If you follow quirky market indicators, you know what that means. The so-called January indicator says that as goes January, so goes the year.
For instance, points out market pro Mark Hulbert, since 1973, if the market rises in January, it typically follows through over the next 11 months to gain an average of 11.2%. That compares, says Hulbert, to an average February-through-December gain of just 0.2% in years when January was a loser.
Then there’s the so-called Super Bowl indicator.
It posits that when a team from the original National Football League wins the big game, the market gains an average of 12% or so. When an original AFL or expansion team wins, the S&P 500 index averages a 1.3% loss.
Trouble is, this year neither team is an NFL original. Not the old AFL Broncos nor the expansion Seahawks.
Put the indicators together and the road ahead would seem to be littered with black cats.
But if you like to look on the bright side, consider this: Despite the fact the Broncos are and AFL/AFC stalwart, the two times the Broncos won the big game, back in ’98 and ’99, the market gained 28% and 15% for the year.
Now I’m not sayin’ root for Denver. I’m just sayin’