Transcript: Nightly Business Report – February 15, 2017

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Sue
Herera.

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Rapid recovery. The Dow
gains more than 300 points, but some say the reversal has come too far too
fast, and the new worry is about stocks running back to records.

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: The race to one trillion.
Tech companies are growing in value, and it`s possible one could reach that
milestone this year.

MATHISEN: Tax scams. The IRS warns of new cons. And the agency says the
schemes are getting worse.

Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday,
February 15th.

HERERA: Good evening, everyone, and welcome.

What a difference a week makes. It wasn`t that long ago when stocks were
making historic and stomach turning drops. But in this market, that seems
like ancient history. Stocks today posted their fifth straight day of
gains despite a new report that points to a pick up in inflation. Interest
rates also rose to multi-year highs. But investors didn`t seem to care.
And stocks soared.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 306 points to close back above
25,000. The NASDAQ added 112. And S&P 500 was up 32.

And just as the selloff happened at breakneck speed, so did the recovery.
Mike Santoli takes a look at whether the bulls are back to stay.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIKE SANTOLI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Is the ferocious
five-day rebound rally in stocks moving a bit too fast, or is this a rare
V-shape recovery from a nasty market correction?

This is the unexpected debate investors are having now that the major
indexes have reclaimed almost two-thirds of the 11 percent loss in the
prior two weeks. Conventional Wall Street wisdom holds that steep
pullbacks usually take weeks or more to recover after an initial bounce.
The index is slipping back to recent lows in what`s known as a retest or a
base-building process.

This pattern certainly could still unfold in coming weeks, but the chance
for a quicker rebound toward the late January highs also can`t be dismissed
right now. For one thing, history says the faster the drop, the quicker it
can be recouped. The recent tumble was the fastest double-digit correction
from an all-time high in 80 years.

Then, there`s the rule of force-selling by funds that had bet on volatility
staying low. These funds unwinding bad trades last week arguably sent
stocks lower than they otherwise would have fallen in a routine fallback
due to rising interest rates. This activity seems largely out of way.

Finally, the rise in bond yields that spooked stocks has slowed, allowing
investors to come to terms with rates in a higher range in response to
strong growth. None of this means the market will indeed escape the need
for further downside test as Wall Street frets over inflation, bond yields
and high stock valuations, but the action of the past few weeks seems to
show that even after such a sharp selloff, this bull market will not go
quietly.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Mike Santoli.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: So, which stocks are solidly on the road to recovery? Our
Dominic Chu did some digging.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOMINIC CHU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: While the stock market
overall may still be a little ways away from getting back to record high
levels, certain individual stocks have done a much better job of getting
back to reclaiming some of their 52-week or better highs.

So, we took a look at the S&P 500. Turns out 93 members there are within 5
percent of getting back to those 52-week highs or perhaps even record or
multi-year highs at that level. Eighty-one stocks within the S&P have hit
their recent highs just so far this year to date period. And 13 of these
stocks have hit them again just this week alone.

So, one of the names that really has done a good job of getting back
towards those record high level, VF Corporation, the apparel company,
within about a half a percent or so of record levels. Defense contractors
fared very well in this recent bounce off the lows. Northrop Grumman
(NYSE:NOC), one of those stocks, only off by about 2/10 of one percent from
its record levels.

Tapestry, the company formally known as Coach (NYSE:COH), the retailer,
within about 1 percent. Exchange operator CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), within
about a percent as well. And of Dow component, big athletic apparel
company Nike (NYSE:NKE), within a couple of percent away from its record
highs.

So, as we talked about where the biggest bounces have been, some big names
have already gotten back to close to where they were before the recent
selloff happened.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Dominic Chu.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA: The tech sector was one of the best performing today. And for a
little while, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) surpassed Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as the
third most valuable company. But that was short lived thanks to
Microsoft`s 2 percent gain.

Of the biggest companies in the S&P 500, the top five are tech. Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) has the biggest market cap at $876 billion, followed by
Alphabet, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Facebook
(NASDAQ:FB).

MATHISEN: But which will be the first to reach that milestone, a trillion
dollars in market value?

Joining us to talk about that is Daniel Ives. He`s chief strategy officer
and head of technology research at GBH Insights.

All right. Dan, so we don`t want to bury the lead here. Which one of
those contenders is likeliest to hit a trillion dollar first? Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) has the lead.

DANIEL IVES, GBH INSIGHTS CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER: Yes, we continue to
firmly think it`s Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). And we do believe $1 trillion
happens by the end of 2018.

You know, we`ve definitely seen some sort of ups and downs with Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL), especially with the iPhone X demand. You have seen the hand
holding period over the last call-out week. You know, when I look at the
product cycle, 350 million upgrades that are up over the next 12, 18
months. And I believe that combined with the sum of the part valuation,
$300 billion buyback we think is announced in April, that`s the one that
we`re betting on in terms of the horse to hit the trillion dollar markup
first.

HERERA: But you think Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) actually has the most momentum?
Why?

IVES: Yes. I mean, if you look at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) right now — I
also think Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) does hit 1 trillion dollar. I just think
they are the second one to hit it. If you look at the consumer piece right
now, prime members, you are up to $90 million, spending 25 percent year
over year increase. And that`s only in our opinion the third, fourth
inning of this sort of consumer sort of opportunity for Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN).

Then, separately you look at the Enterprise with cloud and AWS. They are
really on the cusp, along with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), of really getting
this massive secular trend that it`s really an Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) sort of race at this point. Some of the parts on
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) — I continue to view that as a name, 15 to 20 percent
higher in terms of number. I think that`s one that investors continue to
look at as a leader.

MATHISEN: So, we can say that we like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). We like Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL). You would put fresh money. You would feel comfortable
putting fresh money in there.

What about the other two, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet? Are they
also buys in your book?

IVES: Yes, I mean, look, they`re buys. I think you separate — Microsoft
(NASDAQ:MSFT) definitely has more tailwinds just in terms of what is
happening on the cloud upgrade cycle where you are really starting to see
more enterprises move cloud with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) front and center.

When you look at Alphabet, you know, I think this quarter was shaky.
Ultimately, you look at YouTube, you look at search. The monetization
story continues to be alive and well.

And, look, you talk about tech stocks. The FANG-led recovery, we are
seeing no signs of that slowing down with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) the first to
hit $1 trillion in our opinion.

MATHISEN: Dan, thanks very much. Daniel Ives —

IVES: Thanks for having me.

MATHISEN: — with GBH Insights.

HERERA: The nominee to head the Federal Trade Commission is open to
possibly examining tech companies in response to a question about the tech
sector`s size, scope and control, Joseph Simon expressed a willingness to
look at companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) or Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) to see
if they are abusing their power.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSEPH SIMONS, FTC CHAIRMAN: The place most likely to have antitrust
problems is places that have market power, right? And so, those are the
places you want to look the most. Those are the places you want to make
sure you`re monitoring carefully and paying attention to. And if something
is — some anti-competitive conduct is occurring there, that`s where you
get a big bang for the taxpayers` buck by enforcement in those areas.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HERERA: Those comments came during Simon`s Senate confirmation hearing.

MATHISEN: To the housing market we go, where there is some bad news for
buyers. Mortgage rites rates are now at a four-year high. According to
Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 4.38 percent. And many
experts say they are going higher from here. But that doesn`t seem to
matter too much to the nation`s home builders, who remain quite upbeat
about the outlook for their business.

Diane Olick has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The nation`s home
builders seem unfazed by the sharp jump in interest rates this month and
there are several reasons why. Builder sentiment didn`t move at all in
February as measured by the National Association of Homebuilders` monthly
index. It is still up sizably from a year ago and slightly off of a high
in December. The reason for most of the optimism is the tax plan.

The home builder`s chairman said the pro-business political climate will
strengthen the housing market and support overall economic growth. He
didn`t mention mortgage rates, which are up more than a half of a
percentage point since the start this year, and continue to climb.

Not only are builders benefitting from a better economy and rising wages.
They are also reaping the rewards of a severe shortage of existing homes
for sale. One mortgage broker told me if you don`t have a contract with a
builder, things are pretty slow. Builder expectations for sales over the
next six months jumped to the highest levels since the recession even
though buyer traffic was unchanged and current sales actually fell a little
bit.

We get another read on the housing market tomorrow when we find out how
many new homes broke ground last month. The number is still running well
below historical norms and way below the current demand as builders
struggle with the shortage of land and labor.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA: So, how long can we expect builder sentiment to remain this
strong? Will there come a point where higher rates dull that optimism?

Here to discuss that is Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National
Association of Realtors.

Nice to have you here, Mr. Yun. Welcome.

LAWRENCE YUN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS: Good
evening. And thanks for having me.

HERERA: I guess that is the question, whether or not those high rates will
take a toll on the builders. What do you think?

YUN: Well, the rates will go up even further towards the end of the year,
possibly even closer to 5 percent. So, that is already, you know, people
should anticipate that. But what is happening in the housing market
currently is the massive housing shortage. Not enough inventory. Whatever
builders build, they are able to sell quickly.

So that`s why the optimism of the builders are rising. That the fact that
the profits are rising, the days on the market for newly constructed homes
is about three months. Historically, it would be close to five or six
months. So, from builders, just build it and the clients will show up.

MATHISEN: So why, apart from that new construction, Lawrence, why is
inventory so low? Why aren`t people listing their homes for sale?

YUN: The single family housing starts last year in 2017 was scratching
800,000. Historical normal would be $1.2 million. So we have been under
producing in 2017 but also in 2016, and ten years prior. So, it`s been a
multiple years of underproduction.

And now, finally, it`s catching up. We don`t have enough homes
commensurate with rising populations, job growth. The GDP will probably
grow at 3 percent this year because of the tax stimulus plan that will be
in effect. So, the job market will still remain very strong. A rising
population needs more homes. And we have been not building sufficiently.

HERERA: What interest rate level do you think might be the one that cools
this market down? I mean, it used to be 4 percent. Then some people said
it was 5 percent. When do you start to see people either pull back from
trying to buy a home or, you know, they want rates to go back down? Is
there a level that you watch?

YUN: I think there would be some shift in geography. I mean, we are
already sensing that people living in very high cost areas of California,
they are moving to Oregon. They are moving to Idaho, Utah. And we will
begin to see that trend continue into essentially people moving out of
housing in unaffordable areas into affordable areas.

So the rise in interest rate will have a play. I think what is more
important is to monitor the migration patterns of people. In our
econometric models, we are looking at possibly a 6 percent mortgage rate as
a tipping point when the home sales will begin to decline.

HERERA: On that point, Mr. Yun, thank you very much.

YUN: Thank you.

HERERA: Lawrence Yun with the National Association of Realtors.

MATHISEN: Time now to take a look at some of today`s upgrades and
downgrades.

Salesforce`s rating was raised to buy from hold at Jefferies. The firm
predicts a 20 percent rally in shares driven by strong enterprise growth.
The price target there increased to $132 a share. The stock up more than 3
percent to $113.12.

Bristol-Meyers Squibb saw its rating raised to overweight from equal weight
at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). The firm cites positive growth prospects for
its immuno oncology business. The price target lifted to $78 a share. The
stock gained 5.5 percent to $68.98.

HERERA: Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) was added to the best ideas list over at
Guggenheim. The firm cites healthy upped lying fundamentals despite
Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) issuing disappointing guidance recently. The analyst
maintains its buying on the stock the $145 price target. Shares rose 2
percent to $102.23.

The payment processor Square saw its price target raised to $43 over at
Deutsche Bank. That firm expects square to report strong fourth quarter
results later this month. The analyst is keeping his buy rating on the
stock. Square up is 6 percent to $44.29.

Still ahead, tax season can be the most profitable time of the year for
scammers. How you can keep your money safe.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: The best performing stock in the Dow this year is — Boeing
(NYSE:BA). Despite recent volatility, shares are up roughly 20 percent
since the first of January. And it follows a nearly of the 0 percent rise
last year. The CEO says he`s not surprised to see investors putting money
into his stock.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DENNIS MUILENBURG, BOEING CHAIRMAN & CEO: I think what you are seeing now
is the market is responding to what is fundamentally a very strong airplane
market, aerospace market globally, and the fact that we are delivering on
our commitments. We had promised production ramp up. We are now
delivering on that ramp up. And you can see the profitability that`s
hitting the bottom line as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HERERA: The second best performing stock in the blue chip Dow index this
year is Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO). Shares up 15 percent since January 1st and
were bumped up higher today after a strong earnings report which we told
you about last night. The company says it`s moving billions of dollars
back to the U.S. and much of it will end up in the pockets of investors.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHUCK ROBBINS, CISCO CEO: There`s several options we have. We`ve always
talked about the fact that we would leverage this capital to reduce our
share count which we announced yesterday. Obviously, to continue our
capital strategy of returning cash to our shareholders, we increased our
dividend yet again yesterday.

And then we also think we have left ourselves plenty of capacity to
continue to deliver M&A that aligns with our strategy that we have laid out
over the last two and a half years.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HERERA: Cisco`s $25 billion buyback helped put the total value of share
repurchases this year at $170 billion. That is the largest amount of
corporate buybacks at this point in a year ever. And easily tops 2016`s
$147 billion.

MATHISEN: Shake Shack serves up a solid quarter with a side of fries. And
that is where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

The burger chain reported profits and sales that surpassed estimates. But
it issued disappointing revenue guidance for the entire year. The company
also said it plans to open between 32 and 35 new restaurants this year, the
largest number of openings in a year in the company`s history. Shares
initially lower in after-hours trading but they did close up 4 percent in
the regular session at $41.21.

And after the bell, CBS (NYSE:CBS) had said a rise in content licensing and
distribution revenues help the media giant beat street targets. As we`ve
repeated, CBS (NYSE:CBS) is talking to Viacom (NYSE:VIA) about a potential
merger. Shares were volatile in after-hours but they finished the regular
day up more 1 percent to $56.74.

The food distributor U.S. Foods reported better than expected revenue and
earnings and gave an upbeat outlook for the rest of the year. This came
despite rising commodity prices. Shares climbed 9 percent to $32.87.

HERERA: TreeHouse Foods issued disappointing earnings guidance despite
better than expected quarterly results. The food and beverage manufacturer
plans to close one of its California plants. Shares of TreeHouse Foods
plunged 12 percent on the day to $37.48.

Shares of the solar panel maker SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) came under pressure
today after that company reported a disappointing outlook late yesterday.
The company cited challenges from the new U.S. tariffs that would hamper
its sales growth. SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) shares were off 1 percent to
$7.39.

And SunPower`s competitor SolarEdge says it`s not seeing a negative impact
from the new tariffs and expects any potential impact to be muted. The
company also reported quarterly results that beat analysts` estimates.
Shares of SolarEdge popped 24 percent to $45.85.

MATHISEN: Well, tax season is in full swing. And the IRS warns consumers
now about a new scam that targets your tax refunds. And while this
particular scam may be new, the story remains basically the same. The tax
filing season is one of the most popular times for cyber criminals to steal
your personal information and your refunds.

Joining us to talk about these scams and what you can do to protect
yourself is Caleb Barlow. He`s vice president of threat intelligence for
IBM Security.

Caleb, welcome. Good to have you with us.

CALEB BARLOW, IBM SECURITY: Great to be here.

MATHISEN: I am assuming that a lot of these scams present themselves in
the form of e-mails, some of which may present themselves in the form of e-
mails from the IRS. Does the IRS ever reach out to people by e-mail?

BARLOW: No. The IRS is not going to reach out to you via e-mail. In
fact, they are more often than not going to use the classic old U.S. Postal
Service. And, of course, in a time where we are seeing lots of confusion
around new tax regulations, we are likely to see a significant increase in
spam associated with tax filing to try to lure you in.

HERERA: Well, obviously, they want to get some of your tax information.
What else are these thieves after?

BARLOW: Well, they are after your tax information. They are after really
any personal information that can be used to mount an attack or to
potentially file fraudulently on your behalf.

You know, last year, IBM`s X-Force Threat Researchers saw a 6,000 percent
increase in spam associated with tax filings between December and February
of last year.

MATHISEN: What are some of the other scams that you are seeing apart from
the ones that you sort of alluded to, which would be a purported e-mail
from the IRS?

BARLOW: Well, a very common thing we will also see this time of year that
is affecting more of enterprises versus consumers is something called a
business e-mail compromise. So, you might see an e-mail that looks like
it`s maybe from CEO, the CFO or a corporate officer, asking you to maybe
send all of the company`s W2s to a specific address or provide some other
form of information that bad guys can then use and harvest to file
fraudulently on behalf of individuals that work there.

HERERA: Is it better for a consumer to file electronically? Or is it
better to do it through the U.S. Postal Service? Does it make a difference
in terms of protecting your personal information?

BARLOW: Well, I tell you what. That`s a great question. And you know, if
this year is anything like last year, about 155 million tax returns will be
filed. Now, 70 percent of which are looking for a refund, but here`s where
this gets interesting. Of that 58 million people will wait until after
April 1st to file.

So, this is the real issue. It`s not so much about how you file. It`s how
long you wait. Because if you wait until after April 1st, you are giving
the bad guys all the way from the beginning of February to April to file
fraudulently before you do.

MATHISEN: So the bottom line there is file as soon as you get all of your
1099s and your W2s, right, Caleb?

BARLOW: Yes, that`s exactly right. The other thing you can do, for
example, is sign up for a pin from the IRS. Don`t delay in filing and, you
know, really be vigilant with your e-mail inbox. Don`t click on those
messages that are talking about, you know, savings on taxes or maybe even
be careful of even the white paper that`s talking about how to explain
taxes to you.

You know, just go out and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) those things directly on the
web versus clicking on that link.

MATHISEN: I`m going to lock myself in a room between now and April 17th.

Caleb, thank you, with IBM Security.

BARLOW: Thank you.

MATHISEN: You bet.

HERERA: And I guess don`t file an extension.

Coming up, a new twist on the old adage, shop until you drop.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: President Trump has reportedly backed a 25 cent a gallon hike in
the federal gasoline tax as a way to help fund his infrastructure proposal.
This is the equivalent of a $27 billion tax increase annually on consumers
according to one estimate. It could wipe out about 60 percent of
individuals` savings from the new tax law. The federal gas tax has not
been raised since 1993.

HERERA: A higher tax on gasoline would mean less money in consumers`
pockets. That could hurt a retail industry that`s already struggling. But
some brands are finding some new ways to get shoppers excited again.

Andrea Day discovered the secret to their success.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANDREA DAY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: A rush to get in line
at Supreme in New York City. The brand launching its spring collection.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s probably the hottest brand right now.

DAY: Weeks before a frenzy to get inside Ralph Lauren in SoHo.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People get hyped about it and it creates the buzz.

DAY: The buzz? Ralph bringing back a popular line called Snow Beach, a
limited collection of shirts, jackets and sneakers.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s iconic. When I was a kid I always wanted that. I
couldn`t afford it.

DAY: It`s called a drop, where a limited number of products are released
to the public, sometimes without any official notice.

What creates this rush to buy?

We sat down with Daniella Vitale, the CEO of Barney`s New York.

DANIELLA VITALE, BARNEY`S NEW YORK CEO: For us, and Barney`s has always
been so good at this. How do we create something in the store that really
is incredible?

DAY: For the luxury retailer, it was a recent initiative called the drop
at Barney`s.

VITALE: Not only exclusive merchandise but we had a host of amazing
designers, music. There were 10,000 people that came in that Saturday.

DAY: And she says 20 percent were new to the retailer.

What does the future look like?

VITALE: I think that becomes a permanent part of our vernacular at
Barney`s.

DAY: Some retailer exclusives are so hot, the sold out goods are ending up
on secondary markets, where they sell way above the original price.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is from the collection that they dropped last
year.

DAY: Victor Guzman is in the business of buying up limited edition street
wear dropped by the brand Supreme and reselling it a profit. For him,
Thursday mornings are set aside for Supreme. That`s when the brand
typically drops its new collections and thousands try to score at the New
York City score and online.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m on like four different computers.

DAY: How quickly do things sell out?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Seconds. Literally seconds.

DAY: And one of the most competitive secondary markets is for limited
edition sneakers, where some resellers unleash computer bots or automated
programs to buy shoes being sold online in the blink of an eye.

IDO SAFRIUTI, PERIMETERX CO-FOUNDER: Sticker bots. We know that the
secondary market is going at about $175 billion.

DAY: Ido Safriuti is the cofounder of Perimeter X, the company
specializing in preventing malicious bots.

SAFRIUTI: In some cases, you see more than 90 percent of the checkouts or
the actual purchased items will be done by bots.

DAY: And there is a law in place making it illegal for bots to buy tickets
for events like concerts, but no law right now for buying retail like
clothing.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Andrea Day.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: Fortune has compiled its annual list of the best companies to
work for. And it takes into account pay benefits and places that give
employees a sense of purpose.

Number one on the list, Salesforce. It encourages employee philanthropy
among other things.

Second is Wegman`s. The supermarket chain offers scholarships to its
employees.

Third on the list is Ultimate Software, which matches 401(k) contributions
at 40 percent and pays all medical and dental costs.

HERERA: Wow.

All right, before we go. On Wall Street, stocks rose for the fifth
straight day and the Dow gained 306 points to 25,200. The Nasdaq added
112. The S&P 500 was up 32. Another rollercoaster day.

OK. That does it for us tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.

MATHISEN: And thanks from me as well. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a great
evening, everybody. Hope to see you back here tomorrow night.

END

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