SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Historic day. The Dow hit
20,000 for the first time in its 120-year history. Now the hard part — figuring out where stocks go from here.
BILL GRIFFETH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: If you build it. The
president signs an executive order calling for a wall on the U.S./Mexican
border and a handful of companies could come out winners.
HERERA: Best of the best. What some top-rated fund managers are doing
with their money right now in this market.
Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Wednesday,
Good evening, everyone. I`m Sue Herera.
GRIFFETH: And I`m Bill Griffeth, in tonight for Tyler Mathisen. And I`m
coming to you this evening from the place where history was made today,
namely at the New York Stock Exchange.
Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally did it, arguably the most
well-known market index in the world. It topped 20,000 for the first time
ever today. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at new records as well. And
despite the S&P really being the broader, more representative look at the
market and the economy, retail investors still tend to focus on the Dow —
an index made up of some iconic American brands out there.
Let`s get right to the closing numbers for this day. The blue chip average
rallied by 155 points to close at 20,068, when all is said and done. The
NASDAQ added 55. That`s a new record. The S&P up by 18, also a new record
Dominic Chu has been tracking the action from the floor of the big board
for us all day. He joins us now.
So, what got to us this historic high here, Dominic?
DOMINIC CHU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: So, it`s been a long
time coming, months. We`ve been sitting there talking about it for such a
long time. Today, it was really about one stock in particular that really
propelled us in the pre-market that got to us open right at that 20,000
mark and above it and that was Boeing (NYSE:BA) on the heels of strong
earnings. Boeing (NYSE:BA) alone accounted for nearly 50 points of the
Dow`s advance today. So, a huge chunk of what happened in the action
On the other side of the equation, you`ve got United Technologies
(NYSE:UTX), which is on the bigger drags on the heels of its earnings
report. So, it only took about four or five points off the overall
picture. But still, if you look at Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), IBM, and namely
Boeing (NYSE:BA), those three stocks added the most of the advance today.
HERERA: So, Dom, if an investor happen to put $10,000 at or near the
market lows, what would have happened?
CHU: You know, timing the market is always a tough thing. But if do you
look at the way you systematically invest, if you kind of bought along the
way and you managed to buy at the lows, you got a good return on your
investment and here`s what we`re talking about.
CHU: If you invested $10,000 in the Dow at its lowest point during the
financial crisis back in 2009, just two years later, your money almost
doubled on over $19,500. Five months later, during euro crisis, your money
investment takes a hit. It`s now worth a little over $16,200. But with
the Dow rising, crossing 17,000, your investments are up again, now over
150 percent and worth almost $26,000.
Over the next couple of years, the stock market remains stuck in a trading
range, with the Dow trying at various times to break out higher. But
concerns about global markets and the effects of possibly higher interest
rates caused two bigger pullbacks in the summer of 2015 and the early part
of 2016. With markets covering near record highs, it would take major
catalyst to jump start things and that`s just what happened in the wake of
the presidential election victory by Donald Trump in November of 2016.
So, your initial investment has now tripled in value at Dow 20,000, coming
in at over $30,000.
GRIFFETH: Would have, should have, could have.
Dom, stay right there.
Let`s bring in the rest of our panel. A bull and a bear, so to speak, for
their thoughts on where the market may go from here.
Jim Paulsen is chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. He
is the bull.
Sam Stovall is chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Now, Sam, let me start with you. You`re not an outright bear but you are
cautious on this market right now. What are some of your concerns?
SAM STOVALL, CFRA RESEARCH CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST: That`s right
there, Bill. I think basically what Dom said is if you are an investor for
the very long term, you want to focus on or worry about recessions and I
don`t see one on the horizon.
However, I do think that I have to advise people that, look, these declines
of 5 or 10 percent or more tend to happen more frequently than we might
think. Whenever we have a 1,000 point move in the Dow, traditionally, we
end up falling into a 5 percent decline a little more than after the fact.
Yet, this is first time we`ve gone more than 2,000 levels without seeing a
resetting of the dial. The last two times were 1999 and 2007.
Also, we typically find that, I would say almost nine times out of ten, the
S&P does trade in a negative year-to-date territory at any point in the
year. And about 70 percent of the time, it happens in the first quarter of
Valuations or P/E ratios, if this bull market ended today, it would be the
second most expensive since World War II.
HERERA: All right. Sam makes some good points, Jim. However, you think
that the underpinnings to this market are still pretty firm, and that the
move that we just described basically happened well before the election.
Perhaps the election was a further catalyst. But you saw this happening
during the summer.
JAMES PAULSEN, WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST: Yes.
I think, Sue, that a lot of the underpinnings of this latest rally were
started last summer. We had a big growth in the United States. We were
growing below 2 percent for the previous year prior to the third quarter.
Then, we jumped to 3.5 percent and growing probably three in the fourth
quarter as well. We had a pick-up in U.S. growth.
I think this recovery, Sue, has finally reached the middle class in the
United States. As w reach full employment, wages are finally chiming.
Real median income has finally started to come up as well. So, broader
participation, this recovery. Globally, the positive global economic index
has been just reached a 6 1/2 year high. That says that there`s more
economies finally participating in this recovery across the globe than
almost any other time in the recovery.
The earnings cycle, we just restarted it, refreshed it. It`s
reaccelerating again. Our concerns about global deflation have been
arrested, as inflation is showing signs of moving higher. Interest rates
are moving away from zero. The Federal Reserve is normalizing monetary
A lot of good things in addition to the Trump presidency that I think
underpin this. For the first time, I would argue, confidence is starting
to emerge and this recover about the future, and I think that might
generate one last big leg in this stock market.
GRIFFETH: Dom, sentiment on Wall Street itself is rather interesting. The
fear indicator that was most widely followed, the volatility index, the VIX
as it is affectionately known, is at a two and a half year low. And some
people wonder if that is just complacency. People are expecting the market
to go higher here.
CHU: Art Cashin, who`s a senior trader on the floor of the change here,
has said a number of time over the course of the past few days and weeks,
that the low level of stock market volatility is an indicator of that kind
of thing, and that should be a caution sign for certain investors out
I will say this though — hearing what Sam had to say and what Jim had to
say. There are a number of themes they`re watching. The traders I spoke
down here today, too, have said they`re looking particularly at the
financial sectors. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) are
some both Dow components and they`re both some of the best performing
stocks since the election. If those bank-related stocks or financials can
do well, that could bode well for the future, but it`s one of those
barometers that some traders are watching.
HERERA: You know, Sam, there are a number of people we`ve interviewed here
on NBR who say one of the worries is that this market may be priced to
perfection in terms of what the expectations are for the new
administration. And if for example, they get bogged down in reforming
health care and don`t get regulatory side of things done, that the market
might take a hit.
Are you worried about the Washington agenda and the success of that agenda?
STOVALL: Yes, I`m a bit concerned about that. I think certainly we have
very optimistic rhetoric coming out of the White House. What if it falls
on deaf ears in Congress? They realized that 77 percent — where we have
77 percent debt to GDP ratio right now, and it`s only getting worse, and
through a lot of the programs, they have to reduce expenditures for every
dollar that`s been added.
So I think that Congress is a bit more conservative. And as a result,
might end up pushing back.
GRIFFETH: Jim, the sectors that have benefited to this point, energy with
talk of reopening the Keystone pipeline and the Dakota Access pipeline,
banks, industrial companies, they want to bring jobs here to the United
States. Are those the sectors you want to invest in? They`ve already seen
big rallies here or do you look elsewhere to find value right now?
PAULSEN: I still like those, Bill. I think that you want to stay, if
you`re in the United States, leaning more toward those economically
sensitive sectors. I think do you until the long term interest rates go up
significantly more. Ten-year tonight is around 2.5 percent. I really
think that some work we`ve done suggest we might have to get up around 3
1/4 or higher before it really starts to bite into the stock market run
And in the meantime, I think it`s going to continue to be led by the more
economically sensitive areas. I — right now, I would be a little shy
toward materials but I certainly would go to energy stocks, financials,
look at small cap and mid cap more than large.
And don`t forget. I would be overweight in international stocks which, by
the way, are beating the U.S. market this year.
GRIFFETH: All right. Very good. Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management,
Sam Stovall of CFRE Research, and our own Dominic Chu — thank you,
gentlemen, very much.
HERERA: The Dow first crossed 10,000 in March of 1999. But the financial
crisis as we mentioned wiped out those gains. The index last breached that
leave in 2009, and since then, two well known components outperformed their
peers. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is one of them.
And here`s Diana Olick.
DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Home improvement giant
Home Depot (NYSE:HD), a Dow component and leader in this rally has been on
an absolute tear since 2009, not just a spike, but likely because of the
epic crash in the housing market. Take a look, it`s up over 400 percent
since the Dow crossed 10,000. So, what fueled the gain?
Well, just think about what happened during the foreclosure crisis. First,
millions of home were either taken back by the banks or abandoned by owners
who could no longer pay. They fell into disrepair quickly. Entire
neighborhoods, in fact.
Then, very quickly, investors moved in, buying the homes and doing mostly
repairs and rehabs, not major renovations. But the kinds of fixes that
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) products fuels. That was the first surge. But then,
negative equity, which hit millions of owner occupants kept those
homeowners in place. They couldn`t move without taking loss. When you
don`t move, you renovate, you fix, you upgrade. Again, Home Depot`s sweet
Even now, as home owners stay in place longer, but millennials start to
buy, demand for remodeling products is still strong. As millions of
homeowners regain equity amid fast rising house prices, they`re using that
extra cash to upgrade appliances, fixtures and systems.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.
HERERA: Another top Dow performer since the index last crossed 10,000 is
Julia Boorstin takes us into the mouse house.
JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Since Dow 10,000,
Dow component Disney (NYSE:DIS) is up 280 percent and that`s despite
falling from all time highs in October 2015 on CEO Bob Iger`s comments
about the weakness at ESPN. Iger has transformed the company with two $4
billion acquisitions. Marvel in 2009 and “Star Wars” parent Lucas Films in
Disney`s animation studio turned around with record breaking “Frozen” and
revenue at Disney`s parks has jumped and the division has launched a
massive new park in Shanghai. And Disney (NYSE:DIS) is betting on digital,
last year buying a stake in streaming company Bam Tech.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.
GRIFFETH: And still ahead, big winners. Why companies that crush stone
and mix concrete are watching Washington very closely.
HERERA: The top performing Dow stock today was Boeing (NYSE:BA), as we
mentioned earlier. The world`s largest aerospace company reported the rise
in quarterly profits. That sent shares to an all time highs, closing up
more than 4 percent.
Phil LeBeau has more on Boeing`s quarter, including its dealings with the
president over the cost of Air Force One.
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: A big day for Boeing
(NYSE:BA) as shares moved higher after posting better than expected
earnings for the fourth quarter, and giving a fairly optimistic outlook for
Boeing (NYSE:BA) beats the street on the top and bottom line in the fourth
quarter with earnings 12 cents higher than estimates. That`s despite a
slight dip in commercial deliveries. But the profitability of the 787
Dreamliner is improving and the company says the transition to the new 737
sets it up for more commercial airplane deliveries this year.
The wild card for Boeing`s CEO Dennis Muilenburg is overseeing a company
dealing with the Trump administration. Remember, the president has blasted
Boeing (NYSE:BA) for the cost of new Air Force One 747s. That has led to a
couple of face to face meeting between the president and Boeing`s CEO who
says he can work with Donald Trump.
DENNIS MUILENBURG, BOEING CEO: President Trump is very much engaged with
business. We`ve had the privilege of having a very open dialogue with him
on business issues and all the actions that are being taken around things
like tax reform, regulatory reform, focus on trade policy. Those are all
things that are going to allow us to grow economically and ultimately,
allow us to grow and add manufacturing capacity in the U.S.
LEBEAU: A big concern for Boeing (NYSE:BA) as it deals with the Trump
administration is the country`s trade policy and how that might change.
What impact it could potentially have on Boeing`s dealings around the
Especially in China which is responsible for about 25 percent of Boeing`s
backlog of commercial airplanes, scheduled to be delivered in the years to
Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.
GRIFFETH: It was a different day for fellow Dow component United
Technologies (NYSE:UTX). That conglomerate reported a decline in profit
and revenue across the business units. It also detailed some of the
durability problems facing one of its turbo engines. All of that sent
shares of United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) lower by half a percent today,
HERERA: And, Bill, in Washington, President Trump took the first steps to
deliver on a signature campaign promise. Today, he signed an executive
order to begin planning for a wall on the U.S./Mexico border and said
construction would begin within months.
Eamon Javers reports tonight from our nation`s capital.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Build the wall —
EAMON JAVERS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It was one of the
signature promises of the Trump campaign — a big beautiful new wall along
the southern U.S. border with Mexico.
Today as president, Donald Trump set in motion a process he says will do
just that, and the White House says it will find a way to make Mexico pay
for it all.
TRUMP: We`re in the middle of a crisis on our southern border.
JAVERS: In a visit to the headquarters of the Department of Homeland
Security in Washington, Trump said agents there will be encouraged to be
more aggressive in cracking down on criminal immigrants.
TRUMP: This is a law enforcement agency. But for too long, your officers
and agents haven`t been allowed to properly do their jobs.
JAVERS: The president displayed a new emphasis on improving conditions on
the Mexican side of the border to reduce the incentive for people to move
TRUMP: We`ll be moving in partnership with our friends in Mexico to
improve safety and economic opportunity on both sides of the border. A
strong and healthy economy in Mexico is very good for the United States.
JAVERS: Mexican officials have been meeting with Trump aides ahead of next
week`s visit between president of the United States and the president of
Mexico. You can imagine that border wall and who is going to pay for it
will be a central focus of that session.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eamon Javers at the White House.
GRIFFETH: Construction of the president`s wall will likely cost billions
of dollars but it could benefit a handful of companies.
Morgan Brennan has that part of the story for us tonight.
MORGAN BRENNAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The border isn`t
the only thing getting built up. President Trump`s executive order to
build the wall catapulted industrial stocks to new highs, as a massive
project will mean big contracts for construction companies.
Kathryn Thompson whose Thompson Research Group analyses the sector says
suppliers of materials will be among the first to benefit.
KATHRYN THOMPSON, THOMPSON RESEARCH GROUP CEO: Most basic would be
aggregate, cement and concrete companies. And if you look at that,
perversely, one of the companies that would benefit is actually a Mexican-
based company Cemex, ticker symbol CX. Other major beneficiaries would be
Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC), Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE:MLM) would be
the other two big beneficiaries of this.
BRENNAN: Thompson also notes Granite Construction (NYSE:GVA) which has
projects along the border and steel makers that produce rebar are well-
positioned. And not just for a wall but for broader infrastructure
spending as well.
Other prospective winners, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Deere, which could
supply the equipment necessary for construction. But about a third of the
2,000 mile border has already been cordoned off, thanks in part to the
Secure Fence Act of 2006. And many miles just aren`t conducive to a
structure, thanks to local terrain.
That could mean more demand for surveillance technologies, making defense
contractors winners as well. Israeli firm Elbit Systems (NASDAQ:ESLT) is
already developing a virtual wall in Arizona, and Boeing (NYSE:BA) has
developed and operated border surveillance in the past.
But much remains to be seen, including the price. Trump has said could it
take $8 billion. But some experts put the cost as high as $25 billion, and
none of that includes maintenance.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Morgan Brennan.
HERERA: AT&T (NYSE:T) hits its earnings target and that`s where we begin
tonight`s “Market Focus”.
While the telecom giant`s earnings were in line with Wall Street estimates,
the company did report a slight drop in revenue. AT&T (NYSE:T) also added
nearly 3 million net wireless accounts in the latest quarter, and its
streaming service DirecTV now showed some growth. AT&T (NYSE:T) shares
initially fell in after hours trading but finished the regular session up 3
cents to $41.39.
EBay posted earnings and revenue for the quarter that matched analyst
expectations. The ecommerce giant said an increase in active fires, a one-
time tax benefit and a strong holiday shopping season all helped results.
But for the current quarter, the company gave sales guidance that missed
forecast. Shares initially rose after hours but ended the regular session
up just fractionally to $30.23.
And factory equipment maker Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) said that
quarterly profit and sales grew as lower tax rates and stabilizing demand
from customers in the energy industry helped its results. Rockwell also
raised its guidance for the full year. The shares popped a full 7 percent
GRIFFETH: Meanwhile, copper miner Freeport McMoRan said that new
regulations affecting its Indonesian mine may cause the company to cut jobs
and reduce output. That`s a move that the company says could significantly
impact future results. Freeport also posted disappointing profits for the
latest quarter, while its revenue came in above forecast. Shares were down
3 percent today to $16.50 per share.
Restaurant operator Brinker said that higher menu prices and an increase in
employee health expenses caused profits and sales to fall below estimates.
The parent of Chili`s also said the results caused it to lower earnings and
revenue guidance for all of 2017. Brinker shares were town 6 percent on an
otherwise up day to $44.24.
And in an effort to focus on its packaged foods business, Bob Evans Farms
(NASDAQ:BOBE) says it`s going to sell its restaurant division to a private
equity firm for half a billion dollars. Bob Evans shares soared by nearly
21 percent today, closing at $57.94.
HERERA: And coming up, how are some of the country`s best fund managers
investing in this record market? We`ll hear from them, next.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s a historical moment. It gives people hope that
things continue to get better and improve and grow. And it`s exciting.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I remember when it was a big deal when the Dow hit
1,000. So, you know, it`s steadily progress. I don`t think it`s anything
to, you know, shoot to the moon about. It just happens. It`s probably
going to go down, too.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The aphorism is, buy low, sell high. It`s high. If
you`re in, you should stick around. But I don`t think this is a good time
to put new money in.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HERERA: On the day that the Dow closed above 20,000, Tyler Mathisen
interviewed some of the country`s top ranking money managers at
Morningstar`s Fund Manager of the Year Awards. Timing is everything.
Ty asked them how they`re investing now.
TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Sue, what a day it was to
be here at the Morningstar`s Annual Mutual Fund Manager of the Year Award,
an auspicious day of milestones. The winner in the domestic stock fund
category, David Wallack is from T. Rowe Price mid cap value.
And I began by asking him if he does anything different or sees the market
differently on a milestone day like this.
DAVID WALLACK, T. ROWE PRICE MID CAP VALUE FUND MGR: It doesn`t make any
difference at all. I keep focused on the same things.
MATHISEN: Wallack is known for making contrarian plays and I asked him
where he is finding those plays this year.
WALLACK: At the moment, it`s pretty idiosyncratic. You find values in a
number of different areas. There aren`t a whole lot of them. The market
is pretty well picked over. But we`re finding things to buy in things like
consumer staples and real estate investment trust. Still a couple names in
energy and a few other areas.
MATHISEN: Next up was David Herro of Oakmark International, I asked him,
too, what he thinks about milestone days like this.
DAVID HERRO, OAKMARK INTERNATIONAL FUND MGR: What`s really important to us
is the value level of the market, not the price movement of the market.
The price movement doesn`t tell you much. It`s not very instructive.
What`s instructive is the valuation which the individual components of that
market are selling at.
MATHISEN: Herro`s fund is heavily right now in Europe and was last year.
And so, I asked him how he reacted when Brexit hit?
HERRO: The reaction was markets around the world went nuts. It didn`t
matter if it was a Japanese exporter which was inversely impacted by the
yen, which strengthened, or the European financials outside of the United
Kingdom were strongly impacted. I mean, I think that next day could have
been our funds, one of the single biggest drops in history.
But again, this was an example in our view —
MATHISEN: Well, it`s recovered.
HERRO: Yes — where price moved — intrinsic value moved nowhere near what
price provided an opportunity.
MATHISEN: All in all, Sue, a very interesting day. I would say there was
general optimism about the tone of the market. But remember, these are
stock pickers first and not really market forecasters. They look for where
the values are and build their portfolios from the bottom up.
From Chicago, I`ll be back and see you tomorrow.
HERERA: And we look forward to that, Ty.
The road to Dow 20,000 was full of monumental events. Here`s a look back
at the history of the world`s famous index.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The New York Stock Exchange was in a turmoil. The
inevitable crash had finally come.
FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT, FORMER PRESIDENT: December 7th, 1941, a date which
will live in infamy.
RICHARD NIXON, FORMER PRESIDENT: I shall resign the presidency effective
at noon tomorrow.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Dow up more than 500 points, October 19, 1987.
Wall Street`s Black Monday.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The 158-year-old firm born before the industrial
revolution. Lehman Brothers will likely file for bankruptcy tonight.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Five years after the bottom, the market erases its
losses from the financial crisis. There it is.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We`re above 17,000.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We do expect the Dow to crack 20k for the first time in
its 120-year history. And it is done.
GRIFFETH: Yes, the history of the stock market is the history of our
Before we go, here`s another look at what has been an historic day on Wall
Street. Today, the blue chip average rallied by 155 points, closing at
20,068.51. And NASDAQ added 55, that`s a record closing high. The same
thing for the S&P, it gained 18 points to a brand new high, Sue.
HERERA: And, Bill, and as you know, we were just speaking about Dow
history. And you and I have seen — oh, great. Look at that hair. You
and I have seen an awful lot of history. That`s when the Dow first crossed
the 10,000 mark in 1999.
GRIFFETH: It is all about the hair.
HERERA: It is.
On that note, that`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for
GRIFFETH: I`m Bill Griffeth here at the New York Stock Exchange. Have a
great evening, everybody. We`ll see you tomorrow.
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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