Transcript: Thursday, October 17, 2013

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you in part by —

(COMMERCIAL AD)

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: All time high. The
S&P 500 closes at a record, the NASDAQ climbs to a 13-year high. But for
investors, what does the road ahead look like as the focus now returns to
earnings and fundamentals?

SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: China reacts. The day
after Washington struck a deal, our biggest creditor made it clear it isn`t
happy. But is there any chance China will fall out of love with U.S.
treasuries?

MATHISEN: And, ga-ga for Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). I big beat one of the
widely held stocks sends shares to a new high after-hours. And we found
the one thing in the earnings report that every investor needs to know
about.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday,
October 17th.

GHARIB: Good evening, everyone.

Washington was open and back to business today, and Wall Street
celebrated big time. The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high, the NASDAQ
is now sitting at a fresh 13-year high. And there were more milestones.
The Dow transport, the small cap Russell 2000 and S&P 400 MidCap indexes
all ending at record closes.

With the budget and debt ceiling deals wrapped up, investors focused
on fundamentals. A rush of corporate earners, some better than others,
along with stronger than expected manufacturing data from the Philadelphia
Federal Reserve Bank. We`ll have more on those earnings in just a few
minutes.

But, first, here are the closing numbers. The Dow was the only index
in the red. It lost two points, dragged down by disappointing earnings by
three components, IBM, United Health Care and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). The
NASDAQ rose 23, the S&P added 11 points to 1,733. That`s its new record
close.

MATHISEN: And so, was yesterday`s deal in Washington, all clear for
the markets or something far, far less?

Joining us now to discuss the way forward for investors like you is
Nick Colas. He`s chief market strategist at Convergex.

You know, Nick, I`ve been calling this the sort of resolution rally
that we`ve been in for the most part over the past week, and continuing to
today when you had 23 of the 30 Dow components actually higher and those
three that Susie just mentioned, the reason why it was down.

So, do you think this resolution rally can continue? Do you think the
markets are going to end the year higher than they are today? And if so,
why or why not?

NICK COLAS, CONVERGEX CHIEF MARKET ANALYST: Absolutely. You`re right
to call it a resolution rally. It was a very nice liftoff after we got the
good news yesterday. What`s even more remarkable, though, is that stocks
really didn`t sell off very much during the turmoil in Washington. They
accurately forecast that we`re going to get a resolution and this rally
today is really a follow-through.

Looking forward, I`m very optimistic about stocks for the balance of
the year. We do have several things in our favor. Corporate earnings are
still quite strong even though revenue growth isn`t where we want to be,
and at the same time, we still have very variable interest rates and we
have, hopefully, a recovering consumer and economy now that this turmoil
has past.

GHARIB: But, you know, Nick, you mentioned about earnings. A number
of analysts are saying that for this upcoming current quarter, there are
going to be a lot of blame put on this government shutdown. So, what`s the
spillover effect for 2014 and what does it mean for stocks?

COLAS: Yes, there`s a very interesting intersection going forward, as
we look at January when the next beginning — the next version of the
current crisis is going to play over again. The critical junction is going
to be Christmas and holiday season in 2013. The consumer was a bit shaken
by what happened in Washington and confidence fell.

Now, we need to see a resurgence of consumer confidence going into
holiday season. That`s really the make or break issue for the markets
going into the first quarter of next year.

MATHISEN: I heard someone describe the market this year as a Teflon
market, nothing seems to derail it. What could?

COLAS: What is really the critical junction here is that even though
earnings have been quite strong, we`re going to see record earnings on the
S&P to match these record levels that we saw today, as we see the third
quarter reported. However, the revenue growth has been quite sluggish,
really flat over the last four quarters, no better than 1 percent or 2
percent.

To really get markets enthusiastic about 2014, we need to see revenue
growth begin to take off, and that`s really 100 percent on the come. It`s
a faith trade. We have to see the faith transit into actually numbers come
Q4.

GHARIB: So, Nick, you mentioned that we`re going to be back into this
crisis mode in a few more months. So, what do investors do? Do they need
like a two-face investment strategy, pre-crisis investing and post-crisis
investing over the next six months?

COLAS: You know, investors are still, as I talk to institutional
clients of Convergex, still very scared by the events of 2007 and 2008. No
one is really taking as much as risk as they did four or five or six years
ago. And that`s to some degree is healthy. It allows us to live through
this turmoil, because e investors aren`t as much over their skis as they
used to be.

So, as long as you maintain a reasonable diversified portfolio and
don`t invest too aggressively, you can live through these little mini-
crises. We saw that happen just in the past couple of weeks when investors
continue to put money to work. We should still see that again in Q1
because now we kind of know the playbook.

MATHISEN: Let`s say I want to put a little bit of money at work.
I`ve got some cash on the sidelines. What two sectors in the U.S. market
would you favor over, let`s say, the next two to three months?

COLAS: Yes, the two sectors, we really like the most, one,
financials. Financials have been a real leadership group. These are banks
and credit card companies, organizations that lend to consumers. Those
should continue to do better as the economy improves and interest rates
stay low.

The second group, which is a little more controversial, is consumer
stocks. We talked about how consumers have been a little shaken by what`s
happened. Holiday season should now have very low expectations that
consumer stocks could bring into beat.

MATHISEN: All right. Nick, thank you very much. I appreciate you
being with us. Nick Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex.

GHARIB: All right. So, we`ve been talking about earnings. Let get
more of the latest earnings.

The biggest drag on the Dow today, tech bellwether IBM. It actually
beat earning estimates after the bell last night as we reported, but the
company reported lower revenue, hurt by weaker computer hardware sales.
So, shares fell 6.5 percent after an analyst downgrade and a handful of
lower price targets on the stock.

The big worry here: the company`s growth strategy, as it focuses more
on software and Cloud services.

MATHISEN: And the second biggest decliner in the blue chip Dow today,
United Healthcare. Profits rose 1 percent last quarter after enrollment
shot up by 275,000. But the company warned of higher operating cost in its
private Medicare business, which will hurt its full year earnings forecast
and shares of the nation`s largest health insurer were down 5 percent
today.

GHARIB: Now, another blow to the Dow today, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).
Shares fell 2.5 percent in its first time reporting as a Dow component.
And now, the investment bank is slashing expenses.

Mary Thompson reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARY THOMPSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Some may call it the curse of the Dow. Others, just a bad quarter. That`s
how Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) CFO Harvey Schwartz described the performance
of the bank`s fixed income trading unit known as FICC.

HARVEY SCHWART, CFO: Clearly, not a good quarter for FICC. The
significant decline in revenues was driven in part by seasonally smaller
activity levels seen across the industry and a more challenging macro
environment.

THOMPSON (on camera): The unit`s revenue plunged 44 percent from last
year`s third quarter, a big reason Goldman`s total revenue missed estimates
by almost $700 million, a miss analyst Roger Freeman is taking in stride.

ROGER FREEMAN, BARCLAYS CAPITAL ANALYST: These things happen. Not
even Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) outperforms every quarter.

THOMPSON (voice-over): Goldman`s earnings beat estimates in the
quarter, coming in at $2.88 a share, as the company slashed operating
expenses by 25 percent. Still, the revenue miss and poor fixed income
performance, pressuring Goldman stock, prompting some to speculate this
comes with being one of the Dow`s three newest members, an honor that some
note becomes a curse.

Since 2004, the nine new members replacing others in the Dow fell 6.1
percent on average in the first month and 10.4 percent in their first year
in the index. We don`t know if a similar fate will befall Goldman, but
portfolio manager Anton Schutz sees the third quarter as a minor blip in
Goldman`s performance, because Goldman`s clients are talking about doing
deals, he sees promise in its future.

ANTON SCHUTZ, MENDON CAPITAL PRESIDENT: I think the pipeline is
robust. So, I think it`s a go forward-looking situation.

THOMPSON: A rare revenue miss puts Goldman in an unfamiliar situation
when it hopes to change this quarter.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Mary Thompson.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And one bright spot among the Dow stocks today was Verizon
(NYSE:VZ). The co-owner and soon-to-be sole owner of the largest U.S.
wireless carrier said its third quarter profits were up 40 percent,
compared with the years ago. Sales rose more than 4 percent to $30.3
billion. The wireless unit fueled the result as customers paid for more
their mobile phone plans.

Shares of Verizon (NYSE:VZ) up 3.5 percent today.

GHARIB: And reporting after the closing bell tonight, Google
(NASDAQ:GOOG), the search giant, reported better than expected results of
$10.74 a share and profits shot up 36 percent to just under $3 billion.
That`s after raising rates for advertisements on smartphones and other
mobile devices.

But the news wasn`t all good, losses at its Motorola mobile phone unit
totaled $248 million. Joining us now from the NASDAQ exchange, Sheila
Dharmarajan.

Sheila, Google`s numbers were obviously strong, as we just reported.
But shares are much higher in late trading. What`s the one takeaway you
see from this report?

SHEILA DHARMARAJAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Yes. You
know, the one takeaway that investors are really getting from Google
(NASDAQ:GOOG) is if there was any concern about the company slowing down or
maybe becoming a little bit more of a mature tech company, pretty much gone
after this very solid third quarter.

So, you mentioned profits, up 36 percent. But let`s take a look at
sales, because that was a huge beat, as well. Up 12 percent to $14.9
billion and also, paid clicks, that`s metric that the street looks very
closely, up 26 percent.

So, all around, a very solid quarter from the company. The one other
chink in the report was that cost per click was down, down about 8 percent.
That`s a trend we`ve been seeing over the past several quarters.

But again, big picture — more and more people are connecting to
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). They`re connecting to the advertising engine online,
all really good news for the company and its growth engine going forward.

GHARIB: And we`ll see how the stock does tomorrow. Thanks so much,
Sheila.

MATHISEN: All right. Still ahead, our biggest creditor is not happy
about the debt deal but is there any chance China will fall out of love
with U.S. treasuries.

First, a look how the international markets closed today.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: The barriers came down at federal memorials, monuments,
national parks, and hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal workers
headed back to their jobs today. That, of course, is because the partial
government shutdown ended after 16 days. Employees who were furloughed or
worked without pay throughout the shut down will get all their back pay in
their next paychecks.

GHARIB: And here is something else that we`ll be seeing, now that the
government is open, lots of reports on the economy. Perhaps the most
important one is the monthly jobs report. You`ll remember that the
September jobs report was never released as scheduled on October 4th
because of the shutdown. But now that Washington is open the Labor
Department announced it will release last month`s payroll report on
Tuesday, October 22nd. So, better late than never.

MATHISEN: And just hours after signing into law the bill that
temporarily ended the budget standoff, the debt limit crisis, President
Obama spoke at the White House today and he took congressional Republicans
to task for shutting down the government and bringing the nation, in his
words, to the brink of default.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American people are
completely fed up with Washington. At a moment when our economic recovery
demands more jobs, more momentum, we got yet, another self-inflicted crisis
that set our economy back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATHISEN: And just today, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) said the impact of the
shutdown and debt ceiling battle will reduce real GDP growth in the current
quarter by a half percentage point. Projected economic growth is now
forecast to be 2 percent in the fourth quarter.

The good news, the bank does predict a slightly higher increase of
growth in the first quarter of next year.

GHARIB: During the battle to fund the government, before it was
partially shutdown, there was a lot of talk for efforts to get a clean
C.R., a congressional resolution or funding bill without any earmark, no
strings attached. But it didn`t quite work out that way in the end.

Eamon Javers has the details.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

EAMON JAVERS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New
Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg was a multi-millionaire when he died
earlier this year. Still, the Senate decided to squeeze in a provision to
the debt ceiling bill granting his family $174,000 benefit. That wasn`t
the only unusual item in the bill. Tucked into the fine print was $450
million for flood relief in Colorado and there was a $2.4 billion grant to
the Veterans Administration to help handle a massive claims backlog.

But, by far, the most controversial provision is one critics are
already calling the Kentucky kickback, a dam project on the Ohio River that
benefits Illinois and Kentucky, which just happens to be the home state of
senator Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who negotiated the last-minute
deal, although there is some dispute about who actually tucked the dam
provision into the bill.

STEVE ELLIS, TAXPAYERS FOR COMMON SENSE: This is going to feed
criticism about the process, if that is even possible to make it worse.

JAVERS: Critics hate the side deals.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: When they snuck in something like
this, it makes me just cringe. You know, why do it? It leaves a bad taste
in your mouth.

JAVERS (on camera): But some argue that those special projects
dreamed up here in the halls of Congress are actually the grease that makes
legislative deal making possible, and, of course, all those people who
benefit from the spending, well, they always think it`s a good idea.

(voice-over): And in the meantime, taxpayers near the Ohio River will
have a brand-new water project to admire at a cost of up to $2.9 billion.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Eamon Javers in Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: So, now that the deadlock in Washington has been broken,
but a lot of damage already done, how do average Americans view the
temporary deal to fund the government and the performance of our elected
leaders, take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don`t think anything will change when it comes
to January. I think they haven`t done anything other than just simply
delay it again.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need to boot all of the people out and start
over in Washington.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We do more for everybody in the world than any
other country, and yet, we can`t get things, you know, going straight here
at home for ourselves.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m Canadian. So it`s a joke to me. It`s really
funny to watch it from a far.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It just seems our government ought to be able to
get along and, you know, resolve these issues and it ridiculous.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I`m fed up but this is my country. So, I just
keep hoping that things improve.

(END VIDEO CLIPS)

GHARIB: And here is what the International Monetary Funds managing
director Christine Lagarde had to say about the debt crisis. She welcomed
the bill to avert a U.S. debt default but said the U.S. economy needs more
stable, long-term solutions to raising the nation`s borrowing limit, not
temporary fixes.

Lagarde said, quote, “I hope the current situation is bad enough that
people realize it cannot continue,” end quote.

MATHISEN: So, what does China, the world`s biggest holder of U.S.
debt and America`s biggest critic, think about the short-term deal signed
into law last night?

As Michelle Caruso-Cabrera tells us, the Chinese are not impressed.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHELLE CARUSO-CABRERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-
over): Within hours of President Obama signing the deal into law, a
scathing editorial, the second in the week, published by a government-
backed news agency in China. It said, quote, “Politicians in Washington
had done nothing substantial but postponing once again the final bankruptcy
of global confidence in the U.S. financial system.”

DAVID GORDON, EURASIA GROUP HEAD OF RESEARCH: I think the Chinese are
frustrated at the United States. They have a lot invested in the United
States.

CARUSO-CABRERA: Nearly $1.3 trillion worth held in the form of U.S.
government bonds. China is the largest foreign owner of U.S. government
debt and if those bonds fall in value, China suffers financially.

In addition to the negative commentary, a Chinese rating agency also
backed by the government downgraded U.S. debt today saying, quote, “The
latest raise of the debt ceiling shows the government`s incapability in
improving solvency by improving the basic economic and fiscal elements.

JOHN RUTLEDGE, RUTLEDGE CAPITAL CHAIRMAN: They in 1995 pegged their
currency to the dollar thinking the dollar was a stable anchor. They now
lost faith that the dollar is a stable anchor.

CARUSO-CABRERA (on camera): There are fears the Chinese could sell a
large number of their U.S. treasuries, which could push U.S. interest rates
sharply higher. But those fears are unfounded says John Rutledge of
Rutledge Capital.

RUTLEDGE: If the Chinese sold a lot of it to someone else, it would
push the price down, that`s not really in anybody`s interest.

CARUSO-CABRERA (voice-over): They also don`t have many choices when
it comes to investing large amounts of money. Other countries just don`t
have enough debt for the Chinese to buy.

GORDON: Part of their frustration is they don`t have a real easy
alternative strategy for doing well in the world, other than holding U.S.
financial assets and wanting to collaborate with the United States.

CARUSO-CABRERA: Still, it`s clear they are trying to find
alternatives.

RUTLEDGE: I`ve had private conversation with Chinese leaders where
our instability in terms of bailouts, QE, the budget deficit, is really of
grave concern to the Chinese.

CARUSO-CABRERA: Concerns which could impact the U.S. financially.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Michelle Caruso-Cabrera.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: So what does all this mean for the U.S. economy?

Joining us now with his analysis, Simon Johnson. He`s former chief
economist at the International Monetary Fund, and currently, a professor of
economics at MIT.

Simon, so good to see you again.

SIMON JOHNSON, MIT PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS: Thanks for having me.

GHARIB: So, Simon, you heard what President Obama said just a moment
ago on our program that this whole crisis set our economy back. Do you
agree with that? And if so, what`s it going to take? How long is it going
to take for the economy to bounce back?

JOHNSON: Well, unfortunately, I agree completely. The amount of
uncertainty that was created will turn out to depress growth, reduce job
creation, not just this quarter but I fear also for the first quarter of
next year.

MATHISEN: So, Simon, let me talk about the international response
that Michelle Caruso-Cabrera was just talking about, China being one but
only one player in the world of international finance. Last night, Mohamed
El-Erian of PIMCO said that if we keep doing this kind of lurching from
crisis to crisis, eventually, other countries, other players are going to
build pipes around us. Do you agree with that?

JOHNSON: Well, I certainly agree with Mohamed that investors around
the world are looking with shock and horror at our political behavior over
the past week or so, and it is absolutely in the interest of China to
develop a large, robust offshore renminbi market and the British said they
would be happy to help the Chinese do that in London.

So, to be sure, we should expect people to diversify away from the
dollar in part because we have demonstrated repeated irresponsibility, and
given every indication that we`re going to go even further in the crazy
direction early next year.

GHARIB: Well, our economy, our businesses depend on the mighty
American dollar. What are you saying exactly for the future?

JOHNSON: Well, obviously, in the short term the dollar remains the
primary reserve currency in the outstanding safe haven, believe it or not,
around the world. The question is what happens one, two, five years down
the road? How quickly can portfolios shift? How fast does the euros
rebound or the renminbi rise as a viable alternative to the dollar?

The pressure is there. We should recognize that we have no birthright
that says the dollar is number one currency forever. We built up that
reputation, good reputation over a long period of time, 200 years I would
argue, and we`ve squandered it over, what, two, three, five years? It`s
really appalling.

MATHISEN: You know, as we look now back at the debt crisis, going up
against the debt ceiling for the now second time in a little more than two
years, I wonder if you feel at some point if we run head long once again
towards this cliff, that at some point, we`re going to slip and actually go
through that debt ceiling and have either in technical terms or real terms
a default. Do you think that`s going to happen?

JOHNSON: Yes, absolutely. Look, the games that have been played are
playing with fire. It`s extremely dangerous. You don`t want to pretend or
say or even perhaps mean to go up to a debt default situation or go beyond
that and see what happens.

That is not how reasonable countries behave, and if we continue to
have this kind of absolutely pointless confrontation over the debt ceiling
for example but also the government shutdown, what did that accomplish?
Nothing but makes us look unstable in the eyes of our own consumers, our
own investors and, of course, everyone around the world.

GHARIB: Simon, here`s another “what if` question — during this whole
crisis, there were a lot of warnings the U.S. economy could slip into
recession. What about now? Are we still at risk of a recession or are we
in a clear?

JOHNSON: Well, I don`t think this is going to precipitate a recession
but for sure, we lose perhaps half a percentage point of growth in the
fourth quarter. I would worry much more about beginning of next year. If
we have a confrontation in January, February, March or all of the above,
that will really hurt us and depending on what goes on around the world, I
would not be optimistic about our growth prospects.

GHARIB: All right. Sorry to leave it on such a down beat note, but
we have to leave it there.

Thank you so much, Simon. Simon Johnson, professor of economics at
MIT.

And coming up, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) soaring this year,
and its profits are heating up. We`ll have details next.

But, first, how commodities, currencies and treasuries performed
today.

(MUSIC)

GHARIB: Federal prosecutors are closer to an agreement with hedge
fund billionaire Steven A. Cohen and his SAC Capital Advisors on charges of
insider trading. The proposed deal which could be wrapped up by the end of
the month involves paying a penalty of at least $1 billion to settle a
criminal complaint. But prosecutors will give the firm credit after it
already agreed to pay more than 600 million to settle similar civil charges
earlier this year.

Tyler?

MATHISEN: And we begin market focus tonight with a company that`s
heating up after the close, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG). The food
chain reporting a rise in profit, driven by higher customer traffic — that
always helps — offset — that higher traffic rising food costs. Now, the
restaurant expects full year, same store sales to rise in the mid-single
digit range, that`s slightly above its prior view and the stock took off
after the close, finishing the regular session only fractionally higher at
$439.07. But you see the jump after 4:00 p.m.

SuperValu (NYSE:SVU) supermarket chain reported earnings that beat
Wall Street estimates. The company sold more than half of its stores
earlier this year which helped lower operating cost and improved
performance. Profits came in 2 cents higher than expectations. The
chain`s revenue also beat forecasts. Despite the good news, the stock did
close almost 4 percent to $8.07.

GHARIB: Shares of Select Comfort (NASDAQ:SCSS) tumbled after the
company reported earnings that were well-below estimates. The mattress
maker blamed higher costs and weak demand. It also cut its full year
outlook because of the uncertain economy. The stock fell 21 1/2 percent to
$18.99.

It also sent its competitors lower. Tempur Sealy (NYSE:ZZ) shares
closed almost 3 percent lower and shares of Mattress Firm down 4 percent.

And Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) losing more than half of its value after an
FDA panel voted against expanded use of one of its key drug. The committee
said that a study should be completed on the drug`s ability to benefit the
heart. The FDA is not bound by a panel recommendation and a decision is
scheduled for late December, rather. The stock plummeted 61 percent to $2
a share.

And, finally tonight, how would you like to own a piece of your own
pro athlete? Well, a company called Fan Text is launching an all new
marketplace that allows sports fans the chance to bet on the money-making
potential and value of professional athletes. The company filed papers
today to begin selling stock to the public in Houston. Texans running back
Arian Foster proposing that investors are really buying a stake in his
future income.

So, here is how it`s supposed to work: Fan Text pays Foster $10
million in return for 20 percent of his remaining contract with the NFL.
Any endorsement deals and other future income tied to his football career.
Fan Text is negotiating similar deals with other super star athletes but
won`t say who they are.

Are you a buyer?

MATHISEN: I don`t think I would invest when someone`s ACL ligament or
maybe a — oh, something nasty could happen to this guy. I would not do
that.

GHARIB: Even short —

MATHISEN: Maybe I`d short it. Maybe I`d short it.

GHARIB: That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Susie
Gharib. Thanks for watching.

MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a great evening, everybody.
We hope to see you back here tomorrow night.

END

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