Transcript: Friday, April 25, 2014

NBR ThumANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you in part by —


closes out the week with a triple digit loss as tensions over Ukraine rise,
and earnings disappoint. What should investors expect in the days and
weeks ahead?

(NASDAQ:AMZN). Shares drop hard as investors take a closer look at its
earnings outcome. What Wall Street is telling CEO Jeff Bezos — but is he

GHARIB: And stock in reverse. Ford`s profits drop, so does its
stock. What`s behind this surprise miss and can it get the engine revving

We have all that more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Friday,
April 25th.

MATHISEN: Good evening, everyone, and welcome.

This was not the way anyone really wanted to end the week after a
generally positive earnings season so far, traders pull back hard today.
After big names like Ford Motors, Visa (NYSE:V) and Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN).com released earnings or outlooks that sent investors heading
to the exits.

Also adding to the selloff mood, the simmering strike between Russia
and the Ukraine as the U.S. warned of even tougher sanctions against
Russia. Meanwhile, S&P downgraded Russia`s grading one notch above junk

Stocks were able to bunch off the lows of the session, but the final
numbers were not pretty and weren`t enough to wipe out all of this week`s
prior gains. The Dow tumbled 140 points, the NASDAQ was down 72, nearly 2
percent and the S&P 500 lost 15.

Dominic Chu now with a closer look at how all the saber-rattling out
of Russia is impacting markets here and around the globe, and what else is
giving traders the jitters right now.


around the world again came to the realization that geopolitical risks
matter. Many traders point to what`s happening in Ukraine and Russia, as
being a big driver behind Friday`s selloff.

And even though Ukraine is thousands of miles away and has little to
do with the U.S. economy, it still matters. Armed conflict anywhere around
the world has a way of sending investors to the sidelines.

MICHAEL BINGER, GRADIENT INVESTMENT: I worry about if Russia spills
over to Europe. And Europe happens to be the second largest global economy
in the world. So if the tension there starts the contagion effect into
Europe, that`s going to affect the U.S. companies that sell their good
goods and services there, and I think it`s reason to be concerned and we`re
watching it very, very closely.

CHU: But worries about escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia
are only part of the story, another big driver for the stock market is
still coming by the earning season. Just about half of the companies in
the S&P 500 have reported their numbers and the results have been generally

Over two thirds of those companies have beaten Wall Street
expectations. Remember, though, that those expectations had already been
set very low this time around.

It will be another big week for earnings next week. Among the
companies slated to report, social networking company Twitter, drugmaker
Merck (NYSE:MRK), as well as oil and gas giant ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM). And
a lot of experts still say that company fundamentals like earnings and
sales still matter.

not just to the earnings that are being reported because, you know, there
can be a lot of one-time issues that go into that. But also what the
guidance is looking like, what the companies are saying about their
underlying business.

So, if we can find companies that are reporting good numbers and still
have good expectations for the rest of the year that`s a positive. And we
want to focus on those areas.

CHU: Beyond just this next week, you`ll still have companies like
Disney (NYSE:DIS), Whole Foods and Tesla that will report later on in the
season. As well as many of the major retail companies like Macy`s (NYSE:M)
and Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

(on camera): So, it`s too early to just sit back and relax just yet.
Investors are keeping a close eye on global developments and, of course,
that earnings picture.



GHARIB: Well, those global developments are also being closely
watched by our market monitor guest tonight.

Barbara Marcin is portfolio manager of the Gabelli Funds.

So, Barbara, how concerned should investors be about this whole
Ukraine situation? And if there are new sanctions, how significant would
that be?

BARBARA MARCIN, GABELLI FUNDS: I think it could be significant. You
know, we — I`m surprised that we haven`t seen more of a reaction. We have
seen a little bit of stock market reaction and, of course, the Russian
stock market and the ruble have reacted. But really in things that usually
price in risks around the world, such as, you know, higher yielding bonds
or riskier assets, sometimes you see reaction in oil, we haven`t really
seen much reaction so far.

So, I would say that`s ahead of us and I think it could be —

MATHISEN: Gold up a bit today. Bonds, the yields came down, which
indicates a sort of flight from risk.

MARCIN: That could be.

MATHISEN: So, taking that one off the table for now — earnings this
quarter have been roughly flat.


MATHISEN: Up a little bit. There is an awful lot riding on better
earnings in the current quarter and going forward, isn`t there?

MARCIN: I would agree. You know, we had the last couple of years —
certainly last year, earnings were up 5 percent year over year. And also
the year before, so 2012, `13, only 5 percent growth in earnings. So, last
year, all the market appreciation came from multiple expansions.

MATHISEN: Speculative.

MARCIN: Right. And we can`t really expect to get that this year.
So, we have been hoping for a stronger earnings period and it really
doesn`t look like we`re going to get it. If this year falls on the first
quarter, we`re again going to see an approximately 5 percent —

MATHISEN: Does that make stock prices vulnerable in your view?

MARCIN: It does. It does. The market multiple going forward is
about 15.2 times earnings, and that is a mediocre value if you`re at full
earnings. So, we`ve been hoping that would see an economic acceleration in
the second half of this year, but I`m not sure. We`ve seen some broad-
based housing momentum falling off.

So —

GHARIB: A lot of issues, earnings, the economy, and global
developments, but you still have a couple of stocks that you like, and I`m
sure our viewers want to hear all about them. Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) is at
the top of your list and here`s a stock that`s actually done very well so
far this year.

Is it worth it to put fresh money to Halliburton (NYSE:HAL)?


MARCIN: And I think there`s a lot more to go. And Halliburton
(NYSE:HAL) is a company that has strong growth and cash and earnings ahead
of it over the next few years and it`s selling at a chief valuation, which,
of course, is what we want to invest in.

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) is a leader in now pressure pumping, which is
used in hydraulic fracturing. So, it has very solid demand for its
services over the next three or four years. And it`s something about — I
think it closed today about $62 a share.

GHARIB: Absolutely right.

MARCIN: And I think this year, it`s going to earn about $4 a share.
But within the next few years, that can be $6.57 (ph). If we put a 13 or
14 multiple on it, we can have a $85, $90 stock. So, I think there is
strong growth ahead of this company.

MATHISEN: You like their stuff, you like their stock, Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL). Tell me this, though, Barbara, should I — I want you to
tell — give me the case for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). But also tell me —
should I buy it now ahead of the split or do I wait? Does it matter?

MARCIN: I would buy it right now. You know, yesterday`s action I
think showed how much pessimism there was. The stock was up 8 percent on
two and a half times the normal trading volume. So, I think you`re seeing
a reset. And then today, in a negative day, it held onto all of that and
still closed up a little bit. So, I would buy it now.

GHARIB: Up 4 percent.

MARCIN: Yes, 4 percent. Very cheap stock.

GHARIB: Do you have a target price on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)?

MARCIN: I — you know, I think that once we get — it is selling
about 12 times earnings, nine times without the cash. So, I think we`re
going to see an increased multiple when we get the big new product coming
and I think we`ll see the old highs. It`s over $700.

GHARIB: Seven hundred.

OK. Real quickly, AIG, you like AIG and this is a stock that has been
flat for the year around the $50 range, why do you like it?

MARCIN: Yes, again, a very inexpensive stock which I think can grow
dramatically over the next few years. Management is very motivated, very
sophisticated company with some good growth drivers ahead. Company is
selling about 75 percent of book value right now. Book value is about $68
as of the end of the year. If that goes to about $80 in the next two or
three years, and we get a 1.2 multiple. I think you can have a $100 stock.

MATHISEN: Disclosures? I assume you own all of these?

MARCIN: I own all three of these through my fund, which I own.

GHARIB: OK, terrific. Thank you so much for coming back.

MARCIN: Thank you.

GHARIB: Great having you on the program.

MARCIN: Great to be here.

GHARIB: Have a great weekend.

MARCIN: Thank you.

GHARIB: Barbara Marcin, portfolio manager with Gabelli Funds.

MATHISEN: Shares of Ford slamming on the brakes today, falling more
than 3 percent after profits shifted lower last quarter. And the automaker
warned of a leaner year ahead.

Our Phil LeBeau has more.


day for investors in the Ford Motor (NYSE:F) Company as shares of the
automaker were under pressure after the company reported first quarter
earnings that fell shy of estimates by 6 cents.

Now, there were a number of one-time charges that brought the earnings
down by about $900 million. What Wall Street was focusing on was the
underlying core business from Ford, and there`s a mix review there. Some
are looking at the overall run rating in terms of the auto business over
the next three quarters and they`re pretty optimistic about where Ford

But it`s the mix, in other words, how many trucks versus cars that
Ford was selling in the first quarter that got a little bit of attention.
That mix was negative, and it has a few — analysts wondering if Ford can
reverse that by the end of this year. The CFO of Ford says that definitely
will be happening.

BOB SHANKS, FORD CFO: We did have negative mix in the quarter. That
was around series mix and options, and related to the products that we`re
going to be running out as we move towards new models. For the full year,
we think that will be offset by favorable product mix, so the types of
products that we sell.

So, I think for the full year, that won`t be an issue.

LEBEAU: On the Ford earnings call, there were a number of questions
from analysts and reporters, about how long CEO Alan Mulally plans to stay
at the automaker. Mulally repeatedly said that there`s no change in his
plans, although we should point out that there have been a number of
reports that the board of Ford Motor (NYSE:F) Company is going to announce
a succession plan within the next 30 days and that Mulally will be leaving
Ford by the end of the year.

That`s the story from here at the New York Stock Exchange, Phil LeBeau


GHARIB: Ford`s losses were nothing compared to the sell off in Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN).com today. The stock got crushed, down nearly 10 percent,
making it the biggest decliner in the S&P 500. And that`s even thought it
posted quarterly earnings that were in line with expectations as we told
you last night.

Josh Lipton explains what`s troubling investors.


JEFF BEZOS, AMAZON: This is the original sign.

Jeff Bezos` strategy for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has been to deliver big
revenue growth which the company then aggressively reinvests in the
business. That`s meant small profits, but it`s a business strategy
investors have embraced because they believe in Bezos` vision, building an
e-commerce power house that also offers almost everything, from tablets to
cloud computing.

Now, some investors are losing their patience with Bezos after Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) ONCE AGAIN delivered strong sales but a disappointing profit

increasingly pushing out profitability. The market wants profitability
sooner. It`s not getting it from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). It`s getting the
revenue it wants, but not the profitability, hence the selloff from the

LIPTON: Amazon`s first quarter revenue jumped 23 percent to nearly
$20 billion driven by new customers and new products. But Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) intends to keep spending a lot of money on hardware such as
tablets and set top boxes, as well as video content and delivery services.

All that spending is having an impact on the bottom line. For the
second quarter, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) projects an operating loss of up to
$455 million. Stock dropped hard in today`s trade, suffering its worst day
in months. It`s now one of the worst performers this year in the S&P 500,
despite big gains in 2013.

Bulls say Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) remains an important point where the
company will enjoy both revenue acceleration and margin expansion.

MAHANEY: The market waxes and wanes on the desire, the need for
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to show profitability, a near term. My guess is that
once again somewhere later on this year or maybe even as far away as next
year, they`ll get a little bit of — little more leeway in the market for

LIPTON: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) shareholders are having a rough 2014,
and for the stock to get back on track, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) needs to prove
that all that investment will lead to big growth and more market gains.

Josh Lipton, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Silicon Valley.


MATHISEN: R.J. Hottovy joins us now with his analysis of Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN). He`s global director of consumer equity research out at
Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN).

R.J., great to see you again.

What if anything is the market telling Jeff Bezos or saying about
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and has it got the company right or not?

I think that the market right now is clearly fixated on the profitability
number. And really, I think it has lost a lot of patience at this point.
I mean, the company has been growing explosively the last couple of years.
And there always was this promise of profitability behind it.

And, you know, with the second quarter guidance looking for a loss
between $455 million and effectively $55 million, that puts a dent as to
whether or not the company can be profitable. But I think if you take look
at the numbers a little closer and look at the North America segment alone,
which generated operating profits of 4.7 percent, that shows what this
business can be. A lot of the investment the company is making are in
international segment.

And in my mind, there is no reason why the success the companies has
had in the U.S. business and North America can`t be replicated
internationally. I think there is a tremendous amount of demand for the
services that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) offers. And there`s a lot of
preparation that needs to be built up before the demand is satisfied. And
I think that`s what we really, we`ll start to see in years to come.

GHARIB: Yes. You know, R.J., you make a good point. I mean, they
have — Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has amazing products, hundreds of thousands of
people are using the service every single day. But having said that, do
you think that Jeff Bezos has to change something that he`s doing here?

HOTTOVY: Yes, I think he does a little bit, but I think we also saw
part of that this past quarter. I think that the company`s signal that
it`s looking a little bit closer to profitability was the increase in prime
memberships, the company raised the annual prime membership fee from $79 to
$99, I think if you take a look at, you know, the incremental profit that
comes from that, I think that`s the signal that company is a little bit
closer, focused on profitability across this entire portfolio.

And I think as we look, you know, not only as a prime but also Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) web services, the different things that can drive profit for
this business, they`re really just started to take hold. I think these
last couple of years was really a land grab story for this company, and
just, you know, locking in as many customers as you can. Now that got you
those customers locked in and giving them, frankly, a lot less reason to
shop anywhere else between Fire TV and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Dash, I think
you`ll start to see the company monetize those, you know, market share and
customer acquisitions gains the last couple of years, and start to build a
margin expansion story into what`s been one of the better gross revenue —


MATHISEN: The big selloff in the stock today, R.J., would you buy it
at this price? Or do you think it goes lower and they`ll be a better entry

HOTTOVY: No, I think it`s got some support at $300, right now, it —
to me, it`s quite a bit of a discount to my $400 fair value estimate. Four
hundred dollars is my fair value estimate, assumes that only mid-teen
revenue growth but also operating margins in the next single digit range
over the next five years, it doesn`t take a lot that with the revenue that
this company is generating, not a lot in terms of margin expansion for this
— really to generate a really strong free cash story. I think it`s been
overlooked. I like it right now, at current levels.

GHARIB: I just wanted to follow up on that, R.J., because in your
report, you said fair value 400, which you just said, buy it at $240, sell
it at $620. Talk us through a little bit on the $620 sell number.

HOTTOVY: Yes, so the way Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) looks at stocks is
we bake a margin of safety around our intrinsic value. My fair value on
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is $400, and based on your level of safety and comfort
with the free cash for the story going forward is what kind of level you
feel comfortable.

At $300, I feel pretty safe, it is a four-star name, which in our
terms is a buy. And I think that`s the right time to start looking at this
— $240 would be the trigger point for a strong buy for a name like this,
where you think the worse-case scenario has been priced. We feel
comfortable this is the absolute right time. I think $300 for most
investors` risk tolerance, it`s the right time to get in.

MATHISEN: All right. R.J., thank you very much. Have a great

HOTTOVY: You, too. Thank you.

MATHISEN: R.J. Hottovy, Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) analyst.

GHARIB: Still ahead on the program, with supply short and home prices
rising, many people aren`t buying, and focusing instead on their own houses
and spending big money to spruce things up.


MATHISEN: The initial public stock offering of Alibaba, the Internet
behemoth known as China`s Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).com and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)
combined, could be the biggest IPO ever. “The Wall Street Journal” says
interest in owning the piece of the e-commerce site is so high bankers say
it could push the amount of money raised to more than $20 billion, possibly
eclipsing the record of $22 billion in the Agricultural Bank of China`s IPO
back in 2010.

GHARIB: Colgate Palmolive reported a 16 percent drop in profits, and
that`s where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

The consumer products maker was forced to take a charge because of the
fall in the value of Venezuela`s currency. Latin America is Colgate`s
biggest market in terms of sales. Still, earnings and revenue matched the
Wall Street estimate. Colgate`s shares fell slightly to $66.24.

Burger King served up a higher first profit, but revenues came in
lower than analyst estimates. New restaurant openings overseas and cost-
cutting efforts helped the chain to offset weak sales in the U.S. Shares
rose more than 2 percent to $26.35.

And Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) signed a deal with three cable companies to
bring its service to set top boxes. Its streaming video will for the first
time be integrated into TiVo`s devices for customers of three small U.S.
cable operators. You still have to subscribe to Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) but
those companies won`t need a streaming device to watch Netflix
(NASDAQ:NFLX). Shares tumbled 7 percent despite the dealing, closing at
$322 and change.

MATHISEN: And Kellogg (NYSE:K) announced plans to hike its quarterly
dividend by 6 1/2 percent later this year. Separately, it named its CEO
John Bryant as its new chairman. He replaces former CEO James Jenness in
that role. Jenness will remain on the board as a non-executive director.
We will find out more about the food company next week when it is expected
to report its earnings. Shares were up a fraction to $66.71.

VF Corporation saw its first quarter earnings climb 10 percent. The
apparel maker saw double digit sales growth in its outdoor unit. No
surprise there. North Face is one of its big brands, so is Nautica, also
upped its full year earnings outlook, VF did. That sent shares up more
than 2 percent to $61.41.

Whirlpool`s first quarter sales were higher, but earnings came in
well-below forecast. Currency and other headwinds in Latin America and
Asia offset modest sales increases in North America and Europe. The
appliance maker also blamed brutal winter weather in the U.S. for keeping
customers out of show rooms, and for disrupting shipments. Shares were up
a fraction today nonetheless to $155.42.

GHARIB: A real setback in the housing recovery, and you can blame it
on rising prices and higher interest rates. A housing industry news letter
reports mortgage lending fell to the lowest level in 14 years as homeowners
cut back on re-financing and applications for new loans from potential home

MATHISEN: And the head of Freddie Mac warns that a Senate bill aimed
at shutting down the government-run mortgage financer and its sister
company, Fannie Mae, could pose a risk to the stability of the mortgage
market. Freddie Mac CEO Donald Layton alerted lawmakers that giving the
private lending market a bigger role right away before the companies are
eventually phased out would undermine the important roles in his view that
Fannie and Freddie play in guaranteeing 60 percent of the nation`s home

GHARIB: Now, if you`ve been looking to buy a bigger home or to
downsize to a smaller one, you`re probably finding there isn`t much out
there on the market.

So, it`s no wonder many home buyers are now thinking about remodeling
their own home instead of buying a new one.

Diana Olick has more on the push to renovate.


Riley family is re-thinking the way they live. With one child already in
college and another leaving in the fall, you might think they would be
looking to down size. But it is just the opposite, because they expect the
kids to move back in.

JULIE RILEY, HOMEOWNER: For them to come back here, they`re going to
spend thousands of dollars a month on rent. So, the idea was to build a
suite downstairs for them to have their own space when they came back home.
And we had our own space on a separate floor.

OLICK: Like so many others, frustrated by higher home prices and
limited supply, the Rileys are choosing to renovate.

people are re-doing their house instead of moving. We have seen a big
spike in business, especially in the first quarter. There seems to be a
good amount of pent-up energy on the remodel side.

OLICK: Remodeling has been surging in the past year as people regain
both home equity and confidence in the housing market. They are still,
however, slightly gun shy.

still very nervous about over-building your neighborhood. Putting more
money in your house than you can get back if you were going to sell it.
So, we`re seeing, for example, not $125,000 kitchen remodels but 30,000,
40,000, 50,000 kitchen remodels.

OLICK (on camera): Architectures reported a jump in most sectors of
remodeling in 2013, with additions and kitchen and bath remodels leading
the surge. Only project by first-time buyers were weaker as prices of both
homes and redoes rose.

shortage in our market, and the builders are very aware, not just in
flooring but in all trades. So, they understand that we have to bump up
our labor rates to get all the products installed.

OLICK: Remodeling did slow during this rough winter. So, contractors
are expecting a surge in pent-up demand during the spring and summer. But
then it should level off again in the fall as the housing appears to be
losing some momentum.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.


MATHISEN: And coming up, Instagram isn`t yet turning a profit for its
owner, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), but that is not stopping some users from
making money, a lot of it. That story, next.


GHARIB: The push to unionize is spreading at JetBlue. More than
4,000 flight attendants are lobbying to hold the vote on whether or not to
unionize. They are working with the Transport Workers Union of America
after a similar drive last year fell short of the necessary number of yeses
to force a vote.

Earlier this week, JetBlue`s pilots voted to become the first group
with the carrier to unionize.

MATHISEN: Finally tonight, a look at how some young millennials with
an outsize influence on a lot of social media customers are actually
getting paid by brands to post photos and comments on Instagram, touting
their products and services. And it turns out being Insta-famous or having
thousands of followers on the social media Web site can be a pretty good

Courtney Reagan has more.


would have told me, oh, some of your favorite brands and stores, you`re
actually going to like, they`re going to choose you to be the face of an
event, or for an advertorial in a magazine, I`d be like, OK, sure.

passed 400,000 it was a little crazy, because brands wanted to pay me good
money to mention them and to do what I do naturally.

Justin Livingston and Danielle Bernstein are considered influencers, sought
after bloggers paid enough by brands for mentions in photos on social media
to make it their full-time jobs, a job that can pay between $60,000 and
$255,000 per year.

JENNIFER POWELL: When you have a person with 2 million Instagram
followers, that`s direct consumer advertising. It`s just — it`s a no-

with the client, then we go higher out of this pool of Instagrammers, in
which they`re taking photographs and they`re talking about the campaign in
the captions.

REAGAN: It`s cheaper, it`s social. But is it sneaky?

BERNSTEIN: When they do giveaways, those are clearly advertising for
the brand.

LIVINGSTON: I think that readers aren`t naive. They know that for
bloggers that have found success, that this is something that is a business

DIFEO: So, they typically are disclosing by thanking the client or
saying they`re excited to be working with the client. Other times —

REAGAN (on camera): And that`s enough.

DIFEO: That`s enough, sure. Other times can you add a hashtag
sponsored or commissions.

REAGAN: Would it bother you to know that some people are being paid
or compensated in some way to post an Instagram picture wearing their new
pair of Nikes?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Never bothered me.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That`s not really what Instagram is for.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good for them. I kind of envy them actually. To
show a cool pair of shows on Instagram, I wish I could do that.

REAGAN (voice-over): The influencers say it has to feel authentic.

BERNSTEIN: I stay really true to myself, I wouldn`t just work with a
brand because they want to pay me.

LIVINGSTON: I don`t want to feel like I`m shucking some product like
Snuggy, like my reader is going to be like, wait a second.

REAGAN (on camera): Wait a second.

(voice-over): There`s an entire ecosystem making money off Instagram.
Anyone, it seems but Instagram itself.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Courtney Reagan in New York.


MATHISEN: Let`s take a selfie here, Susie, I don`t really know how to
do this. But let`s take one.

Say good night, Susie.

GHARIB: Good night, Tyler. And I hope we have 2 million followers.


MATHISEN: That will do it for tonight`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. I`m
not Susie Gharib. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thanks for watching.

We`ll see you Monday.

GHARIB: We`ll see you Monday.


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