Transcript: Thursday, April 10, 2014

NBR ThumANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib.

trampled. The Dow drops more than 250 points. The NASDAQ has its worst
day since November 2011. The reason? Nobody can really explain it.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) report earnings tomorrow and
what they say could determine whether the selling continues.

MATHISEN: Game changer? Now that the curtain is being pulled back on
how doctors are reimbursed under Medicare, are more big changes ahead?
Howard Dean joins us with his prescription for health care.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday,
April 10th.

GHARIB: Good evening, everyone.

A nasty and dramatic selloff on Wall Street today with a rare triple
digit loss on the NASDAQ. Red was the color of the day with all 10 S&P
sectors down sharply.

Here are the sobering numbers: the Dow tumbled 267 points. The NASDAQ
plunged 130 points. That`s a 3 percent drop and its worst day since
November of 2011. And the S&P fell 39 points. That`s a 2 percent slide.

One big reason for the NASDAQ decline, more selling in the biotech
stocks. Take a look at the bio tech ETF plummeting more than 5 1/2 percent

So, what happened? Surprisingly, traders and market pros were
stumped. Usually, they blame a steep slide on an economic report, a global
crisis or even the weather, but there was no one real culprit today. In
fact, there were some encouraging news on the economy, with upbeat reports
on jobless claims and home disclosures falling to seven-year lows.

We have two reports tonight, looking at the market action from the New
York Stock Exchange and the hard-hit NASDAQ.

We begin with Sheila Dharmarajan at the NASDAQ.


action is quite the reversal from the two-day rally we saw earlier in the
week and more than wiped out these gains. Getting hit the hardest are the
biotech stock. NASDAQ biotech index down nearly 6 percent on the day, and
also high-flying so-called momentum stocks. These are the stocks that
consistently move in the direction regardless of news. Now, that direction
is down, with names like Tesla, Micron, Priceline, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX),
declining more than 3 percent today.

As for the why, there`s no particular reason that can be blamed.
After all, the economic reports have been strong, and earnings season isn`t
quite in full swing yet. So traders I speak to say there`s simply a shift
in momentum and investors are taking profits. Keep in mind that the NASDAQ
did rise more than 35 percent in 2013.

As for whether the selloff will continue, earning season which kicks
off for the big banks tomorrow will be the next catalyst for a move in
either direction.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Sheila Dharmarajan at the NASDAQ
market sites.



yesterday, it was an ugly day for the market. Health care, tech, consumer
discretionary and financials were among the biggest downside sectors.

It`s a confusing moment for the market because it is not clear where
the economy is going. The bears are arguing it`s hard to force the markets
higher without clear evidence the market is improving. Today, they held
the upper hand as the traders sold stocks and bought bonds.

But the bulls have been arguing that the economy is improving but we
are not going to blast off in the month of April. There is a gradual
recovery and there is no reason to pay off a lot of money for overpriced
growth stocks like Pandora or Tesla or Yelp, if the economy is improving,
because you can get modest growth cheaper by buying old school names like
IBM, or Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), or even Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), all of
which had modest gains this year.

So, who is right? We will get greater clarity when companies begin
reporting tomorrow and begin offering guidance for their current quarter
like Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

Here is one canary in the coalmine to watch. There are eight IPOs
that are scheduled to begin trading tomorrow, including restaurateur Zoes
Kitchen. It wouldn`t be a big surprise to see one or more of them
postponed due to poor market conditions.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at New York Stock


MATHISEN: And joining us now to talk more about today`s market
selloff is Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital

Mr. Paulsen, welcome. Good to have you with us.

Should any one of us be surprised that the market is selling off, most
especially NASDAQ with the price-to-earnings ratio something like 35 times?

No, I don`t think so really, Tyler. I mean, it`s been a long time since
we`ve had, what, 2 percent decline in the S&P or 3 percent decline in the
NASDAQ? And I think that`s what the market does, every now and then, just
to make sure our hearts are working for us investors.

But, yes, I think we`ve had a big valuation correction in one small
part of the marketplace. The biotech, momentum high flying story stocks,
maybe that`s not a bad thing longer term for investors. But in the short
term, it has been very sharp and very eye-catching.

GHARIB: All right. So, we have been having a zigzag kind of trading
for a while now, Jim. But I mean, is there something else going on? Is
this going to be the market correction that so many strategists have been
talking about?

PAULSEN: One never knows, Susie, and I certainly don`t know either.
It certainly could continue on. There wasn`t a big show of any bottom

But I — my guess is it`s more of an opportunity here than the start
of a 10 percent or more correction, primarily because the underlying
economic reports here remain very favorable. They continue to surpass
expectations. This morning`s report on unemployment claims was another
report that was better than people thought — suggesting economic momentum
was very good.

If that stays in place, then I think greed will return to this market
and more and more people will start looking at lower values and start
stepping up again, pushing the market higher.

So I don`t know if it goes much lower, I think if we do have a
correction this year. It will be from higher levels than we have right

MATHISEN: Let`s bring in Joe Duran, CEO of United Capital Advisers.

Joe, welcome.

Jim Paulsen just made the point that for the most part, the selling
has been concentrated in what we describe as the momentum names, the stocks
that go up because they`ve been going up, basically — biotech, small caps
technology. But today, certainly, and in recent days, there has been some
bleed to the Dow stocks and to the blue chips in the S&P 500.

How vulnerable is this market? And is this the time to buy the
companies that have been on your buy list and you`ve been waiting for them
to come down?

that the market is vulnerable. What I look at are two things for me that
tell signs of when you should be stepping in safely.

We are very optimistic in the long-term, but there are times which you
want to be careful. And right now, there are two things that concern me.
The first one most importantly is we had a pretty big down day today. We
have had a couple of them. And the VIX, the measure of fear, is really not
reacting the way you would expect, given an almost 300-point drop.

So, we were up a couple of points today to 16. You want to see that
approaching 20 as a relatively safe entry point if you`re in a big decline.

The second thing that concerns me, frankly, more in a long-term sense
is what`s been happening with the bond market. When you have interest
rates flattening out, that`s telling you that the bond market thinks that
the economy is not doing as well as you think. And a lot of us who are
optimistic have been hoping for a significant pick-up in the economy in the
second half. I`m not sure we`re going to get that.

And the bond market tends to be more right than the stock market. So,
I`m a little bit more concerned with that, as well. And I think as I
mentioned on your show, a couple of days ago, I was nervous the things were
not looking like I would expect if we were in fact a continuation of what
has been an amazing move.

GHARIB: OK. So if you`re nervous, Joe, and you`re saying it`s a
little bit risky to be buying stocks even though there are buying
opportunities — is it risky to hold onto stocks that have been doing. You
still like them. The fundamentals haven`t changed, but you see big

You`re looking at companies, whether it`s Google (NASDAQ:GOOG),
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), or Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), that today were down by 4
percent or more. Is it too risky to hold on to these?

DURAN: No, I think the first thing everyone should do is make sure
their overall allocation is right. You know we talked about this at the
end of last year when you have a big 30 percent move on stocks and the bond
market is negative, your ability to have an allocation that`s far more
aggressive than you should have is very easy. And the market is still
relatively flat for the year so we should hold it in context, it`s been
disappointing because we started the year off quite well.

But the thing to hold in context is to say, you know, we`re still
doing fine, look at your overall allocation and don`t make any abrupt
moves. Now, there are a lot of day traders, in the long term, you want to
be careful.

MATHISEN: Jim, respond to what Joe just said.

PAULSEN: Yes, I think Joe is looking for bond yields to come down but
really bond yields have been in the same range now since last summer. I
don`t know if there`s any strong message there. What I`m attracted to some
of the messages coming out of the equity market, in this pullback, Tyler,
look at the relative price performance within the inter-term make-up of the
market here, the emerging stocks are doing phenomenal on a relative basis,
they`re now outperforming the U.S. stock market year-to-date, within the
United States, the industrials are holding up well, the transports are
holding up well, the basic material stocks are holding up well.

In other words, the most cyclical areas of the economy are doing well,
through this pullback, which tells me, this is more about a short-term
valuation adjustment in a one small part of the market. The great broader
part of the market still is showing signs of improvement in the economy.

And I think if anything we`re doing good things with this. We`re
bringing down rates, bringing down the hurdle for stocks. We`re creating a
little fear, which is causing people to raise some cash. That`s new buying
power for the future and we`re cheapening stocks overall.

And I think we`re setting ourselves up for another rally to higher
highs before this year is out. So, I look at this more as a buying
opportunity rather than something that you should run —

MATHISEN: And Joe sees it the other way. And there —

DURAN: No, no, I agree a little — just —


MATHISEN: We have to leave it. I`m sorry, Joe, very much. But
that`s how a market is made. You see it one way, Joe, a little more
cautiously, and he says we`re not afraid enough yet.

But anyway, thank you gentlemen. Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital
Management, and Joe Duran of United Capital Financial Advisers.

GHARIB: Well, as we`ve been reporting, there could be a lot more
turmoil in the markets tomorrow, because two of the nation`s biggest banks
report first quarter earnings. We`re talking about Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)
and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Chase.

Kayla Tausche joins us now with a preview of those closely watched
earnings releases ands what investors will be looking for in the numbers.

You know, Kayla, when people look at banks, they`re always thinking
about mortgage fees, loans, treating revenues. Are these going to be the
drivers of banking revenues or something else?

And, Susie, there is a little bit of something for everyone. There`s a
little bit of good, a little bit of bad. The good thing is, banks are
ultimately barometers of the underlying economy, and the economy is getting
better. Credit is improving, loans are growing albeit slightly, consumer
spending is up slightly. But trading revenues are expected to be negative.
Unfortunately, the weather hurt the banks as well as the retailers. They
are not immune from this.

A lot of people were not trading during the harsh winter storms that
happened throughout the quarter. Nomura says that that alone could drive
revenues down 10 percent as some of these big institutions that has very
active investment banks.

MATHISEN: How much are some of the legal settlements going to affect
the earnings or has that wave crested?

TAUSCHE: You know, Tyler, it feels like we`re in the eye of the storm
here. We`re not in the worst of it on either side. It seems like we`re
just in this very awkward quiet period.

We have had a couple of scandals erupt, but we haven`t seen the end of
those. So, for instance, fraud in Citi`s Mexican unit, that was news that
broke this quarter. A lot of banks are being investigated for foreign
exchange and interest rate rigging. Still, we haven`t seen those
settlements come to pass.

Now, we do have the bulk of them behind us. A lot of settlements from
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), on the mortgage front, they had a big
settlement with the FHFA and with some of their private investors. And
then we also had JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) well behind us.

So, you`re not going to see some of the giant blockbuster fees paid
but this isn`t the end of it certainly from the legal front.

GHARIB: All right. So, you mentioned the couple of banks, you know,
when you sort through all of it. Which ones are expected to report solid
reports, which one won`t be — you know, what are you hearing?

TAUSCHE: Unfortunately, Susie, no one really thinks this is going to
be a blockbuster quarter, they have raised estimates for Wells Fargo
(NYSE:WFC) for the year, thinking that more home buying and rising interest
rates will help wells Fargo. Citigroup (NYSE:C) is one that`s on the
downside, people are not willing to say as a buy just yet, because of all
the issues plaguing Citigroup (NYSE:C).

MATHISEN: Kayla, thanks very much. Kayla Tausche, reporting for us

A setback for consumers fighting other big issues. A federal judge
dismissed a lawsuit against three of the nation`s largest credit card
issuers, accusing them of colluding to require that cardholder disputes be
settled in arbitration hearings rather than by class action lawsuits.
Despite the win, shares of all three of those credit card giants named in
the suit, Citigroup (NYSE:C), American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP),
Discover Financial, all ended lower on this down day in the markets.

GHARIB: We have an update now on the troubles in General Motors
(NYSE:GM) and the recall of 2.5 million cars for faulty ignition switches.
Now, the automaker says it will take a 1.3 billion charge in the first
quarter for the cost of all those recalls. That`s much more than the
previously announced charge of $300 million.

Also, GM has placed two of its engineers on leave with pay for their
role in delaying that ignition switch recall.

MATHISEN: And still ahead, now that we know more about how much
doctors get paid for Medicare, will it lead to greater change? Former
Vermont Governor Howard Dean, and a physician, discusses the future of the
health care industry.


MATHISEN: Some good news from a troubled economy, Greece, in that
nation`s first bond offering in four years when it was bailed out by
eurozone officials. The country saw a strong demand for its debt today,
raising more than $4 billion from investors.

GHARIB: And some good news on the U.S. federal budget deficit is
shrinking, with more Americans working and tax receipts, of course,
growing. The government`s budget shortfall has dropped to just $37 billion
in March. That`s down from $107 billion in the same month last year.

MATHISEN: Shares of Ally Financial stumbled in the company`s trading
debut, and that is where we begin tonight`s “Market Focus”.

Ninety-five million of Ally shares were offered at the low end of
expected range, $25 apiece. The sale did raise about $2.4 billion, making
it the year`s biggest initial public offering so far. The shares were sold
by the U.S. government, that means you and me, which took the $17 billion
stake in the auto lender during the 2008 financial crisis. The shares were
off 4 percent in the debut, to $23.98.

Shares of Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) surged after the drug store chain
announced a full year sales forecast above analyst estimates. The company
expects to benefit from new generic drug launches and thinks it will enroll
more customers in its loyalty program. Earnings easily topped estimate
because of strong pharmacy sales. That sent the stock up 8 1/2 percent
today to $6.94.

GHARIB: Well, it was the opposite story for Family Dollar, the
discount retailer announced an earnings miss, blaming harsh, winter
weather. It also says it will close 370 stores and cut prices on a lot of
back items. Shares fell more than 3 percent to $57.17.

EBay and Carl Icahn have ended their proxy fight. Icahn agreed to
drop his proposal that the company split off its PayPal business and he
withdrew his two nominees from the board. But eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) will
appoint one of Icahn`s suggested members. The company is CEO says eBay
(NASDAQ:EBAY) will now focus on books.


JOHN DONAHOE, EBAY CEO: We thought we were going to win the vote,
but, you know, Carl himself said, look, let`s make peace, not war. This
proxy battle was not something that was helping eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY)
shareholders or helping us innovate and execute more effectively.

So, now, that`s behind us we can focus on what`s more important which
is competing in the market and driving strong innovation which will drive
strong growth.


GHARIB: Despite those optimistic comments, eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) shares
fell more than 3 percent to $54 and change.

And Merck (NYSE:MRK) says its hepatitis C treatment showed a 98
percent cure rate in the mid-stage trial. The two-drug combination pill
stopped the virus in newly treated patients with few major side effects.
Despite that, Merck (NYSE:MRK) couldn`t escape the down drop of the market
and its shares lost more than 2 percent to $55.85.

MATHISEN: A new milestone for the Affordable Care Act, President
Obama signature legislation. The figures out today from Health and Human
Services show more than 7.5 million Americans have signed up for a health
insurance plan through the ACA`s state and federal online marketplaces.

GHARIB: But doctors, patients, insurers and regulators are still
talking about another batch of numbers. We`re talking about those Medicare
payments to physicians that yesterday were made public for the first time

Joining us to talk more about them, Howard Dean. He`s former governor
of Vermont and advocate for universal health coverage for Americans.

Mr. Dean, thank you so much for coming on the program to talk about

You know, now that we know more about what doctors are getting paid,
do you think that this is the beginning of a game changer, a change
movement between how physicians, how patients, how regulators all interact
with one another?

this is not the beginning, this has been going on for a long time but this
is a major milestone. One of the biggest problems in medical care, as we
know, is lack of transparency, and the costs that have been out of control
for 30 years, exceeding the rate of inflation every single year for 30

So, transparency is the first step towards trying to figure out what`s
the matter with the system. And I think these figures are in some ways
shocking. And now, we`re going to drill down on those figures, find out
why these folks are getting paid to what they`re getting paid, and whether
the care they`re delivering is worth it, not only to the people who get it,
but also to the American people.

MATHISEN: You know, Governor, I — one of the things that stood out
to me was that it goes to the heart of what is described as fee for service

DEAN: Right.

MATHISEN: Doctors who performed the more services got the more fees,
big shocker there. Is that the heart of the problem in American medicine

DEAN: Yes, it`s the heart of the problem. People are always blaming
trial lawyers or insurance companies or drug companies and also — the
biggest problem is we have an incentive system to spend as much as we
possibly can. And if we`re ever going to control costs in this country, no
amount of tort reform or different compensation systems are going to be
fixed unless you get rid of fee for service medicine. And I think that has
now become widely accepted among people who really understand how to deal
with health care.

So, that`s — interestingly enough, Obamacare, because it created this
ACO, the vertically integrated health care systems, is now able to move
towards a flat fee basis, take all comers for a flat fee per patient. And
that is going to get rid of this incredible drive to do many, many more
procedures that are necessary.

GHARIB: But do you see a down side to that? You know, the American
health care system is raved at all around the world for its high tech and
the high quality doctors, is there a down side?

DEAN: There is a down side. First of all, of course, there`s
cheaters in ever profession, and mine is not an exception. So, there will
be people who short payments.

Right now, people are endangered by getting too much care. You can be
endangered by getting too little. But we spend almost twice as much as the
next country, as a percentage of gross of national product. There`s a lot
of downside and there will have to be some regulation. The other greater
danger, which we`re going to have to deal with is the question of

If you can sell 10,000 medical devices, you can make money off cutting
edge medical devices, if you can only sell 3,000, because you don`t really
need those other 7,000, and people are putting them in to take advantage of
pay for service medicine, then you may not be able to make money.

So, you do have to worry about in innovation. But we cannot afford to
keep on with fee for service medicine. I think you can say good-bye to fee
for service medicine. It may take two years. It may take five years, but
we can`t continue in this spending pattern.

MATHISEN: And so, just to clarify — what replaces it?

DEAN: What replaces it, essentially, is a model that looks very much
like Kaiser, you sign up for Kaiser. You get comprehensive care, and you
get a flat fee, and you pay a flat fee and that`s all they get.

So, their incentive is to take care of you. This is essentially a way
of financing a wellness system. Right now, we have an illness system. We
get paid a lot of you get really sick. What we`d like is to get paid a lot
essentially by saving expenditures, by keeping you healthy, keeping you
out of dialysis, instead of putting you in dialysis.

And that means early taking care of diabetes, early taking care of
high cholesterol, early taking care of obesity, and not waiting until you
end up in the intensive care unit for those problems when you`re 55 or 60.

GHARIB: All right. Governor Dean, thank you so much. Howard Dean,
former governor —

DEAN: Thanks for having me on.

GHARIB: — of Vermont. It`s our pleasure.

And coming up, the weather warms up. Are some of the nation`s biggest
retailers seeing a spring thaw in their monthly sales? That`s coming up.


GHARIB: A huge settlement from a now shuttered hedge fund which will
pay the largest criminal fine ever imposed for an insider trading case,
$900 million. A federal judge worked out a deal where SAC Capital founded
and run by billionaire founder Steven A. Cohen will pay a total of $1.8
billion after the firm and three subsidiaries pleaded guilty to wire fraud
and securities fraud charges. Eight former employees of SAC Capital which
has been shut down have been convicted of insider trading.

MATHISEN: And Walmart is going natural. The world`s largest retailer
is teaming up with organic foods maker Wild Oats to market more affordable,
all natural packaged foods to its bargain conscious shoppers. Walmart
expects the new Wild Oats organic offerings to cost 25 percent less than
other organic brand it sells. Shares of Walmart down 1 percent today,
while shares of organic foods retail Whole Foods dropped 4 percent.

GHARIB: Well, tight-fisted consumers are not just watching what they
spend on food, they`re cautious about all kinds of spending, as we saw on
the sales drops at a number of clothing chain that reported March numbers
after the market close today. Take Gap (NYSE:GPS) stores for instance,
sales fell 6 percent, and numbers from its namesake stores were well below
expectations. That sent shares initially lower in after-hours trading.

Courtney Reagan has more on the impact of all that wicked winter
weather as retailers hope more consumers catch a little spring fever.


This year has been harsh for retailers, with severe winter weather keeping
shoppers at home, cranking up the heat, subsequently cutting into budgets.
With spring weather slow to spread across the country, and Easter landing
three weeks later this year, Wall Street has low expectations for retailers
March sales.

However, Costco (NASDAQ:COST) (AUDIO GAP) surprise to the upside, with
sales (AUDIO GAP) gaining 5 percent, shoppers traffic also up 5 percent for
the month. Though analysts say, recently, Costco (NASDAQ:COST) is a rare
steady stand out in the retail space.

groceries to stay at home. Also on top of that, we have the shift of the
Easter effect which definitely benefited one more day in the month of March
and helped sales for Costco (NASDAQ:COST).

REAGAN: L Brands, the retailer that owns The Limited, Victoria`s
Secret and Bath & Body Works saw March sales fall 1 percent, better than
expected but certainly not inspiring.

(on camera): FBR analyst Susan Anderson (ph) thinks L Brands is going
to have to increase those promotions to clear some of the inventory that
didn`t sell. That`s helpful, though, for consumers looking to sell Easter
baskets and spring wardrobes.

MARTIS-OLIVO: The month of April, we`re going to see consumers
receive a boost from their tax returns and also we usually find that
historically, the month that Easter falls in tends to perform very well as
consumers go back and buy new spring merchandise at full price.

On top of that, there`s some pent up demand because shoppers have
stayed at home for the past few months.

REAGAN: Leaving retailers and investors hanging hope on the Easter

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Courtney Reagan in Tucson, Arizona.


MATHISEN: Finally tonight, a big change comes to the late-night TV
landscape. It took less than a week for CBS (NYSE:CBS) to tap comedian
Stephen Colbert to succeed David Letterman when he retires sometime next
year, after hosting late night for more than two decades. Colbert is host
of “The Colbert Report” on cable`s Comedy Central for the last 10 years.

He inked a five-year deal to join late night on CBS (NYSE:CBS). No
word on how much the deal is worth. Plenty, I bet.

GHARIB: Big bucks. Absolutely.

That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for us, I`m Susie Gharib. Thanks for

And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a great evening, everybody. We`ll see
you back here tomorrow night.


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