Transcript: Nightly Business Report – October 8, 2018

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Bill Griffeth and Sue

saw sharp losses and gains as investors navigate a world with higher
interest rates and rework their portfolios.

company DHL is looking for workers as it enters its busy time of the year.

HERERA: Hot holiday toys. Get your gift list ready. The retailers are
stocking up in the hopes of getting a bigger slice of the toy market now
that Toys “R” Us is gone.

Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Monday,
October 8th.

GRIFFETH: And we do bid you good evening, everybody. And welcome.

It was one of those days when the stock market just couldn`t seem to make
up its mind. The Dow swung between a 200-point decline in the morning and
a nearly 100 point gain in the afternoon. The route in technology shares
continued to deepen and the S&P just kind of floundered during the day.

In the end, the industrial average rose by just 39 points to 26,486, the
Nasdaq fell another 52 points, and the S&P was down just one. The bond
market was closed today for the Columbus Day holiday, but clearly, interest
rates were still on the minds of stock traders following last week`s
dramatic rise in treasury yields.

The question remains, why have yields spiked? Is it because inflation is
soon to be a problem or is it simply because the economy is on solid
footing? And if that`s the case, should equity investors really be as
concerned if it`s for all the right reasons.

Mike Santoli digs into that for us tonight.


stocks can do well as bond yields climb and the Federal Reserve lifts rate
due to strong economic growth, low unemployment and more normal levels of
inflation. And in fact, the ten-year treasury has doubled over the past
two years from a yield of 1.6 percent to 3.2 percent and during that time,
the S&P 500 is up by more than 30 percent.

Yet at this stage three years into a Fed tightening campaign, each fresh
high and bond yield is a test for stock market valuations that are down
from January but remain near the upper end of their long-term range. The
stock market`s priced earnings multiple is as high relative to bond yields,
as it`s been since 2008. For sure, stocks were a good deal more expensive
compared to bonds, for most of the decade before the financial crisis. But
so far during this economic expansion, the market has refused to restore
that premium to stocks.

Higher yields also act as a head wind earnings and corporate investment by
raising the cost of debt. Corporate bond yields are at a 2.5 year high
which pinches heavily indebted companies, including many smaller firms.
And, of course, with yields on safe government bonds exceeding 3 percent,
they start to appear more attractive to investors relative to expected 10-
year stock returns which many strategists argue could be in the mid-single
digits from here.

All of this helps explain why the stock market has stalled out when yields
reach a new high or threshold as investors try to make their peace with a
higher cost of money and look for assurance that rising rates won`t hasten
a slowdown in an economy that`s been seen decelerating a bit heading into
the new year.



HERERA: So what does the rise in rates mean for individual sectors?

Bob Pisani breaks that down.


interest rates has moved the ETF business in a big way in the last few
days. Now, we have seen particularly heavy volume in bond ETFs in the last
week. Treasury ETFs in particular, right across the yield curve, three to
seven year ETF, seven to 10-year, and the 10 to 20-year.

We`ve also seen very heavy volume in the main investment-grade corporate
ETF, that`s the LQD. They`re all hitting new lows, by the way, looking at
stock ETFs. The usual sectors that get hit by higher rates are taking a
beating. We`ve seen new lows for example in the ETFs around emerging
markets, around home builders, around global automobile stocks. And you
can see the gaming stocks which are often highly leveraged and can be very
susceptible to sudden moves in interest rates.

But look carefully and you`ll see that the strong economy is helping other
sectors that might normally, normally suffer under higher rates.

So REITs, real estate investment trusts, this is a classic rate sensitive
sector, they`re down, yes, but they`re not even close to new lows. And
that`s partly because the economy is so strong and sectors that`s real
estate services, health care, storage, apartments, and even hotels, they`re
all doing well. Also note that the high yield ETFs, like HYG, are also
down but they`re not at new lows and for a good reason. Those high yield
ETFs are more tied to the credit cycle than the interest rate cycle and
with the economy being so strong, the risk of default is still fairly low.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.


GRIFFETH: So, with this recent dramatic rise in interest rates, is there a
model portfolio that could benefit from these rising rates?

Michael Jones is with us tonight. He`s chairman of Riverfront Investment
Group. He`s got some ideas on that.

Michael, thanks for joining us tonight.


GRIFFETH: So, if you had to start from scratch as rates rise here, give us
a sense broadly speaking, and this is broadly speaking not just for every
single individual investor out there, what kind of a mix would you see for
stocks to bonds right now?

JONES: Well, I think that mix is changing in response to what`s happening
in the bond market. If you look back over the last ten years, bonds have
been very expensive. Interest rates have been extremely low. They just
haven`t been a good deal.

By the same token, stocks have been very cheap. They`ve been offering
great returns. If you look at our portfolios, we`ve had an overweight to
stocks for 10 to 15 percent for most of the last decade, and we`ve taken
that money out of bonds.

As you look at what`s happening right now with interest rates starting to
rise and equity markets getting high enough that they`re starting to tip
into overvalued territory, now`s a good time to take that extra money that
you`ve been keeping in equities for the last ten years, because it`s the
only thing that made sense was zero interest rates, and start shifting that
back over into the bond market but into very specific sectors of the bond

HERERA: So would you go very short term in terms of bond exposure?

JONES: I think what the market has done is a great favor to investors
because the most attractive space in the bond market right now is the
safest space. Two and three-year treasuries right now are offering yields
of close to 3 percent. If you wanted a yield like that six months ago, you
had to lock your money up for 30 years. You`re now able to get that kind
of return for a two or three-year investment.

And, you know, Bob was talking about high yield bonds. They`re only
yielding 5, 5.5 percent for all the risk of default that you have to take
on when you invest in junk bonds. With treasuries, two-year treasuries
with very little interest rate risk and little credit risk offering 3
percent, now is a good time to shift some of your portfolio from the risky
part of the market into the safest part.

GRIFFETH: And what about equities? I mean, Econ 101 suggests if rising
rates continue, financials are a good place. Is that where you look? And
what about technology? It`s still getting clobbered these days.

JONES: Well, let`s talk about technology first because we`ll get the bad
news over with. I just came back from — I just came back from an extended
due diligence trip into Asia and the undeniable conclusion is that China`s
losing a trade war. What has that got to do with technology?

Well, everyone is now realizing that it`s too risky to source all of your
production from China. I mean, 90 percent of PCs are made in China, 70
percent of phone handsets. And suddenly, you can be denied your products
or have to pay a big tariff on those products if the president of the
United States signs a certain act.


JONES: So what companies are recognizing is they`ve got to diversify out
of China. They`ve got to find new supply sources. They`ve got to build
new supply chains.

That`s incredibly expensive and it`s going to be a pretty big headwind for
tech earnings for the next several years. And that`s why you see —

GRIFFETH: Very quickly, where would you — where would you put the money
then to benefit from rising interest rates?

JONES: That you hit the nail on the head. Banks have had zero interest
rates that they paid on checking accounts and they`ve been able to invest
the money at zero. That`s not very profitable business. They`re now
keeping interest rates that they pay us on our checking accounts close to
zero, but they`re able to invest that cash at 2, 2.5, even 3 percent.
That`s a significant boost to bank profitability that they haven`t had for
the last ten years and it`s going to really help their stock.

I also like financials in the insurance space because after you`ve had a
series of disasters, and it looks like we`re about to have another one
unfortunately in Florida and possibly the Gulf Coast —


JONES: — it is very bad for those stocks short term as they absorb those
losses, but it gives them pricing power for the next year or two that
really helps their earnings and their stock price.

GRIFFETH: Michael Jones with Riverfront Investment Group — again, thanks
for joining us tonight. Appreciate it.

JONES: My pleasure. Thanks.

HERERA: Well, the energy markets are watching what Michael just mentioned,
Hurricane Michael. The intensifying storm is tracking through the energy
producing area of the Gulf of Mexico and it is expected to make landfall
near the Florida panhandle. According to the U.S. Energy (NASDAQ:USEG)
Administration, offshore production in the gulf accounts for 17 percent of
total U.S. crude output. Energy traders were also watching a, quote, major
incident at Canada`s largest refinery in St. John`s, New Brunswick
(NYSE:BC). Today, oil prices settled at about $74 a barrel.

GRIFFETH: And overall, oil prices are up more than 20 percent so far this
year. And that`s pressuring airline stocks because certainly higher fuel
costs cut into profits and perhaps lead to higher airfares.

Phil LeBeau has more on that for us.


the ground crew fueling up your plane before takeoff, remember this, that
fuel is the reason airfares are likely to move higher. Historically
airfares move up or down in tandem with jet fuel, and now that it costs
more to take off, airlines are likely to pass along those higher costs.
Admittedly, fares have been trending lower in recent years, with the
average domestic round trip ticket now costing $217.

But airlines have been able to boost revenue by charging customers to
change reservations, upgrade their seats and check bags. In fact, almost
all of the major airlines have recently raised the cost of checking your
first bag from $25 to $30. That will help airlines offset higher fuel
costs. As will the fact there`s a record number of people flying right
now. Demand is strong.

Historically, airline stocks move higher in the fall in anticipation of a
busy holiday season. We`ll see if that`s the case this year when airlines
start reporting earnings later this week.



HERERA: And rising oil prices are pushing up the price of gasoline.
According to industry analyst, the price of a gallon of gas is up 7 cents
over the past two weeks to $2.97 a gallon. That is 41 cents higher than a
year ago. Los Angeles has the highest price in the contiguous 48 states at
$3.82. The lowest is in Houston at $2.58.

GRIFFETH: General Motors (NYSE:GM) sales in China have shifted into
reverse. The company announced today that sales there fell by 15 percent
in the third quarter. That was the first decline in more than a year and
in fact auto sales in China overall have been falling broadly recently with
analysts saying that the slowing economy in China and trade frictions with
the U.S. are starting to make consumers more cautious.

HERERA: It`s that he time. Time to take a look at some of today`s
upgrades and downgrades. General Electric (NYSE:GE) was upgraded to over
weight from equal weight at Barclays. The analyst cites the new CEO`s
ability to lead a turn around and added that most of the bad news is
already priced into the stock.


JULIAN MITCHELL, BARCLAYS: Investors are basically saying at this price
power, renewables, transportation, Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), GE, all of that
collectively is worth zero and we think that`s too harsh.


HERERA: The price target is $16 but the firm puts the stock at $20 in a
so-called blue skies scenario. Shares of GE rose 3 percent to $13.61.

Apple`s target was hike to $265 at Citi. The analyst cites higher average
product selling prices and strong margins. The firm maintains a buy rating
on the stock, but $16. The stock fell a fraction to $223.77.

GRIFFETH: Square`s price target was raised to $108 at Goldman Sachs
(NYSE:GS). The analyst there cited margin expansion and revenue growth.
The firm maintained its buy rating on the stock in the meantime. Buy but
concerns over Square`s credit risk sent that stock lower by about 8 percent
today to $86.06.

Conagra was upgraded to buy from o neutral at UBS. The analyst cited the
company`s long term growth potential following its acquisition of Pinnacle
Foods. Price target now is $40. Shares rose by 3 percent to $34.65.

HERERA: Still ahead, the benefits of rising interest rates and what they
could mean for you.


GRIFFETH: Two American economists have won the Nobel Prize in economics
for their work on understanding how economies can grow sustainably.
William Nordhaus is a professor at Yale University. He`s best known for
his work on climate economics and he developed a model that examines the
effects of climate policy like carbon taxes on the global economy.

Meanwhile, Paul Romer is a professor at NYU, New York University. His work
has shown how economic forces govern the willingness of companies to

HERERA: The Teamsters Union approved a deal with UPS even though most
members voted against it. Since a majority of members did not vote at all
and because 2/3 of those who did vote did not oppose the contract, it was
ratified, but the decision could cause a rise in tensions between factions
within the Teamsters and all of this comes as companies like UPS ramp up
for the busy holiday season.

GRIFFETH: And it`s not just UPS ramping up for the holiday rush, DHL is as
well, and its ability to navigate the tremendous growth in e-commerce
depends on its ability to hire the right workers despite the current labor

Frank Holland is in Lockbourne, Ohio, for us tonight.


driver`s seats at the company that move and deliver all things Americans
buy online.

to invest in me and my career goals, and they have done that so far.

HOLLAND: Jennifer Roeger left the job as a teacher to work here for the
flexibility it offered and now, she`s become the student in her
professional life.

ROEGER: To be honest with you, I was not handy with a computer when I
first got here. I have learned how to use a computer. I learned how to
use a laptop. I`ve learned how to use Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

So, for me, that was the most rewarding experience ever. Just like basic
learning technology on a computer.

HOLLAND: That kind of training along with competitive pay, access to new
technology and employee perks are just some of the ways that DHL supply
chain says it attracts and retains top talent.

motivating employees in order for us to successfully service customers.
When we can`t find the right associate, that impacts our ability to deliver
service to customers, and impacts the margin of our business.

HOLLAND: There is only one qualified person for every six openings in this
kind of work according to a supply chain management review report. That
global shortage, along with competition from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) which
recently raised its minimum wage to $15 an hour and has two facilities
within 30 minutes of this one has amped up competition for workers.

KELLEHR: We are finding that we have to interview or consider about ten
candidates for every hire that we have. So in our efforts to build a pool,
would he have to build a pretty substantial pool in order to find the right
talent that we`re looking for.

HOLLAND: DHL and other supply chain companies need workers for assembling
and packing along with others for technical and operational work that can
often require specialized skills and college degrees.

This facility handles 100 percent of the orders for Rhodan and Fields, the
number one skincare brand in the U.S. Management hopes to expand this
workforce by 25 percent by the end of next year. But they say they can`t
maintain the productivity and profitability unless they hire the right

Technology is also becoming increasingly important as the company strives
to improve efficiency by integrating robots and AI tech like Google
(NASDAQ:GOOG) glass into their facilities. It also helps to attract top

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Frank Holland in Lockbourne, Ohio.


HERERA: Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) exposed user data. That`s where we begin
tonight`s “Market Focus”.

Alphabet`s Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) exposed the private data of hundreds of
thousands of users of its Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Plus social network.
According to “The Wall Street Journal,” Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) opted not to
disclose the issue in part because of concerns over regulatory scrutiny.
Access to the data occurred between 2015 and early this year. The company
is also shutting down Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Plus.

Shares of alphabet fell 1 percent on the day to $1,155.92.

A group of private equity firms are going after Arconic. According to
reports, Blackstone, the Carlisle Group and others, have joined forces in a
bid to acquire the aluminum products maker Arconic. They consortium does
however face competition from other buyout firms. An activist investor has
reportedly been pushing Arconic to explore a sale. Shares of Arconic were
up 7 percent to $23.40.

And the paint and coatings company PPG is raising the price of its car
paint by an average of 10 percent. This to combat a rise in raw materials,
freight, distribution and labor costs. But after the bell the company
warned that its third quarter results will be impacted by softening demand
in China and foreign currency fluctuations. After closing higher, it
immediately sold off in after-hours trading.

GRIFFETH: Barnes & Noble (NYSE:NE) (NYSE:BKS) extended its gains in the
market today following a report at Barron`s over the weekend that said the
stock could rise further. Last week, recall shares got a lift on the news
that the bookseller is entertaining bids from interested buyers. Today,
Barnes & Noble (NYSE:NE) (NYSE:BKS) rose another 1 percent to $7.02.

Walmart is taking on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Hulu. The retailer is
partnering with movie studio Metro Goldwyn Mayer to create content for its
video on demand service called Vudu. Walmart purchased Vudu eight years
ago and it`s looking for ways to increase its monthly viewership. Shares
rose 1.5 percent today to $94.69.

And reports say that a unit of Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) accidentally exposed
the data of hundreds of thousands of boat owners who used its GPS devices.
The company says the vulnerability was due to a misconfiguration in one of
its backup databases. Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) said that it investigated and
resolved that issue once it was notified of the breach. And shares fell by
1 percent today to $67.85.

HERERA: Well, after the Fed`s recent rate hike and with another increase
potentially before the end of the year, many on Main Street are focused on
what those rising rates will cost them. It will be more expensive for many
borrowers but there are also some benefits to rising interest rates.

Sharon Epperson joins us now to explain that.

It`s always good to see you, Sharon.

Good to be here.

HERERA: So, let`s look at the silver lining. What are some of the

EPPERSON: Well, start with higher return for savers. That`s the good news
for many savers out there, including retirees who are going to see more
interest income. Great news for them as well.

And then we`re going to see more credit availability also. We`re already
starting to see that compared to a few years ago.

GRIFFETH: But we know relatively speaking savings rates are pretty low
still. So, how much can you expect to earn on savings accounts.

EPPERSON: The key is to find the right high yield savings account. And if
you look at the national average being 0.9 percent you can see a top rate
on a high yield savings account over 2 percent. And that`s what you want
to shoot for. You want to try to get a rate that high, you have to go to
online bank most likely to get that rate.

They`re very competitive. Make sure it`s FDIC insured. And that`s a great
place to go. Also for savers and for retirees looking to tie up their
money maybe for a year, maybe longer, the CD rates are improving also, 2.5
percent or more for a one year CD. If you can tie it up for three years or
more, you can get over 3 percent on a 3-year or 5-year CD, and that`s a
significant increase than what we`ve seen in the past.

HERERA: Absolutely. On the flip side, and there`s always a flip side,
borrowers are going to end up paying more.

EPPERSON: Well, if you are very a credit worthy borrower, the good news,
because you always try to find a silver lining here, is that there is more
credit available. So, banks want to loan out at these higher rates. So,
that means products that may not have been available before are now
available for folks.

HERERA: Good point.

EPPERSON: Again, you have to have good credit for that. But we are seeing
rates rise for credit cards and that`s one where people are going to get
hit. Seventeen percent on average for the minimum for a credit card rate
according to You add to that the rate point increases and
we`re going to see that within the next billing cycle.

The reward there, pay it down now. Then you won`t have to pay more. Don`t
get complacent thinking it`s just a little bit on monthly statement. It`s
going to start to add up. You could carry that debt for decades.

GRIFFETH: Always look on the bright side.

EPPERSON: Always look on the bright side. Definitely when it comes to
your money. Money python and Sharon Epperson.

HERERA: Thanks, Sharon, as always.


GRIFFETH: And coming up, the hottest toys coming this holiday season.


HERERA: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has taken the unusual step of sending a letter
to Congress denying last week`s report that it had fallen victim to a
hardware hack perpetrated by China. That letter says that the Bloomberg
report provided no evidence to substantiate their claims and that Apple`s
internal investigation found those claims to be false. The report singled
out Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as two prominent victims
of the attack.

GRIFFETH: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is pausing its Windows 10 update, this
after reports of customers who downloaded the latest upgrade called 1809
discovered that most of their personal files like Word documents and photos
had been permanently deleted. The root cause of the issue has yet to be
determined. And, by the way, only files in the documents folder appear to
have been affected and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) now says it has the tools to
help try and recover those deleted files.

HERERA: Well, it may be October, but the nation`s major retailers are
planning now for the holiday shopping season. With Toys “R” Us gone, they
are competing more aggressively for your dollars, hoping you buy the
hottest holiday toys at their stores.

Courtney Reagan has more.


hottest holiday toys fit into categories of unboxing or some element of
surprise and collectability and wearable pets. Add updates of past year`s
favorites and you get this year`s hottest toys.

Private toymaker MGA Entertainment says its LOL surprise toys are the top
selling toys around the world this year. LOL surprise biggie pets and LOL
surprise bigger surprise are indeed topping hot toy lists and be getting
harder to find.

JIM SILVER, TTPM CEO: LOL hits the shelves and online and then it`s
immediately sold out. As we get a little closer to the holidays, there
will be more. In the board game area, there`s a game called Relative
Insanity. Now, that`s Jeff Foxworthy`s game. That game has been blowing
out. There`s a short supply.

REAGAN: Silver says Pomsies, the plush wearable pet toy made by Skyrocket,
is this year`s fingerlings, which are also still popular.

Just Play Hairdorables, these are collectible surprise dolls and
accessories also top many hot toy lists.

Canadian toymaker Spinmaster has a new Hatchimals this year. Hatchibabies,
and it just launched last week. Classic toys like Mattel`s Barbie dream
house and Lego`s, Harry Potter Hogwarts Great Hall will be on the wish

Half of the year`s toys sales are done during the holiday season. And with
the liquidation of Toys “R” Us, other retailers are clamoring to pick up
the share.

Analysts at B. Riley FBR surveyed consumers, asking where they would buy
toys now that Toys “R” Us is gone. Walmart, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and
Target (NYSE:TGT) topped the list. Still, some think the big box retailers
won`t totally make up for Toys “R” Us sales in the days right before

SILVER: The last four days, Toys “R” Us did $500 million in sales. It`s
staggering the amount of volume that they moved through the store. Now,
Walmart and Target (NYSE:TGT), I don`t know if they`re set up to move that
type of volume in four days. With Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), the last four days
consumers are reluctant to place an order that close to Christmas because,
am I going to get it in time?

REAGAN: This holiday season will be a test for parents in search of the
hottest toys and for retailers hoping to fill the void.



GRIFFETH: And before we go, one last look at the day on Wall Street. No
bond trading day because of Columbus Day.

The Dow rose 39. The Nasdaq fell another 52 today. The S&P was down just
a point.

HERERA: And that will do it for us tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for
joining us.

GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great evening. Happy Columbus Day.

HERERA: Yes, indeed.

GRIFFETH: See you tomorrow.


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Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
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