Transcript: Nightly Business Report – November 2, 2018

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Bill Griffeth and Sue

messages from the White House upon a trade agreement with China keeping
investors guessing and send stocks all over the place.

Wage growth accelerates at its fastest pace in nearly a decade. Now, it`s
the Fed`s turn.

HERERA: Shipping and handling. No one ever said logistics was sexy, but
it is lucrative for one entrepreneur who had the “Bright Idea” to ship
packages at a lower cost around the world.

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday,
November 2nd.

GRIFFETH: And we do bid you good evening, everybody, and welcome. You
know, when the White House speaks on trade, the market listens. That`s
exactly what happened today.

However, mixed signals from the president and his top economic adviser
caused the Dow to zig and zag all day. Stocks were sharply higher
overnight on a Bloomberg report that said President Trump asked officials
to prepare a draft for U.S.-China trade deal.

But at midday, a White House adviser threw cold water on that.


movement to deal with trade. We are doing a normal routine run through of
things that we`ve already put together and normal preparations. OK, there
is no mass movement, no huge thing. We are not on the cusp of a deal.


GRIFFETH: And stocks fell sharply on that comment only to reverse course a
short time later when the president said the two countries are getting


with China. We`re getting much closer to doing something. They very much
want to make a deal. I think we`ll make a deal with China and I think it
will be a fair deal for everybody. But it will be a good deal for the
United States.


GRIFFETH: And that lifted stocks off their lows. When it`s all said and
done, the Dow was down 109 points. It had been down as many as 300 points
at the lows of the day. The Nasdaq fell by 77. The S&P 500 slipped by 17.

Now, in addition to the confusing comments, Wall Street had to teal with a
sharp decline in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares. And a strong jobs report that
showed accelerating wage growth. It all added up to a head-spinning day.

And Bob Pisani witnessed it all from the New York Stock Exchange.


rally that quickly faded on this Friday. The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq
all snapping three-day win streaks.

So, what happened? Investors were focused on three key drivers of
sentiment: trade wars, jobs report and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). First, the
markets got a lift from high hopes on trade between President Trump and
Chinese President Xi Jinping were going well. And there were reports of a
possible deal being drawn up. But all that action fizzled out after
several officials including top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said there
was no imminent deal.

But then the markets lifted off their lows late in the day when the
president himself said they were getting closer to a deal. So, which is
it? We don`t know.

Add to that, a strong jobs report showing wages grew at the fastest pace in
nine years, up 3.1 percent year over year. That`s in bond yield spiking
and fueled further worries about a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Wage
is rising at a faster cliff means the Fed might be boxed in and forced to
raise rates in December on perhaps more than two or three times next year.

Tech led losses in a big way today, of course, thanks to Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL). Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) tumbled 7 percent after the earnings
boat. But iPhone shipments missed the mark and the company said it would
no longer break out product sales for iPhones, iPads or MacBooks.

Now, that marks a major change in its reporting structure as Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) transitions from being a big hardware player to more of a
services business. Now, that really led to a mega cap decline in tech as I
call it. Not only Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) but also Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT),
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) parent
Alphabet all tumbling on a day. Keep in mind, these five mega cap stocks
make up about half of the Nasdaq 100. That`s how big they are.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.


HERERA: And as Bob just mentioned, it is payday in America. Not only did
the jobs market heat up last month but wage growth accelerated after years
of stagnant paychecks. The economy added 250,000 jobs, easily exceeding
the expectations. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. That
is a 49-year low.

Wages were the big story. Year over year, they rose 3.1 percent, the
biggest annual gain for average hourly earnings since 2009. And the labor
force participation rate rose to 62.9 percent. And October marked the 97th
consecutive month of job growth, extending an already record breaking

GRIFFETH: Well, let`s turn now to Anthony Chan for more analysis on this
strong jobs report. He`s chief economist at Chase.

Always good to see you, Anthony. Thanks for joining us tonight.


GRIFFETH: Is this what a goldilocks economy looks like? Is that what
we`re describing here?

CHAN: Well, I think it`s encouraging because we are starting to see wages
ticking up, that`s exactly what we wanted to do for quite some time. Now,
I know there is concern whether there is inflation. But when you look at
the data, what I find is that there is a relationship between the changes
in the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

And so, as you lower the unemployment rate, of course, wages pick up a
little bit. But the relationship is much, much weaker when you look at
changes in the unemployment rate and the overall inflation rate, and that`s
what matters to the Federal Reserve.

HERERA: And I was going to say, what does this mean to the Federal
Reserve? Does it box them into another rate hike in December, or do you
think the economy is chugging along just fine with only moderate inflation?

CHAN: I think that everything that the Federal Reserve has been do getting
the job done. They`ve raised interest rates eight times and I think they
will continue to raise rates once per quarter. There is nothing in the
report that says they should deviate from that path. I think that in
December, they will raise rates one more time and continue well into 2019.

GRIFFETH: Along those lines, you know, Larry Kudlow said today he feels
this is a growth economy with low inflation. And Ed Lazear, it`s
interesting, today, you know, he used to chair George W. Bush`s council of
economic advisers. He sort of did the math along those lines on whether or
not there is inflation in this economy.

Take a listen.


notion of a target rate of about 2 percent. Whether you like that or not,
that`s their target rate. And so if you said, well 2 percent added to the
2.5 percent productivity growth, we would be then saying, gee, we could
afford 4.5 percent wage growth and still not be putting upward pressure on
prices beyond that which the Fed would allow.


GRIFFETH: And that`s the ammo some would use to say that the Fed shouldn`t
be so aggressive in raising rates in the future. What do you think?

CHAN: Well, I think the Fed hasn`t been aggressive at all. And in fact
you did see in the latest quarter, productivity growth in excess of 2
percent. But one of the things you should notice is that we saw the
business investment in the third quarter went down. So, I don`t see any
reason why we`re going to see productivity growth in excess of 2 percent
going into 2019.

If we continue to get two or three percent productivity growth, I`d be the
first person on line to say that there is no concern whatsoever. But I
don`t really see productivity being that strong, especially if we see
business investment slowing down and economic growth slowing down. When
those things happen historically you see productivity slowing down. And
that`s what the Federal Reserve is trying to protect against, the
possibility of inflation.

Last point on that, remember that what the Federal Reserve today influences
or impacts the economy about 18 months into the future.


CHAN: So, what they do today is trying to protect us from something in the

GRIFFETH: Very good. Anthony Chan with Chase — always good to see you.
Thanks again for joining us.

CHAN: My pleasure.

HERERA: Well, the October employment report is the last major economic
report before the midterm elections. And the economy may play an unusual
role when entering the voting both next week.

Ylan Mui explains.


on fire. Two hundred and fifty thousand jobs were created last month. The
unemployment rate stayed at just 3.7 percent, the lowest level in nearly 50
years. And that has voters in Maryland feeing pretty happy with the

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think the economy is good right now and it`s
certainly moving in the right track.

MUI: Every major sector of the economy added jobs last month.
Manufacturing was up 32,000 jobs. Transportation gained 25,000 jobs. And
leisure and hospitality increased by 42,000 jobs.

But will these numbers help Republicans in the midterm elections? A recent
poll by NBC and “The Wall Street Journal” found that voters believe the GOP
is better at managing the economy than Democrats. The president touted the
jobs report on his way to a rally in West Virginia and tweeted that the
numbers are incredible. Keep it going, vote Republican.

Republican sweep I think you may get much more stimulus. If you have
divided government for a norm since the 1940s, you will get a little bit
more of a blocking of the president`s agenda, maybe less stimulus going
into 2020. So, I think a lot more sugar if we get Republican victory on

MUI: But if you think the numbers are a slam dunk for Republicans, think
again. The president`s party typically loses seats in the midterms. And
one new analysis shows the losses are actually bigger as the unemployment
rate falls.

Many political pundits predict that Democrats will control of the House and
economists Heidi Shierholz pointed out the jobless rate has been falling
for a while.

President Obama left office, it was 4.8 percent. It has continued
declining since then. It`s now 3.7 percent, and that`s fantastic for
workers. And the key thing to remember, however, is that no sitting
president gets to take credit for just not messing up an existing positive

MUI: At a polling station in Silver Spring, Maryland, voters we talked to
were torn.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I feel like they are both equally responsible because
economic trends play out over a really long time lines. And so it`s sort
of a combined party effort if you ask me.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don`t think it`s either or. I just — I think it`s
working together to make things work out for the community and the people.

MUI: With just a few days left to go before the election, both parties
claim they hold the key to a strong economy.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Ylan Mui in Washington.


GRIFFETH: Now to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and that sharp decline in the stock
that we mentioned earlier today. A number of analysts expressed their
concern over the company`s new reporting structure that will no longer
break out sales figures by-product category. Jeffrey said that decision
is, quote, fueling fears that the company has something to hide.

Nomura said, quote, it raises the specter of a sustained iPhone downturn.
And Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)/Merrill Lynch said it expects to see
additional negative estimate revisions. Well, that sent the stock down 6.5
percent today, making it the worst performing stock in the Dow.

HERERA: The two best performing stocks today were Exxon and Chevron
(NYSE:CVX). Those companies blew past earnings estimates and thanks to
higher oil prices, both delivered their strongest third quarter results in
four years. Investors were pleased, sending the stock higher in trading
today. But those rising oil prices that helped deliver a strong quarter
are also leaving behind a lot of questions.

Jackie DeAngelis has more.


surging in America`s biggest oil companies. Exxon and Chevron (NYSE:CVX)
were able to ride the wave of higher oil prices and better refining
margins. Exxon`s oil and natural gas outputs surpassed expectations for
the first time in 10 quarters. Chevron`s profits doubled, thanks to record
production and a sharp increase in output from the red hot Permian basin.

That strong production helped them crank out cash. Their strongest quarter
for cash generation since the slumping crude prices back in 2014. Oil
prices were in the mid-70s in October because of supply and demand. They
were stabilizing. Many thought the premium was warranted since the
Iranians were likely to export less come sanction time, set to go into
effect in two days.

But more recently, there`s been a change in tone. Oil prices have fallen
dramatically, about 15 percent the past month. The new thinking is that
Iranian exports may not fall as fast as expected. Add to that, stock
market uncertainty and the potential for slowing demand and oil is now in
the low 60s.

That could set off a chain reaction within the industry. Lower oil prices
mean companies like Exxon and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) produce less, reversing
the surge in production that we saw in the most recent quarter that led to
much stronger than expected results, because drilling can`t continue if it
becomes less profitable. And as go oil prices, so may future quarters for
Exxon and Chevron (NYSE:CVX).



GRIFFETH: Time to look now at some of the upgrades and downgrades.

We begin with shares of UPS tonight. That was downgraded to neutral from
buy at Citi. The analyst cites the potential for new tariffs in January
which could hurt the volumes in the first half of next year. Price target
now $115, the lowest on Wall Street by the way. That stock fell more than
1 percent to $105.99.

Kraft (NYSE:KFT) Heinz was downgraded to negative from neutral at
Susquehanna. The analyst cited less confidence in management and said
downward earning revisions are likely. The price target now, $47. The
stock fell 9 percent to $50.73.

And Michael Kors was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS. The analyst
company cited the strong brands. Price target: $80. That stock rose 1.5
percent today to $58.29.

HERERA: Still ahead, help wanted. The construction industry is booming.
But where are all of the builders?


HERERA: The construction industry added 30,000 jobs last month. That was
one of the biggest drivers of that strong employment report. But even with
the latest gains, the industry is still facing labor shortages with
thousands of positions left unfilled.

Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG) is in Baltimore for us tonight.


industry is booming, adding some 330,000 jobs this year alone. But experts
say there are still nearly half a million open jobs waiting to be filled.

These big numbers mean big opportunities for Baltimore`s Eugene Jowers.

After completing a local program called Project Jump Start that trains and
places Baltimore residents in construction jobs, Jowers works in a job he
enjoys that pays well.

and training that you can start getting paid at a higher level. So my pay
is I get paid a good enough amount to where I can provide for my family and
still have a little pocket change, you know, to run around.

ROGERS: The industry is attempting to find more employees like Jowers
letting workers with and without college degrees know that jobs are
available and careers can be promising.

come into our industry — the beautiful thing is we will teach you, the
trade that you want to learn. And we will pay you while you do that. And
when you graduate from that competency base or time based apprenticeship
program, you`ll be making a great living.

ROGERS: But a skilled worker shortage is hitting home for small business
owner Larry Lopez. His company Green Jobworks in Baltimore needs 20
skilled worker, a challenge for any employer in a increasing tight labor
market. Lopez is trying to attract talent with benefits like paid time off
and health insurance. His workers are also employees, not contractors.

customer if you do not, you know, take ownership to the people that work
for you? It`s critical if we want to be successful in the industry.

ROGERS: In this employees market, Jowers is two years in with an eye to
his future.

JOWERS: Since I`ve been in construction, I think I want to be a
superintendent. I think I like running the sites.

ROGERS: Building a future in an industry looking for workers.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kate Rogers (NYSE:ROG) in Baltimore.


HERERA: Alibaba blames an uncertain economy for its weak outlook. And
that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market focus”.

The Chinese ecommerce company cut its full year revenue forecast. Alibaba
says the trade war and slowing economy could hit sales of consumer durable
goods, but that other services will be affected not quite as much. So,
shares of Alibaba fell about 2 percent to $147.59.

Newell Brands topped profit expectations and raised its full-year outlook.
The maker of Sharpies and Elmer`s Glue said it was able to offset tariffs
by returning production of some goods back to the U.S. It negotiated
exemptions and also it raised prices. Shares rose more than 14 percent to

GRIFFETH: VeriSign (NASDAQ:VRSN) has entered into an agreement with the
Department of Commerce that allows that company to increase wholesale
prices for dotcom domain names. That pricing power sent the stock to an
18-year high. Shares popped by 17 percent to $165.02 today.

And Walmart has filed a lawsuit against Synchrony Financial. They did that
late last night, alleging breach of contract. Synchrony was Walmart`s
exclusive credit card issuer for the last 20 years until the retailer
replaced them with Capital One over the summer.

In this new lawsuit, Walmart alleges that synchrony`s underwriting
standards caused Walmart financial harm and it is seeking $800 million in
damages. Synchrony calls the complaint baseless.

Synchrony shares fell more than 9 percent today to $26.43. Shares of
Walmart rose a fraction to $101.34.

HERERA: And now to our market monitor who likes dividend paying stocks
that he said should benefit from consumer spending. The last time he was
on in April, he recommended three ETFs. The S&P aerospace, which is up 2
percent, the spider S&P capital market ETF, which is down 10 percent. And
the iShares North America tech software ETF which is 7 percent higher.

Joining us is Mark Luschini, who is the investment strategist at Janney
Montgomery Scott.

Good to see you again, Mark. Welcome back.

Thanks, Sue.

HERERA: Let`s start with your first one, Carnival (NYSE:CCL) as in the
cruise line. It has a pretty nice yield.

LUSCHINI: It does. It has above a three handle yield which I think is
still compelling — appealing, that is, even as we see this bump in
interest rates recently, but particularly when compared to the S&P 500 at
less than 2 percent. It`s benefitting from flows of traffic, the baby
boomers and millennials that are flush with cash or seeing wages increasing
like you talked about in most of the segment here today and are looking for
experiences and, you know, chances to get away from the hustle and bustle
and carnival is I think a good name with a healthy dividend. And I think
in a good position to take advantage of that.

GRIFFETH: Tapestry, the old — used to be called Coach (NYSE:COH), of
course. I haven`t often thought of it as a dividend play, but it has 3
percent yield right now, and it had an up and down year on the stock market
as well. Why do you like it here?

LUSCHINI: Well, Bill, of course, it`s a discretionary stock and that space
has been buffeted by a bunch of issues over the course of the year. But
the fact of the matter is, it`s an aspirational purchase brand in the form
of Coach (NYSE:COH), recently bought Versace to continue to build out its
portfolio of offerings. And again, I think because the consumer continues
to win by way of seeing wage gains, they have confidence in their jobs.
Feel good about what the future looks like through confidence surveys all
leads me to believe that consumption is going to remain a positive impulse
for the U.S. economy and they`re going to stand to benefit from the same

HERERA: And I would assume if that is correct that our next pick Walmart
would do the same.

LUSCHINI: Yes, besides the prospective wind fall from their lawsuit that
you just talked about, I still think, of course, they are a retail giant,
general merchandiser competing very effectively by the way against Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) by way of their ecommerce initiative, which is big and fast
growing. And therefore, I think is well-positioned to address the consumer
needs from those fluent to less affluent alike.

HERERA: On that note, Mark, thank you so much.

LUSCHINI: You`re welcome, Sue.

HERERA: Mark Luschini with Janney Montgomery Scott, and as always, to read
more about mark`s picks, you can head to our website which is

GRIFFETH: Coming up, one entrepreneur`s “Bright Idea” that let to
fulfillment for his customers and for himself.


GRIFFETH: Toyota (NYSE:TM) is recalling more than 1 million vehicles on
concerns that the air bags may inflate without a crash or fail to work if
there is an accident. In the U.S., that recall applies to about 17,000
Scion XA car models for the years 2004 through 2006. Additional models
have been recalled in Japan and Europe.

HERERA: Do you ever wonder where all that stuff that you boy online is
kept or thousand gets shipped?

A lot of companies get helped by outsourcing. With an ecommerce boom
driving growth, third party logistics is worth almost $200 billion in the
U.S. alone. And that is why one entrepreneur from New York City got the
“Bright Idea” to help other companies make sure their products get from
here to there.


HERERA: Rafael Zakinov began selling high-end surplus watches and jewelry
working his way through college in 2009. He discounted prices and sold
online through Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) and others out of
an apartment in Queens.

a warehouse and the bedroom was a warehouse.

HERERA: As he filled the apartment with 10,000 items, Zakinov e began to
notice price differences between the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and eBays telling
friends and family running similar business that is they often paid too

ZAKINOV: I saw that they are really missing an opportunity to selling
elsewhere where the margins were better. None of them wanted to handle the
logistics or space was too expensive.

HERERA: A burgeoning ecommerce boom meant thousands of small businesses
needed help with storage, packaging, labeling and shipping.

ZAKINOV: I started calling up friends and it was like, hey, instead of you
sending everything to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), send me it, I`ll send half to
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), we`ll ill keep half and take back and ship it as the
orders come in.

HERERA: Starting in 2011, his company Ruby has Fulfillment, outgrew the
apartment and office space and a warehouse. By 2014, it was handling a
couple thousand orders a day. And Ruby took its conveyor systems and
shelving to a warehouse on Long Island.

On average, the company says customers save 45 percent on freight and if
you think Ruby`s warehouse looks like an Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) fulfillment
center — well, that`s no accident.

ZAKINOV: We had to do everything right. And we had to do it the way
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) would do it, just a much smaller scale. We have
clients today that have distribution centers 10 times our size where that
distribution center can`t handle the direct to consumer needs.

HERERA: In fact, Ruby handles some orders from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). But
one thing Ruby offers that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) doesn`t is the ability to
use a customers branded packaging.

ZAKINOV: There is a lot of companies that can say they can do the branding
but not in scale, right? As soon as you start doing a thousand orders a
day what we see is they break down on scale.

CHRIS WICHERT, KOIO CO-CEO AND CO-FOUNDER: I don`t want it to be like a
third party brand.

HERERA: Chris Wichert started his high end sneaker brand Koio in a
Brooklyn apartment three years ago. Now, Koio he stores in New York,
Chicago and Los Angeles. But 60 percent of its business happens online,
when Wichert signed on with Ruby this year, they realized some of his
inventory lacked the bar codes needed for automated processing.

WICHERT: They discovered the problem and without sending them back or
ignoring the problem they would print bar codes themselves and label them
and get them into the system so that nothing is lost.

HERERA: Now with almost 200 clients and revenue of more than $17 million a
year, Rube Has has added warehouses in Las Vegas and New Jersey, with plans
to expand further in 2009. Aiming to keep delivery times down to the two
to three days consumers expect and businesses depend on.

ZAKINOV: You can literally deploy those dollars in products, marketing,
staffing, right. Things that actually help them grow the business.
Getting a new forklift isn`t going to add their top line or the bottom


HERERA: And Ruby Has now has more than 200 employees and looking to expand
not only here at home but internationally possibly into Canada and Europe
in the near future.

GRIFFETH: One more look at the day on Wall Street. Kind of a mixed day.
The Dow down 109 points, was down 300. Nasdaq fell 77. The S&P was down

HERERA: And that will do it for us tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for watching.

GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great weekend, everybody. We`ll see
you Monday.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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Media, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views
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Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
(c) 2018 CNBC, Inc.


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