TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Ready or not. Fed Chair Janet Yellen says a rate hike is likely this year, even as economic growth remains cool.
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Profit picture — and it`s not pretty. Just how weak will corporate earnings be and what does it mean for investors?
MATHISEN: And market monitor. He`s got a list of stocks he says could deliver double-digit returns for you over the next year.
All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday, March 27th.
HERERA: Good evening, everyone.
Gradual and cautious, that`s how Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen late today described the path ahead for interest rates, which has become one of the biggest guessing games on Wall Street.
In a speech prepared for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Yellen said it all hinges on the economy and the data.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JANET YELLEN, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR: I`m cautiously optimistic in the context of moderate gross and aggregate output and spending, labor market conditions are likely to improve further in coming months. In particular, and despite the somewhat disappointing tone of recent retail sales data, I think consumer spending is likely to expand at a good clip this year.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HERERA: And one number Yellen is watching closely: gross domestic product. Today, the Commerce Department on fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of goods and services produced by an economy expanded by
Hampton Pearson has more.
HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Harsh winter weather, the now settled slowdown in major West Coast ports and the strong dollar, were not only drags on the economy at the end of the year but continue to take their toll in the first quarter. Total corporate profits dropped more than 8 percent last year, the biggest decline since 2008. That decline accelerated in the fourth quarter, as earnings from multinationals were impacted by the strong dollar.
After-tax corporate profits fell $57 billion in the fourth quarter versus a $52 billion increase in the previous quarter. Corporate profits from outside the U.S. had a decrease of $36 billion versus a $16.5 billion increase in the third quarter.
And the dollar gained nearly 8 percent against the currencies of the main U.S. trading partners in the last six months of 2014.
RICK RIEDER, BLACKROCK CIO: Some pullback would be expected. We`re not terribly concerned about it going forward, especially given the fact it`s a transitory nature to that dollar.
PEARSON: In contrast, the benefits of lower energy prices may finally be showing up in consumer spending. The 4.4 percent increase at the end of last year was the fastest pace in nine years. But record cold weather kept millions of consumers at home in the first quarter of this year and economists say many households have opted to hold on to the bulk of their savings from lower gasoline prices.
ANETA MARKOWSKA, SOCIETE GENERALE U.S. ECONOMIST: It takes a few months of these lower gasoline prices sticking for people to become convinced that, OK, this is a permanent drop. This is not just some volatility, like we saw in 2008 when gas prices went down and pretty quickly ran back up.
PEARSON: Today`s slower economic growth and profit data is more ammunition for economists and Fed watchers who believe monetary policy makers will delay raising interest rates until later this year.
JOHN MANLEY, WELLS FARGO FUNDS: The Fed is still the single most important factor for the stock market and I don`t think that Fed is going to tighten anytime soon.
PEARSON: That next payroll update comes one week from today, when the Labor Department delivers the March jobs report.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.
MATHISEN: Steve Liesman is with us now to talk more about the Fed chair`s speech this evening and economic growth.
As I heard the chair, I heard her rather bullish about the U.S.
economy, but concerned that she not miss the moment to start raising interest rates, not to be too late to do so.
STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I would think. And those are all sort of the same things, Tyler. She`s bullish on the economy given what`s happening right now, the softness of the economy.
She said it`s going to come back and she expects it to come back. She expects the labor market to remain strong.
What I thought she did was say, you know, don`t be too complacent on when we start, but when we start, you can be somewhat complacent. We will be very gradual.
Very important that she mentioned Sweden and Japan, two countries that have tried to leave zero interest rates, put their tail between their monetary policy legs and went scurrying back to zero.
HERERA: You know, Steve, she also mentioned inflation and as I read it, she mentioned the fact that they like some more inflation in the economy, but that inflation is not going to be the only measure by which they judge when to raise rates.
LIESMAN: And not only that, Sue, but said what I think is for the first time. I have to go back and look at all the things she said, that they`re willing to raise rates even if core inflation is not rising.
LIESMAN: And even before the Fed reach it is 2 percent target.
I think the way to think about this is what she`s saying is she will not make the perfect inflation be the enemy of the good. At the end of the day, what they`re going to do is raise rates in part because I hear her saying the risk of being too late while there`s still less than being too early have risen nonetheless and they want to be very vigilant that they don`t end up hiking too early.
MATHISEN: And she`s not going to make the perfect labor market the enemy of the good labor market by the same token.
It really jived with what Vice Chair Fischer said, I guess to you and others earlier this week. When we start to rise, don`t expect it to be a lockstep quarter point every meeting.
LIESMAN: Right. They want to keep the market guessing a little bit.
They don`t want to be a predetermined path.
The era of predetermined path of absolute guidance from the Fed, that`s done. That was part of the financial crisis. That was part of this idea of we want to tell you what`s going to happen next. We`re over that.
We`re into a very new and somewhat historic era.
MATHISEN: Steve, thanks so much.
MATHISEN: I appreciate it, Steve Liesman.
HERERA: Well, stocks snap a four day losing streak but despite today`s gains, stocks posted their biggest weekly losses since January.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34 points to 17,712, the NASDAQ tacked on 27, and S&P 500 gained 5. For the week, all three indexes were down more than 2 percent with the NASDAQ getting hit the hardest.
MATHISEN: As Hampton reported earlier today, as GDP report showed a big drop in corporate profits in the fourth quarter of last year, at least by one measure. Now, as we approach the end of the first quarter, things aren`t looking a lot better.
Bob Pisani has more now from the New York Stock Exchange on the profit outlook.
BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: As we enter earnings season for the first quarter in the next few weeks, it`s important to note that a higher percentage of companies have been saying their earnings will be below expectations, as some are blaming currency issues, some are just saying sales are sluggish. Regardless, earnings estimates have been coming down for weeks.
Now, everybody knows that earnings for energy companies are going to be a debacle due to the decline in oil. Earnings are expected to be down about 63 percent in that sector, but we`re also expecting earnings declines in other sectors, including materials, utilities, telecom and consumer staples. That`s five of the S&P 500 10 sectors that are expected to show negative earnings growth.
Overall, analysts currently expect the S&P 500 to have earnings down roughly 3 percent over the same period last year. This would be the first quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2009.
Now, that`s the bad news. Here`s the good news. All the analysts are upset with this earnings recession, and so, they become very aggressive cutting their earnings estimate.
And because of that, my bet is that they`re going to overshoot the mark. My bet is that we are probably bottoming in terms of earnings cut and that the companies will likely report results that are a bit better than expected. Still, even in the best case scenario, earnings will be close to flat for the first quarter and possibly the second quarter.
That`s a serious headwind when you have the stock market near historic highs.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.
HERERA: So, what could a weak earnings season mean for the market and for investors?
John Manley is chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Funds Management.
Good to see you again, John. Welcome back.
JOHN MANLEY, WELLS FARGO FUNDS MANAGEMENT: Thank you very much for having me. Great to be back.
HERERA: I guess the question is, do you really expect it to be a weak earnings season?
MANLEY: Me and everybody else. It`s pretty obvious they`re going to be down, although they have a tendency to rise in the first couple of weeks of the quarter. We finish up the preannouncement period. That`s generally the worst part of it.
I tend to think they`ll be OK. They`ll be flat to down. I think this is probably close. I think Bob had a very good point. This is probably the worst comparisons we`re going to see.
MATHISEN: Is it — if you took energy out, would the earnings picture be a lot better?
MANLEY: Oh, yes. I mean, there`s no question about it. I`m not sure, it wouldn`t be great. But it would be better than it is. Obviously, energy is a big — it`s a reasonably decent component, a big drop.
There`s no question, earnings are kind of sluggish. The dollar has been pretty strong. It looks like the second half of last year. It was a bit of an aberration cost by first half of last year. It wasn`t as strong as we thought.
But number one, I think e earnings aren`t quite as important on the six to 12 month basis with the Fed. And number two, I think the earnings are still going to rise. We have to get through this rough patch. But the things that made them go up are still in place as far as I`m concerned.
HERERA: So, for the investor that has a longer term time horizon, if indeed we do see some weakness in this market, I assume you would encourage them to add to their positions. How do you think the market overall is going to take the earnings season?
MANLEY: You know, I don`t know. It may be something of a non-event.
If we get any sense at all that things are better in Europe, that our trading partners are doing a bit better, that`s what we need. It actually could start to look ahead.
The market is very pickle as to where it focuses on earnings.
Sometimes, we`re looking right at now. Sometimes, we`re looking at six months. Sometimes, we`re looking at 12 months.
Usually, when we get a sense of this is as bad as it`s going to be, we tend to look out further and I think that will be a positive.
MATHISEN: Call me a Pollyanna, John, but in a funny way, I wonder whether a bad earnings report is a good thing because then the cops become easier to hit.
MANLEY: Well, or bad earnings expectation is a nice thing, because they`re easier to bet. It`s the same thing, set it a slightly different way, and I think also, the Fed has got to be looking at this too. I mean, there`s got to be some connection, somewhere between profits and economic growth. And, you know, as you said earlier in the program, I`m sure Janet Yellen doesn`t want to raise rates too soon or too late. But which, if you`re going to err on the side of the angels, which side of the angels on?
HERERA: Exactly. And on that note, we will leave it there. John, have a great weekend, and thanks for joining us.
MANLEY: Thank you.
HERERA: John Manley with Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Funds Management.
MATHISEN: Oil prices fell for the first time in six sessions despite a second day of Saudi-led air strikes in Yemen. West Texas Intermediate off about 5 percent, Brent tumbled as well, as you see there.
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera now with more on the fighting in Yemen, where the battle lines are being drawn and on why investors are on edge.
MICHELLE CARUSO-CABRERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The Saudi Arabia-led coalition forces launched fresh airstrikes against military targets in Yemen`s capital of Sana`a. The capital is controlled by Houthi rebels, as a tribal group who are Shia Muslims. The rebels responded to those air raids with intensified anti-aircraft artillery which could be heard across the city.
Thousands of protesters gathered in the Yemeni capital to show their support for the Houthi rebel group.
Al-Massira Television, which is affiliated with the rebels, broadcasts footage of the huge demonstration, which took place after those attacks.
The country`s president, Hadi, who headed the Saudi-backed Sunni Muslim government, fled the country Wednesday as the Houthis advance on his stronghold in the southern port of Aden. He reappeared yesterday, though, arriving by plane in Saudi Arabia`s capital of Riyadh, that according to Saudi state TV.
The military conflict raises concerns about oil supplies because Saudi Arabia is one of the world`s biggest greatest producers of oil.
Governor Bill Richardson is the former energy secretary.
BILL RICHARDSON, FMR. ENERGY SECRETARY: What I worry about in this Yemen conflict is two things. A dramatic effect on oil prices, if something goes bad for the Saudis. And what happens if the Saudis start losing?
CARUSO-CABRERA: The governor`s second concern, a potential escalation to a wider regional conflict.
Foreign policy experts call this a proxy war. The government of Yemen is Sunni and supported by Saudi Arabia. The rebels are Shia and supported by Iran. This is essentially now a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Sunni and Shia factions are also clashing in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
The Iranian foreign minister condemned the Saudi attacks on the sidelines of Iran`s nuclear negotiations.
MOHAMMAD JAVAD ZARIF, IRAN MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS: We believe that they will (INAUDIBLE) loss of human life. They have to stop and everybody has to encourage dialogue and national reconsideration in Yemen, rather than making it more difficult for the Yemenis to come together.
CARUSO-CABRERA: And those nuclear negotiations highlight how even more complicated the situation in the Middle East has become. The U.S. is negotiating with Iran on its nuclear program. It`s on the same side as Iran in the battle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and on the opposite side of Iran when it comes to Yemen in Saudi Arabia.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera.
HERERA: As for where oil prices go from here, the chairman and CEO of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said investors should brace for a volatile year.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN WATSON, CHEVRON CHAIRMAN & CEO: I think we`re going to see a very choppy year in 2015. And so, I believe prices will respond to physical things that are happening in the marketplace and political events all around the world. Over time, I think market forces are going to determine where prices go. Right now, we got surplus oil. I expect this to be a choppy year around the range that we`re in today.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HERERA: To deal with the choppiness in prices, Watson says Chevron
(NYSE:CVX) is adjusting as necessary and is committed to growing the company`s dividends.
MATHISEN: Still ahead, Sue, our market monitor has a triple play for us. One stock he says you should hold for a year, another for three and a third for five. The suspense is killing me.
HERERA: A busy 24 hours in the nation`s capital. First, the Republican-controlled Senate approved its budget along party lines in the very early hours of the morning. Second, Senator Harry Reid announced his plans to retire next year. And third, banks are reportedly considering withholding campaign donations to Senate Democrats because of Senator Warren`s attacks on Wall Street.
John Harwood has been very busy today and he joins us now with more from Washington.
Why do we start with the budget at this point? It was along party lines, John. So, what`s the next step here?
JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Well, the House and Senate, Sue, have to try to reconcile their competing versions of the budget. If they can do that, that will set the stage for them to make one last decisive attempt in both chambers to repeal Obamacare. It will fail because President Obama will veto it, but they can get a vote in the Senate that can pass with the majority if they can put their two budgets together.
Otherwise, the budget isn`t that significant. It`s a non-binding document and President Obama has vowed to veto spending bills that carry out that budget which suggests it`s in for a rough ride down the road.
MATHISEN: So, this is basically a dead letter either way.
HARWOOD: I think so, but it will be significant if they get a unified budget, House and Senate. They`ll have these expedited parliamentary procedures to actually pass and put on his desk a bill repealing Obamacare which he will then veto and they lacked the vote on —
MATHISEN: Quick thought on Harry Reid. He`s stepping down. He was going to face a tough fight he did the last time he ran. Does it really change anything?
HARWOOD: Yes. It puts a seat in play for the Republicans. Chuck Schumer is going to succeed him as leader. Harry Reid endorsed him today.
Dick Durbin, the chief competitor, got out of the race.
So, we know a New York senator, friendly with Wall Street, will be the next Democratic leader. The question is going to be, do Republicans and Democrats or Democrats hold the Senate in 2017? Harry Reid`s retirement makes it slightly easier for Republicans to hang on.
HERERA: And, lastly, banks reportedly withholding those campaign contributions because of Senator Warren`s attacks on Wall Street, they say.
How big a dent would that be if they carry that out?
HARWOOD: I don`t think that`s going anywhere, Sue. Certainly with Hillary Clinton as the prospective nominee, she`s friendly to Wall Street.
I just mentioned Chuck Schumer, he is. I don`t think you`re going to have widespread protesting.
Elizabeth Warren was just out this afternoon raising money off that threat, calling on her supporters saying don`t let us be bullied by the big banks. I don`t think this is going to go too far.
HERERA: It is never a dull moment in your beat, John.
HARWOOD: That`s right.
HERERA: Thank you so much. John Harwood in Washington.
MATHISEN: Well, a $5 billion deal tops tonight`s “Market Focus”.
Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) is gong to spinoff and merge most of its chlorine business with Olin (NYSE:OLN) Corporation. The deal makes Olin
(NYSE:OLN) the largest producer of chlor alkali, which is used in the textile and automotive businesses.
Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) CEO said the deal was a no brainer.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDREW LIVERIS, DOW CHEMICAL CHAIRMAN & CEO: This deal structure with Olin (NYSE:OLN) is a win win win. Dow shareholders win. Olin
(NYSE:OLN) shareholders win. The combined company becomes number one in their business, and Dow shareholders end up earning 55 percent of it, so they get to participate in the new growth company.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATHISEN: Shares of both companies up strongly today. Dow Chemical
(NYSE:DOW) gaining about 3 percent to $47.76. Olin (NYSE:OLN) higher by 14 percent to $31 even.
BlackBerry surprised the street with a fourth quarter profit, but revenues missed targets. The one time leader in the smartphone market say the plan to reinvent itself with mobile security software and phones for corporate government users is still on track. Shares of BlackBerry up nearly 2 percent to $9.46.
HERERA: Finish Line posted a decline in its holiday sales quarter and warned that profits may miss expectations for the full year, but the athletic apparel and shoe retailer still managed to beat Wall Street estimates for the fourth quarter. The company also said it will buy back 5 million shares. Shares fell a little more than a percent to $23.62.
Carnival (NYSE:CCL) earnings cruise past estimates, thanks to higher passenger spending and lower fuel prices. The world`s largest cruise operator also ordered nine new ships for its fleet. The shares rose 6 percent to $47.12.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is reportedly in talks to buy the chip maker Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR). “The Wall Street Journal” says a deal for Altera
(NASDAQ:ALTR) would be Intel`s largest takeover ever. Shares of Altera
(NASDAQ:ALTR) shot up 28 percent to $44.39. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) climbed about 6 percent to $32 even.
MATHISEN: Our market monitor tonight says he has a list of stocks that could be long term buys, could rise double digits.
Chris Bertelsen is the chief investment officer at Global Finance Private Capital.
Chris, welcome. Good to have you with us.
Let`s jump into the stocks right into your stocks. When I look at my notes, I noticed I saw JD. I immediately thought of a product. I thought Jack Daniels. But this is not Jack Daniels we`re talking about.
CHRIS BERTELSEN, GLOBAL FINANCE PRIVATE CAPITAL: No, JD is a Chinese company. It`s immune from the tantrums around the dollar and the weather of the Northeast.
Look, China is changing from an export economy to a consumer economy.
And the best way to play that is through the Internet, and JD is like buying Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) six years ago. It has already 1,800 delivery centers and over 80 warehouses. I think they`re giving Alibaba, their a bigger cousin, a run. And I think it`s a long term play on China.
HERERA: You like an ETF PureFunds Cyber Security. The symbol is HACK, and it seems like almost every day, we`re hearing big and small corporations having to deal with cybersecurity issues.
BERTELSEN: Absolutely, Sue. There`s no question that it pervades everything, even our own computers and cell phones and Teslas and everything.
And I think the way to play that whole area is not to try to go out and buy a FireEye or Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), but find something to take care of all the life cycle of the attack world. And to be able to do that, if you can own a real package of securities, you can get one of the hottest areas in technology without having to take that individual bet.
MATHISEN: You like guacamole, don`t you, Chris?
Your next choice is a grower of avocados. Do you know any good kale stocks, by the way?
BERTELSEN: Kale is healthy too, but a couple of growers is great. I mean, if you look at their earnings progression, their sales progression, they`re sort of a semi-monopoly. They don`t have to worry about the export business, mainly to the U.S. with avocados and tomatoes and other things.
And the best part of it is that it`s now a health food conscious area and everybody says the good fat is in avocado.
But if you look inside the company and see the growth in both earnings and sales, you realize it`s a little bit immune to maybe this blip we`ll get in with March quarter earnings.
HERERA: Yes, what about earnings and the market overall, Chris? I know you invested with different time horizons and some of your holdings.
But overall, are you still bullish on the market?
BERTELSEN: Yes, I do. I think this year will be a front end loaded year, just as your previous strategy said. I think we`ll see some skinned knees when finally the Fed says, OK, here it comes. But then they get over it. It will be like May and June of 2013, and then be beyond it.
So, I`m, you know, basically feeling we`re more in a secular bull market. I just think we need to have a real connection to shake out weak hands.
MATHISEN: Go have yourself a good avocado, Chris. Thanks a lot.
Have a good weekend.
BERTELSEN: Thank you.
MATHISEN: Chris Bertelsen with Global Financial Private Capital.
HERERA: Some crazy developments tonight in the high profile sexual discrimination suit we told you about earlier this week. A jury had found venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins did not discriminate against former partner Ellen Pao. But then, on the account dealing with retaliation, it was found the jury only had 8 votes in favor of Kleiner Perkins. The problem? You need to have 9 jurors agree. The judge sent the jury back to deliberate. A final verdict could come back later this evening.
Coming up as we continue, Americans are losing their thirst for diet soda, and that`s presenting some big challenges for some very big brands.
HERERA: And here`s a look at what to watch for next week.
How much did people earn and spend in February? We`ll find out on Monday.
Tuesday is the deadline in the U.S./Iran nuclear talks. It also marks the end of the first quarter.
And Friday, we get the March jobs report. The stock market is closed for Good Friday but the Labor Department will release the report that morning.
MATHISEN: And finally tonight, Americans` love of soda is fizzling.
According to a new report, soda volumes are down now for the tenth consecutive year. And as Sara Eisen tells us, diet soda is now leading the decline.
SARA EISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: If you find yourself drinking less soda than you used to, you`re probably not alone.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think our generation used to drink a lot more soda, but now, we don`t.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don`t sugar isn`t as bad for you as like artificial stuff.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I used to order soda whenever I got to eat, and now, I never do.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I can`t pronounce the ingredients, so I`m not drinking it.
EISEN: Soda sales dropped for the tenth year in a row and diet soda sales dropped more than sales of full calorie sodas for the fourth straight year. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is still far and away, the overall soda sales leader, but Pepsi back at number two, moving past Diet Coke for the first time since 2009.
JOHN FAUCHER, JPMORGAN & CEO: Consumers are moving from categories perceived as better for you to stuff that`s actually good for you.
EISEN: Consumers weren`t buying more Pepsi, sales were down almost 2 percent. But it moved up in the rankings because the decline was not as steep as the drop in Diet Coke sales, down more than 6.5 percent. Sales hit other diet sodas, too. Diet Pepsi was down more than 5 percent. Diet Mountain Dew fell 3 percent. Coke Zero down 2 percent.
Today, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) released a statement saying Diet Coke performance has been improving slightly, but we still have more work to do.
Some of that work includes using fewer artificial sweeteners.
FAUCHER: They have to come up with a natural sweetener. I think if they do that in both Coke and Pepsi, as well as Dr. Pepper, they`re working on that. But trying to find something that`s natural and tastes good, that`s been the real problem so far.
EISEN: Sales of full calorie Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) were up for the year. It just barely, one tenth of 1 percent. Coke`s first year-over-year increase since 2000.
Energy drinks are also giving sodas more competition these days.
That`s why the big boys, Coke, Pepsi and others have become big players in the energy drink market.
(on camera): Overall, beverage sales were up last year, but that was driven by the rise of bottled water, up 7 percent in 2014. In fact, in terms of volume or sheer amount of units sold, bottled water is set to outpace soda sometime in the next two years.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Sara Eisen at the NASDAQ in New York.
HERERA: We`re both seltzer people.
MATHISEN: Yes, I love a cold soda, but I drink a lot less of it today than I did in the past. More water.
HERERA: More water. That`s it.
We hope you have a lovely weekend. We`ll see you again on Monday.
That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue Herera.
MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a great weekend, everyone.
We will see you back here on Monday.
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