Transcript: Friday, November 29, 2013

nightly-business-report-september-25-201321-300x225ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you in part by —

(COMMERCIAL AD)

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Holiday hangover.
Investors return from Thanksgiving, minus the holiday spirit. Selling off
late and snapping the Dow`s record streak of all time closing highs at
5:00.

Black Friday frenzy. Retailers open earlier and customers didn`t
disappoint, snapping up big ticket items. But is the best still to come?

And big name hunting. Our market monitor has some well known stocks
he says to get you up to 10 percent in the next year.

All that and more for this November 29th edition of NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT.

Good evening, everyone. And I hope your Thanksgiving was a great one.
Susie is off tonight. She`ll rejoin us on Monday.

Well, it may have been black Friday at the malls, but on Wall Street
you could have called it flat Friday. Trading was light with the markets
closing at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, and the major stock indexes ending the
day mixed. But Wall Street wraps up an historic month of November with 12
record high closings for the Dow.

And the Dow and the S&P finished this month with their eighth straight
week of gains. Today stocks faded just before the early closing time, but
earlier in the day, the Dow and the S&P, and the Dow Transports and the
Russell 2000 all hit record highs.

Here`s a look at today`s closing numbers, the Dow, 11 points lower,
the NASDAQ, though, up 15, now solidly above that 4,000 mark, and the S&P
basically flat about 1 1/2.

But for the month of November, look at this, blue chip Dow soaring 3.5
percent. The NASDAQ was up 3.6 percent, and the S&P 500 up 2.8 percent. A
good month all around.

But while shoppers flocked to stores on this Black Friday and many
more headed out on the Thanksgiving holiday, the early word is that the
season has started out quite strongly. Shares of many of the major
retailers started strongly today, but then they faded like the rest of the
market.

The one stand out, Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), adding more than 2 percent on
the day.

Courtney Reagan is in Dayton, Ohio, where she had a front row seat for
all the Black Friday goings on.

Courtney, let`s start with how strong overall the traffic has been
where you are.

COURTNEY REAGAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I have
to say, Tyler, that the traffic has been pretty strong. I`m pleasantly
surprised by what I saw. It seems as if we saw a lot of traffic flow at
the big box retailers on Thursday afternoon and early evening, and by big
box, I`m talking about Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Best Buy
(NYSE:BBY), the ones who had those door buster specials, a lot of focus on
electronics there.

Then, we did see a lull, I`ll admit it, overnight and the predawn
hours, because of the Thanksgiving hours, folks opted not to get up at 5:00
a.m., but as the day`s worn on, I got to say, traffic has really picked up
here in Dayton, Ohio, at the mall. I think retailers will probably end up
being quite pleased.

MATHISEN: Who are the winners (ph) so far?

REAGAN: If we think about the winners so far, at least what I`m
hearing from analysts around the country, as well as what`s really matching
here today anecdotally. It seems like Macy`s (NYSE:M) is by far and away
one of the winners. They have some really nice door buster deals on strong
brand names. There were 15,000, folks. CEO of Macy`s (NYSE:M) said lined
up outside the flagship store. A lot of bags coming out with the Macy`s
(NYSE:M) logo on them.

Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) also likely a winner, they are saying they are
having their best Black Friday in history. So far we don`t know the exact
numbers, but sounding very promising there. Losers: Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD)
and Kmart. Kmart actually opened at 6:00 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day.
Doesn`t seem it attracted many shoppers, though.

MATHISEN: Quick thought on online shopping. What are you hearing
there?

REAGAN: IBM says that Thanksgiving sales online up 20 percent.
Department stores, very strong online. They are a standout of 60 percent
sale number-wise from what we saw last year. Apparel one of the strongest
categories online.

So far, it looks like we`re seeing decent traffic on the computer, as
well as here in the stores — Tyler.

MATHISEN: Bring me back one of those wonderful killer brownies from
out there in Dayton, will you?

REAGAN: I will do it. I will do it, for sure.

MATHISEN: All right. Have a great weekend, Courtney. Courtney
Reagan reporting. It was not all smooth sailing in Thursday night shopping
frenzy. A fight broke out in a Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) in Elkin, North
Carolina, apparently over discounted flat screen televisions.

Look at that. Similar incidents have also been reported elsewhere
around the country.

REAGAN: And at 1,500, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) stores across the nation
protesters were planned by workers rights groups, unions and Wal-Mart
(NYSE:WMT) employees, demanding higher wages, more full-time positions, and
better working conditions.

At this Chicago Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), 10 protesters were arrested after
scuffling with police. Only two of them were actual Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)
workers.

With sales off to a strong start this holiday weekend, experts are
predicting a very merry holiday shopping season for stores. The National
Retail Federation predicts $602 billion in total consumer spending in the
final two months of the year, the official town of the holiday season.
That`s a nearly 4 percent increase from last year.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEW SHAY, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION CEO: We`re predicting 3.9
percent growth. So, we think it`s going to be a very strong season.
Historically, for the last 10 years, the average has been about 3.5
percent. So, we`re going to do better than that.

But we`re not back to the pre-recession number of high single digits,
6 percent, 7 percent, 8 percent, and a lot of that is due to the fact
you`ve got these somewhat hollow indexes, so we look at the stock market,
we look at interest rates, we look at housing prices, and that would seem
to indicate a robust and growing and healthy economy, but for many
consumers, they don`t feel that way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATHISEN: Well, joining us to talk more about the holiday retail
season and small business Saturday, which is tomorrow, is Ed Gilligan.
He`s the president at American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP). Mr.
Gilligan, welcome, good to have you with us.

ED GILLIGAN, AMERICAN EXPRESS: Thank you, Tyler.

MATHISEN: Are you seeing what the individuals from the National
Retail Federation just reported, and that is receipts are going to be up by
about 4 percent?

GILLIGAN: Well, you know, we did a lot of research leading into this
holiday shopping season, and it was clear to us that consumers are planning
to spend more this holiday season than last year — 3 percent, 4 percent, 5
percent gains certainly seem possible. So, we`re cautiously optimistic for
retailers of all sizes.

MATHISEN: I saw one figure, I believe it was one of your studies or
one that you had commissioned, indicating that people on average may spend
as much as $400 more. Where are they going to get that money?

GILLIGAN: Well, you know, there`s lots of green chutes in the
economy. Certainly, growth has been sluggish and unemployment is too high,
but this year the stock market is up, real estate prices are back up again.
So, there`s plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic, and we know that
consumers do like to shop and spend in the holiday season.

What we`re calling out, though, is to ask consumers to think about
allocating some of their shopping holiday budget for small businesses, and,
in fact, tomorrow is Small Business Saturday. For the fourth time in a
row, American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP) is really pleased to be the
founding sponsor of a movement to get Americans to think about shopping
small, particularly tomorrow.

MATHISEN: Yes, I think that`s a very interesting and laudable
initiative that you guys have gotten behind. What is the traction that
you`re seeing as a result of that? I live in a nice small town in New
Jersey, I love to go into my local shops and shop local.

GILLIGAN: You know, it`s undeniable how important small businesses
are to the U.S. economy. Twenty-eight million small businesses exist in
the U.S. today. Half of private sector employment is contributed to by
small businesses, and if you go back 20 years, two-thirds of all job
creation has been done by small businesses. But sometimes they can get
lost in the holiday shuffle.

So, you know, there`s always been Black Friday for the — you know,
big retailers and Cyber Monday for the dotcoms. But starting in 2010, we
created this event called Small Business Saturday, that`s now far bigger
than American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP).

We have a coalition of 100 companies, 1,500 communities around the
U.S., where people are committed to shopping small. Last year, over a
million Americans shopped small and spent about $5.5 billion at small,
locally owned merchants around the U.S., and we`re thinking tomorrow`s
going to be even bigger.

MATHISEN: Well, let me broaden out the conversation if I might, Mr.
Gilligan, just a little bit, and get you to talk about American Express`s
business more broadly. What segments of the business are performing
particularly well this year, and which would you like to see perform even
better, where do you need to do some work?

GILLIGAN: Well, you know, we`re really pleased with the progress and
momentum that we have. In the third quarter, spending on American express
cards around the world was growing at 8 percent, and in the third quarter,
we saw every region of the world, from U.S. to Asia, to Latin America, to
Europe, all tick upwards a bit, so we feel like we`re doing a good job of
executing our growth strategy and outgrowing our competition.

And it comes from having strong value propositions and our card
products for consumers, small businesses, corporations, from signing more
merchants to accept the card, by having new partners around the world that
help us grow our business, and through a lot of digital innovation that
we`re doing.

MATHISEN: Mr. Gilligan, thank you very much. And I have to say that
every time I spend something on my American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP)
card, miraculously, you guys get it right, I get billed for it. Way to go.

GILLIGAN: Thank you very much, Tyler.

MATHISEN: Mr. Gilligan, thank you very much.

Ed Gilligan is the president at American Express (NYSE:EXPR)
(NYSE:AXP).

I wish they`d screw up every now and then, but they just don`t.

All right. So, we`ve seen how strong sales have been at some popular
retailers, but how have some of those companies performed for their
investors? It turns out the results have been pretty good.

Dominic Chu has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOMINIC CHU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Retail stocks become a focus for many investors simply because everyone is
out shopping. Between Black Friday and the end of the year over the last
three years, the S&P 500 consumer discretionary stocks have returned an
average of nearly 4 percent each season.

One area in particular has produced outsized returns, and it`s all
about the bling. Stocks tied to the world of jewelry have been sparkling
and shining.

Take a look at online jeweler Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE). Over the past
three years between Black Friday and year end, the stock has been up around
16 percent each time.

Then, there`s the bricks and mortar side of the jewelry business.
Zales is up nearly 19 percent.

And for all you watch fans out there — it`s Movado, which is up an
average of 19 percent each of the last three seasons. Some market
optimists think consumer spending will continue to help power retail stocks
into the year end.

MICHAEL HOLLAND, HOLLAND & CO. CHAIRMAN: Early indications are we`re
going to have a very good holiday season. The stocks have moved up over
the past year, along with a lot of other stocks, very reasonably valued. I
think the surprise for both the consumer and for the stocks will be to the
upside.

CHU: While many retail stocks do well during the holiday shopping
season, there are no sure things. As with each holiday season, the heavy
discounting could have an adverse effect on profit margins, and while that
is a concern, some experts believe retail companies are well-prepared.

DANA TELSEY, TELSEY ADVISORY GROUP CEO: I think the different
tranches of deals that companies are going towards in order to protect
their margins.

CHU: So, now that Black Friday is just about over, sit back, relax,
and take a look at your investment portfolio. You might find some great
deals out there.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Dominic Chu.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And coming up, our market monitor says dividend plays will
be back in favor next year, and he`ll tell us why.

But, first, the best and worst this month on the Dow and S&P 500.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: Archer Daniels Midland proposed $3 million bid to take over
the Grain Corp. was blocked by Australia, and that is where we begin
tonight`s “Market Focus”.

The American food giant already owns a 20 percent stake in Australia`s
Grain Corp but it offered to buy out the whole company last year.
Australia`s treasurer, though, blocked the proposal over concerns the
merger would reduce competition and hurt growers. That sent shares of ADM
tumbling down nearly 3 percent to $40.30.

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has agreed to sell a quarter of its stake in an
Iraqi oil project. The PetroChina, the project is expected to rival some
of the biggest sources of oil. It`s one of several large fields at western
companies agreed to help Iraq develop in 2010. A lot of Chinese oil
companies like PetroChina have been shopping overseas to expand their
production. Shares of Exxon off just a fraction, though, $93.49.

Shares of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) popped after a
showed Cyber Monday maybe very promising this time around. The Nielsen
Poll found that 85 percent of participants plan to skip Black Friday and
nearly half will shop online during the Internet`s discount offer day,
Cyber Monday. That is a 30 percent boost from just last year. EBay rose
more than 2 1/2 percent to $50.66, while Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) rose almost 2
percent to $393.73.

And investors bought up shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX)
today after analysts put some positive research on the drug maker. The
report from Analyst`s Corner noted Vertex recent sale of the rights to a
hepatitis C drug to Janssen Pharmaceuticals, the stock up a dollar to
$69.38.

Our market monitor this week says the market will continue its record
run higher, adding another 5 percent to 7 percent on both the Dow and the
S&P 500 from here.

He`s Jim Lowell, chief investment officer at Adviser Investments.

Mr. Lowell, welcome.

Make your case for why you see stocks going higher, even after such a
big run-up in 2013.

JIM LOWELL, ADVISER INVESTMENTS CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER: Well,
before I make that case, let me just say that after heaping the gains this
year, I wouldn`t be surprised to see the market take an immediate diet of 5
percent or so. But the reality is there`s no negative news, no negative
data, either in terms of earnings or economic reports that we`re seeing,
especially here in our consumer-driven economy, that has us thinking that
somehow this market is going to be significantly derailed over the next
month, quarter, really throughout next year.

We see the possibility of gaining ground, albeit with some slips along
the way.

MATHISEN: There are still some Washington issues out there, Jim.
Obviously, a new Fed chief. There`s another debt ceiling debate. There`s
going to be another continuing resolution.

Could those things cause the market to stumble or anything more than a
temporary way?

LOWELL: I doubt it could be anything more than a temporary way. We
do have the Yellen safety net, which means stimulus remains the rule, not
the exception. That`s good news for the marketplace overall.

That said, we know that Washington, D.C. has a nasty habit of throwing
a monkey wrench into the financial engine. But the markets already had
object lessons about why it shouldn`t price the missteps into itself.

MATHISEN: You know, it`s been a great year for NASDAQ. It`s been a
great year for the smaller stocks, the Russell 2000. But your picks are
all large cap sort of baseline kinds of companies, beginning with Ford.

Why do you think these kinds of companies will outperform and take us
through your argument for Ford?

LOWELL: Well, I think overall we`re a little bit nervous about the
small and mid-cap names that have clearly led the charge this year in
particular, and certainly momentum oriented stocks we`re something a little
bit leery of.

When you look at Ford, it`s just not a pure play on its numbers. It`s
certainly reasonably valued. It`s got a good dividend yield, 2.35 percent,
but it is up 30-plus percent year to date. It`s a play on the U.S.
consumer and the housing recovery, only an architect drives on to a
construction site in a Prius, so we know they are selling their trucks at
fairly good clips here at home.

But there`s also a nice play for Ford globally, and in particularly,
inside the eurozone, which pretty much, everyone has written off especially
from a car sales perspective. You`ve begun to see a turn towards the
better there. They can clearly capitalize down the road.

MATHISEN: All right. Lightning round time. You`ve got two more
picks, one is Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), explain why.

LOWELL: Well, I`m not going to bet against the U.S. consumer, nor the
global one. I get everything from Kenley for my fireplace, Fiji water, to
my rare books from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). So I think that trend continues.
They also are continuing to innovate. They`ve done a beta test with Sunday
sales.

I expect we`ll see Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) being a net benefit, not just
a big box store, but also for small businesses that can put their products
in their pipeline.

MATHISEN: And speaking of big box stores, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is
your third and final choice.

LOWELL: Can`t swing a hammer without looking at Home Depot (NYSE:HD),
or Lowe`s for that matter. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) yielding 1.8 to 1 percent.
It certainly seems to be a grower, not just now, but throughout next year.

The reality is that if you bought a new home, if you are looking to
maybe upgrade your home to sell it in the spring selling season next year,
or just moved into an apartment, chances are you`re going to be going to
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) to get something to hang on the walls or build the
wall it.

MATHISEN: You have any disclosers about these three stocks that you
mentioned?

LOWELL: Well, they are certainly inside of some of the mutual funds
and exchange trade funds that we own for our clients and adviser
investments, and so far, I`m thankful that they are.

MATHISEN: All right. Jim Lowell, thank you very much.

Jim is chief investment officer at Adviser Investments.

Well, like retailers for shopping, `tis the make or break season for
nonprofit fundraising. And, increasingly, campaigns are moving online to
win support.

Hampton Pearson takes a look now at how charities are using
crowdfunding to raise money.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
The nonprofit Warrior Canine Connection had an idea, to breed and train
service dogs to be paired with injured veterans. But like any start-up,
not a lot of money.

Then the cofounder Molly Morelli had a brainstorm. Why not a puppy
cam on the Internet in search of fellow pet lovers who might also want to
help wounded warriors?

MOLLY MORELLI, WARRIOR CANINE CONNECTION CO-FOUNDER: I launched my
own little puppy cam, and shortly after that, a large foundation picked us
up and started broadcasting it.

PEARSON: They got a $150,000 grant from the Annenberg Foundation and
primetime exposure for their puppy cam on Explore.org and its Dog Bless You
website, a nirvana for dog owners with 24/7 streaming video and snapshots.

For the Warrior Canine Connection, it was a lifeline. Having found
their target audience online, it was a natural next step to focus on
fundraising, and their introduction to crowdfunding.

(on camera): First of all, charity is like the Warrior Canine
Connection, crowdfunding levels the playing field in pursuit of the biggest
crowd of donors of all, people on the Internet.

(voice-over): In less than a year, the group raised more than
$168,000 from 1,559 donors through campaigns using the Crowdrise platform,
twice what was raised through traditional efforts.

MORELLI: Our organization is now pretty much nationally known,
whereas, you know, prior to starting this, we were lucky to be known in our
own town.

PEARSON: Crowdfunding sites like Fundly, Indiegogo, and Cause Vox let
nonprofits create their own fundraising sites at low cost, $2.4 billion a
year, crowdfunding is a small slice of the more than $300 billion in total
charitable contributions, but one with a potential to increase giving from
the 2 percent of GDP it`s been for a decades.

CORY SWITZER, CHRONICLE OF PHILANTROPHY WEB EDITOR: Crowdfunding is a
great way for nonprofits to get younger donors involved at a small amount
and show their results directly.

PEARSON: Even the established players are now in the crowdfunding
game. Salvation`s Army online kettle bell ringing added $2 million last
year, a drop in the bucket that totals on $150 million in the traditional
pot.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And to read more about crowdfunding for charity, head to
our Web site, NBR.com.

And up next, banks taking steps to educate their customers, but first,
a look at how commodities, treasuries, and currencies fared today. Gold
finishing with its worst November since 1978.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: Almost everyone agrees that America has a financial
literacy deficit, but fewer agree how to address it. More and more
financial companies are trying, but they still spend more on brand
awareness than they do on consumer education.

Kayla Tausche has our story tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Amid the bills and catalogs, a familiar piece of mail, Citigroup (NYSE:C),
American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP), Discover, Chase, saying act now
and be approved for this one-time credit card offer. Those letters and
banks commercials, billboards, stadium signs and Internet ads cost the
industry $17 billion a year. A new study from the Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau says for every dollar spent on literacy, $25 is spent on
banks-owned brand, a staggering disparity in resources.

RICHARD CORDRAY, CFPB DIRECTOR: We need to promote informed financial
decision making.

TAUSCHE: Director Rich Cordray said this means, quote, “The majority
of information consumers receive about financial products comes from a
company trying to sell them something. Cordray they said they lack
unbiased information and as they are flooded with offers. The bulk of
those offers, credit cards, netting seven times more of a bank`s
advertising budget than mortgages, 20 times more than savings accounts.

(on camera): And that`s just awareness. That doesn`t even count the
pesky direct mail that the CFPB says costs the industry an additional $2.64
billion.

(voice-over): Slowly but surely, banks are taking the hint. Wells
Fargo (NYSE:WFC) recently installed a financial education portal for
consumers to find answers to frequently asked questions. JPMorgan
(NYSE:JPM) Chase has a financial education library. Bank of America
(NYSE:BAC), which has the largest U.S. customer base commissioned its own
study worth 78 percent of respondents said learning about personal finance
is hard.

Now, the banks try to make that a bit easier, setting up the first
direct to consumer financial education platform. No mention of its own
products and digital educator Sal Khan of the renowned Khan Academy as a
partner. The results? Bettermoneyhabits.com, where a video series walks
through everything from adjustable rate mortgages, to tax deductions, and
everyday lessons often forgotten — small steps for an industry failing the
grade on financial literacy, consumers still have to do their homework.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: It is rivalry weekend in college football, so that means
millions of people will be glued to their TV sets.

But as Jane Wells tells us, one legendary coach is hoping to change
the way fans watch — using what`s known as a second-screen strategy.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAP)

BARRY SWITZER, LEGENDARY FOOTBALL COACH: Run the pistol on them.

JANE WELLS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): No
one knows Oklahoma football —

SWITZER: Release it out of the back field.

WELLS: None loves Oklahoma football —

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Barry Switzer is in the house.

WELLS: — like Barry Switzer. The legendary coach now has a plan to
profit from Oklahoma football through a venture called Coaches Cabana.

SWITZER: Actually, be in a setting like a reality show, watching the
game in my home with me, but it`s interactive with an audience outside my
home, which is really neat and that`s what the sponsors like.

WELLS (on camera): Coaches Cabana works like a second screen, you
watch Oklahoma football on TV, you listen to Switzer`s commentary online.
And since he never actually shows you the game, he doesn`t have to pay for
the rights to it.

So has the NCAA said anything to him about this?

SWITZER: I didn`t even call when I worked for them. I mean, I know
what the answer`s going to be, no, no, I`d rather ask for forgiveness,
Jane.

WELLS (voice-over): Last season, Switzer said his second screen
coverage of the Cotton Bowl got 30,000 viewers and several thousand tweets.
This season, Coaches Cabana has gone to more teams and more coaches, and
advertisers are starting to sign on.

SWITZER: I think I`ll take a drink of Diet Coke and you can tweet me
and interact with me at the same time, and you watch. You don`t have to
watch someone on network television do the color who`s never covered a
kickoff or brought one back, understand, girl?

WELLS: The entire enterprise is a somewhat chaotic rocky work in
progress, but it`s not costing very much. Switzer thinks with the right
former coaches and the right rabid fan bases, his second screen experiment
could expand to 30 schools. The only drawback —

SWITZER: I can`t drink doing this in the ball game. I like to have a
beer every once in awhile.

WELLS: Especially in his own home.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jane Wells.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And that will do it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for this
evening. I`m Tyler Mathisen.

Susie Gharib will rejoin us Monday. In the meantime, have a great
weekend, everybody.

END

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