York-based Yes Network,
which broadcast the New York Yankees games. The retailer faces a lot of
competition however. Apollo Global Management, KKR (NYSE:KKR), the
Blackstone Group, Sinclair Broadcast Group (NASDAQ:SBGI) and Tegna are all
said to have made first round bids.

GRIFFETH: Well, even the selling on Wall Street intensified today, our
next guest says he is still finding pockets of strength in this volatile

Joining us tonight, Cole Smead is managing director and portfolio manager
at Smead Capital Management.

Cole, good to you see again. Welcome back.

Thank you.

GRIFFETH: I`m going to guess that you`re not looking to technology just
yet, right?

SMEAD: That — no, we`re pretty early on in this, Bill. Where the
frustration of the market over the last six weeks has been, is like you
said, in technology. Using Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as an example, you talked
about the couple of price target cuts that just came. What we are dealing
on in this mania that we`re coming off of in technology is what I`ll call
death by a thousand price target cuts.


SMEAD: It`s going to be torturous. It`s probably going to be longer, just
like the growth era that we built up to this peak in these names was a
pretty elongated period for stocks.

HERERA: So, you are looking to Main Street. And you gave us three stock
picks you like. One of which is Discovery, reality television. Why?

SMEAD: Well, it`s a great question. So, here I am sitting with you guys.
I am an unpaid actor for NBC. And this is a great thing for me because I
get to sit here and tell what you I think, but you guys don`t pay me.

The reality television is very profitable because it`s everyday people on
the shows, you pay Chip and Joanna Gains to run the show and be the
anchors, just like you and Bill are doing, but everyone coming in contact
with the show outside of that is free or cheap, and there`s no script
writers needed for the content.

So, it`s just — it`s a very low cost and can you make a lot of money with
that today compared to scripts.

GRIFFETH: But you also like banking. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is your
pick in this case.


GRIFFETH: But, you know, rates are going up, and I know that that`s
supposed to be a positive for banks. But they haven`t — the stocks
themselves have not responded. So, why do you like them necessarily?

SMEAD: Well, yes, to your point, Bill, people are very nervous on the
economy. That, you know, are we late stage has been the biggest debate
going on in the last three to six months. Warren Buffett has been saying
that we are in the sixth inning and the big hitters are coming to the
plate. And Jamie Dimon saying 4 percent on the 10-year treasury yelled.

If we are going where those very smart gentlemen have laid out, the economy
is not the thing to worry about. But in the interim, Bank of America
(NYSE:BAC) is an outlet for fear over the economy, much like the
homebuilders have been.

One of the other names I mentioned there was NVR (NYSE:NVR). People are
nervous on the economy. I think the bigger risk is that the economy is
going to do great and that stock and also like you talked about earlier,
bond markets do poorly in the same time that stock markets do poorly.

GRIFFETH: All right. Cole Smead with Smead Capital — it`s always good to
see you. Thanks for your ideas tonight.

SMEAD: Thank you so much guys.

GRIFFETH: You bet.

HERERA: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos is giving more than $97
million in grants to 24 non-profit organizations that help homeless
families. These are the first donations to come from Bezos $2 billion day
one fund. The 24 organizations that were given the award serve communities
in 16 states and the capital.

GRIFFETH: All right. Before we go, one final look at the day on Wall
Street. They`re still looking for a bottom in this market. The Dow fell
another 551 points today. The Nasdaq was down 119. And the S&P dropped by
48. The Dow and S&P now negative for the year.

HERERA: And it`s a holiday shortened week. So, we`ll see. Stay tuned.

That does it for us tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.

GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great evening. Sleep well. We`ll
see you tomorrow.

HERERA: Right.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at The program is transcribed by ASC Services II
Media, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views
of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
(c) 2018 CNBC, Inc.


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