Will Oracle fall prey to the rising dollar?
The software giant is set to report after Tuesday’s bell, and analysts say the surging U.S. dollar could have a strong negative impact on the stock.
“We adjusted our estimates in mid-January based on new assumptions around FX, [software as a service, and platform as a service] growth, and margins; however, we’re expecting continued FX headwinds to be an incremental drag on results at the magnitude of 1.5 percent and $0.02 cents,” wrote BMO Capital Markets analyst Joel Fishbein in a recent note. (Still, the analyst maintains an “outperform” rating on the stock.)
Pat Walravens, who covers Oracle for JMP Securities, told CNBC he expects that currency woes will present a 5 percent headwind to revenue growth in the quarter ended in February.
The basic idea is that many of Oracle’s sales come from outside the U.S., and with other currencies weakening against the greenback, each dollar that comes home will be worth less.
In their previous earnings call, the company itself called attention to the currency problem when co-CEO Safra Catz said that the rising U.S. dollar not only reduced revenue by 4 percent in the current quarter, but also weighed on Oracle’s guidance.
“Given the unusually high volatility in exchange rates, we expect currency will affect revenue by more than 4 percent and EPS by $0.04 if rates stay as they did—as they are just about now, but as we just don’t know how much,” Catz said.
Since then, the dollar has only gotten stronger. The US dollar index has risen more than 10 percent since the start of the year.
Still, some traders argue that with a stock decline of more than 3 percent in 2015, the company needn’t hit earnings out of the park.
“Numbers have come down. We’ve seen that happen,” said David Seaburg, head of equity sales trading with Cowen. Since it trades at a cheap valuation, “Oracle could be very stable even if they print a number that’s not necessarily so great on an earnings basis.”
CORRECTION: This version corrected that Walravens’ headwindestimate was 5 percent and that it was for the quarter that ended in February.
—CNBC’s Lawrence Lewitinn contributed to this story.