CONTESSA BREWER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Tail spin? Oil prices
enter a bear market, trading 20 percent below their most recent peak and
there`s a chance the decline could deepen.
BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Fashion forward. Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) has already changed the way we shop and now, it`s sending a
chill through the retail sector again.
BREWER: Pricey packages. Why your holiday shopping just got a little bit
Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Tuesday, June
And good evening, everyone. I`m Contessa Brewer, in for Sue Herera.
GRIFFETH: And I`m Bill Griffeth, in tonight for Tyler Mathisen.
It is official now. Oil prices have fallen into bear market territory.
That means that they are more than 20 percent below their most recent peak,
which was reached in January, marking the lowest settlement price for oil
Domestic crude fell by 2 percent today, closed around $43 a barrel. The
reason for the decline is a familiar one. There`s simply too crude on the
market and not enough demand. The world`s biggest oil producers tried to
fix the problem.
But as Jackie DeAngelis tells us now, the fix is showing some cracks.
JACKIE DEANGELIS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Crude oil lower
again on concerns about oversupply, which is not what is supposed to be
happening right now. OPEC is committed to cutting output this year, but
some member countries like Libya and Nigeria, are cheating.
JIM IUDRIO, TJM INSTITUTIONAL SERVICES: I think there`s a couple of
different reasons for oil`s decline and they cannot culminate it in a
perfect storm. First was the belief that OPEC didn`t have the same control
over the oil market that they once did, so when they agreed to production
cuts, the market started to decline as well. Then I think the market
believes that the OPEC members were beginning to become frustrated with
that situation and that exacerbated the move lower.
And we`ve talked for years — supply, supply, supply. There`s a ton of
supply still. So, right now, I think everybody is talking about the
bearish reasons for crude to go lower. So, I`m starting to worry about
this a little bit now because it seems like everyone is one side of the
DEANGELIS: Adding to the pressure, demand is not rising to meet the extra
supply, and it should be this time of year.
Over is 100 degree temperatures on parts of the West Coast, combined with
continued rain on the East Coast, keeping travelers at home.
Finally, North American production, the U.S. and Canada, both forecasted to
rise significantly. The U.S. could produce a record 10 million barrels a
day by next year, according to government data. And IHS (NYSE:IHS) Markit
says Canada could ramp up to 3 million barrels a day in the next two years.
The question now, how low can we go?
IUDRIO: I definitely think the $30s are a possibility medium term. I
think before that happens, we`re due for a bounce. Like I said before, I
think that people are positioned short quite a bit and I think we can get a
bounce from the $42.5 area up towards $48. At that point in time, I think
we resume the trend lower and that leg lower gets us into the $30s for
sure, in my opinion, $38, $37.
DEANGELIS: Fourth of July is the peak of the summer driving season, now
only two weeks away. Without the seasonal boost for crude prices, some say
it could be a while before we see $50 again.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jackie DeAngelis.
BREWER: And joining us now to talk more about oil, where he sees prices
head, is John Kilduff. He`s the founding partner of Again Capital. We
just heard the trader there talking about mid $30s.
What`s your take?
JOHN KILDUFF, AGAIN CAPITAL FOUNDING PARTNER: I think that`s right.
Although I don`t necessarily agree with this trip back up to $48 a barrel.
The chickens have really come home to roost here for OPEC and Russia, who
did come together is as mention in November to try to fix this market.
Fact of the matter is, they`ve done too little in not enough amount of
time, and the problem they`re having now is if they didn`t have a count on
two big countries coming back online with their oil production, that being
the country of Nigeria and the country of Libya, who are now dumping about
2 million barrels a day of oil on the market, that was not planned for.
GRIFFETH: And, John, what role do U.S. producers play in all of this? I
mean, in the last few months, we`ve seen more and more come back online
again. That`s even more supply.
KILDUFF: That`s even more supply, Bill, and it`s a wave of that oil yet to
come. The biggest uptick in production so far this year, really most of
it, has come believe it or not from long planned projects in the Gulf of
Mexico, even though the shale producers get all the credit and all the
glory like a wide receiver on a football team, the heavy lifting and
tackling was done in the goal (ph).
So, we`re still going to — we have yet to cash in on it, if you will, the
super high-rise in the U.S. rig count that`s going to bring us a lot more
oil. I think we get to ten million barrels per day before the end of the
BREWER: And one thing that we haven`t mentioned is all the upheaval in the
Middle East. There`s been this diplomatic back and forth with South Arabia
and some of its neighbors, the disturbances in Syria. How do you factor
those issues into what happens with oil?
KILDUFF: I have to say that is a potential booby trap for lack of a better
word, for the consensus view or my view that prices go to $38. This is a
powerful bear market that we`re able to shake off, the seeming troubles
that are there. The rhetoric is as hot as I`ve ever seen it in my career.
You have Saudi Arabia and Iran really at each other`s throats I think like
never before and what you`re hearing about the situation in Syria and Qatar
leaves this thing a real opportunity to blow wide open.
We had Iran and China doing naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz where
40 percent of the world`s oil transits through. So — just this weekend.
There is definite concern about that situation.
BREWER: John Kilduff with Again Capital — John, so great of you to join
KILDUFF: Thank you, Contessa.
GRIFFETH: Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices maybe one of the reasons
why inflation remains relatively low right now. Today, the president of
the Chicago Federal Reserve said he is concerned about the soft inflation
data and that it may be best if the Central Bank waits until year end to
decide whether to raise interest rates yet again.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHARLES EVANS, FED RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO PRESIDENT: I have voted with
the committee on the rate increases so far. And that`s in part because I
think that the fundamentals for the economy are good. I think that the
unemployment rate falling to 4.3 is good. I think it`s likely that we will
see more inflationary pressures, but I`m nervous. So, I think that our
current stance in policy, even though we`ve increased the funds rate by 100
basis points from the floor, I think it`s still accommodating (ph). So, I
think, up to this point, I think that we can still expect that inflation
will go up to 2 percent.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFFETH: As he suggested, Mr. Evans is a voting member of the Fed`s
policy committee right now and he added that some of the challenges in
getting inflation to that 2 percent target are global competition and new
BREWER: The falling oil prices drag energy stocks lower, including two Dow
components, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX). And that in turn
weighed on the broader market with the Dow and S&P 500 retreating from all
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61 points to 21,467, the NASDAQ was
off 50 and the S&P 500 dropped 16.
GRIFFETH: And the retail sector was also weak today. This after Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) took yet another swing at the industry that it`s been
reshaping. The online company is now launching a new clothing delivery
service. The concern for retailers is that this new competitor will lead
the lower prices and narrower margins, something the industry is already
Bob Pisani has more for us tonight.
BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Today, it was retail
stocks that took a dive as the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) juggernaut rolled on.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) rolled out Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) wardrobe where they
attempted to tackle some of the biggest problems with buying clothes, the
time it takes to shop, for example, and the hassle for finding the right
size and returning stuff you don`t want.
Judging by the market`s reaction, it looks like the street believes Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) has advantage considerably. Big retail names like Nordstrom
(NYSE:JWN), JCPenney, Chico`s and discounters like Ross Stores
(NASDAQ:ROST), all down 3 to 8 percent or more. That`s a lot. It`s a
simple idea. Try before you buy, and you only pay for what you keep. So,
you pick out three items or more, you got shipping for free and you have
seven days to try this stuff on and decide what to keep. Simple idea.
The real genius is the return policy. You get 10 percent off if you keep
three or four items. You get 20 percent off if you keep five or more. The
more you keep, the more you save.
You dump the rest in the box and you leave at your doorstep. You don`t
even need to be home when they come by to pick it up for free. In theory
now, this is not a retail apocalypse, since it appears Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)
will support brands that are outside Amazon`s private label, including for
example, Calvin Klein, Adidas, Hugo Boss and some others.
Well, that may be true, but the market didn`t act that way. For example,
every large shoe maker which theoretically could also sell through Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) was down 2 to 3 percent, including Deckers and Skechers and
Steve Madden. Tough day.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.
GRIFFETH: So, from shoes to food, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) certainly is
reshaping how the retail industry works and it may be about to do the same
for the economy as a whole. As some economists now believe that this deal
with Whole Foods could push down food prices and therefore, inflation.
Jack McIntyre is fixed income portfolio strategist at Brandywine Global.
He joins us tonight to talk about that.
What do you think, Jack? I mean, we know that competition is good, it
keeps prices lower. Technology`s bringing prices lower. What about this?
The impact it will have on the food business?
JACK MCINTYRE, BRANDYWINE GLOBAL: So, I agree. I mean, you`re marrying it
and you`ve alluded to it, competition and technology. Those two things are
already disinflationary, deflationary. The fact that you`re bringing them
close together, to me, it`s just plain to see that we are in secular
disinflationary pressures. That`s great if you`re a bond investor.
BREWER: How much of this, jack, really has to do with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)
getting in getting into the wardrobe business in ways they`re not already?
MCINTYRE: Yes, so, I think again, I think about the competitive nature of
what they`re doing, and you`re introducing a behemoth into different
sectors. And again, this is just — we don`t know ten years from now how
this is going to ultimately sort of play out. But anytime you introduce,
you know, a major competitor that`s backed by technological advances, it is
going to ultimately lead to greater competition and that`s going to see
lower prices or better quality. In this case, I think you`re going to see
both of those.
BREWER: You`re the fixed income guy, and there`s a conundrum in the
treasury markets right now. Yields have been hovering near year lows
lately, even as the economy continues to grow. Is it because you think the
markets sense this lower inflation that the Feds is ringing its hands over
MCINTYRE: Yes, I agree. So, if you look at the yield curve, it`s been
flattening. So, that tells you the market is not worried about
inflationary pressures. I actually think we`re in a little bit in a sweet
spot right now because there is decent economic growth. It`s just that
that growth I inflationary. So, it`s an environment where I think equities
can do well. Certainly bonds can continue to do well, because inflation is
going to be contained and this whole idea of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) buying
Whole Foods just reinforces that.
BREWER: Well, is there a risk of deflation — that comes along with
deflation if you`re gaming it out and looking, say, ten years in the
MCINTYRE: No, I don`t, because again, I think the model that sort of
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is taking reminds me a little bit of what China is
trying to do. They go in. They focus on get market share, worry less
about profits and then eventually, when they sort of, you know, they`ll see
a lot of their competition go away. They`ll be in a position to actually
start raising prices.
Focus on profits, increasing their profit margin, and that ultimately could
be inflationary. But again, that`s probably not until ten years down the
GRIFFETH: Very, very interesting. Jack McIntyre with Brandywine Global —
good to see you. Thanks for joining us tonight.
MCINTYRE: Good to see you. Thank you.
BREWER: Still ahead, there`s one place where prices soon will rise and
though it`s only June, holiday shoppers should pay some close attention.
BREWER: One of the word`s biggest index providers will add Chinese
equities to its global emerging markets benchmark beginning next year.
Now, we told you yesterday was being considered MSCI`s decision to add some
shares to the widely tracked index could move hundreds of billions of
dollars of funds from asset managers and pension funds to mainland China`s
equity markets over the next decade.
GRIFFETH: Well, a record quarter for FedEx (NYSE:FDX). The package
delivery company reported higher than expected profit and higher sales in
its ground and freight delivery business units today. FedEx (NYSE:FDX) has
been spending billions of dollars to upgrade its networks to handle the
rise in package delivery volumes and investors may feel that it has paid
off. They sent the stock initially higher in late day trade tonight.
BREWER: And if you do a lot of your holiday shopping online, it may cost
you a bit more.
Morgan Brennan tells us what UPS is doing to keep up with the growing
number of packages that need to be delivered.
MORGAN BRENNAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Online shopping
could become more expensive. For the first time ever, UPS is adding an
extra charge to packages shipped during the busiest weeks of the holiday
season. A 27 cent fee will be levied on ground deliveries destined for
residential doorsteps, ship in the days around the Black Friday and to the
week leading up to Christmas.
And charges will also apply to some next day errand oversized shipments.
The move comes as UPS, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and the U.S. Postal Service have
scrambled to keep pace with e-commerce growth, growth that`s pushed up cost
and made it harder to make money, especially during the peak season when
more planes, trucks and workers are needed for the infrastructure to keep
up with demand.
UPS` CEO David Abney discussed those challenges in an interview just last
DAVID ABNEY, UPS CHAIRMAN AND CEO: The surge pricing is just making sure
that during that time of year when customers, certain customers give us a
lot more packages, if it drives our cost, we simply want to be compensated
for that cost.
BRENNAN: UPS has also previously said it may charge some retail customers
for missed forecast, meaning the packages they expected to ship, but never
actually did. It all translates to higher shipping costs for companies
trying to capitalize on e-commerce — even Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
DONALD BROUGHTON, BROUGHTON CAPITAL: And you have costs are going up and
people are willing to pay for it, you`re going to find marketplace
participants raising price. And I would point t that last year, UPS did
what I would call a shadow increase and that they started, they announced
in December that in order to get two-day service, you had to pay for next
And they did a bit of shadow surcharge last year. And this year, they`ve
been more transparent about it and I would expect FedEx (NYSE:FDX) to
BRENNAN: The move by UPS will force retailers like Walmart, Macy`s
(NYSE:M) and Target (NYSE:TGT) to decide whether to eat those costs or
raise shipping prices for consumers, the move seen as risky in the age of
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime.
BRANDON OGLENSKI, BARCLAYS CAPITAL: As we reach these capacity maximums,
you know, we`re seeing the Post Office raised rates. We`re seeing UPS
implement a peak surcharge. I think that just says, in the future, we`re
going to have to decide, do we want to pick up that package out of Whole
Foods or Walgreens location, or do we pay for the luxury of having it
delivered right to our doorstep.
BRENNAN: The other alternative, divert business to another shipping firm,
like the U.S. Postal Service, which is less likely to follow suit with
extra charges of its own.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Morgan Brennan.
GRIFFETH: Boeing (NYSE:BA) raises its long-term delivery forecast and
that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.
The aircraft maker said that it expects to see heightened demand from the
aerospace industry over the next 20 years, and as a result, it now plans to
deliver about 41,000 planes valued at more than $6 trillion. Boeing
(NYSE:BA) shares fell fractionally today at $198.33.
Homebuilder Lennar (NYSE:LEN) is seeing strong demand for new homes right
now. The company reported an increase in sales and said that quarterly
orders hit a ten-year high. Earnings took a hit, though, from charges
related to a recent acquisition. But overall, profit and sales were better
than expected and Lennar (NYSE:LEN) shares rose 2 percent to $53.87.
BREWER: Novartis said its experimental medication for treating vision loss
was just as effective in a study trial as rival treatment made by Regeneron
Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN). Novartis also said the trial showed
patients didn`t need to receive as many injections as they would with
Regeneron`s drug. But Novartis doesn`t plan to file for regulatory
approval until next year. As a result, Regeneron shares rose 5 percent to
$495.33, while Novartis was up a fraction to 81.60.
And enterprise software provider Red Hat (NYSE:RHT) raised its earnings and
sales outlook for the year, after reporting earnings and revenue ahead of
estimates. The company cited robust global demand and increased commitment
from its largest customers. Shares initially took off in after-hours
trading, but ended the regular session down marginally to $89.96.
GRIFFETH: For the first time now, Uber is going to allow drivers to
collect tips through the company`s smartphone app. The decision is part of
a broader effort to improve the company`s relationship with its drivers.
Drivers have long argued that tips would help compensate for decrease
wages. The feature will be available by the end of July.
BREWER: A lot of grumbling in the newsroom here when that came through.
The heat wave in the Southwest is testing the California power grid. The
operator is calling for voluntary electricity conservation in the afternoon
and evening. This is first such alert of this year. Officials say
consumers shouldn`t use major appliances during those hours and turn off
In Phoenix, American Airlines cancelled some shorter flights that used
aircraft that can`t operate in temperatures of 118 degrees or higher.
GRIFFETH: Coming up, is the tax code and too old for the modern era? The
speaker of the House thinks so and he`s outlining his plans to change it.
BREWER: The speaker of the House is optimistic that tax reform can get
done this year. Investors, of course, are paying close attention, hoping
it would mean robust economic growth.
Brian Sullivan talked to Speaker Paul Ryan today at a conference in
BRIAN SULLIVAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Today, Paul Ryan
used a gathering of manufacturing executives in Washington, D.C. to outline
his call for broad-based tax reform. In a speech to the conference in
Washington, the House speaker laid out why the U.S. tax code is too long
and too old for the modern era and detailed his plans to simplify it.
REP. PAUL RYAN (R-WI), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: I`m here to tell you — we
are going to get this done in 2017. We have to get this done in 2017. We
cannot let this once in a generation moment slip by.
SULLIVAN: This comes at a crucial time for him and the GOP, as House
Republicans work to push through their legislative agenda, racing against
the clock of the summer congressional recess, and, of course, trying to get
it all done in the shadow of the Russia probe.
Ryan remains optimistic that all the attention and headlines will not
scuttle their plans.
RYAN: The Intelligence Committee isn`t writing tax reform. The Ways and
Means Committee writes tax reform. The Ways and Means Committee is not
involved in this investigation. They`re busy working on tax reform.
So, the Intelligence Committee is going to go do investigation. The
special counsel is doing his investigation. The Senate Intelligence
Committee is doing theirs.
Meanwhile, the Ways and Means Committee, the Finance Committee in the House
and Senate, they`re doing tax reform. Just like the Commerce Committee is
working on energy reform. Just like the Judiciary Committee is working on
SULLIVAN: Ryan`s plan is similar to the president`s, in that it proposes
to cut the number of tax brackets from seven down to three. He also wants
to eliminate most itemized reductions, only keeping those for mortgage
interest, retirement accounts and charitable giving, which Ryan says means
any federal deductions for state and local taxes paid may have to go.
RYAN: Let`s stop masking profligate governments. Let`s stop disguising
the inefficiencies of some of these state governments you just mentioned.
SULLIVAN: That deduction largely taken by those living in high income high
tax states like New York and California, states that overwhelmingly vote
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT in Washington, D.C., I`m Brian Sullivan.
GRIFFETH: Meanwhile, Republican senators are raising against the clock on
their own on health care. And today, they promised to release their bill
on Thursday. The goal is to produce and vote on a health care bill before
Congress leaves for its traditional July 4th recess.
Kayla Tausche reports now on the progress and the sticking points.
KAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: After weeks of
behind the scenes deal-making, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will
take the wraps off health care.
SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY), MAJORITY LEADER: We`re going to lay out a
discussion draft Thursday morning. You`ll be able to take a look at it. I
think you heard from some of my colleagues the likely highlights of it and
I wouldn`t want to compare it to the House bill. It will speak for itself.
TAUSCHE: The privacy negotiations providing fuel for Democrats.
SEN. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D), NEW YORK: I don`t know what`s in the bill.
Our colleagues who are working in secret right now seem to have a
disturbing lack of interest in transparency.
TAUSCHE: Republicans can only lose two votes. Even lawmakers involved in
the talks like Senator Ted Cruz say there`s still a lot of work to do.
The party`s priorities vary widely. Some like Cruz insists on lowering
premiums. Others worry most about excluding large numbers of Americans
with preexisting conditions. Lawmakers from states that expanded Medicaid
want to make sure cuts to that program won`t cause a number of uninsured to
The plan reportedly proposes deeper spending cuts to Medicaid, but defers
the end of the expansion to 2025.
Governors like Colorado`s John Hickenlooper have been pressing senators to
consider their views.
GOV. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D), COLORADO: You know, in the end, the governors
are the ones to have to implement this stuff. And certainly, the House
bill, almost every governor thought it was a terrible idea.
TAUSCHE: The president previously praised that bill.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is a great plan.
TAUSCHE: But has since said privately the Senate`s version needs to be
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said the president has been
involved in the negotiations with the Senate leadership, but didn`t know
whether he had seen any portions of the bill just yet.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche, Washington.
BREWER: Health care and tax reform are both central to the broader White
House agenda. And today, the special congressional election in Georgia is
being viewed as a referendum on that agenda. And it`s gaining national
John Harwood is in Atlanta tonight.
So, John, this is the most expensive race, House race in history. Why is
there so much money and so much attention?
JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Fifty-one million
dollar so far, Contessa. The reason is we`ve had some special elections
this year, but this is the first one where Democrats had a legitimate shot
to win. In fact, this is the kind of district they need to win if they`re
going to win the House back in 2018. It`s very Republican, but a lot of
college educated Republicans, that is Donald Trump`s weakest Republican
So, money, attention, volunteers have poured in here. Democrats are trying
to win with Jon Ossoff, a young inexperienced candidate. Republicans have
Karen Handel. Turnout has been high today, although we`ve got a lot of
rain this afternoon.
GRIFFETH: You know, I keep hearing how important this race is between
those two candidates right there, John, but I don`t hear the issues. What
are those issues that could decide the outcome on this?
HARWOOD: Well, really, the backdrop, Bill, for this race is Donald Trump.
The candidates, Karen Handel doesn`t like to talk about Donald Trump and
Jon Ossoff isn`t talking about him that much either because he doesn`t want
to inflame Republicans who are disproportionately represented in this
But what is pushing the money in and what`s pushing the enthusiasm and the
turnout are feelings about Donald Trump, his approval rating, his 35
percent in this district, 26 percent of Republicans disapprove of his
performance so far. That`s higher than the national average.
That would be a good sign for Democrats, except there`s so many Republicans
in this district. Polls overall had been very close right up to the end.
BREWER: But really, this is one race. If the Republicans do lose this one
district, does it really affect the overall Republican agenda?
HARWOOD: Well, it could. And that turns on whether or not if Ossoff wins,
for example, if Republicans suddenly become spooked and say, hey, all of
our seats are in danger next year. We`ve got to run away from Donald
Trump, if that means running away from his agenda.
On the other hand, if Karen Handel can hold this seat, they might be calmed
down and be able to say, OK, steady as she goes.
BREWER: John Harwood in Atlanta — John, thank you.
And that`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Contessa Brewer.
Thank you for watching.
GRIFFETH: Good night, Contessa.
I`m Bill Griffeth. Have a great evening, everybody. We will see you back
here again tomorrow.
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