Transcript: Nightly Business Report – July 4, 2018


welcome to the special edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

look ahead to the second half of the year to try to figure out what is in
store for investors in those months ahead.

HERERA: Well, the market so far this year has been full of fireworks.
From a rally in January, to a sell off in February to a number of twists
and turns since then. The big question is, what happens next?

Dominic Chu takes a look.


of 2018 didn`t play out at all like the first six months of 2017. While
the broader market staged a relatively calm and steady rally all of last
year, the same cannot be said this time around.

But that isn`t scaring some experts when it comes to the second half of
this year.

RYAN DETRICK, LPL FINANCIAL: Under the surface, small cap leadership is
doing well. We think in the second half of this year, can continue to be
upward and the bull should be in control here.

CHU: There will be a number of key drivers to watch as we head toward year
end. But one of the most critical remains the health of corporate America
and its ability to produce profits.

SANDY VILLERE, VILLERE & CO.: I think in the second half, it`s going to be
mostly earnings, it`s going to impact where stocks go. Stocks tend to
follow earnings.

CHU: Given all the uncertainty around President Trump`s trade policies and
the medium to longer effects of the economy, investors will be watching and
listening closely to any commentary from CEOs and CFOs during the upcoming
earning season, about potential impacts to business. But if the economy
can`t manage to maintain momentum, even pick up some steam, some parts of
the markets may do better than others.

DETRICK: When the GDP gains 3 percent or more, so you have a good economy.
Value tends to do much better than growth. So, in our opinion, it`s kind f
a contrarian play, with a stronger economy like we expect the second half
of this year, it could finally be time for value to outperform growth the
second half of 2018.

CHU: However, some sectors may appear less attractive than others do.

VILLERE: We`ve really avoided retail, and I think energy is tough, because
you`re so dependent on the commodity price. But retail in general has been
a tough place to be. I get worried about all the impacts Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) is going to have on many businesses. So, I would avoid those
two sectors.

CHU: Those are a handful of topics in the coming months. Add to that, the
upcoming midterm elections in Congress this fall, and you get what could be
a recipe for more market volatility to finish the year.



GRIFFETH: And, of course, the tech sector has been beloved by investors
leading the market higher both this year and last.

And as Josh Lipton reports now, some key events are on the agenda for the
second half this year.


performing sectors so far this year. So, what should investors expect in
the second half. Here are three predictions.

One, tech IPOs stay strong. We had a solid first half of the year for tech
IPOs, Dropbox, Spotify, and DocuSign to name just a few. That trend
continues in the second half, with a pipeline of prospects. SurveyMonkey
confidentially filed for an IPO. Venture investors also say to watch
software firms like Qualtrics and Apttus. Investors have been eager to buy
tech companies, especially ones selling cloud bases services.

Two, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) successfully navigates trade tensions. Tim Cook
will introduce new iPhones in the fall, which need to sell well in China.
But investors might worry that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) could now get caught in
the crossfire.

As the trade battle heats up between the U.S. and China, here`s what some
are predicting. Apple`s China business will not be seriously impacted.
Ultimately, Beijing doesn`t want to hurt the iPhone maker with more than 1
million Chinese working in some way on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) products.

Three, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) picks Indianapolis as its new headquarters.
The company is deciding what city will host its second corporate
headquarters and has visited all 20 finalists. Indianapolis could be a
serious contender, centrally located between interstate highways, a plus
for the e-commerce giant. It`s got a strong university system and a state
economy that`s stable and business-friendly.

One possible hurdle, a relative shortage of the kinds of skilled workers
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) wants right now. But with this new headquarters, Indy
could attract them from Chicago, and the rest of the Midwest.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Josh Lipton, San Francisco.


HERERA: So, how should investors prepare themselves for the rest of 2018?

Joining us for a strategy session is Jim Paulsen, chief investment
strategist with the Leuthold Group.

Good to see you, Jim. Thanks for joining us.


HERERA: We have seen twists and turns and volatility in the first half of
the year.


HERERA: Do you expect that to continue? What does the market complexion
look like to you?

PAULSEN: I kind of do. I think the primary problem all year from my
perspective has been the bond yields have been too low, and stock
valuations have been too high. And we`re doing a job on that, you know, we
raised yields now, they`re a lot better than they were when we came into
the year. And P/E notables, the valuation of stocks, have come down
primarily because market has been flat while earnings have gone up.

I just think we have more of that to do yet, and in the second half, I
think we`re going to struggle with maybe a little slower economic growth
which could challenge Wall Street earnings estimates a bit, but the problem
is, it might not slow enough to really stop the Fed from continuing to
raise interest rates or stop wage and consumer price inflation from
continuing to rise. So, we may have a stagflation which is going to I
think continue to create volatility.

I`m not looking for a bear market, Sue. I don`t think that`s the case.
But I think more volatility or maybe even lower lows this year could be a
distinct possibility.

GRIFFETH: Let me get you to put a finer point on that, Jim. Clearly, the
Fed wants to raise rates, maybe even three more times this year. You see
3-1/2 percent on a 10-year by the end of this year, will that be good or
bad for stocks in your view?

PAULSEN: Well, I think the rest of this year if that happens, Bill, I
think it will kind of keep a lid on the upside for the stock market.
Against that, you got to remember, earnings might go up to 20 percent
annual rate the rest of this year. So, they can probably with stand higher
rates over that period of time.

I do think, my guess is, sometime this year, either at year end when stocks
are a little cheaper, because earnings go up and the stock market doesn`t
do anything, or we have a bit of a panic yet this year. I think that might
be a really great buying opportunity for — to enter pretty good returns
next year in 2019.

HERERA: And let`s talk more about that, because you`ve given us strategies
for investors. First, you say overweight the inflation sectors like energy
and things like that, correct?

PAULSEN: Right. I think, Sue, you know, we`ve got a 3.8 percent
unemployment rate, if we grow at all, we`re going to continue to aggravate
inflation pressures if you also weaken the U.S. dollar in the second half,
which I think could happen. I think that will push up not just oil but
other commodity prices. And I think you`re going to want to own some of
these that really benefit from that, the energy`s already doing well, but I
think material stocks and industrials could enter the fray if that happens.

HERERA: Jim Paulsen, thank you so much.

PAULSEN: Thank you.

HERERA: Jim Paulsen is with the Leuthold Group.


GRIFFETH: To the housing market now, where prices are rising as you know,
and inventory is falling, and that has been frustrating potential buyers
all across the country.

As Diana Olick reports now, that frustration may linger.


is pricy and competitive, and it`s likely to stay that way for the rest of
the year. But things may be easing up on a couple fronts. First, mortgage
rates, they rose sharply at the start of this year, but seem to have
settled lately, albeit at that higher level, while rates are unlikely to
fall and could inch up a little bit more, experts are not expecting as big
a leap as in the first half of this year.

Home prices are still hot, rising faster than incomes but the games seem to
be easing up ever so slightly, as buyers hit an affordability wall and the
supply of homes for sale increases a little bit. Supply will be key in the
second half. Home builders will continue to ramp up production, although
not as quickly as need, and mostly in the move up, not entry level

Costs are already high for builders, and a potential trade war would only
make that worse, with those higher costs passed on to consumers. One thing
is certain, demand for housing will only increase as a stronger economy
gives more and more renters buying power.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick, in Washington.


HERERA: So far in 2018, the airline and auto sectors have underperformed
the market as a whole. There are concerns that will continue as the
industry`s fight headwinds in the months ahead.

Phil LeBeau has more.


exported and imported to the United States and how much they`ll be taxed
will be a focus for auto investors this summer and fall. Daimler has
already said its earnings will be lowered due to tariff costs. And others
could follow with President Trump pushes through higher tariffs. Which
raises another issue, will tariffs drive up prices and hurt sales?

And speaking of sales, the biggest question for investors will be whether
Tesla can sustain a higher delivery rate for the Model 3. Will Elon Musk
have to raise more capital for his company?

For airlines, the big issue, jet fuel prices, up 50 percent in the last
year. Could they go higher? That would push up costs and could prompt
some carriers to cut flights in certain markets.

Finally, will demand remain strong and planes stay (INAUDIBLE)?

The robust economy and high consumer confidence have a record number of
people looking to fly this summer. Will that continue this fall, that`s a
big question facing airlines and their investors in the second half of this



HERERA: So, as you plan your summer vacation, there`s an emerging battle
between illegal short term rentals and the law. Morgan Brennan spent
months investigating this CNBC exclusive, and that`s next.


GRIFFETH: An emerging turf battle is underway between cities and upstart
tech companies like Airbnb that have been capitalizing on the Wild West
landscape of the so-called share economy. It`s valued at $31 billion,
Airbnb is, and it`s currently worth most of its publicly traded hotel
rivals. But gigantic growth means big growing pains at the same time.

HERERA: It sure does. And Airbnb unwelcomed guests is our investigation
into that clash between illegal short term rentals and restricted
regulations. Airbnb says it has worked with cities around the world to
craft reasonable regulations. But not in Miami Beach, where the fight has
no end in site.

Morgan Brennan has that story.


Saturday night and we`re riding along with Miami Beach Code Compliance, on
the lookout for illegal short-term rentals.

And what are you looking for tonight?

contact if it`s occupied and determine whether it`s a violation or not.

BRENNAN: Code compliance officer Vijma Maharaj has seen it all. Large
noisy late-night parties in residential neighborhoods, commercial video
shoots with scantily clad women in a home investigated for short term
rental claims, and unwitting tourists who say they unknowingly booked
Airbnbs in prohibited areas.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You shouldn`t be able to do this. This is messed up.

BRENNAN: All captured on body camera videos recorded over the past two


BRENNAN: Some are so blatant as these house rules show what to do if
someone asks. They`re told to lie by saying they`re a friend and certainly
don`t mention they rent this place.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You`re not allowed to rent this house for less than
six months and one day.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everybody has to leave.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This party needs to clear up.

BRENNAN: At a loud party in Millbrae, California, in the San Francisco Bay
Area, shots rang out.

Guests seen on surveillance cameras running down the street. Airbnb says
it has zero tolerance for this type of behavior and permanently banned the
guests. Airbnb says these incidents don`t represent the overwhelming
number of satisfied hosts and guests in 8,100 cities and 191 countries.
And it has successfully worked with lawmakers around the world.

Back on the streets of Miami Beach, it`s not long before we roll up on a
group of vacationers. The building has telltale signs of an illegal
rental. Two of the units advertised on Airbnb have lockboxes and key pads.

Do you live there?


BRENNAN: How long have you been living there?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, we just rented with Airbnb.

BRENNAN: Are you guys surprised to hear that it`s not legal here?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, yes, because, I mean, it`s something that`s,
you know, it`s just out there for people.

DAN GELBER, MIAMI BEACH MAYOR: You would say when you hear that story —

BRENNAN: To Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, the issue is clear cut.

GELBER: They may work in some places but they really don`t work here,
because at the end of the day, it`s not the mom and pops we are seeing
here. We`re seeing commercialized predatory companies that are trying to
commercialize our residential communities.

BRENNAN: Predatory seems like a strong word. What do you mean by that?

GELBER: It is predatory, because it`s not about a mom and pop or
grandmother wanting to bring in a college kid to make him chicken soup at
night. It`s people taking very nice properties, buying them, and turning
them into essentially a flophouse.

BRENNAN: Gelber, a former prosecutor and former state lawmaker, says
Airbnb and other $ home-sharing platforms must abide by the law.

Have you spoken to Airbnb or any of the other companies that operate here?

GELBER: I`ve spoken to some of the representatives before I was elected.
I`d like to send them a message. I`d like them to be corporately
responsible. I`d like them to do the right thing.

BRENNAN: Why do you think they haven`t done that?

GELBER: Look, these are not charities. These home-sharing platforms, they
want to make money.

BRENNAN: From South Florida to Southern (NYSE:SO) California, short term
rentals have turned some neighborhoods into next door nightmares.
Different cities encounter different problems.

Across the country, in Los Angeles we found large homes that routinely
advertised on Airbnb for mega parties, prompting noise complaints and
proposed ordinance to restrict short-term rental use.

At a loud party in Millbrae, California, in the San Francisco Bay Area,
shots rang out.

BRENNAN: Guests seen on surveillance cameras running down the street.
Airbnb says it has zero tolerance for this type of behavior, and
permanently bans the guest.

Airbnb says these incidents don`t represent the overwhelming number of
satisfied hosts and guests in 81,000 cities and 191 countries. And it`s
successfully worked with lawmakers around the world.

Back on the streets of Miami beach, it`s not long before we roll up on a
group of vacationers.

The building has telltale signs of an illegal rental. Two of the units
advertised on Airbnb have lock boxes and keypads.

Do you live there?


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How long have you been living there?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We actually just rented the Airbnb.

BRENNAN: The guests say they booked the Airbnb for two nights through a
host named Rachel. It`s the same Rachel in this listing we found online.

Are you surprised to hear it`s not legal here?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, yes, because, I mean, it`s something that`s
you know, it`s just out there for people.

BRENNAN: It gets even more interesting when Officer Maharaj calls Rachel.

occupants here, and they told me they rented your unit. The city has an
ordinance that prohibits short term rentals. Are you aware of this?

RACHEL: They`re actually my guests or my friends.

MAHARAJ: They told me —

RACHEL: They`re staying in my apartment.

MAHARAJ: So, are they staying here for free? Is that what you`re telling


MAHARAJ: I can get them on the phone to talk to you right now because they
just told me they paid approximately $950 for the weekend and it was rented
via Airbnb.

RACHEL: Oh, no, no, no. That shouldn`t — no. Let me check with them

MAHARAJ: Hello, sir, I think you guys have a free apartment. Rachel told
me you guys are friends and you didn`t have to pay to stay here. Is that

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That is not true.

MAHARAJ: OK, well, she`s on the phone. Maybe she wants to give you a

BRENNAN: Rachel says she`s associated with a company called Vacayo, which
is well known to city officials. Vacayo is a New York-based management
company that rents properties and then leases them via Airbnb and other
rental platforms to short term tenants. Both Vacayo and the property owner
who was staying in a downstairs unit were each issued a violation notice
which carries a $20,000 fine.

The owner didn`t want to talk to us. The cities fines range from $20,000
to $100,000 for the fifth offense. The total fines for Vacayo and its
cofounders amount to $700,000, at four properties in Miami Beach.

The city is on track to conduct more than 1,000 investigations into short
term rentals this year, up from more than 800 in 2017. Total fines so far
this year, $2.4 million. But only about 183,000 has been collected.

At another illegal Airbnb advertised by the same host, identified by the
city is Rachel Perea, Officer Maharaj walks in to find out what`s going on.

MAHARAJ: This building is located in a zone where it`s prohibited to rent
out apartments for less than six months and one day.


BRENNAN: The college students tell us their group of six rented the
apartment for $1,279 for five days. The apartment is clearly set up for
short term guests.

Is this the other bedroom? This is a two bedroom apartment. It supposedly
sleeps eight.

This unit and a second one in the building now have together racked up four
violations, both were leased by Vacayo. The unit`s owner says he didn`t
know anything about them being used for this purpose.

After we contacted Airbnb, the company said it`s given the students a full

These properties on Airbnb —

We wanted to get some answers from the Airbnb host Rachel Perea (ph).

RACHEL PEREA: I`m sorry about that? I`m really sorry. I can`t take this
call right now.

BRENNAN: Vacayo COO and co-founder Isabel Berney says her company has
since gotten out of the leases where these short term rentals aren`t
allowed and has not paid the $700,000 in fines.

ISABEL BERNEY, VACAYO COO: Our lawyers are resolving that, they feel like
it`s unconstitutional the way they`re finding. There`s many, many
different groups fighting the city, and it hasn`t been resolved. They`re
not collecting the fines that they`re issuing.

BRENNAN: Are you going to wait and run out the clock and see if laws
change in Miami Beach?

BERNEY: Right now, we`re just not accepting any homeowners in Miami Beach.
We get about 30 to 50 requests a day to lease property on our Website.

BRENNAN: Do your investors know that you have these outstanding fines in
Miami Beach?

BERNEY: Our investors are fully aware of everything going on. And they
know that we, you know, stuck our neck out for a lot of owners and that we
are tackling a really difficult problem, in general with our property and
with basically accepting single family homes.

BRENNAN: Are you saying that you will continue to break the law in some of
these properties —

BERNEY: I`m not saying that we want to fight and we`re going to enter
properties now knowing that the law has changed and we`re not allowed.

BRENNAN: She confirmed that Rachel Perea is still one of Vacayo`s hosts.

She said the renters were friends, that they weren`t paying anything, which
was false. So she lied to Code Compliance. Are you aware of that?

BERNEY: No, but how do you know it was false? Because I do let friends
and family use our places?

BRENNAN: Here is the violation, this is the customer receipt.

BERNEY: Yes, I mean she was probably put on the spot and she was probably
scared and I didn`t — I wasn`t aware.

BRENNAN: Responding to our investigation Airbnb says it has removed
listings associated with Vacayo from the site.

In an interview at Airbnb`s San Francisco headquarters, Chris Lehane, the
head of global policy, strongly defended the company`s track record.

being run by any mayor, any elected official in this time of economic
inequality that`s generating $6,100 for a typical middle class family, all
without the expenditure of a single taxpayer dollar. That is what Airbnb
is about at its core, trying to use technology to create economic

BRENNAN: Should Airbnb responsible for what is in that market illegal
activity on the platform?

LEHANE: I think what seems to be a common sense solution for Miami Beach,
happy to do this if they actually really want to sit down and have a
constructive conversation, is you can take that 35 percent of the city
that`s a residential area, make that an exclusionary zone. Allow the
activity to be able to take place in the 65 percent of the city that`s
actually explicitly zoned for this type of activity.

BRENNAN: In the meantime, you have illegal listings on your site.

LEHANE: Well, first of all, I think if you actually look at the underlying
law in the city in Miami Beach, right? Miami Beach allows for this
activity to take place. $20,000 fines on someone making their home
available a few times a year to actually help make ends meet? Does the
city actually want to make this work as well as possible for as many people
as possible?

BRENNAN: He says Airbnb has more than 400 partnerships with places around
the world, including the proposed restrictions in Los Angeles.

If you had to grade Airbnb, what grade would you give the company in terms
of complying with regulations, broadly?

LEHANE: I appreciate the professor asking the question, what I would say
is with those cities who want to engage in a conversation, we deserve a
really high grade.

BRENNAN: What about the cities who don`t?

LEHANE: That`s like asking me to, how am I going to do when a test, when
the person grading the test is actually going to even give the correct
answers and incorrect result. If you have a teacher who`s trying to rig
the process, it`s impossible to be able to answer the question, about how
you can do it.

BRENNAN: In markets like Miami Beach where you have illegal listings on
Airbnb, why not block those?

LEHANE: We`ve worked with cities all over the country. We put in
something called a passthrough registration system. Cities can determine
whether something is in the permissible area or not.

BRENNAN: Lehane takes aim at the hotel industry, Airbnb`s competition,
which he says has been shown to be closely aligned with regulators.

LEHANE: Miami Beach hasn`t been interested in doing that, because Miami
Beach up to this point in time has just not had a serious desire to really
want to engage on this, because at the end of the day, as the information
that has come out revealed, they`re effectively working hand in glove with
the hotel industry, which is incredibly powerful, and a hotel industry that
really doesn`t want to see every day people to be able to use their homes
to make extra money.

BRENNAN: The American Hotel and Lodging Association tells us that instead
of supporting common sense regulations, Airbnb has opted to deploy a
massive campaign of dirty tactics, deceptive messaging and personal attacks
against anyone who raises a concern.

McGill University assistant professor David Wachsmuth, who has researched
Airbnb regulations around the world says, Miami Beach is not atypical.

been a little more aggressive than some other cities, but I would think of
it really that it`s the kind — the front of the big waves. You know, you
can`t throw a rock in this country right now without hitting a city that`s
moving to regulate short term rentals more aggressively. And so, Miami
Beach is kind of at the forefront of that, but they`re very much in line
with the trend that`s happening across the country and actually across the

BRENNAN: Among Wachsmuth`s research primarily done through the university,
is this 2018 report, commissioned by the hotel industry that found 45
percent of all Airbnb reservations in New York City last year were illegal.
Airbnb calls the report deeply flawed and inaccurate.

Bottom line, this is a company that`s not going away, how does it play nice
with others?

WACHSMUTH: Well, I think that, right now, what Airbnb needs to do is to
come up with a strategy for being just a little more proactive with the way
they`re willing to enforce regulations, right? Lots of cities are passing
laws, but they have a hard time enforcing those laws. I think that
Airbnb`s current business model is not compatible with the kind of
recognition that short term rentals are not in the broadly public interest
in cities.

BRENNAN: Clearly, even with an aggressive enforcement team in Miami Beach,
the illegal rentals remain hard to enforce. Just look at what we found
when we returned to the same apartment that had been cited two weeks prior.
A group of college students on spring break who told us they had no idea
they were staying in an illegal Airbnb.



GRIFFETH: Whether it`s Airbnb or or HomeAway, which is owned
by Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE), all of these companies have had classes to
varying degrees with regulators in different cities. Officials in many of
those cities across the country, whether it`s Boston, or Los Angeles or New
York, they say there are issues. That said, we found in our reporting that
the company brought up the most frequently is Airbnb.

HERERA: That will do it for us, thank you so much for watching this
special edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. I`m Sue Herera.

GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great evening. Happy Fourth of July.
We`ll see you tomorrow.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at The program is transcribed by ASC Services II
Media, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views
of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
(c) 2018 CNBC, Inc.


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