Wall Street expects Hillary Clinton to win even though it doesn’t want her.
The CNBC Fed Survey finds that 80 percent of respondents see Clintonwinning the presidency this November. No one else is even close. Of the 48 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, just 13 percent believe Donald Trump will win. In third place? “Don’t know or unsure,” with 7 percent.
But who they think will win differs significantly from who they want to win.
For the second survey in a row, Kasich is the pick of Wall Street. About 50 percent say the Ohio governor’s policies are best for the economy and for the stock market. Kasich’s support has grown from March even though he has made little headway in closing the delegate gap with front-runner Trump.
But Trump’s support on Wall Street took a nosedive. In March, 13 percent of survey respondents thought he had the best economic policies. Now, it’s just 4 percent.
“Trump said he’d be inclined to replace Janet Yellen as Fed chair,” said Rob Morgan, chief investment officer of Sethi Financial Group. “He also said he’d support the notion of Congress auditing the Fed’s decision-making. Dangerous.”
On who has the best economic policies, “don’t know/unsure” is in second place with 17 percent, followed by Clinton with 15 percent and Cruz with 13 percent.
Wall Street clearly appears to be concerned about the Republican field. Asked whether it would be best for the economy if a Republican or Democrat wins the presidency, just 30 percent chose the GOP, down 10 points from March. But Democrats fared worse, with just 9 percent saying it would best if a Democrat wins.
Thirty-seven percent say they just don’t know or they’re unsure whether it’s best for the economy if a Democrat or Republican wins, up 21 points from March.
“The current tenor of the presidential campaign and many of the policies being floated by the candidates can in no way be considered positive for the equity markets,” John Roberts, director of research of Hilliard Lyons, wrote in response to the survey.
The campaign itself is seen as hurting the economy, with 61 percent saying it’s negative for the economic outlook, up 5 points from March. “Markets seem to be turning a blind eye to the real rise in political and policy risks emerging both at home and abroad,” wrote economist Diane Swonk, founder of advisory firm DS Economics.
The CNBC Fed Survey was conducted Thursday and Friday.