Transcript: Nightly Business Report – June 25, 2018


as investors are rattled by trade tensions, even as the White House tries
to walk it back.

Economic momentum. Optimism is at a record. New home sales surging, but
is the red hot economy too hot?

Moving out. Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is shifting some production
overseas and the American icon is blaming tariffs.

Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Monday June

Good evening, everyone, and welcome. Bill is off this evening.

It was a rough way to start the week. The Dow fell sharply, recording its
ninth decline in the past 10 sessions. Roughly half of the S&P 500 sectors
closed in correction territory, even the beloved tech sector got hit hard
as trade anxiety spread through the market and unnerved investors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 328 points to 24,252. The Nasdaq
was down 160 or more than 2 percent. And the S&P 500 fell 37.

Bob Pisani has more on today`s sell-off from the New York Stock Exchange.


trade tensions rose again today with the Dow erasing all of its gains so
far in June and ending just about in correction territory. We`re almost 10
percent from record highs.

It was risk off all day, with the usual crop of industrial stocks and
materials down, those are trade worries. That happens all the time. But
the damage was a little bit broader than that today.

Today also gave investors that excuse to take profits on some of those
overheated names. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), for example, fell 7 percent today
after surging more than a hundred percent so far this year. Netflix
(NASDAQ:NFLX) isn`t in China, so there`s clearly a broader rotation going
on here.

Other FANG stocks like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB),
Alphabet, they were all down about 3 percent. Other big momentum names
like Alibaba and Nvidia and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) and Twitter, they were all
down mid-single digits.

Even the small cap Russell 2000, which had been relatively immune to these
trade war worries, dropped almost 2 percent.

Now, a new twist was thrown into the trade war saga when “The Wall Street
Journal” reported that President Trump might curb Chinese investments in
U.S. technology. Chip stocks suffered their worst single day decline in
two months in a basket of momentum stocks, ticker SPHB has now fallen more
than 4 percent over the last two weeks.

Stocks came off of their lows however late in the day when the president`s
National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro told CNBC that the White
House had no plans to impose investment restrictions. It`s not clear what
he means or whether this contradicts the president`s statement, that`s part
of the problem we`ve got.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.


HERERA: So, where does the president`s strategy on trade actually stand?

Kayla Tausche tries to make sense of the latest twists and turns.


considering limits on China`s ability to invest in the U.S. tech sector,
setting a deadline to introduce such limits by this week. In a tweet,
Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said the statement would not be specific
to China, but White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said that`s not the

going to happen in the near term is on Friday, the Treasury Department is
going to report to the president about the issue related to China. That`s
all it`s going to happen. And with respect to other countries, there`s
absolutely nothing on the table.

TAUSCHE: Fears are growing that the Chinese will hit back hard, disrupting
U.S. businesses by delaying deals and licenses, holding up cargo at the
port`s or even devaluing its currency.

MARK ZANDI, MOODY`S ANALYTICS: We are tethered at the hip with China. The
— in many, many, many different ways and they have many, many different
tools they can use to fight back.

TAUSCHE: President Xi warned Western CEOs in Beijing last week, it would
strike back, criticizing the U.S. and calling on companies to take the road
of reform, opening up innovation and development, and not to go backward to
isolation, inflexibility, protectionism and unilateralism.

Chinese investment in the U.S. has already fallen. Foreign direct
investment is down to just $1.8 billion in the first half of the year.
That`s down more than 90 percent from the same time a year ago. Hopes that
a deal will be worked out are fading.

ROBERT HOLLEYMAN, FORMER U.S. TRADE CENTER: We`re probably now living in
the new norm that these tariffs are likely to go in place, they`re likely
to stay in place, the investment restrictions are likely to go in place and
stay in place.

TAUSCHE: Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) say the proposed tariffs
only pose a modest risk to growth. But the risk of escalation is far

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche in Washington.


HERERA: So, as investors watched the trade back and forth, how much more
selling can we expect?

Paul Schatz is president of Heritage Capital.

Paul, good to see you. Welcome back to the program.


HERERA: I think it`s probably pretty obvious that we should expect
volatility certainly, but where do you think we stand in terms of the cycle
of the market and the sell-off?

SCHATZ: I think — listen, the Dow on the S&P saw their peak on January
23rd, don`t forget the other parts of the market already made new highs
this quarter. So, most of your — of your watches are probably looking at
the Dow and the S&P, which are masking some underlying strength because we
really have — markets been in good shape, but I think this selling is a
very short term little bout of weakness, and I think it wraps up in the
next, you know, five to seven trading days. And then I think the next
quarter which begins on Monday, I think we`re going to see the Dow hit at
least 27,000.

So, I think short term pain, intermediate turn gained. You know, tech went
so far so fast, but I don`t think the run is over. It may cede some
leadership, so other things may lead, but I don`t think the tech bull
market is over yet.

HERERA: So, if you are a longer-term investor and you see a day like we
saw today, do you use that opportunity to go in and add to positions or
look for new positions? Because you are bullish longer-term.

SCHATZ: I am and I think the long term investor should view a day like
today as somewhat just noise. It`s really just short-term noise. Don`t
forget, the Dow is 24,000. So, 300 points in the downside really doesn`t
mean a whole lot.

But if a long-term investor had some cash, I would look — start looking at
the value names which would be the more beaten up ones, I would not — if I
was a long-term investor, I would not look at the FANG stocks. I think,
even if they continue to go up, they certainly have more risk than some of
the names that have been under pressure this year.

So, I look at stuff that hasn`t gone up yet. Maybe even going to consumer
staples, which would be like the supermarkets, the soaps, the Colgate,
Clorox (NYSE:CLX), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), the pharmaceuticals.


SCHATZ: The Mercks, the Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), stuff like that, even the
regional banks. I mean, I don`t want to chase that the stocks that have
had these meteoric rises so late in the bull market, I want to find this
stuff that has some value, it`s not overly expensive and probably is going
to pay some good healthy solid dividends for that long-term investor.

HERERA: All right. On that note, Paul thanks very much, appreciate it.

SCHATZ: Thanks, Sue.

HERERA: Paul Schatz with Heritage Capital.

To the economy now and a surprising surge in new home sales. Purchases of
newly built single-family homes grew a lot more than expected last month,
and the rise comes despite high prices and low home inventory, but there`s
a catch.

Diana Olick has the details.


start more homes in May compared to April, but they did sell more homes.
Sales of newly built homes jumped a wider than expected 6.7 percent after
April`s read was revised down, and there was one more devil in the details.

SUSAN WACHTER, UPENN WHARTON PROFESSOR: All the growth in housing, new
home sales is in the South, where housing is affordable, and that has
implications going forward if interest rates ticked up sharply, will it not
even be affordable in the South?

OLICK: Sales jumped dramatically in the South, which is where builders are
busiest and prices are lowest. That may be why the median price of a newly
built home which has been rising consistently actually dropped 3 percent in
May compared to a year ago.

Builders are not really focused on lower priced homes because they can`t
make as much money on them, especially as the costs for land, labor and
materials continue to rise.

Mortgage rates continued their charge higher in May and while they didn`t
seem to hurt much in the South, they likely contributed to the drop in
sales in more expensive regions, like the West.

PATRICK NEWPORT, IHS (NYSE:IHS) MARKIT: The bottom line is that they`re
going to hurt sales god going forward. The good analysis is that they
probably aren`t going to go up that much more.

OLICK: Interest rates may not go up a lot more, but they will continue to
edge higher. Meanwhile, prices for existing homes continue to rise sharply
and builders are certainly not lowering their prices. Add it up and
housing just continues to get more expensive.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.


HERERA: And that strong housing market may be contributing to a rise in
economic optimism, which according to the latest CNBC All-America Survey is
at a record. Steve Liesman breaks down the results.


optimism hitting a new record in the 10-year history of the CNBC All-
America Economic Survey with 54 percent of the public saying the economy is
good or excellent, and a record low 43 percent labeling it just fair or
poor. It`s small but, it`s also the first time that the percent of
Americans calling the economy excellent now at 13 percent has outstripped
those calling it poor at just 11 percent. Those saying the economy will
get better is down a bit but CNBC pollsters say, that`s what you`d expect
when these are the current situation are so strong.

The positive economic views are helping the president with 51 percent
approving of his handling of the economy. It`s the first time during the
Trump presidency that he`s gained majority approval on the measure. Still,
just 41 percent approve of the overall job he`s doing as president, up just
two points from March. However, the percent of Americans disapproving has
fallen by 10 points.

That could be a sign of disagreeing with the president on other issues
outside the economy. The poll shows Americans are bullish on expected
gains in their home values and that the rise in gas prices hasn`t affected
their driving habits very much. Confidence in stocks has fallen while the
market has turned pretty much sideways this year, but it remains above its
long-run average percent. Forty-two percent say now is a good time to
invest and 29 percent say it`s a bad time.

The smartest of all may be the record 31 percent who say they just don`t



HERERA: While the latest data is indeed solid, is the economy on the brink
of running a bit too hot and will trade tensions cool things off?

We`re joined now by Craig Dismuke, the chief economist at Vining Sparks.

Craig, good to see you again. Welcome back.


HERERA: Let`s get the trade discussion out of the way. What type of
impact do you think the current trade dispute or and/or tariffs might have
on the economy?

DISMUKE: We think it will be fractional. You know, the biggest fear
obviously is that this escalates from here. If you look at the trade
tariffs that have been put in place so far, the impact of growth should be
very minimal. The impact to inflation should be very minimal. Those are
the two things we really look at as far as their impact to the economy.

And so, as long as they don`t escalate, you know, into a tray — as long as
it doesn`t escalate into a trade war, then we think the impact will be
fairly small.

HERERA: What — but you do think that the Fed might have a bigger impact
net-net on the economy and something that investors should watch. Why?

DISMUKE: Well, based on the previous stories you just discussed, you know,
the economy is very strong right now and if you look at and if you look at
the consumer the unemployment rates down to 3.75 percent. Job openings are
at the record high level, consumer confidence is as high as it`s been in
almost 20 years. If you look at the business sector, you know, businesses
are as confident as they`ve been going back to 1973. Their outlook for
sales is very strong. If you look at the government sector, we now have a
fiscal boost coming from the increase in the spending caps. Global growth
has been very strong.

And so, you`ve had this confluence of events, where everything has become a
tailwind and so, the Fed looks at this scenario and they start to and
they`ve become more hawkish. We`ve seen them hike rates already and now,
they`re there going forward, they`re projecting more hikes. And so, that
is in the last Fed meeting, they announced that they are in their
projections, they`ve projected two more hikes this year, instead of just
one. And so, you see them becoming very slowly a little bit more hawkish
and so, it looks like we`re towards the later end of the cycle.

And as the Fed is hiking I think that has the potential to really point to
the end of the cycle. In other words, they might hike rates just a little
bit too much. They might tighten too quickly. Well, that`s the risk and,
you know, especially if they become concerned about inflation.

And right now, inflation continues to be fairly moderate but if they start
to become too concerned about it, that`s what happened back in `89, 2000,
2006. When you look back at their statements, they were concerned about
inflation and so, they hiked rates through longer-term rates. And once
that happens, that typically is an indicator that you`re going to have a

HERERA: On that note, Craig, thank you so much. We will be watching.

Craig Dismuke —

DISMUKE: Thank you.

HERERA: — with Vining Sparks.

It is time to take a look at some of today`s upgrades and downgrades.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at Atlantic
Equities. The analyst says Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has successfully
managed its transition to a cloud-based company. The price target is $125
and on this down market day, shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) fell 2
percent to $98.39.

Fellow Dow component Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was downgraded to neutral from buy
at Nomura-Instinet. The analysts there cites last week`s abrupt departure
of the CEO, Brian Krzanich, as well as uncertainty about the chip maker`s
longer-term prospects. The price target: $55. The stock dropped 3 percent
to $50.71.

Kroger (NYSE:KR) was downgraded to hold from buy over at Pivotal Research.
The analyst cites the stocks valuation following a 17 percent gain over the
past month. The price target is $31. The stock fell 1 percent to $29.33.

Still ahead, women get behind the wheel in Saudi Arabia and steered their
way to economic opportunity.


HERERA: The Supreme Court handed American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP) a
legal victory. American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP) has a policy of not
allowing merchants to encourage customers to use other lower fee credit
cards. The high court ruled that policy does not violate antitrust law.
The decision validates a key component of American Express`s business model
and that sent the shares higher by more than 1 percent, making it one of
the best performing stocks on the Dow index today.

Investors slammed the brakes on shares of Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) today.
That after the motorcycle makers said it is moving some of its production
out of the United States. The reason: to avoid those new tariffs in Europe
that will jack up the cost of selling Harley`s in that continent. It`s an
example of the fallout from the Trump administration`s brewing trade war
with Europe.

Phil LeBeau has more.


(NYSE:HOG) is hurting. The motorcycle maker already struggling with slower
sales in the U.S. is now facing a big hit due to tariffs in Europe, its
second-largest market. The E.U. is raising tariffs for U.S. -built
motorcycles from 6 percent to 31 percent. So, the average Harley sold in
Europe will cost another $2,200, a $90 million to $100 million hit to the
bottom line annually.

As a result, Harley is shifting some of its production overseas. The
company says we are currently assessing the potential impact on our U.S.
facilities. We are hopeful the U.S. and E.U. governments will continue to
work together to reach an agreement on trade issues and rescind these

JAMES HARDIMAN, WEDBUSH SECURITIES: Things have actually moved against
them in a number of ways and thus far, the Trump economy has not been very
good for Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG).

For President Trump, Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) moving some production out
of the U.S. paints a far different picture of the company he`s embraced and
praised publicly.

Davidson for building things in America. I think you`re going to even
expand. I know your business is now doing very well and there`s a —
there`s a lot of spirit.

LEBEAU: Outgoing Speaker Paul Ryan whose district borders Harley`s
headquarters in Milwaukee reacted to the news saying, this is further proof
of the harm from unilateral tariffs. The best way to help American
workers, consumers and manufacturers is to open new markets for them, not
to raise barriers to our own market.

This is just the latest headwind for Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG). Business
has been slumping here in the U.S. where it sells almost two-thirds of its
bikes, while competition has stiffened in Asia where the company is
preparing to open a new plant in Thailand.

And in the next two years, Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) plans to expand its
production overseas, which in theory could help it limit the cost of
tariffs, all while diversifying its manufacturing footprints.



HERERA: Shares of Carnival (NYSE:CCL) sink, the most in more than two
years, and that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

The cruise line operator slashed its full-year guidance, blaming rising
fuel costs and unfavorable currency exchange rates. But the CEO says the
companies should get past that.


ARNOLD DONALD, CARNIVAL CEO: The market is reacting to a lowering of
guidance from March guidance, that`s still higher than the original
guidance for the year. We are offsetting a 19 cent drag and fueling and
currency or mitigating it, and so that resulted in a lower guidance for the
rest of the year. But the reality is that that`s all that`s going on and,
of course, we`re going to work hard to beat that.


HERERA: Shares of Carnival (NYSE:CCL) fell just about 8 percent to $58.54,
and that dragged cruise operators Norwegian and Royal Caribbean, lower by
more than 5 percent each in today`s trading.

General Electric (NYSE:GE) is selling its industrial engines unit to
private equity firm Advent International for three and a quarter billion
dollars. That move is part of the company`s plan to streamline and sell
$20 billion in assets by the end of next year.

Last month, GE sold its railroad unit for about $11 billion. GE was off
more than 2 percent to $12.75.

Kraft (NYSE:KFT) Heinz is reportedly interested in buying Campbell`s Soup.
But the report in “The New York Post” did not say if Kraft (NYSE:KFT) had
hired a bank to explore the option, which is usually a precursor to talks.
Nonetheless, investors ate it up, sending Campbell`s up more than 9 percent
to $42.23, and Kraft (NYSE:KFT) Heinz up a fraction to $63.32.

AT&T (NYSE:T) is buying digital ad company AppNexus for more than one and a
half billion dollars. The move allows AT&T (NYSE:T) to better compete with
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) for ad dollars since AppNexus
is one of the biggest digital advertising platforms. Shares of AT&T
(NYSE:T) rose two cents to $31.71.

Well, yesterday, history was made in Saudi Arabia where women were allowed
to drive for the first time. Saudi Arabia had been the only remaining
country where women had faced fines and arrests for driving.

Hadley Gamble is in Riyadh with what women behind the wheel might mean for
that kingdom`s economy.


Saudi Arabia can finally drive.

It`s just the latest move by the country`s crown prince to transform a
traditional society into a 21st century economy.

SALMA AL-SUNAID, NEW DRIVER: Saudi Arabia has come a very long way
actually. Right now with the new vision, 2030, that we have in place, with
his royal highness` announcement two years ago, we`ve seen things
accelerating significantly.

GAMBLE: But today, Saudi women make up just 22 percent of the country`s
total labor force, with the government hoping to boost those numbers to 30
percent by 2030.

And while the government hopes that putting women behind the wheel will
finally cut down on an over reliance on foreign labor, they also hope it
means added economic opportunity.

Regional ride sharing service Careem was one of the first companies to get
on board, aiming to sign up as many as 20,000 female drivers by 2030.

You decided to become a captainah for Careem.



FARAHAT: Why not? Because I can do it. Women have been ready for that
challenge for quite some time because women have been slowly integrated
into the workforce. I mean, in every field, you see women now.

GAMBLE: It`s breaking down barriers, isn`t it?


GAMBLE: And while those rapid reforms have finally put women in the
driver`s seat, questions remain over how quickly the Saudi vision can

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT in Riyadh, I`m Hadley Gamble.


HERERA: Coming up, how a start-up is using food therapy to defeat


HERERA: Here`s what to watch for tomorrow: housing grabs the spotlight
with the release of the April S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller Index and the
market will be looking to see if home prices picked up during the spring
selling season. We will also get a look at manufacturing in the mid-
Atlantic region when the Richmond Feds June index comes out, and we`ll see
how the consumer feels about the economy when the conference board posts
its latest confidence index.

And that`s what`s to watch for tomorrow.

The man in charge of the new healthcare venture established by Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN), Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), and J.P. Morgan wants to
see waste in the system reduced. Speaking over the weekend at the Aspen
Spotlight Health Conference, Atul Gawande appears to be focused on the


is our very high administrative costs, and there are a lot of middlemen in
the system and there are — have to be solutions that simplify that, take
some of the middlemen out of the system.

Second, there has to be solutions around pricing that`s another bucket.
But the biggest bucket is missed utilization. Often, it`s — meaning the
wrong care at the wrong time in the wrong way. We have the wrong care
pushing out the right care.


HERERA: The venture will initially seek to improve care for the million
individuals who get their insurance from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Berkshire
and J.P. Morgan. If successful, the blueprint could become available to
other companies as well.

Diabetes is the nation`s seventh leading cause of death, and while diabetes
medications are big business for the drug industry, the disease is still on
the rise. But as Meg Tirrell tells us in tonight`s “Modern Medicine”, one
Silicon Valley startup is trying to build its business model around food as


Sami Inkinen was shocked when he discovered he was pre-diabetic.

SAMI INKINEN, VIRTA HEALTH FOUNDER & CEO: I thought this is absolutely
nuts. Nobody can exercise more than I do and you can`t be leaner than I

TIRRELL: Inkinen found success with the ketogenic diet, a high-fat low-
carbohydrate way of eating. The co-founder of real estate company Trulia,
Inkinen spun his own experience into a new company called Virta Health.

Virta works with patients like 68-year-old Geary Moore, diagnosed more than
five years ago with diabetes. Moore was dependent on insulin to control
his blood sugar.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Keep that A1C down, no more diabetes for Geary.

GEARY MOORE, VIRTA HEALTH PATIENT: I can`t believe — I still can`t
believe it.

TIRRELL: Now, he works with a Virta doctor and coach through an app,
texting and video chats, to change his eating habits.

MOORE: All my life, I have eaten what I wanted to eat. When I eventually
found after about six or eight months of trying is that I was overeating.

TIRRELL: Since he started almost a year ago, Moore says he`s lost more
than 50 pounds and his blood sugar is under control, so much that he`s been
able to stop taking insulin.

Inkinen says 60 percent of patients reverse their diabetes on Virta`s
program, more than 90 percent of those on insulin can reduce or stop taking

INKINEN: So, it`s absolutely transformative ourselves.

TIRRELL: With those results, come cost-savings, $9,600 on average in the
first two years in drug and medical costs. The program costs $370 a month
out of pocket, unless it`s covered by employers or insurers.

For Geary Moore, it`s been worth it.

MOORE: It saved my life. So, what is your life worth?



HERERA: And before we go, here`s another look at the sell-off on Wall
Street today. The Dow dropped 328 points, the Nasdaq was down a hundred
and sixty or more than 2 percent, and the S&P 500 fell 37.

And that is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight, I`m Sue Herera, thanks for
joining us. Have a great evening and we will see you tomorrow.


Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
broadcast at The program is transcribed by ASC Services II
Media, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views
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Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
(c) 2018 CNBC, Inc.

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