The expected expansion of shared vehicles will slow the long term growth of auto sales worldwide, according to a new study.
McKinsey projects annual global sales will pull back to 2 percent annual growth by 2030 as more people around the world turn to sharing a vehicle for their transportation needs. Over the last five years, global vehicle sales have grown 3.6 percent annually.
“As more people around the world look to use vehicles, they will be doing so through car sharing and mobility on demand services,” said Hans-Werner Kaas, senior partner and head of the McKinsey Automotive and Assembly practice.
The study points to trends that explain why nearly every major automaker in the world is either launching or considering a car-share pilot program. Just last week, General Motors announced a car-share pilot program for its employees in Shanghai.
On Monday, Lyft said GM invested $500 million in the ride-sharing company as part of a round of a $1 billion round of fund-raising, and Silvercar, a rental car start-up, turned to Audi to fund its latest expansion.
McKinsey believes the growth of mega-cities like London, New York and Mumbai and the congestion that will come with that growth will push more consumers to consider sharing a vehicle.
The study expects a growing percentage of those vehicles to be autonomous-drive models. In fact, McKinsey estimates 15 percent of the new cars in 2030 could be fully autonomous, self-driven models.
“This technology will dramatically change how people transport themselves, the question is how quickly it develops,” said Kaas. McKinsey does not predict which automakers and suppliers will be the winners and losers as they race toward developing new mobility solutions. However, the consulting firm believes electrified vehicles will play an increasingly important role.
It estimates 10-15 percent of the new vehicles by 2030 could be electrified.