Nightly Business Report – October 12, 2018

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Bill Griffeth and Sue

selloff and a jolt of volatility left head spinning. So, what happens next
and what money moves should you consider making?

are in from J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citi. But it`s what
they are saying about the economy, interest rates and trade that`s getting
all the attention.

HERERA: The new subprime. No down payment, low interest home loans.
Sound familiar? They`re back and they have the support of a major bank.

Those stories and much more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday,
October 12th.

GRIFFETH: And we do bid you good evening, everybody. And welcome.

That was interesting, wasn`t it? I mean, for many, it was a stomach
churning week on Wall Street that ended today with gains. That allowed
investors to take a much needed breathe and digest what had happened over
the past two days. The sharp drop in the Dow, 800 points Wednesday, 500
points Thursday, was certainly the talk of investors around the world
because the selling was sharp and swift and it was unclear when it would

But today, the selling did end, at least for now. The Dow climbed by 287
points to 25,339. The Nasdaq was up 167. The S&P gained 38.

And look at the losses for the week. It was the biggest weekly decline for
stocks since late March. And what a five days it was.


GRIFFETH: The signs were there. Trade tensions and that sinking feeling
about U.S./China relations. Tech stocks, the high flyers losing altitude.
Bond yields at seven year highs and a Fed determined to hike interest

Stocks came out swinging on Monday, down 200 early on and then up in the
afternoon. Ultimately, the Dow finished up only slightly. On Tuesday,
interest rates took center stage. Autos and homes have been getting more
expensive. Thirty-year mortgage rates touched five percent for the first
time in eight years.

Stocks drifted lower. Late in the day, President Trump weighed in on the
Fed`s rate hikes.

think is necessary, but I don`t like what they`re doing.

GRIFFETH: On Wednesday, the president continued.

TRUMP: I think the Fed has gone crazy.

GRIFFETH: He also said the Fed is going loco and stocks went loco, their
biggest decline in eight months. The Dow falling more than 800 points.

And Thursday —

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The red arrows are back and they`re back with the
vengeance too.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Dow down about 2 percent as we approached to close.

GRIFFETH: Down more than 500 points for a two-day decline of 1,300 points.
Three quarters of the S&P 500 touched correction territory, down at least
10 percent.

And finally, today, more volatility, a bounce higher, up more than 400
points but then down briefly. Finally, then, up more than 280 points.


HERERA: So, let`s turn now to Jason Draho to talk about what`s next for
this market and what moves you should be making, if any, in your portfolio.
He is head of America`s asset allocations at UBS global wealth.

Welcome, Jason. Nice to have you here.

JASON DRAHO, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH: It`s good to be here.

HERERA: You know, even for the pros on Wall Street, this was a day and a
week, as Bill just outlined in his package, that really had heads spinning.
So, for the average investor, what`s your best advice on how to really
weather what looks like it is going to be quite a volatile period?

DRAHO: Well, the preceding story could have alluded to two factors that
had caused this, you know, the market gyrations this week. One was a move
higher in interest rates and the other is trade.

But when we look at what is happening over the past week, this feels very
reminiscent of what happened earlier this year, back in January and
February, where this was a correction similar to this, it took a couple of
months for the market to stabilize and then they kind of continue to move
higher. I think the reason that happened before was because the economic
fundamentals in the U.S. were very solid. In the U.S. right now, that`s
still the case.

Nothing over the past two weeks suggests that the economy has gotten worse.
In fact, the economic data from last Friday and the jobs numbers over the
past few days in inflation suggests the U.S. economy is doing very well at
this point in time. That gives us confidence to suggest once you get
through gyrations, the bull market should continue.

GRIFFETH: There are a lot of people are watching who invest for income,
whether it`s a fixed income portfolio or in equities of some kind. But
rates are rising, and that`s causing stock prices to go down.

What`s the average investor to do with that kind of scenario, do you think?

DRAHO: Well, the rate rise has given investors who have invested in fixed
income securities a chance to invest at higher yields and higher returns.
But for the stock market anytime you have a large move in interest rates
like we have seen in the last couple of months, it takes a little bit time
for the market to digest this, to adjust and to sort of reset. So, I think
for investors the way we think of it, this is an opportunity perhaps to
actually add back to equity market risk.

Even if you`re looking for income, there are opportunities in dividend-
paying stocks and the correction has actually given an opportunity to
reduce valuations and make it a little more attractive in certain segments
of the market.

HERERA: Should investors, very quickly, Jason, prepare for more
volatility? For those who are not the pros on Wall Street, for those who
are sitting and watching this program at home and saying, I don`t know
what`s coming next, what should they do?

DRAHO: Well, I think we are at a stage in the economic cycle where we will
get these kind of periodic bugs of volatility in the market. I think one
of the best ways investors can deal with this and not be overcome by the
emotions and sort of react too quickly and maybe want to sell or buy when
they shouldn`t is to make sure they have clear long term goals and think
about their portfolios to achieve different objectives.

So, one example is to have a portfolio for liquidity needs. Make sure it
covers your all expenses and cash flow needs for the next, say, three
years, and invest in a safe and short cash or fixed income assets. It has
very little risk to that. And then think another segment of your portfolio
investing for the long term for your retirement needs, for kids` education
and things of that sort. And that segment of their portfolio, you can
invest in equities and other riskier assets.

That way, by segmenting this way, when you get draw downs and market
crashes we have seen over the past week, it`s confined to your longevity
portfolio, and you don`t have to worry about attaching your short term kind
of cash flow needs. And we find with our investors when they take this
approach to sort of divide that way, it helps them ride through these
periods of volatility much more easily and they make sort of emotional

HERERA: Very good advice.

DRAHO: So, that`s kind of one thing I think investors are going to try to

HERERA: Jason, thank you. Jason Draho with UBS Global Wealth.

DRAHO: My pleasure.

GRIFFETH: Well, earnings season did get underway in earnest today. And as
we`ve been reporting, this season is shaping up to be a bit more
complicated given the extreme market volatility and issues like rising
rates, higher raw material costs and trade tariffs. Today, J.P. Morgan,
Citi and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) started us off, three companies from one of
the market`s biggest and most critical sectors.

Leslie Picker has our results tonight.


volatility this week, investors today were focused on the third quarter
earnings from the three large banks for clues about what their results say
about the economy, interest rates and lending as a whole.

J.P. Morgan beat analyst estimates while Citi and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)
posted mixed numbers relative to Wall Street consensus. On a call with
analyst, J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and CFO Marianne Lake spoke
optimistically about the firm and the economy. And J.P. Morgan`s results
seem to support that.

As one analyst wrote this morning, quote, always tough to call the end of
the cycle, but there is no evidence of the end in J.P. Morgan`s results.
On the analyst called, Dimon was brushing off concerns about rising
interest rates, saying that investors need to look at the reasons why rates
are rising and not just the fact that they are rising.

JAMIE DIMON, CEO, JPMORGAN: The why is more important. Are you still
growing? The economy is strong. Rates are going up.

Most of us consider it a healthy normalization and going back to more of a
free market when it comes to asset pricing and interest rates, et cetera.
And we need that. So, to me, overall, it is a good thing particularly
because the economy. And so, I do expect rates will continue to go up.

PICKER: On the media call, Dimon highlighted specific risks including
Brexit, trade, reversal of QE, and international tensions in Italy, Turkey,
Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Dimon called these headwinds, quote,
geopolitical issues bursting all over the place, but said he didn`t think
they would derail the U.S. economy.

Both Citi and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) have been focused on their own plans
to bring down expenses but also showed through their own earnings that the
rising interest rate environment is benefitting their bottom line. Rising
interest rates can help banks because it allows them to earn more on
interest on the loans they make. But there is a point in the cycle where
banks no longer benefit when consumers and businesses stop taking out as
many loans as they were before.

Analysts and investors don`t see evidence of that quite yet, at least based
on the reports from the first three major U.S. banks to share their third
quarter results.



HERERA: The treasury secretary today said he is not concerned about the
sharp pullback in the market this week, simply because the economy is so


STEVEN MNUCHIN, TREASURY SECRETARY: I think the fundamentals are still
very strong. The U.S. economy is strong. The U.S. earnings are strong.
So, I see this is just a natural correction after the markets were up a

There`s really no new information in the market on the Fed or on trade, for
that matter. So I really see this as a reaction of markets tending to go
too far in both directions and they have natural corrections.


HERERA: The treasury secretary also said that the White House respects the
independence of the Federal Reserve and that when the president criticized
the central bank this week, he was just expressing his concern about
interest rates rising too quickly.

GRIFFETH: Well, one of the things that is working in the market`s favor
are the buybacks by corporations. Here`s why. Buybacks occur when the
company repurchases stock, obviously. That reduces the number of
outstanding shares and could potentially increase earnings per share.

Well, a large number of buybacks are expected and that could be good for
the broader market.

Bob Pisani has details.


of the big stories supporting the markets this year. Data track estimates
that in the last 12 months, the companies in the S&P 500 have repurchased
$646 billion of their own stock, that`s about 30 percent more than the year
before. And there is plenty of dry powder that is left.

One firm told me there is at least $350 billion in unused buybacks just
waiting to be put back to work. More than 300 large cap companies have
active buybacks programs, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amgen
(NASDAQ:AMGN), Visa (NYSE:V), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Google
(NASDAQ:GOOG), many more. Contrary to popular belief, companies can
buyback stocks during the blackout periods into period jut before their
earnings are released, providing companies have set up a plan to buy back
stocks on a regular defined basis.

Now, there are certain restrictions like not being able to buy in the last
10 minutes of trading.

Corporations typically seek to buyback a certain amount of the dollar value
of their stock on a daily basis. So, with prices down, corporations can
buy back more stock and may get more aggressive.

So, when is this going to end? When will companies stop buying back

Right now, they are generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. Unless
companies can find an attractive use for all that excess cash, dividends
for example and M&A does compete with buybacks, I`m betting companies will
still funnel the majority of their excess cash to buybacks.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.


HERERA: It is time to take a look at some of today`s upgrades and

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at
Macquarie. The analyst cites the company`s earnings power and the decline
in the stock price this week. The price target is $121. Microsoft
(NASDAQ:MSFT) shares rose 3 percent to $109.57.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi. The
analyst cites the strong fundamentals and recent pullback. Netflix
(NASDAQ:NFLX) reports earnings on Tuesday. The price target is $375. The
shares rose more than 5 percent to $339.56.

GRIFFETH: Square was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord. The analyst
there says the company is well run and sees long term potential. Price
target now $90. Shares of Square popped by 7 percent today to $73.97.

Estee lauder was downgraded to neutral with the analyst citing concerns
about the impact with the analyst citing concerns about the impact of the
U.S. trade dispute with China on Estee Lauder`s business. Price target,
$138. Estee Lauder shares fell one percent to $126.32.

HERERA: Still ahead, three stock picks a market monitor says you should
buy and hold to get you through these volatile times.


GRIFFETH: While emergency crews searched through the rubble left in
Hurricane Michael`s deadly path, analysts are starting to do what they do
after natural disasters and that is tally the damage. One early estimate
puts the cost at $8 billion. Others though say that figure could still

The storm left a trail of destruction, as you know, stretching from Florida
to Virginia. Mexico Beach and the Florida panhandle, for example, was one
of the hardest hit areas, with entire blocks of home just obliterated.
Overall, more than one million residents remain without power.

HERERA: Back to the market and the economy now where interest rates and
wild market swings aren`t just being talked about on Wall Street but across
the country.

And tonight, Brian Sullivan spoke to a businessman in Houston to get his
view on borrowing, the consumer and the state of the American economy.


market volatility and interest rates on the rise, there has been a lot of
questions about whether or not the market, either the stock market or bond
market is telling a negative story about the American economy. Will the
U.S. economy slow down because of rising rates? Is the economy headed into
some kind of recession perhaps next year?

A lot of speculation. The best thing to do is go right to the source of
the consumer and that is speaking with Tilman Fertitta. He`s the chairman
and CEO of Landry`s. They`re one of the biggest privately held companies
in the world, own more than 600 restaurants, a bunch of casinos as well as
the Houston Rockets.

And we asked him. Are you seeing any slow down in the consumer at your
restaurants or hotels?

TILMAN FERTITTA, HOUSTON ROCKETS OWNER: The consumer is out there spending
money. What you are seeing in the stock market the last couple of days is
just little corrections that you have to have when the market is up 300
percent in the last eight years.

So, they are out there. They are gambling. They are buying cars and
they`re buying food. Nobody worry about a thing. The economy, all the
catalysts that make the economy strong are still there. It`s going to be
good for a good while.

SULLIVAN: So, Fertitta is not seeing a slow down yet but he does caution
that as a builder, and he built the hotel that we are sitting in right now,
interest rates certainly as they rise do matter especially if you are
spending a couple hundred million dollars on a development.

FERTITTA: When you start talking about a hundred million dollars, 1
percent is a bunch of money. It definitely has an effect. And that`s why
America has grown and capitalism in America has been so great in the last
few years because interest rates have been low. Let`s not screw it up and
raise them too fast.

SULLIVAN: He`s optimistic obviously but he is cautious about interest
rates. And certainly, when you are building a multimillion dollar hotel,
any kind of rise like Tilman said certainly does matter. So, I think the
idea being the stock market may not necessarily reflect the American
economy right now which by all measures is going very, very strong. But if
rates keep rising and if we see the price of oil, by the way keep rising,
it could be a hit on the U.S. consumer especially in a place like Houston,

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Brian Sullivan, Houston, Texas.


GRIFFETH: Ford sales fell sharply in China, and that is where we begin
tonight`s “Market Focus”.

With the automaker reporting a 43 percent decline in sales in the world`s
largest automobile market in September, It is the third straight month of
declines. Auto sales in China overall dropped the most in nearly seven
years. Analysts say they are concerned the Chinese demand for cars could
contract for the first time in decades as economic growth continues to
slow. Ford shares fell nearly two percent today to $8.64.

PNC Financial today reported a rise in quarterly profit but loan growth was
disappointing. Investors are expected to see lenders, especially regional
banks, like PNC, benefit from higher borrowing by businesses as those firms
take advantage of their new lower tax rate. PNC shares, though, were off
more than five percent to $124.26.

General Electric (NYSE:GE) has delayed the release of its third quarter
results by almost a week. The company says it will give the new CEO Larry
Culp (NYSE:CFI) more time to review its businesses. A J.P. Morgan analysts
argued that the company did not have enough assets or cash flow to pay down
liabilities. Share of GE fell 3 percent today to $12.32.

HERERA: Bristol-Myers blockbuster cancer drug Opdivo was being tested on
lung cancer, but it failed to meet the main goal in the late stage trial.
The study was being done on patients with an aggressive form of the disease
whose condition had relapsed after chemotherapy. Shares were basically
unchanged up a penny to $57.51.

Software company Anaplan soared in its market debut. The CEO said he did
not consider delaying the IPO amid the market rout this week, mostly
because he says the outlet for his business is strong.


FRANK CALDERONI, ANAPLAN CEO: We have almost 1,000 customer customers.
And those customers have been within Anaplan and we`re adding a large new
number of customers on a regular basis. So, I was looking really at the
future of Anaplan and how that can be positioned. I think things worked
out quite well for us over the last two weeks.


HERERA: Anaplan shares soared 42 percent on the first day of trading.
They closed at $24.30.

HERERA: Now to our weekly market monitor who has named the stocks that he
says you want to own for the next three years. Now, the last time he was
with us in April, he recommended Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) which has risen 15
percent since then, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) which is down 8 percent and which is 18 percent higher.

Mark Lehmann is back with us. He`s president of JMP Securities.

Mark, good to see you. Welcome back.


GRIFFETH: Let`s get to the three stocks tonight that are really very
relevant I think.

Upwork is your first stock tonight. A freelancer platform which I guess
would benefit from the tight labor market we see right now. Yes?

LEHMANN: That`s exactly right. It is the best play on the freelance
market. They also are in the highly skilled labor market, which is highly
in demand. And they match talent with companies that need that talent.

And it is a very high growing market as well as an international market.
And given globalization, that is where you want to be. And this is a great
company that recently went public. For the next few years, it is a name
you want to watch.

GRIFFETH: Quickly, not worried about that nine percent decline this year?

LEHMANN: Well, Upwork went public recently, I`m not worried. It`s a new
company. It will be volatile. It`s not a mega company.

But overtime, this is the best player in that space and you`re going to
want to own it because it is the best player.

HERERA: From a tight labor market to a tight housing market, especially on
the entry level, this stock has been hit with the rest of the home builder
stocks. But you like LGI Homes. Why?

LEHMANN: I do. It`s an entry level player in high growth markets in the
south. They are a low cost producer.

We all know that the home building stocks have been hit very hard. This
stock is off 50 percent from its highs. Fundamentals remain intact. There
will be gyrations when wage rise. But I think, overtime, this entry level
market and they`re the best at it, is where you want to participate.
Again, the stock is down 50 percent. I see big upside in the next three

GRIFFETH: Last time you were with us, you liked Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
Tonight, you still like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Why?

LEHMANN: Well, you know, it is up since the last time I recommended it and
down 15 percent from the recent highs. And I think fundamentals haven`t
changed. You have a dominant market share of leader, you have a high
growth building in what they are doing. They are clearly playing the
highest of growth markets. You got a 15 percent off sale recently in the
stock, and you don`t get often the best companies trading for a 15 percent
discount in recent highs. And I think this is just one people are waiting
to add to their portfolios. This is the time.

GRIFFETH: All right. And again, these are recommendations you feel are
good for the next three years or so at that point.


GRIFFETH: Mark Lehmann from JMP Securities, again, thanks for joining us

LEHMANN: Thank you both.

GRIFFETH: And to read more about Mark`s picks, you can head to our website

HERERA: Coming up — potential borrowers with poor credit are being
offered no down payment, low interest rate loans. Sound familiar?


HERERA: Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) issued an update on the security breach. The
company says the hackers stole name and contact details from 29 million
users. That`s less than Facebook`s original estimate of 50 million. The
social media network is cooperating with the FBI which is actively
investigating that attack.

GRIFFETH: There are reports tonight that Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) is going to
file for bankruptcy on Sunday and as part of a deal with lenders, it will
receive an emergency loan of $500 million from a group of banks. And then
according to Dow Jones, the retailer will close all but 300 of its stores,
giving it a smaller, more manageable foot print. Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) was
scheduled to make a major debt payment of $134 million on Monday.

HERERA: Well, you probably remember that after the housing crisis, lenders
tightened up dramatically and did away with those subprime loans that went
to borrowers with low credit scores. But now, there is a new program
appealing to subprime borrowers with offers of no down payments, low
interest rate loans and it`s backed by a very big bank.

Diana Olick is in Miami tonight.


wanted to be the first in line, first to apply for a no down payment, low
interest mortgage at a special four-day event in Miami.

MAGDALENE ALTIDOR, POTENTIAL BORROWER: I did own a home in the past. I
went through foreclosure, and I`m ready to purchase a new home.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No down payment, right?

OLICK: The event is one of several being held in cities across America
this year run by non-profit brokerage Neighborhood Assistance Corporation
of America, or NACA.

BRUCE MARKS, NACA CEO: It`s a national disgrace of the low amount of
homeownership, mortgages, for low and moderate income people and for
minority homebuyers.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The only real solution is to restructure your mortgage,

OLICK: In 2010, Marks and NACA were front and center during the
foreclosure crisis, holding mass mortgage modification events across the
country with banks and servicers. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) was there

And Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is here now, backing NACA`s homeownership
drive with $10 billion in mortgage commitments.

Do you see any risk to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)?

AJ BARKLEY, BANK OF AMERICA SVP: No, it was all upside. We have seen
significant wins in this partnership. I mean, just to be clear, when we
get those loans with the heavy lifting that the team does here, we are over
90 percent approval.

OLICK: Borrowers can have low credit scores but have to go through an
education session about the program and submit all necessary documents from
income statements to phone bills. Then they go through counseling to
understand their monthly budget and ensure that they can afford the
mortgage payments. The loans are 15 or 30-year fixed with interest rates
below market about 4.5 percent.

MARKS: That`s what`s going to help people who have been locked out of
homeownership to really become homeowners into (INAUDIBLE)

OLICK: Critics of the program argue that with no down payment, no skin the
game, these borrowers have no reason not to walk away should their homes
lose value. That`s what happened during the financial crisis.

The difference here is that none of them are investors. In order to get
the loan, they have to live in the home.

MARKS: Working people look at their investment as homeownership for their
family, their neighborhood and for themselves.

ALTIDOR: Having a home, 10, 15 years from now, that`s an investment.
Homeownership, freedom.


HERERA: And to read more about subprime mortgages, you always head to our

GRIFFETH: Finally tonight, a piece of American history is up for sale.
The home of John Proctor, he was one of the 19 people executed during the
infamous Salem witch trials in 1692. It`s on the market in Peabody,
Massachusetts, has six bedrooms, two baths and the whole house has been
modernized, as you can see. The asking price is $600,000. However, you
will probably have stiff competition for this because a local historical
society is said to be interested in buying the home and turning it into a
museum. Probably a good idea.

HERERA: Indeed. Favorite story of the day.

Before we go, here is a look at the final day on Wall Street. The Dow
climbed 287 points. Nasdaq up 167. S&P 500 added 38. But for the week,
the major indexes had the worst decline since late March.

What a week.


HERERA: That does it for us tonight. Thanks for joining us. I`m Sue

GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great weekend. See you Monday.


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