The world has changed a lot since then, and almost 10 years later, we may be close to seeing another rate hike by the Fed, if not Thursday, then at some point in the next few weeks or months.
But there are so many financial professionals now who have no experience with this. To be specific, that number is 13.9 percent, according to data from eVestment.
Asset management firms voluntarily provide information on their key professionals to eVestment, allowing their data to include 35,000 active professionals from 4,500 firms—who graduated from 900 universities and colleges globally.
“There are more junior varsity Fed watchers commenting on this potential policy change than ever before,” Jeremy Hill, managing partner for Old Blackheath Companies, wrote in a recent research note.
“The general lack of experience of many investment professionals also applies to the lack of experiencing a bear market in bonds—and inexperience of a bear market in stocks,” said Douglas Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management. “We have been in a bull market for bonds for over three decades and a bull market in stocks since 2009.” Kass, who graduated from Wharton in 1972, said the “lack of experience will likely be manifested in a lot more volatility across numerous assets classes,” including stocks, bonds and more.
“In areas that will experience a lot of volatility, like the two-year U.S. Treasury note,” said Hill in an interview with CNBC, “it will be interesting to see the risk management function of some traders who haven’t lived through a series of rate hikes.” Hill continued, “I find it far-fetched that a 32-year-old is going to be allowed to take a big amount of risk.”
‘There are always casualties’
Not everybody thinks experience will matter that much. “If you’re older, it would be tempting to think that your experiences will help you as rates rise, but I’m not so sure,” said Jason Trennert, managing partner at Strategas Research Partners and author of the new book “My Side of the Street.” “No one’s ever witnessed a central bank starting a ‘normalization’ process after quintupling its balance sheet.”
“It’s not so much the last time since they raised rates. To me the story is how few people are around since the last time we had real inflation!” proclaimed Stephen Guilfoyle, managing director of the New York Stock Exchange floor operations for Deep Value Inc.
“Unfortunately,” said Trennert, who started in the business in 1990, “it’s doubtful that either youth or experience will be much help in the aftermath of unprecedented monetary stimulus.”
“The increased volatility is occurring, of course, in a setting of much lower liquidity,” said Kass, “creating the possibility of a toxic cocktail of higher volatility and lesser liquidity.”
Kass had a dire conclusion: “When volatility is on the ascent, in part because of lack of experience in changing market direction like rising interest rates, there are always casualties.”